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Menej takýchto inžinierov ekonómie

Tak takto to vyzerá, keď sa niekto osvieži rosou z Tullamore a preloží to zopár pintami Guinnessu. Ale vážne, ak aj nepísal svoj komentár Anton Marcinčin pod vplyvom omamných nápojov zo zeleného ostrova, tak sa mi nechce veriť, že by ho mohol myslieť vážne. Skúsme sa pozrieť na posolstvá, ktoré sa dajú vydolovať z odvážneho freestylu podpredsedu KDH pre ekonomiku.

Írsko ako reformný vzor Slovenska

Ešte si pamätáte, ako slovenské pravicové strany dávali úspech Írska za príklad Slovensku a obhajovali ním svoje reformy? Zdalo by sa vám logické, že po konci írskeho zázraku svoj postoj prehodnotia, alebo budú aspoň takticky mlčať?

Omyl, neradostná situácia v Írsku a v ďalších štátoch eurozóny je podľa historicky sklerotického Marcinčina „ďalším dôvodom na skutočné systémové reformy na Slovensku“. Autor sa síce deklaratívne vymedzuje voči „pasci ľavicového či pravicového populizmu“, mne ale momentálne nenapadá lepší príklad populizmu, ako práve ním prezentovaný argument.

Produktivita práce v EÚ

Druhý odsek Marcinčinovho komentára si dovolím pre poriadok odcitovať celý:

„Či už míňate peniaze uvážlivo alebo nezodpovedne, vo výsledku je veľmi ťažké míňať viac ako zarábate. Skôr či neskôr sa totiž môže stať, že staré dlhy nebudete vedieť financovať novými. Na jednej strane je pekné tešiť sa rôznym európskym výdobytkom vrátane štedro dotovaného poľnohospodárstva a sociálnych istôt, na druhej strane však miesto Európy vo svete závisí skôr od našej produktivity práce. Snáď európsky politológ je stále produktívnejší než čínsky (snáď), ale produktivita v mnohých sektoroch európskej reálnej ekonomiky sa postupom času dostáva akosi príliš blízko k tej čínskej.“

Dúfam, že nikoho neurazím, keď túto pasáž preformulujem do (aspoň pre mňa) zrozumiteľnejšieho posolstva. Ak sa nemýlim, autor naznačuje súvislosť medzi neoptimálne vysokou úrovňou dlhu v EÚ, aj vďaka ktorej je životná úroveň v Únii síce pomerne vysoká (podľa autora asi až príliš), ale ktorá má nepriaznivý dopad na produktivitu práce v niektorých sektoroch reálnych ekonomík EÚ.

Kto sa ku komu blíži…

Korektnejšie by bolo povedať, že je to úroveň čínskej produktivity, ktorá sa doťahuje na európsku a nie tak, že by európska úroveň klesala k čínskej (úplne presne – európske tempo rastu je pomalšie, než čínske). Dokonca sa dá tvrdiť, že ak produktivitu práce nemeriame tradične výstupom na hodinu práce, ale aj prostriedkami vynaloženými na hodinu práce a jednotku výstupu (čiže zohľadníme aj úroveň miezd), Čína nás už v produktivite práce predbehla.

Otázka je, prečo by to mal byť problém a prečo vyrovnávaním úrovne produktivity práce merkantilista Marcinčin straší? „Čínska hrozba“ môže fungovať v politike, kde krajiny a regióny súperia o status lídrov. Ako už ale písal napr. Krugman, z ekonomického hľadiska nie je veľa dôvodov obávať sa, že rast produktivity a miezd v Ázii by mal mať negatívny vplyv na životnú úroveň v Európe.

Skôr by sa dalo argumentovať opačne – rastúca Čína okrem toho, že pozdvihne životný štandard svojich obyvateľov (čo by nás tiež malo tešiť), môže zvýšenou spotrebou prospieť aj zvyšku sveta, obzvlášť teraz v období krízy a nadbytku úspor. Medzinárodné hospodárske vzťahy nie sú zďaleka vždy hrou s nulovým súčtom.

… a prečo

Ale späť k produktivite. Marcinčin sa akosi zabúda pýtať, prečo sa rozdiely medzi EÚ a Čínou zmenšujú, čiže prečo sa Čína doťahuje úrovňou produktivity v reálnej ekonomike na EÚ. Žeby čínskym politickým zriadením? To by si podpredseda KDH asi netrúfal pomyslieť.

Faktorov zrýchlenia rastu čínskej produktivity práce, a teda dobiehania úrovne v EÚ, môže byť viacero. Jedna štúdia napr. uvádza, že po roku 1978 nimi boli: 1. reformy trhu práce s cieľom zaviesť doň konkurenciu, 2. posun zo štátneho k súkromnému vlastníctvu, 3. otvorenie Číny globálnemu obchodu prostredníctvom jej členstva vo WTO. Netvrdím, že je to všetko, resp. neručím za to, že štúdia je stopercentne pravdivá či vyčerpávajúca. Ale povedzme.

