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Branislav Žúdel autorom Kriteka: Nerušme dôchodkovú reformu

Redakcia blogu Kritická ekonómia rada uverejní kvalifikovanú kritiku názorov prezentovaných na blogu. Chceli by sme tak prispieť ku skvalitneniu diskusie o dôležitých spoločenských témach. Začíname príspevkom Braňa Žúdela k dôchodkovej reforme.

V minulých dňoch predniesli autori blogu Kriteko niekoľko pohľadov na dôchodkový systém, reagujúc najmä na rozhodnutie maďarskej vlády a parlamentu zoštátniť tamojší druhý dôchodkový  pilier.

Marián Vitkovič bránil kroky Maďarska poukázaním na slabú výkonnosť maďarských fondov. Ivan Lesay obhajoval zoštátnenie druhého piliera fundamentálnejšími argumentmi, obdobne tak urobil aj Joachim Becker. V tejto súvislosti by som si dovolil prispieť niekoľkými jednoduchými  postrehmi, ktoré by mohli schladiť nadšenie.

Argument Mariána Vitkoviča, že zoštátnenie je v poriadku, pretože druhý pilier aj tak neprináša očakávané výnosy,  sa opiera o článok porovnávajúci dôchodkové systémy vo vysoko regulovanom prostredí.

Článok však okrem konštatovania, že maďarské fondy dosahujú nízke výnosy, uvádza aj dôvody nižšej výkonnosti fondov. Tými sú vládne regulácie. Zle nastavený systém regulácií motivuje správcovské spoločnosti k investovaniu takmer výlučne do štátnych dlhopisov, ktorých dlhodobý výnos  je vo všeobecnosti nižší v porovnaní s akciami.

V tejto súvislosti treba upozorniť, že rovnakou cestou sa vydalo aj Slovensko, keď novelou zákona motivovalo správcovské spoločnosti k predaju akcií a k nákupu dlhopisov. Riešením však nie je zoštátnenie, resp. prípadné zrušenie druhého piliera. Riešením je náprava zlej regulácie.

Hlavným argumentom Ivana Lesaya pre podporu krokov Maďarska je, že  „reforma, ktorá iba obmieňa spôsob prevodu, ale nezvyšuje úroveň celkového príjmu spoločnosti, nemôže riešiť demografický problém“. Z tohto logicky usudzuje, že nemá zmysel systém reformovať a postačia len jeho parametrické zmeny, pretože aj tak povedú k rovnakému výsledku.

Zabúda však na dôležitú skutočnosť, ktorou je efekt daní na motiváciu ľudí pracovať. V situácii, keď sa zvyšuje pomer dôchodcov ku pracujúcim, je možné problém v priebežnom systéme vo všeobecnosti riešiť kombináciou troch spôsobov: zvýšením veku odchodu do dôchodku, znížením (rastu) dôchodkov (resp. znížením zásluhovosti) a zvýšením odvodov.

Čo však môžeme od pracujúcich očakávať, ak im zvýšime sociálne odvody s tým, že budú pracovať dlhšie a dostanú relatívne nižší dôchodok? No určite nie viac práce. Naopak, touto politikou demotivujeme ľudí pracovať, čo povedie k nižšiemu výkonu celého hospodárstva[1].

Dôchodková reforma tento  efekt odbúrava, čím zvyšuje efektívnosť (pre detailnejšiu diskusiu viď.  Kotlikoff a práce, ktoré ho citujú), takže v konečnom dôsledku nejde o hru s nulovým súčtom.

Uprostred dlhovej krízy politici vyťahujú najrôznejšie výhovorky, ako naplniť štátnu kasu, na ktorú pochopiteľne v lepších časoch nemysleli. Tragikomickú situáciu ilustruje fakt, že kým politici obviňujú prvú generáciu sporiteľov z nezáujmu o to, ako budú žiť súčasní dôchodcovia, tak ekonómovia si naopak lámu hlavu nad tým, ako túto prvú tranzitívnu generáciu sporiteľov kompenzovať, keďže práve dnešná mladá generácia bude musieť v budúcnosti nielen splatiť dlh sociálnej poisťovne, ale zároveň si bude musieť sama našetriť na dôchodok.

Absurdne taktiež pôsobia výroky maďarského ministra hospodárstva, ktorý obhajuje kroky svojej vlády tým, že úspory v druhom pilieri sú počas kríz vystavené rizikám. Odhliadnuc od toho, že tento problém sa dá ošetriť aj inak ako zoštátnením[2], tak práve prvý pilier bol pôvodne založený napr. v USA z dôvodu, že mal slúžiť ako garancia minimálneho dôchodku voči riziku prepadu akciových trhov po skúsenostiach z Veľkej hospodárskej krízy.

Autor je ekonóm, pôsobí na CERGE-EI v Prahe.


[1] Výskumy tiež ukazujú, že samotný priebežný pilier motivuje k nižšej fertilite, a paradoxne je teda jednou z príčin demografického problému, pozri tu, tu, tu alebo tu.

[2] Napr. slovenský zákon znižuje toto riziko tak, že sporiteľ nemôže mať úspory v rizikovom rastovom fonde menej ako 15 rokov pred dovŕšením dôchodkového veku.

