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Koniec eura ako ho poznáme

Keď v roku 1999 bola de facto zavedená spoločná európska mena ako zavŕšenie procesu budovania jednotného trhu (1986) a maastrichtskej etapy inštitucionalizácie EÚ (1992), optimizmus o jej prínose pre dynamizáciu európskej ekonomiky sa prakticky nespochybňoval. Zaiste, eurozóna nikdy nebola optimálnou menovou oblasťou v zmysle tradičných predpokladov, avšak táto fundamentálna kritika bola trvale prerušovaná floskulami európskych konzervatívcov a liberálov, ako i čoraz domotanejšej „novej“ sociálnej demokracie tzv. tretej cesty.

Normálni politickí ekonómovia dobre vedeli, že toľko omieľané úspory transakčných nákladov a prínosy z harmonizácie úrokových mier a inflácie nebudú žiadnym zázrakom. Avšak onedlho zrealizované masívne rozšírenie únie o hladnú svorku transformačných ekonomík s (údajným) nedostatkom kapitálu a nadbytkom lacnej pracovnej sily dodali nový rastový impulz vyplývajúci z možnosti kombinácie jednotlivých produkčných faktorov s často extrémne odlišnými cenami.

Nastala demoralizácia a rozklad odborov starej Európy a veľký seriál o trvalej potrebe predstihu rastu produktivity práce pred rastom reálnych miest – teda feudalizácia kapitalizmu bohatnutím bohatých a chudobnením chudobných – sa mohol naplno rozbehnúť i na starom kontinente. Akokoľvek, projekt eura mohol s istými obmedzeniami obstáť, avšak v prostredí totálnej globalizácie s liberalizáciou produktových a faktorových trhov je pre štrukturálne slabších členov a napokon i pre celú európsku ekonomiku, síce pomalšie pôsobiacim, no jednoznačne smrteľným jedom.

Prečo? Euro jednoducho nie je roztomilá pravidelne priberajúca kačka vo vlastnom rybníčku. Je to klasická germánska Brunhilda so zlatou prilbicou, stojaca už vyše kolien v stále sa prepadajúcom močiari, čudujúc sa pritom čoraz hlasnejšiemu vreskotu o pomoc inokedy roztomilých južanských chlapcov a jedného Íra. Táto tlupa bývalých pestovateľov korku, olív, viniča a zemiakov, nemala v podstate po zavedení eura ani veľmi na výber.

Ak nechcela ísť, pri čoraz mdlejšom raste, cestou zvýšenia vlastnej konkurencieschopnosti tzv. vnútornou devalváciou (t. j. poklesom reálnych miest a zvyšovaním nepriamych daní), chtiac-nechtiac sa pustila do nafukovania bublín všakovakého typu. Napokon, v našej krajinke zanechali a zanechávajú neprehliadnuteľné stopy írski developeri rozličného rangu, portugalské stavebné firmy dobre vycvičené na čerpanie eurofondov pre infraštruktúrnu a rezidenčnú výstavbu, či zábavná ponuka prenájmov apartmánov na španielskom pobreží.

Desiatky, či vlastne už stovky gréckych študentov medicíny u nás naďalej dúfajú na privilegovaný plat a status svojho budúceho povolania pri návrate domov. Ich domovské krajiny sa varia v rastúcom dlhu a fiškálnej neudržateľnosti, ktorá logicky akceleruje pri zvyšovaní nepriamych daní pri súčasnom šetrení výdavkov a celkovým poklesom vnútorného dopytu.

Úplne jednoznačne – euro je problematickým pokusom o pseudozlatý menový štandard, ktorý je šitý na mieru nesporne svetového šampióna v technologickej efektívnosti exportu – Nemecka. Tento majster sveta vo vývoze strojov a technológií pritom vybudoval povojnové základy prosperity na politike podhodnotenej marky a skalopevného tripartitizmu v 50. a 60. rokoch 20. storočia. Jeho kapitál v posledných 20 rokoch obsadil všetky dôležité vertikálne nadväzujúce stupne finalizácie produkcie v Európe (a nielen tam) a to podľa železnej logiky relatívnej úrovne faktorových cien.

Svojim závistlivým menším rakúskym bratom a francúzsko-talianskym neokorporativistom prenechal bubliny veľkých nádejí rastu hypoték, životného poistenia a privatizovaných penzijných systémov kdesi v Rumunsku, na Ukrajine, či na Slovensku. Zmrazením rastu reálnych miezd v kombinácii s dnešnými komickými záchranami bánk z verejných rozpočtov, sa môže naďalej tešiť z predlžujúcich sa čakacích dôb pre dodávky svojich luxusných automobilov, strojov a špičkových technológií, ktoré sa napokon stretnú s neklesajúcimi bonusmi bankárov a úsilím čínskych, či indických korporácií o prácu šetriace investície.