Dalo by sa niečo z toho odporučiť krajinám EÚ? Nie, pretože to všetko už členské štáty Únie majú. Iba v prípade merania produktivity práce nie per capita, ale pri zohľadnení mzdových nákladov (ako sa o ňom píše v už citovanom článku), by sme mohli Číne konkurovať znižovaním miezd. Tomu by sa Marcinčin, nešťastný z privysokého životnému štandardu všetkých občanov EÚ okrem seba, istotne potešil.

Ak prejdeme od produktivity práce k širším súvislostiam čínskeho dobiehania, ekonómia ponúka vysvetlenie: Aj v neoklasických modeloch rastu chudobnejšie krajiny s nízkou kapitálovou zásobou (a teda s pomerne vyšším hraničným produktom kapitálu) dobiehajú bohatšie krajiny s podobnými štrukturálnymi parametrami.

Podobne nové teórie rastu, ktoré reagujú na neschopnosť neoklasických modelov vysvetliť dlhodobý rast nespôsobený akumuláciou kapitálu, môžu za istých okolností predpovedať konvergenciu chudobnejších krajín.

Podľa ekonóma Milana Vaňka v súvislosti s Čínou za zmienku stojí model, kde chudobná krajina dobieha bohatšiu, pretože náklady na imitáciu produktov sú nižšie, ako náklady na výskum a inovácie technologického lídra.

Dá sa odvrátiť „čínska hrozba“?

Odpovedať nie je jednoduché. Bez ohľadu na to však autor pár jednoduchých odpovedí ponúka. „Nesúlad medzi vládnymi príjmami a výdavkami nie je rozumné riešiť nekonečným zvyšovaním záťaže pracovnej aktivity.“ Neviem, kde sa v praxi pristúpilo k „nekonečnému“ zvýšeniu pracovnej aktivity, ale v poriadku, berme to ako ďalšiu lekciu z populizmu. Veta však inými slovami znamená – nezvyšovať daň z príjmu.

Možno ale viac, než o „záťaž pracovnej aktivity“ ide o to, aby neboli zaťažované korporácie. Marcinčin sa bojí, že v dôsledku aktuálnych problémov Írsko „pod správou MMF a Európy môže prísť napríklad aj o svoju 12,5-percentnú sadzbu korporátnej dane“. V podobnou duchu sa Anton Marcinčin na Slovensku teší „rozumným návrhom na odvodovú reformu… a licenciám pre malých podnikateľov, aby ich štát zbytočne nedusil“.

Technokrat sa v bývalom pracovníkovi Svetovej banky nezaprie. Hoci Slovensko kríza zďaleka neobišla a táto krajina sa topí v mori problémov, Marcinčin sa teší pokútnej odvodovej reforme. A napriek tomu, že občania Írska čelia a budú čeliť drastickým sociálnym škrtom a chudobe, Marcinčin rieši fakt, že extrémne nízke daňové zaťaženie firiem v Írsku sa môže zvýšiť.

„Po druhé, možno by nám naozaj prospelo vychovávať menej politológov a viac inžinierov.“ Neviem, do akej miery tento výrok korešponduje s vetou, ku ktorej referuje („Snáď európsky politológ je stále produktívnejší než čínsky (snáď), ale produktivita v mnohých sektoroch európskej reálnej ekonomiky sa postupom času dostáva akosi príliš blízko k tej čínskej“), rigoróznosť ale nie je hlavnou výsadou tohto článku. Napriek protirečivosti dvoch výpovedí sa zdá, že Marcinčin odporúča, aby vzdelávací systém presunul ťažisko zo spoločenskovedných disciplín na profesie technické.

Odporúčania liberalizované od reality

Nedá sa povedať, že by všetky vyššie uvedené idey boli úplne vedľa. Ale na to, že o daných problémoch prebieha v ekonómii živá a rôznorodá diskusia, pôsobia skutočne nadmieru paušálne a schematicky. Jeden príklad za všetko – napriek tomu, že škandinávske krajiny sú povestné vysokým zdanením práce, nezdá sa, že by to malo mimoriadne negatívny dopad na úroveň produktivity práce v ich ekonomikách.

Skúsim zhrnúť, čo sa nám vlastne Marcinčin snaží svojím komentárom povedať. Pozoruje dva problémy: krízu v Írsku a iných štátoch eurozóny a zmenšujúci sa rozdiel medzi mierou produktivity práce v Číne a EÚ.

Na problémoch ale nezáleží, v prípade jeho komentára fungujú iba ako aktualizačný moment – rovnako dobre by poslúžil výkyv eura ktorýmkoľvek smerom, či zlá úroda pšenice na Ukrajine. Podstatné sú jeho odporúčania. Tie by boli bývali rovnaké pred krízou, povedzme v roku 2006, a ak sa autor nikam neposunie, budú rovnaké o desať rokov.

Po prvé, nízke dane a odvody. Po druhé, rozpočtová disciplína. Ak platí prvé – teda, že dane sú nízke resp. je tabu ich zvyšovať, tak vyrovnaný rozpočet sa dá dosiahnuť jedine škrtaním výdavkov resp. privatizáciou. Po tretie, trh práce nezohľadňujúci potreby a preferencie spoločnosti, ale zodpovedajúci požiadavkám kapitálu.