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Komentáre (638)

  • Tiburon 20.12.2010 10:11

    Autor tvrdi, ze slabe vynosy investovania prostrednictvom DSS su sposobene ich nespravnou regulaciou zo strany statu.
    Kto chce verit, nech tomu veri, ale kto ma aspon stipku pudu sebazachovy, nech ziada dokazy respektive presvedcivu argumentaciu.
    Lebo zatial plati, ze DSSky sa nezaviazali, ze ak padnu statne regulacie, investorom zarucia aspon minimalnu uroven realnych vynosov (nad inflaciu).
    Autor spravne postrehol, ze primarnym dovodom zavedenia II piliera je prenesenie bremena financovania solidarneho systemu dochodkoveho zabezpecenia z pliec kapitalu na plecia zamestnancov. Cely II pilier je len o jednom: ako vyviazat kapital zo socialnych zavazkov?
    Autor sa preto myli, ked si mysli, ze rozhodujuci je pomer poctu pracujucich k poctu dochodcov. Rozhodujuci je pomer v hospodarstve uctovanych miezd k vyplacanym dochodkom.
    Motivacia ludi pracovat s tymto vsetkym nema nic spolocne. V situacii, ked mame strukturalnu mieru nezamestnanosti v rozmedzi 10 – 30% je vyska odvodov z pohladu potencialnych zamestnancov tym poslednym motivacnym ci demotivacnym faktorom pri hladani si prace.
    Kvitujem, ze kriteko je ochotne debatovat a teda publikuje aj reakciu zastancov II piliera.
    Som ale sklamany velmi slabou urovnou tohto prispevku. Pri dnesnej urovni vedomosti a disponibilnych datach je tato protireakcia na urovni prezuvania argumentacie, ktoru pre potreby propagandy vyrabaju PR oddelenia DSSiek prudko nedostatocna.

  • Peter Copian 20.12.2010 10:14

    Pokial viem, tak sa reguluje hlavne s cielom znizit riziko pri sporeni si na vec tak dolezitu, ako je prijem v case, ked clovek nieje schopny pracovat. Kriza decimujuca uzasne “dlhodobo vysoke” vynosy totiz nieje iba nejake cislo alebo statisticky udaj, su to realne peniaze, ktore budu ludom chybat v masiarniach a zelovococh. System by bol ekonomicky vyhodny a efektivny aj keby 100 rokov prosperity striedal rok hladomoru, chceli by sme ale v tako systeme zit?

  • Avatar 20.12.2010 11:15

    Tiburon,
    nevyčítaj autorovi, že slabo obhajuje svoju teóriu. Vieš, neobhájiteľné sa obhajuje veľmi ťažko.
    Problém dôchodkov je len z časti zavinený demografickým vývojom. Ako vravíš, je to o výkonnosti, nie o pôrodnosti. Ja vidím najväčší problém v príliš vysokých, skôr až nekresťansky vysokých výdavkoch do obslužného systému – banky, poisťovne, štátny aparát …
    Ak sa niečo nespraví s legálnym úžerníctvom, tak budeme vždy iba naháňať chvost.

  • Braňo 20.12.2010 11:59

    Ad Tiburon: Ja som trosku sklamany reakciou na clanok. Dufam, ze niekto pride aj s relevantnou kritikou.
    .
    1. madarske fondy: schvalne som sa opieral o clanok, na ktory odkazal Marian Vitkovic, ked kritizoval druhy pilier. Vycitat mi, ze nemam dokazy je teda trochu komicke. Vitkovic ich s odkazom na ten paper mal, ale ja zrazu nie? Islo v prvom rade o imanentnu kritiku. Kludne si svoj postoj obhajim, ak pride relevantna kritika.
    .
    2. “Lebo zatial plati, ze DSSky sa nezaviazali, ze ak padnu statne regulacie, investorom zarucia aspon minimalnu uroven realnych vynosov (nad inflaciu).”
    .
    Ze DSS neprisli s inkredibilnou samoregulaciou ma byt dokaz coho? Ci obvinujeme DSS, ze neprisli s vlastnym navrhom zakona? Nemyslite vazne.
    .
    3. “Cely II pilier je len o jednom: ako vyviazat kapital zo socialnych zavazkov?”
    .
    Aky kapital, ake socialne zavazky? Pisal som, ze je to o tom, ze sa znizi distortive efekt dani, veduci dnes k deadweight loss a nepriamo k dalsim stratam. Nechapem, co s tym maju socialne zavazky, ci nejake vyviazanie kapitalu. Mohli by ste dat na toto nejaku relevantnu referenciu?
    .
    Schvalne som napisal clanok velmi jednoducho, este som aj explicitne vyjadril, ze mi pojde o jednoduche, ale dolezite postrehy. A ak niekto nepochopi jednoduchy hlavny argument, tak skutocne nemam zatial motivaciu ist hlbsie.
    .
    “Autor sa preto myli, ked si mysli, ze rozhodujuci je pomer poctu pracujucich k poctu dochodcov.”
    .
    Autor si to nemysli a nikde to nenapisal.
    .
    “Rozhodujuci je pomer v hospodarstve uctovanych miezd k vyplacanym dochodkom.”
    .
    Autor toto implicitne vyjadril v troch sposoboch parametrickej upravy priebezneho systemu.
    .
    “je vyska odvodov z pohladu potencialnych zamestnancov tym poslednym motivacnym ci demotivacnym faktorom pri hladani si prace.”
    .
    A – toto je vas nazor. Uplne abstrahujete napr. od toho, ze motivujete ludi (extensive margin) ist do sedej ekonomiky, nez aby sa mali oficialne zamestnat a platit velke marginalne sadzby.

    B – Vas argument uplne zabudol na uz zamestnanych a ich rozhodnutie kolko pracovat (instensive margin), co je pre mna opat velke prekvapenie, najma ak niekto debatuje o efektoch politik.
    .
    C – mohol by som este pridat tax evasion efekt.
    .
    Nie som si celkom isty, ci teda citatel pochopil hlavny argument clanku. Ak nie, tak by ma to mrzelo, pretoze v tom pripade som ho zjavne napisal nezrozumitelne.

