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Národní stát v pasti globalizace (1)

Současná krize v plné síle vyjevila problém vyspělých zemí: Na čem postavit ekonomický růst za situace pracovně úsporných technologií, vedoucí ke klesajícím reálným mzdám většiny populace a nadvýrobě? Přestože by se nyní řada zemí ráda chopila iniciativy a zkusila něco podniknout, zjišťují, že jim chybí nástroje, jak to učinit.

Růstové problémy jsou řešeny dluhem v mnoha podobách. Na jedné straně dluhy domácností, které reflektují klesající kupní sílu středně a nízkopříjmových vrstev. Ta je vyjádřena nejen v přemisťování pracovních míst na Východ, ale také v dominanci kapitálu nad prací. Ten od 70. let vede mimo jiné k poklesu podílu mezd na HDP.

Dluh je charakteristické „řešení“ pro hospodářský útlum i v případě národních států. Vzhledem k sílícímu finačnímu kapitálu je toto „řešení“ ale nadále použitelné jen pro určité státy, např. USA.

Druhé „řešení“ je hledání zisků ve virtuální, finanční sféře. S tou je spojen rozvoj spekulativního kapitálu, který deformuje reálnou ekonomiku (např. kurz, ceny primárních komodit). Rozvoj financializace je silnější než reálná ekonomika, což je vidět nejen na objemu finančních toků (jen 2 % spojena s mezinárodním obchodem se zbožím a službami), ale i na tom, že finanční kapitál je schopen stanovovat trendy – např. v případě hrozby bankrotu určité země jako v současnosti Řecko.

Východ – s velkými rozdíly mezi zeměmi kategorie emerging a rozvojovými – je v odlišné pozici. V řadě zemí probíhá industrializace (přesun kapacit zpracovatelského průmyslu), některé země jsou na Západ napojeny klasickými kolonizačními vazbami jako dodavatelé surovin (ropné státy). Přestože je ekonomický vývoj těchto zemí postaven na reálných základech, jejich napojení na Západ (odbytiště) je deformuje. Ohrožení, které tyto země pociťují, je vyjádřeno např. v akumulaci devizových rezerv.

Asymetrie vývoje mezi Západem (tzv. vyspělými zeměmi) a Východem je pregnantně vyjádřena globální nerovnováhou. Východ (rozvojové a emerging země) financuje Západ, který není schopen nalézt dostatečný růstový impuls.

Západ na tyto podmínky reaguje přizpůsobením se finančnímu kapitálu a nadnárodním firmám, pokračuje v oslabování své ekonomické suverenity a marginalizací faktoru práce. Tato neschopnost posunout se do další fáze vývoje, je vyjádřena i v bezradnosti elit, ve slovníku „přizpůsobení se“ vývoji, akceptaci podmínek finančních trhů apod.

Většina vlád si ovšem formační podobu současné krize neuvědomuje, takže se – místo radikálních řešení – upíná ke klasickým nástrojům makroekonomické politiky, které dobře fungovaly v 50. a 60. letech. Globální světová ekonomika se ovšem změnila natolik, že jsou nyní mnohem méně účinné (byť odlišně s ohledem na velikost země, např.).

Monetární politika je prováděna centrální bankou, která je ve většině západních zemí na vládě nezávislá. V minulých dekádách byli centrální bankéři pod vlivem neoliberální doktríny, která se zaměřovala na inflaci. Možnosti nezávislých centrálních bank jsou zeslabeny rozvojem off shore bankovnictví, které snižuje potenciál regulace.

Dalším vlivem jsou pak spekulativní toky, které deformují kurz, přičemž většina západních zemí nedisponuje devizovými rezervami, které by tomuto dokázaly zabránit. Kurz je klíčová veličina, která ovlivňuje nejen zahraniční obchod země a tak i HDP, ale také např. právě inflaci. Pokud dochází k dlouhodobému misalignment kurzu, tedy většímu vlivu finančního sektoru než např. parity kupní síly, je deformována konkurenceschopnost celé země.

Přílivy a odlivy spekulativního kapitálu vedou k tomu, že země jsou vydány napospas  možným finančním krizím a/nebo bublinám. Dokonce i MMF, který dříve na centrální banky kladl velký důraz, zdůrazňoval, že v období krize je monetární politika méně účinná. Tím de facto potvrdil slova J. M. Keynese o pasti likvidity.

Speciální případ nastává, pokud je bankovní sektor v určité zemi v cizích rukou: Často spíše plní příkazy svých mateřských společností, než aby se staral o dostatečné poskytování úvěrů domácímu průmyslu, či aby reagoval na signály centrální banky.