Toto je podstatný odkaz Marcinčinovho článku. Je dobre vidieť ho jasne a byť si vedomí, čo vládna koalícia na Slovensku chystá. Že napriek kríze sa chystá pokračovať v neoliberálnej politike, a že krízu na tento účel bez škrupúľ rétoricky využíva.

Anton Marcinčin záverom: „Verím, že o pol roka budem spokojnejší, že táto koalícia dokáže svoje opodstatnenie. Inak to spokojne môžeme rozpustiť – aby sme v hanbe neostali.“ Jedine ak tak… . Sláinte!

(Za konzultácie pri písaní článku ďakujem Milanovi Vaňkovi. Za prípadné chyby však zodpovedám sám.)

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Komentáre (1 505)

  • Braňo 24.11.2010 13:21

    Tak Marcincinov komentar je skutocne chaoticky a tiez neviem, co tym chcel povedat.

    Zareagujem na par veci, nech rozprudime diskusiu:
    “Ešte si pamätáte, ako slovenské pravicové strany dávali úspech Írska za príklad Slovensku a obhajovali ním svoje reformy? Zdalo by sa vám logické, že po konci írskeho zázraku svoj postoj prehodnotia, alebo budú aspoň takticky mlčať?”

    Ak povazujeme za Irsky zazrak to, ze Irsko sa za par rokov stalo takmer najbohatsou krajinou na svete, tak sucasny stav Irska na tom nic nemeni. Irsko sa nevratilo na uroven spred 10-20-30 rokov. To, ze Irsko zasiahla recesia predsa nijako neznizuje fakt, ze sa Irsky zazrak stal.

    Je obdobne prudka recesia v 2009 na Slovensku dokazom toho, ze Ficova hospodarska politika totalne zlyhala? Obaja si myslime, ze nie…

    “Aj v neoklasických modeloch rastu chudobnejšie krajiny s nízkou kapitálovou zásobou (a teda s pomerne vyšším hraničným produktom kapitálu) dobiehajú bohatšie krajiny s podobnými štrukturálnymi parametrami.”

    V podstate stacilo napisat, ze z pohladu neoklasickej ekonomie sa akumulaciou kapitalu dlhodoby rast neda dosiahnut. Krajina moze umelo zvysit uspory a dosiahnut “kratkodobo” rychlejsi rast, avsak skor ci neskor pride do rovnovaznej urovne a odtial sa pohne uz len technologickym pokrokom.

    “Čína okrem toho, že pozdvihne životný štandard svojich obyvateľov (čo by nás tiež malo tešiť), môže zvýšenou spotrebou prospieť aj zvyšku sveta, obzvlášť teraz v období krízy a nadbytku úspor.”

    Tu vidim rozpor, pretoze Cina dnes prave umelo zvysuje uspory (cez slaby kurz) a teda znizuje sucasnu spotrebu.

  • I. Lesay 24.11.2010 13:47

    brano,
    ok, ale ved ja nepisem, ze irsky “zazrak” sa nestal, iba ze skoncil ;-)
    (dalsia vec – koncu este nemusi byt koniec,,, vyhliadky pre irsko skutocne nie su optimisticke).

    s cinou mas pravdu, krugman o tom tiez pisal
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/06/qe-is-not-cm/
    preto som aj napisal, ze cina “moze” zvysenou spotrebou prospiet. akoze by sa toho nebolo treba bat.

    dik za reakciu.

  • Gazda 24.11.2010 22:32

    Zisla by sa studia docasnych zazrakov.

  • PeterS 24.11.2010 23:02

    Tak, ak toto je ekonomicky expert KDH, tak nam uz ani pan boh nepomoze.
    Stale sa cudujem, preco veci bezia na Slovensku tak, ako bezia a pomaly mi to zacina byt jasne. Rozhoduju o nas ludia, ktori by tazko nasli uplatnenie aj na poslednej vratnici.

    Obdivujem pana Lesaya, ze dokaze s clankom Marcincina vobec polemizovat, pretoze to je ako s protinozcom debatovat o severnej oblohe. Nic nesedi, podobne ako u Marcincina. Vsetko je mimo realitu. A najme je syzifovske reagovat na konstrukcie, kde Marcincinov predpoklad, ci argument, implikuje nieco uplne ine, nez je Marcinicnov zaver. Pravdepodobne si pomaha metodou zvanou “zazrak”.

    Ja by som uz pri tej Cine vykypel, pretoze zase sa raz niekto opaja skrytym rasizmom – ako by ti cinania len mohli nam europanom… nuz mozu a budeme sa cudovat ako velmi. A nepomoze nam ani to, ze oni ziju v statnom kapitalizme a my mame ikonu 17.novembra s mafianskym kapitalizmom.

    Je to uz mozno 80 rokov, co zacali stavat v Nemecku povestne dialnice. A nam sa ani za 80 rokov nepodarilo prepojit Kosice s Bratislavou a stale to nevyzera dobre, ak sa pozrieme na aktualne politicke pomsty a handlovanie. Toto hovori o nasich schopnostiach viac nez je vobec vhodne a uz nic netreba dodavat.

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