  • Gazda 20.12.2010 14:43

    Vplyv vladnych regulacii na vynosy fondov DSSiek, moze znamenat iba jednu vec. DSSky su ochotne zvysovat vynosy zvysovanim investicneho rizika (inak to podla Markowitza nejde) iba v pripade, ze riziko znasaju sporitelia. DSSky samy nie su ochotne riskovat svoje zdroje. Asi poznaju kvalitu svojich investicnych zamestnancov.
    Pritom ani pred zavedenim novych regulacii DSSky zriedkavo investovali viac ako 20% investicii do firemnych akcii. Aj to prevazne firiem obrovskych s minimalnym rizikom a tym aj minimalnym potencionalnym vynosom.
    Vyzera to tak, ze DSSky investovali super konzervativne a “Ficove” obmedzenia im vyhovovali. Takisto im to poskytlo planu vyhovorku.
    Pritom DSSky mali plno moznosti riskovat este pred novymi regulaciami. Mohli vrazit 20% do CITI za dolar a predat v kratkom case za dva. Vynosu celeho portfolia by to pridalo 20% a stali by sa hrdinami financnej tlace a svojich sporitelov.

  • JD 20.12.2010 16:10

    väčšiu hovadinu o DSS som počul jedine s ust kaníka autor by mu mohol klude isť robiť poradcu …
    ja som nepocul nikoho z menovanych hovorit o zruseni DSS ale iba o tom ze je to cele zle nastavene a skor ci neskor to aj tak skonci ako v madarsku … celi clanok je jeden zhluk fraz z mainstreamu (zväčša polopravdy az zavadzanie) nic nove na obhajobu II. piliera tam neni ale to sa dalo cakat II. pilier sa neda obhajit iba demagogiou :/

  • Braňo 20.12.2010 16:56

    Ad Gazda:
    Co je podstatou investovania? Jednoducho vyskladat portfolio tak, aby sme maximalizovali vynos a minimalizovali varianciu.
    .
    Podstata Markowitzovej diverzifikacie je v tom, ze z rizikovych instrumentov vyskladate bezrizikove portfolio, kedze rozne instrumenty medzi sebou rozne koreluju.
    .
    Ked vsak regulaciou obmedzite investorove moznosti, tak z coho ma vyskladat to porfolio, ak ma zakazany pristup k vhodnym instrumentom?
    .
    “DSSky samy nie su ochotne riskovat svoje zdroje.”
    .
    Skor by som povedal, ze pri takto nastavnom systeme nechcu riskovat svoju existenciu.
    .
    Chapal by som povodny plan porovnavajuci 5 rocne obdobia. Ale 6 mesiacov? Vsak tam moze dojst k dojst velkym rozdielom a dssky nemaju sancu toto doplatit.
    .
    Vseobecne sa treba opytat, ako mozu spolocnosti, ktorych zakladne imanie je spolu menej ako 10 mld. korun rucit za majetok, ktory uz teraz je desatnasobne vacsi?
    .
    To, ze neinvestovali ani predtym naplno do akcii, moze suvisiet s ich proklamovanou opatrnou pociatocnou strategiou, aby neodstrasili na zaciatku ludi. Samozrejme, teraz sme vsetci generali, a vieme kto mal ako a kde investovat. Ale keby prisla vtedy korekcia, tak tazko vysvetlite ludom, ze to je len kratkodobe. Ludia mozu byt na dochodok dost citlivi a mozu hned prejst ku konkurencii.

  • Gazda 21.12.2010 13:03

    Brano, riziko mozno znizit diverzifikaciou, ale takisto vyberom menej riskantnych cenin. Celkove vsak investicie do akcii su riskantnym sposobom udrziavania hodnoty majetku. To si zrejme uvedomovali DSSky spociatku a uvedomuju si to aj dnes.
    Vzhladom na to, ze ludia nastupuju do dochodku v danom termine, pripadne v kratkom rozmedzi okolo neho, DSSky potrebuju, ale nie su schopne neustale udrziavat aktiva na prijatelnej urovni a sucasne investovat “dlhodobo”. Dlhodoby pohlad je vhodnejsi pre investorov uzivajucich disponibilne zdroje.
    Mas pravdu, ze po bitke je kazdy generalom, ale v pripade kortesacky do druheho piliera, sa mnohi mladi neskuseni suchozemstania vydavali priamo za admiralov. Boli pripraveni na pokojne more, ale nie na burku v podobe stagnujucich trhov.

  • Ivan Lesay 21.12.2010 20:02

    brano, vdaka za prispevok.
    ad vitkovicov argument. pises „Riešením však nie je zoštátnenie, resp. prípadné zrušenie druhého piliera. Riešením je náprava zlej regulácie.“ no podla teba mozno. ale marian alebo ja sme boli proti reforme uz predtym, nez sa robila. a preto pre nas situacia v madarsku, kedy sa spravila nesmierne nakladna dochodkova reforma, aby sa investovalo do statnych obligacii (cize sa spravil de facto priebezny system, akurat s tym, ze sa nabaluju dochodkove spolocnosti), je urcite dovodom, aby sme argumentovali v prospech zostatnenia. tak ako ty (mylne ;-) ) argumentujes za napravu zlej regulacie. ale my sme za zostatnenie aj u nas, takze to nie je to podstatne… .

    chcem sa vyjadrit najma k tvojej kritike voci mne. uvadzas argument o demotivacii pracovat. ok, skusme si predstavit, ze to funguje tak, ako pises. povedz mi potom ale jednu vec – aku motivaciu pracovat mas ty, ked musis platit aj sucasnym dochodcom, a aj si sporit na svoj dochodok. sam v clanku problematiku dvojitych nakladov reformy spominas. takze ak ma nieco demotivacny charakter, tak je to prave dochodkova reforma v tomto prevedeni, a nie zachovanie priebezneho systemu.

