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Koniec írskeho zázraku

Pred tromi rokmi sa Írsko prezentovalo ako ekonomický zázrak založený na neoliberálnej politike nízkeho zdanenia firiem a voľnej bankovej regulácie. Dnes sa zázrak rozplynul. Relatívne vysoký rast sa zastavil. Realitný sektor, poháňaný narastajúcim dlhom, rapídne narastal a ceny nehnuteľností ozlomkrky stúpali. Írske banky sa spoliehali na veľký prílev kapitálu a bezstarostne vydávali úvery. Pokiaľ verejný dlh bol relatívne malý, tak súkromný dlh dosiahol rekordné hodnoty.

Globálna kríza, ktorá sa začala v Spojených štátoch a vo Veľkej Británii, obnažila pochybné základy írskeho zázraku a praskla finančnú bublinu. Po páde Lehman Brothers v USA írska vláda ku koncu septembra 2008 spanikárila a vyhlásila veľkorysé ručenie za bankové vklady a prednostné dlhy bánk. Nezdravé banky, ktorých sa to týkalo, sa úplne alebo čiastočne znárodnili. Ich dlhy sa „socializovali“ – zaplatia ich všetci daňovníci.

Medzičasom vyšiel najavo skutočný rozsah strát. Kvôli záchranným balíčkom pre banky dosiahne tento rok deficit verejných financií podľa odhadov 32 % HDP. Írsko má najrýchlejšie rastúci verejný dlh v EÚ. Narastajúci verejný dlh má však svoje korene v minulej prílišnej expanzii finančného sektora a vo zväčšujúcim sa súkromnom dlhu vrátane zadlženosti domácností.

Vláda, ktorá je úzko prepojená na finančný sektor, zareagovala prijatím veľmi krutých úsporných opatrení vrátane 15 % zníženia platov vo verejnom sektore. Táto liečba však chorobu nelieči, ale ju zhoršuje. Írske hospodárstvo sa scvrkáva. Nezamestnanosť rapídne narastá. Tak sa bremeno dlhov stáva čoraz ťažším. Súkromní dlžníci majú viac a viac problémov splácať svoje dlhy. Írske banky čelia veľkým problémom pri refinancovaní svojich dlhov. V čoraz väčšej miere závisia od úverov z ECB.

Hospodárska kríza je v Írsku horšia než v Grécku. Celková dlhová zaťaženosť v Írsku je podstatne vyššia ako v Grécku, práve pre enormné súkromné dlhy. Oblasti, ktoré boli kľúčové pre írsky rast v nedávnej minulosti – finančný a realitný sektor – sa doslova topia v dlhoch. Grécko už požiadalo o pomoc EÚ, ktorá bola poskytnutá po dlhom váhaní a za ťažkých podmienok. Teraz nemecká a niektoré ďalšie európske vlády tlačia na Írsko, aby požiadalo EÚ o pomoc, pretože ich vlastné banky sú značne zainteresované v Írsku a južnej Európe a obávajú sa „šírenia nákazy“.

Írske banky, firmy, verejné inštitúcie a ďalší dlžníci dlhujú nemeckým bankám 149 miliárd dolárov a britským bankám 138 miliárd dolárov. Záchranný balíček pre Írsko by bol de facto záchranným balíčkom pre zahraničné banky. Takýto balíček by bol spojený so škrtiacimi podmienkami pre rozpočtovú politiku Írska.

Priestor Írska pre vlastnú politiku by bol zredukovaný na nulu. Toto je jeden z dôvodov, prečo írska vláda váha požiadať o pomoc. Druhým dôvodom je, že v predčasných voľbách vládne strany pravdepodobne prehrajú, ak otvorene priznajú totálne zlyhanie svojej hospodárskej politiky. Politická kríza by tak mohla nasledovať krízu hospodársku.

Írsko potrebuje pomoc. Lenže pomocný balíček by mal pomôcť Írsku vyjsť z recesie, namiesto toho, aby ju prehĺbil. Na dôvažok sa zdá, že redukcia prílišného súkromného zadlženia je nevyhnutná. A to by znamenalo, že na stratách by sa mali podieľať aj zahraničné banky.

Článok dnes vychádza aj v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (309)

  • j@p 19.11.2010 12:37

    socializovali = zospoločenštili…

  • PeterS 21.11.2010 21:23

    “Dnes sa zázrak rozplynul”

    Nerozplynul, ved u nas chceme tiez skrtat a setrit. Mozno nie tak drasticky ako v Irsku, ale tiez ideme priskrtit hospodarstvo.

  • Lucy 22.11.2010 8:28

    Suhlasim Miklos vedie tento stat irskou cestou a som zvedava, po nasom odmietnuti pomoci Irsku, co spravi EU, ked nas Miklos a spol dovedu tam, kde je v sucasnosti Irsko – lebo nic ine nas po ich hlupej restriktivnej politike a dalsom zadlzovani ( lebo mozeme cakat len dalsi pokles prijmov do st. rozpoctu) nas necaka.

  • PeterS 22.11.2010 13:02

    Lucy

    Vzdy sme mali stastie na osoby so schematickym pristupom na jednej strane a na dav tlieskajucich uzitocnych idiotov na strane druhej. Mozno viac nez by sa patrilo.
    Snad to zacalo uz schematickym Benesom po vojne, ktory schematicky vyriesil mensiny a “narodnodemokraticku revoluciu” odovzdal komunistom, Bacilkom a spol. po prevrate, ktory zaviedli schematicky sovietizums so stalinizmom, atd. pokracujuc Klausom, ktory schematicky zaviedol Washingtonsky konsenzus a dostal nas vsetkych na kolena (paradoxne prave vtedy, kde vo FZ prijimali zaklady 30% padu, SNS dostavala pred starou budovou NR na kolena hejslovakov vdaka pomlcke, ci co to bolo… pekne krytie), a delej k Miklosovi, ktory schematicky pritahoval manufakturne vyroby az po dnesok, co sa da charakterizovat ako europska mestiacka revolucia setrenia a protikuropcneho boja. Cize taky novodoby mestaicky purizmus.

    Lenze nie je setrenie ako setrenie. Pokial nemusime sanovat banky a zabezpecime v EU, aby z nasich bank neodtekal kapital do matiek, ktore poziciavaju nase peniaze svojim domacim vladam, tak rozpoctovy deficit mozeme odfinancovat hospodarskym rastom, ktory sa da stimulovat do hranice, aby bola vyrovnana obchodna bilancia. Rastove stimuly napr. na dialnice sa vratia z poplatkov a pokial sa tieto peniaze aj rozleju v ekonomike a budu tlacit na spotrebu a teda dovoz, tak pokial sa udrzi aj vyvoz, veci mozu zostat v rovnovahe.

    Proste, je to zas a opet schematizmus, pretoze nasa situacia nie je podobna Grecku, ci Irsku a hrozba takejto situacie vznika jedine zo statnych zavezkov voci socialnym a zdravotnym nakladom.

  • Menej takýchto inžinierov ekonómie | Blog JeToTak.sk 24.11.2010 7:51

    [...] Írska za príklad Slovensku a obhajovali ním svoje reformy? Zdalo by sa vám logické, že po konci írskeho zázraku svoj postoj prehodnotia, alebo budú aspoň takticky [...]

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