Ještě závažnější je ovšem situace u politiky fiskální. Aktivní role vlády je přímým poučením z 30. let Velké krize. Koncept sociálního státu kladl důraz na přímé daně (progresivní zdanění), které měly jednak vyhlazovat ekonomický cyklus a také být zdrojem redistribuce. Na straně výdajů pak důležitou roli hrálo sociální pojištění, které mělo zbavit velkou část společnosti nejistoty a přispět k zachování sociálního smíru, který byl po zkušenostech z II. světové války vnímán jako priorita.

Současné podmínky jsou ovšem zásadně odlišné. Týkají se jak strany příjmů, tak výdajů, protože obě jsou spolu zásadně spojeny.

Na straně příjmů se od 90. let zrychluje snižování – v daňové konkurenci mezi státy – přímých daní právnických osob. Během několika málo let daně v této oblasti poklesly na úrovně předtím nepředstavitelné. Vzhledem k daňové „optimalizační“ politice nadnárodních firem i snadnosti, s jakou mohou zisky převádět do daňových rájů, se často objevují požadavky po úplném zrušení daní pro firmy s tím, že je stejně nelze vymoci.

Jedním z charakteristických znaků poválečného vývoje (s růstem od 70. let) je vývoj tzv. off shore deregulace. Termín off shore se vztahuje k zónám globální ekonomiky, kde státy vytvářejí teritoriální či právní enklávy, charakterizované poklesem regulace.

Jedním z nejvýznamnějších znaků off shore je nárůst daňových rájů. Tyto daňové ráje dovolují fimám a bankám, aby přesouvaly velké množství prostředků přes „papírové“ firmy, a vyhnuly se tak daním a regulaci. Některé odhady uvádějí, že poloviny světových peněz sídlí, nebo prochází daňovými ráji.

Progresivita daní, tam kde ještě byla zachována, se značně snižuje, především se snižuje horní sazba pro nejbohatší. V některých zemích byla aplikována rovná daň. Objevují se reminiscence na katastrofální pokus M. Thatcherové o daň z hlavy.

Vlády se proto uchylují stále více ke zvýšení nepřímých daní, např. spotřební či DPH. Jejich výhoda je zřejmá, u určitých statků se jedná o kategorie co nejbližší tzv. Ramseyho dani (tj. daň ze statku, který má buď neelastickou poptávku či nabídku, tak aby daňová distorze byla co nejmenší).

Problém je, že daně tohoto typu jsou jednoznačně degresivního rázu, tj. nejvíce dopadají na ty nejchudší. Ti totiž obvykle nemohou spořit, tedy celý jejich disponibilní důchod jde na spotřebu a tak se jich zdražení vyvolané nárůstem daně dotkne nejvíce.

Analýza Eurostatu Taxation trends in the EU 2010 konstatuje, že od 90. let posílil trend snižování přímých daní. Velmi patrné je to u daně z příjmů fyzických osob: Snížila se sazba horního pásma, tedy pro nejbohatší. Rozdíly v rámci EU jsou enormní a naznačují široké používání daňového dumpingu jako „prostředku dohánění“ ze strany nových členů.

Nejvyšší daňové sazby si udržuje Skandinávie, nejnižší pak země s rovnou daní, včetně ČR. Největší snížení horní sazby u daně z příjmu fyzických osob bylo pozorováno v případě u Bulharska (30 procentních bodů), Rumunska (24 p.b.), Slovenska (23 p.b.) a ČR (17 p.b.). Ukazuje to na první pohled, jakou cestu rozvoje si ČR a SR zvolily a kde brali svou inspiraci.

Podobně silný propad zaznamenaly korporátní daně (daně z příjmu právnických osob). V roce 1995 byla průměrná daň 35,3 %, zatímco nyní je 23,2 %! Tento trend daňového podbízení nebyl přerušen ani finanční krizí, naopak řada zemí předložila návrhy další snižování této daně. Tento typ politiky opět dokazuje bezradnost současných vládnoucích elit vůči (ne)dosahování ekonomického růstu.

Zdanění spotřeby, kde nejdůležitější daní je DPH, naopak zažívá růst od počátku nového století.

Vývoj daně z příjmu právnických osob (1995-2010) v EU 27 a v Eurozóně

Zdroj: Eurostat: Taxation trends in the EU 2010, str. 73.

(Článek vznikl na základě mé čerstvě publikované knihy Globalizace a krize. Dokončení příští týden.)

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