  • Braňo 21.12.2010 21:28

    Ad Gazda:
    ” riziko mozno znizit diverzifikaciou, ale takisto vyberom menej riskantnych cenin.”
    .
    Nie vsak pri tych istych vynosoch. Menej riskantne istrnumenty maju nizsi vynos.
    .
    “(DSS) nie su schopne neustale udrziavat aktiva na prijatelnej urovni a sucasne investovat “dlhodobo””
    .
    Nie celkom rozumiem. DSSka manazuje tri typy fondov, podla rizika. Ludom, ktorym sa blizi dochodkovy vek jednoducho musi akcie predat a kupit menej rizikove instrumenty. To spravi tak, ze ich preradi z jedneho fondu do druheho. Portfolio jednotlivych fondov vsak menit nemusi.
    .

  • Braňo 21.12.2010 22:47

    Ad Ivan.
    Nemas zaco.
    Marian argumentoval vo svojom komentari nizsimi vynosmi (underperformance), z toho som aj vychadzal.
    .
    Co sa tyka tej druhej veci, tak druhy pilier je takmer plne zasluhovy, takze motivaciu nedeformuje. Dobre si napisal: “sporit si na svoj dochodok”. Marginalna dan je tam minimalna. Ak vypustime efekt ostatnych dani a odvodov, tak z jedneho navyse odvedeneho eura mi moze ist na dochodkovy ucet kolko? 99 centov (kvoli poplatkom DSSke)? Preco by ludia teda nepracovali viac?
    .
    Preto je aj velky rozdiel mat “zasluhovy” a solidarny priebezny dochodkovy system. Napr. pre nemecky zasluhovy system sa odhadlo, ze efektivna demotivujuca dan je polovicna z “nominalnej”. Ludia teda nevnimaju celu marginalnu sadzbu ako demotivujucu dan, pokial vedia, ze za viac prace dostanu vyssi dochodok. Tvoj argument sa navyse tyka len tranzitivnej generacie.

  • Ivan Lesay 22.12.2010 12:59

    “Tvoj argument sa navyse tyka len tranzitivnej generacie.”

    nemyslis vazne, brano. ale ved ja sa len drzim tvojej argumentacie o demotivacii pracovat. ja teraz len hram toho sebca, co kasle na buduce generacie a trapi ho, ze je prislusnikom prave tej tranzitivnej generacie. a teda plati dva krat, a teda je demotivovany pracovat. si modelar, tak si skus ferovo namodelovat pri rovnakych makroekonomickych podmienkach zachovanie stareho systemu a porovnaj to s modelom II. piliera pocas prechodu na novy system. zohladni naklady na prechod, zohladni poplatky dss-kam. potom sa uvidi, kto bude demotivovany :-)

    a propo – ty si asi necital cely ten moj paper o dochodkoch. lebo vyska odhadovanych poplatkov dss-kam je teda 15x vyssia, nez pises.

    a celkovo mam pocit, ze vsetko, co si pisal v povodnej reakcii na moj clanok, v tomto prispevku, i v tejto diskusii… na to vsetko som tam uz pred 5 rokmi reagoval :-)

  • Gazda 22.12.2010 13:54

    K zasluhovosti druheho piliera:
    Druhy pilier je iba ciastocne zasluhovy. Zasluhovy iba pre tych, co si nasetria dost na nakup anuity v dostatocnej vyske. O ostatnych ucastnikov druheho piliera sa musi postarat spolocnost i ked si dochodok “nezasluzia”.
    Ad Brano:
    Riziko u kandidata na dochodok je, ze prezije posledne roky zivota v nevykurenej miestnosti so skvrkajucim zaludkom. Tomu by sa mal system prisposobit a tomu by mal investicny profil vyhoviet. Je to ine, ak vysledkom vysoko riskantnej investicie je strata motorky, lyziarskeho vyletu do Nepalu ci odlozenie nakupu diamantoveho prstena pre frajerku.
    DSSky, aspon podla ich prehlaseni asi nevidia rozdiel v pristupe. Preco? Pretoze nie su za dochodky zodpovedne. Iba za spravovanie uspor.

  • dano 22.12.2010 14:20

    na margo tranzitivnej generacie: Vidis Ivan, okrem logiky racionalneho konania za ucelom sledovania vlastneho zaujmu, tato reforma si vyzaduje aj silnu davku medzigeneracneho alturizmu. (ak sa nemylim, rovnako ako pri priebeznom systeme). docerta, a ja som si myslel, ze, nas neoliberalna ekonomia od tychto zatazujucich moralnych sentimentov odbremeni :/

  • Ivan Lesay 22.12.2010 15:45

    dano, ved to je jasne – kazda pravicova reforma musi byt uz z definicie “zodpovedna”… bez toho to nejde :-)