Globálna hospodárska kríza, ktorú reálne začali tráviť v USA už od leta 2007, a ktorej skutočné rozmery dôsledkov pre Európu si Trichet a spol. začali uvedomovať rok a pol po jej definitívnom vypuknutí v septembri 2008, je veľkou hrozbou pre hospodársku budúcnosť Európy a eura. V prvom rade, je neuveriteľné s akou ľahkosťou dokáže Bernanke a FED hrať maximálne efektívnu hru s jedným pravidlom: „udri prvý, ostatní sa budú musieť prispôsobiť“.

Komentáre všakovakých šamanov z brokerských firiem prognózujúcich cenu zlata v nekonečne, a obviňujúcich Američanov z prípravy menového rozpadu sveta, vôbec nechápu elementárny zámer: púšťanie žilou cez tzv. kvantitatívne uvoľňovanie je v prostredí nízkej inflácie a vysokej nezamestnanosti pre FED len taktickou nutnosťou, ako s čo najmenšími nákladmi uhrať pohyby výmenného kurzu, ochotu financovať dlh a odvrátiť defláciu (t. j. neschudobnenie domácich držiteľov aktív) na ihrisku s nepoučiteľnými Číňanmi a absolútne paralyzovanými európskymi inštitúciami.

Politicko-ekonomická logika tejto hry naznačuje, že Obamova administratíva v druhej polovici svojho funkčného obdobia urobí za nadšeného súhlasu demokratov aj republikánov v podstate už len dva závažné kroky – predĺži platnosť čiastočne nezmyselných daňových úľav Bushovej éry, a napokon, zavedie clá a kvóty v prospech podpory tvorby pracovných miest v domácej ekonomike.

Každodenné tliachanice o potrebe zvyšovania prostriedkov eurovalu, či rekapitalizácie bánk, môžu tzv. lídri pokojne skončiť. Minimálna úroveň plne nekrytého štátneho dlhu v Európe je do 800 mld. euro, k tomu treba prirátať ďalších takmer 450 mld. zdrojov reálne stále chýbajúcich vo finančnom a korporátnom sektore. Rozsah nekrytej katastrofy je v podstate rovnaký ako v prípade USA a niet pochýb, že tieto dáta z oficiálnych menových štatistík ECB predstavujú ten najmenší možný objem záchranného vankúša po niekoľko nasledujúcich rokov. Minimálne preto, lebo ďalšia katastrofa pre bilancie bánk v prípade definitívneho exekučného vyčistenia hypotečných dlžníkov k tomu poľahky pridá niekoľko desiatok miliárd eur.

Čo možno v tejto situácii robiť a očakávať? V prvom rade niet žiadnych pochýb o tom, že pre Grécko, Portugalsko, Írsko, a napokon zrejme i Španielsko bude jediným reálnym a sociálne únosným riešením dobrovoľný odchod z eurozóny, štátny bankrot argentínskeho typu, a následná dlhá cesta ozdravovania s podstatne devalvovanou národnou menou. Zvyšok eurozóny zostane kvázielitným klubom s maximálnou ostražitosťou pri akomkoľvek budúcom rozširovaní.

A Slovensko? Slovensko by sa vôbec nemalo báť návratu k národnej mene s aspoň 20 % znehodnotením voči prestrelenému konverznému kurzu. To by zarmútilo developerov, poskytovateľov nebankových pôžičiek, banky, správcov budúcich penzií… jednoducho všetky druhy politických podnikateľov a expertov malokarpatského profilu. K tomu sa musí pridať zásadná zmena nastavenia a úrovne redistribučnosti daňového a verejno-finančného systému, a prirodzene kompetentná menová politika, čo, bohužiaľ v našej realite nie je úplne samozrejmé. Podstatnou kvalifikáciou pre vysedávanie na guvernérskych postoch či v bankovej rade bola totiž doteraz vždy kritická miera zaangažovanosti v procesoch formátu oddlženie a predaj bánk (1999-2001), či účasť na pseudoefektívnom dohľade nad finančným trhom.

Zaiste, budúcnosť, a osobitne v záplave hodnotení a odporúčaní v posledných tridsiatich rokoch plne sprostituovaného ekonomického mainstreamu, je vždy otvorená. No som si celkom istý, že tak ako mal Mike Stipe a jeho R.E.M. v roku 1987 pravdu so svojou skladbou „Koniec sveta tak ako ho poznáme“, má ju rovnako i dnes. Koniec eurozóny v súčasnej podobe bude len prvou petardou v globálnom ohňostroji, ktorý nás v najbližších rokoch jednoducho neminie.

Skrátená verzia článku vychádza v denníku Pravda.

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