  • Braňo 22.12.2010 20:39

    Ivan, ty sa nedrzis mojej argumentacie, pretoze som uz jednak ukazal, ze sucasna generacia nekasle na staru (kedze bude musiet jej dochodky tak, ci onak zaplatit) a jednak si nie celkom pochopil, co je to marginalna dan. Samotny fakt, ze si mam nasporit na dochodok nijako predsa nedemotivuje moje usilie pracovat viac. Takisto ani splatenie dlhu za dochodky sucasnej starsej generacie nie je per se demotivacne, vid. nizsie.
    .
    Rozhodujuce pre motivaciu pracovat nie je ani tak vyska dane, ako skor sposob jej vyberu. Ja viem, ze ste od vselijakych pseudoodbornikov poculi, ze vysoke dane vedu apriori k neefektivnosti, ale to nie je pravda.
    .
    Co sa tyka nasho pripadu, tak linearne, resp. progresivne dane su viac demotivujuce ako napr. nejaka pasualna dan. Pokial viem, ze mam zaplatit 100€ dan, nech zarobim hocikolko, tak ma to nijako nedemotivuje pracovat viac (kedze marginalna dan je nulova). Pokial vsak mam zaplatit 50% dan z dodatocne zarobeneho eura, tak uz si trochu rozmyslim, ci sa mi oplati pracovat viac.
    .
    K dlhu. Pokial stat povie, ze v buducnosti dlh socialnej poistovne uhradi napr. cez nizsie benefity (nizsie vydavky), tak marginalna sadzba dani zostava rovnaka ako predtym. Ak sa rozhodnem pracovat viac, tak ma stat zdani rovnako ako predtym. Benefitov mi da pritom menej, ci uz budem pracovat viac alebo menej.
    .
    Co sa tyka tych poplatkov, tak hovorime predsa o marginalnej dani, nie o sume poplatkov z celkoveho nasporeneho dochodku, o com predpokladam, ze si hovoril ty. To je pre nasu analyzu uplne nepodstatny udaj.
    .
    Ale vsimol si teraz nieco ine. V nasom druhom pilieri je poplatok za spravu majetku nastaveny tak, ze rastie s majetkom. Takze ak sa bude trhom darit (vynos v priemere napr. 6% rocne pocas 30 rokov), tak spociatku je marginalna dan zanedbatelne mala, ale tesne pred dochodkom moze marginalna dan z kazdeho dodatocneho vkladu dosiahnut 25%, co vynos urcite nepokryje a moze to ludi motivovat k predcasnemu dochodku.
    .
    Ja by som ti nerad kazil pocity, este takto pred vianocami, takze to radsej necham tak… :-)

  • Braňo 22.12.2010 20:52

    Ad gazda:
    “Tomu by sa mal system prisposobit a tomu by mal investicny profil vyhoviet.”

    Stale nerozumiem. Vsak investicny profil konzervativnych fondov je velmi nizko rizikovy. A kedze x rokov pred dochodkom nemozu byt ludia v akciovom fonde, tak nehrozi, ze by par dni, mesiac, tyzdnov, rokov, prisli o 20% dochodku.
    .
    Ano, stat sa ma starat o chudobnych. A preto by tu mal byt solidarny prvy pilier.

  • Gazda 23.12.2010 14:14

    Brano, pod investicnym profilom dochodkoveho systemu myslim celkovu filozofiu vsetkych moznosti, nie iba fakt, ze relativne su urcite fondy v ramci systemu menej rizikove ako ine. Je to odlisny pristup od typickej investicnej strategii kde tiez plati, ze mladym vyhovuje viac rizika ako starsim.

  • Ivan Lesay 24.12.2010 12:16

    juuj, brano, ale sebavedomie ti zato nechyba… :-D
    ale mlzis, mlzis, neskutocne mlzis…

    ja sa praveze totalne drzim tvojej argumentacie: „Čo však môžeme od pracujúcich očakávať, ak im zvýšime sociálne odvody s tým, že budú pracovať dlhšie a dostanú relatívne nižší dôchodok? No určite nie viac práce. Naopak, touto politikou demotivujeme ľudí pracovať, čo povedie k nižšiemu výkonu celého hospodárstva“

    moj argument je, ze po zavedeni reformy bude efekt prinajmensom taky isty, ako keby sme zvysili odvody, predlzili vek odchodu do dochodku, resp. znizili dochodky. este raz – cely moj citovany paper sa tomu detailne venuje. precitaj si ho, prosim. v skratke – 1. reforma nezmeni demograficky efekt na ekonomiku. 2. je jedno, ci nieco nazveme dan, odvod, naklady na reformu a pod. ak plati to, co tvrdis, tak pre motivaciu ludi pracovat je dolezite, kolko im ostane z toho, co zarobia (ja si to nie celkom myslim, ale snazim sa drzat tvojej argumentacie).

    ale kedze viem, ze si neunavny diskuter a vzdy chces mat posledne slovo, tak sa pokusm spravit ustretove kroky :-)

    1. teoreticky moze platit, ze niektorych ludi motivuje zasluhovost. ta je vyssia v zreformovanom systeme. ale na to nebolo treba privatizovat system, da sa zaviest aj v priebeznom systeme. NDC systemy tak aj funguju – zaznamenavaju, kto kolko odviedol a podla toho pocitaju narok na dochodok.
    2. viem si predstavit, ze by teoreticky fungovalo to, co tvrdis. teda ze ludia by boli po tejto reforme ochotnejsi pracovat, pretoze by nevnimali efekt marginalnej dane (a dik, ale nemusis ma poucovat o tom, co to je :-) ). fungovalo by to vtedy, keby si ludia neuvedomili, ze na nakladoch na prechod, na poplatkoch a pod. stratia vsetko to, co si myslia, ze akoze ziskali. cize v praxi by na reforme nic neziskali (akoze neziskaju), ale vo *vnimani* by nastala zmena. proste by sa nechali oblbnut reformnou retorikou. a sily tejto retoriky sa desim, ked dokazala spracovat aj inak velmi sofistikovaneho ekonoma z cerge :-D

    apropo – ja si myslim, ze vyska dani a odvodov ma pramaly vplyv na to, kolko bude kto pracovat. mozno to ma vplyv na platenie dani resp. odvodov, ale este som sa nestretol s clovekom, ktory by prestal pracovat, alebo obmedzil pracu kvoli zvyseniu dani. akoze nadavat na to, to vieme vsetci. a preto je tato pravicova retorika vcelku uspesna. ale zeby v praxi existoval vyznamny vztah medzi ochotou pracovat a vyskou dani… pochybujem, a to napriek mnozstvu sofistikovanych prepoctov, ktore ucelovo chrlia „nezavisle“ institucie. resp. asi existuje, ale dolezitejsich faktorov ovplyvnujucich ponuku a mnozstvo prace je podla vsetkeho viac.

    a este odporucane citanie pre teba, moj paper:
    http://www.priateliazeme.sk/cepa/pdf/dochodkova_reforma.pdf
    konkretne pozn. pod ciarou c. 28 – vidis sa tam, ako v zrkadle, vsak? :-)
    dalej – str. 48, druhy odstavec.

    a uz na teba asi nebudem reagovat, jedine, ze by si prisiel s niecim zasadnym ;-)

  • Braňo 24.12.2010 16:18

    Vraj, ze sebavedomie mi nechyba? Ivan, kto z nas dvoch tu kuje novu reformu dochodkov? ;-) Takisto reagovat musim, pretoze moj point je klucovy, i ked ty neustale budes musiet opakovat, ze nie je :-) Reforma meni sposob zdanovania a tym ma vplyv na celkovy output (co je opak toho, co tvrdi tvoja studia).
    .
    “moj argument je, ze po zavedeni reformy bude efekt prinajmensom taky isty, ako keby sme zvysili odvody, predlzili vek odchodu do dochodku, resp. znizili dochodky.”
    .
    V samotnom clanku som odkazoval na prace okolo Kotlikoffa, ktore hovoria presny opak. Nasledne som ukazal, ze tento argument neobstoji ani z pohladu mikroekonomickeho: druhy pilier je zasluhovy, preto nedemotivuje ludi pracovat.
    .
    “reforma nezmeni demograficky efekt na ekonomiku.”
    .
    V clanku som uviedol niekolko paperov, ktore tvrdia, ze prvy pilier sam zhorsuje demograficky problem. Druha uplne klucova vec, co som v clanku napisal je, ze nejde o hru s nulovym suctom, kvoli tax distortions, co opat mozem odcitovat.
    .
    “NDC systemy tak aj funguju – zaznamenavaju, kto kolko odviedol a podla toho pocitaju narok na dochodok.”
    .
    Presne tak. Avsak akokolvek je tato zmena lacnym nastrojom na zvysenie efektivnosti, tak sama o sebe stacit nemoze. Ludia sice vidia, ze cast zarobenych penazi ide avsak vidia, ze tato cast sa s kazdou dalsou vyplatou zmensuje, pretoze treba odvadzat viac pre sucasnu starsiu generaciu. To ich demotivuje. Preto napr. v takom Svedsku popri nich funguje povinny fund system a aj solidarny pilier. Zvlastne, ako sa tato krajina a samotna stokholmska skola neoliberalizovala, nie? ;-) Alebo ze by to bolo trosu inak?
    .
    “fungovalo by to vtedy, keby si ludia neuvedomili, ze na nakladoch na prechod, na poplatkoch a pod. stratia vsetko to, co si myslia, ze akoze ziskali.”
    .
    Nie. Opakujem. To, ze niekto musi zaplatit dlh neznamena pre motivaciu pracovat per se nic. Klucova je otazka, kolko ti zoberu z NAVYSE zarobenej koruny. Ako ta demotivuju napr. pausalne dane poplatky, ak nie su naviazane na mnozstvo prace?
    .
    Co sa tyka toho CERGE, tak pred cerge som nebol proti zalozeniu funded piliera. Druha vec je, ze CERGE je politicky lavicove, vid. Svejnar. Tretia vec je, ze to lavicovostou a pravicovostou nic nema. Ani Stiglitz tieto argumenty neodmieta a rovnako sa opiera o welfare analyzu, neoliberal jeden :-)
    .
    Mna desi to, ze sa v buducnosti tieto myslienky z blogu prenesu do skutocnosti :-) A to uz nebude sranda. Teda hlavne pre ludi, ktorych sa zamyslane kroky dotknu. Som si isty, ze samotny policy making bude sranda, vsak tito ludia su zodpovedni az v poslednom rade.
    .
    ” ja si myslim, ze vyska dani a odvodov ma pramaly vplyv na to, kolko bude kto pracovat. mozno to ma vplyv na platenie dani resp. odvodov, ale este som sa nestretol s clovekom, ktory by prestal pracovat, alebo obmedzil pracu kvoli zvyseniu dani.”
    .
    0. Ja si to myslim a stretol som takych dvoch, takze mam pravdu :P :-)
    1. Ivan, kolko ludi odislo na Slovensku do predcasneho dochodku len z dovodu, ze to bolo vyhodne a neoplatilo sa pracovat?
    2. Mam citovat papere (nie z INESSu), aby si uveril, ze na to ludia reaguju? Ci akykolvek prepocet, ktory tvrdi nieco ine ako je tvoj nazor, je automaticky ucelovy a nemam sa o nic pokusat? ;-)
    3. Co ma s tymto opat nejaka pravicova retorika? Ja nie som ziadny trt s bibliou od Misesa, ale zase ani od Marxa. Moje uvahy sa vobec neopieraju o ideologiu, snazim sa argumentovat vecne. Nikto predsa nehovori, ze faktorov ovplyvnujucich mnozstvo prace nie je viac, ale tvrdit, ze ludia marginalne dane ignoruju, pretoze ty si to myslis a nikoho takeho nepoznas, je nespravne.
    .
    Co sa tyka poznamky 28, tak nikde som nehovoril, ze je to nespravodlive.
    .
    CO sa tyka 48, tak nie, neargumentujem znizenim verejnych vydavkov. Naopak je tu spominany dlh (z titulu zachovania verejnych vydavkov).

  • Braňo 24.12.2010 16:35

    Skoro by som bol zabudol na darcek ;-)
    http://www.nber.org/papers/w10316

    “Why do Americans Work so Much More than Europeans?”

    The surprising finding is that this marginal tax rate accounts for the predominance of the differences at points in time and the large change in relative labor supply over time with the exception of the Italian labor supply in the early 1970s. This finding has important implications for policy, in particular for making social security programs solvent.

  • Ivan Lesay 25.12.2010 11:16

    brano. priznavam jedno poklznutie. totiz, ze som sa v slabej chvili zdoveril so svojimi pocitmi ohladom faktorov, ktore ovplyvnuju ponuku prace. naozaj to boli iba dojmy a zbytocne som ti nahral na smec. ked ale chces nahravku na matchball, tak mi skus odporucit nejaku serioznu studiu zo slovenskeho (alebo aspon stredoeuropskeho) prostredia, ktora uvedie poradie dolezitosti faktorov motivujucich k praci.

    v ostatnych veciach sa tocime dokola, a naozaj sa mi nechce opakovat. ale ako neideologickeho ekonoma (ktory vecne cituje kotlikoffa a g. beckera) sa ta pytam, ci napr. dlh plynuci z nakladov na prechod nebude mat ziaden vplyv na buduci output. ci min. 15% administrativne poplatky nebudu demotivujuce. a tak by som mohol pokracovat… .

    ty si vyberas jeden totalne marginalny faktor, ktory by dochodkova reforma teoreticky mohla docielit a totalne ignorujes vsetky ostatne, dolezitejsie veci.

  • Braňo 25.12.2010 13:48

    Ivan, ja som prebehol vacsinu klucovych clankov a nenasiel som jediny, co by tvrdil, ze tax distortions mozme pri analyze len tak zanedbat. Ak aj od tax distortions nejaky clanok vynimocne abstrahuje, tak explicitne uvadza preco (napr. ze Nemecky system je tak zasluhovy, ze je vlastne ako keby privatizovany a pod.).
    .
    Ci uz je vsak clanok za, alebo proti, tak takmer kazdy jeden z tych clankov analyzuje, co sa stane s mnozstvom prace (kapitalu, atd.), ak privatizujeme, a znizeme labor tax, ak privatizujeme 50%, ak je funkcia uzitocnosti hentaka, ak financujeme dlh cez DPH, cez labor tax, atd. atd. Proste to je jeden z klucovych bodov, ktory literatura analyzuje, a ktory len tak nemozes odbit slovami, ze je to marginalny faktor, lebo ty si o tom presvedceny.
    .
    Zatvaras oci pred efektom, ktory nikto pri serioznej analyze nevynechal a nespominas uplne klucovu vec (ani vo svojej studii). Cakal som, ze diskusia bude smerovat niekam uplne inam. Vsak o com je (akademicka) debata v oblasti dochodkov za poslednych 10 rokov? O intergeneracnom rozlozeni rizika.
    .
    Toto je to, co trh nedokaze riesit. Ako sa ma pracujuca generacia poistit voci riziku napriklad nizsej mzdy, ked buduca generacia este nie je na svete? Akokolvek je Arrow-Debreu ekvilibrium nerealisticke, tak v tomto pripade je uplne nemozne a tento risksharing musi robit stat.
    .
    Z tohto dovodu tu musi byt v nejakej forme prvy pilier a ked nejaky Karpis pride z privatizaciou celeho systemu, tak toto je prvy bod, ktory mu musite vytmavit. A nie sa hadat, ci linearne dane z prijmu nenarusaju volbu praca vs volny cas, co je pre kazdeho ekonoma stylized fact.
    .
    PS: Schvalne som do clanku napisal, ze ide aj o papere, ktore Kotlikoffa cituju a ich vysledky vobec nie su nutne v prospech jedneho riesenia. Kotlikoff spolu s Auerbachom len prisli ako prvy s OLG modelom pre social security analyzujucim dopady na pracu, kapital, atd., a preto ich takmer kazdy cituje.
    .
    PS 2: Becker je velmi aktivnym autorom, co sa tyka fertility a najdes len velmi malo paperov o fertilite, ktore by nezacinali citaciou Beckera a jeho quality-quantity trade-off. Nechapem naco sem vnasame politicke nazory.
    .
    PS 3: Kolkokrat budem musiet este zopakovat, ze celkova vyska poplatkov z nasporeneho dochodku (ktora mimochodom po novele 2009 nebude 15%, ale to je vedlajsie) nema nutne demotivacne ucinky, kedze vobec neberies do uvahy akou formou sa tieto poplatky vyberaju?
    .
    V zaciatkoch sporenia je marginalna dan vkladu okolo 1%. To preto, lebo nemas este nasporeny majetok, takze poplatok z majetku je pri kazdom vklade uplne zanedbatelny. Takato nizka dan ma zanedbatelne demotivacne ucinky. S rastom majetku vsak bude rast aj poplatok, takze tato dan bude stupat. Na druhej strane bude rastuca marginalna dan z vkladu offsetovana rastom vysky vkladu, kedze bude rast aj mzda. Toto vsetko treba zobrat do uvahy a az potom hovorit o demotivacii.

  • Ivan Lesay 25.12.2010 23:12

    vo svojej studii som sa efektom marginalnej dane nevenoval, to mas pravdu. studia vsak nemala byt prehladom literatury na temu dochodkovych reforiem. jej cielom bolo preskumat argumenty, ktore sa v prospech reformy prezentovali na slovensku. a nepamatam si, ze by uvedene efekty niekto spominal… si v tomto smere na slovensku asi prvy.

    mna ale, brano, v tejto suvislosti zaraza ina vec. tvoja neschopnost (neochota?) vnimat politicky kontext diskusii o dochodkovej reforme. ze mnohe publikacie svetovej banky, oecd, mmf, ale i nber a pod. vznikli na politicku objednavku, resp. do tejto objednavky dobre zapasovali. v polovci 90. rokov sa zistilo, ze privatizaciou soc. zabezpecenia mozno dostat velke peniaze na financne trhy (zacala sa politicky pripravovat takato moznost), a odvtedy sa zacali valit publikacie a papere, vratane tych, ktore citujes. niektore otvorene propagovali privatizaciu, ine akoze o nej zacali len uvazovat, „diskutovat“. jedno ale bolo iste – nastolili agendu.

    alebo si myslis, ze tento spin vznikol ako koncentrovana reakcia na demograficke prognozy? ozaj? mne nevadi, ze citujes kotlikoffa, beckera a inych. kazdy sa musi o nieco opierat. len mi pride naivna tvoja predstava, ze dokazes byt politicky nad vecou, mimo. ak sa bavime o reforme dochodkov a ty zacnes za klucovu uvadzat demotivaciu pracovat (akokolvek dobre ekonometricky dokumentovanu), tak ti sice mozem skusit dat (velmi) ciastocne za pravdu, ale zaroven mi je jasne, ze hras part v hre, mozno bez toho, ze by si si to uvedomoval. preto som na tie reci o demotivacii pracovat a o negativnom vplyve payg na fertilitu alergicky. niezeby to bolo uplne uplne absurdne, ale ucelovost z toho len tak cisi.

    je sice sympaticke, ze ty sa postavis medzi mna a karpisa, deklarujes apolitickost, ale to nestaci. ja sice verim tvojej uprimnej snahe byt vecnym a nestrannym ekonomom. ale aparat, s ktorym pracujes, z teba robi nastroj politickeho konfiktu, ci sa ti to paci, alebo nie. ako som napisal – dochodkova reforma nie je len predmetom akademickej diskusie, ale primarne politickeho boja. v usa napr. hra v tomto spore svoju presne urcenu rolu napriklad kotlikoff. a ty, hoci snad neumyselne, preberanim zastupnych argumentov, hras svoju rolu tu. preto som aj chcel, aby si napisal na blog.

    cize v skratke – my tu mozeme pokracovat v sermovani clankami o tom, ci sposob vyberania dane meni motivaciu ludi pracovat, a ci preto treba alebo netreba privatizovat dochodkovy system (mne osobne sa tym uz ale nechce stracat cas, lebo – to ti je uz snad jasne – sa mi vobec takto postavena otazka zda uplne komicka, vobec sa mi nechce akceptovat tuto agendu). chcem si len v tejto faze overit, ci si ty uvedomujes svoju politicku funkciu v takychto diskusiach?

  • Braňo 26.12.2010 2:05

    Ivan, uvedomujes si, ze tvoj postoj je prehnane nedovercivy? :-)
    .
    Ja nedokazem zhodnotit, ci clanok vznikol na politicku objednavku. Dokazem vsak zhodnotit, ci je clanok shit alebo len mensi shit a poznam, ked chce niekto zmanipulovat (prikraslit) vysledok. Ergo ja nepreberam argumenty. Moj myslienkovy postup nie je: som presvedceny praviciar (laviciar), takze som za (proti) privatizacii a preto vyhladam len clanky od Kotlikoffa (Stiglitza), pretoze viem, ze ma rovnaky nazor ako ja.
    .
    Argument, ze tax distortions a deadweight loss su klucove som pisal este tebe do diskusie predtym, nez som napisal svoj clanok. Ak sa ti javi, ze tento argument je na politicku objednavku vyfabrikovany istymu vedeckymi kruhmi, aby sa mohlo privatizovat, tak to budes musiet obvinit ekonomov este z 19. storocia, pretoze az tak daleko tento argument siaha.
    .
    Tax distortions su prva vec, ktora ekonoma napadne pri debate o efficiency gains. Obsahuje to snad kazdy jeden makro paper o social security, kedze snad kazda jedna funkcia uzitku domacnosti pozostava z volby kolko pracovat a kolko mat volneho casu. To, ze to u nas nikto nekomentoval iba ilustruje amaterizmus verejnej diskusie na Slovensku. Ale pokial viem, tak Melichercik z matfyzu sa niektorym aspektom reformy venoval.
    .
    Netusim, ake politicke pozadie ma Kotlikoff, ale ak nejake ma, tak by mu chlapici mali dat po prstoch, pretoze predstav si, ze pise aj (dost ostru) kritiku privatizacie:
    http://www.esplanner.com/press/pension-reform-triumph-form-over-substance
    .
    Takisto sa divim, preco financna lobby nezauradovala uz pocas Reagana, ked bol spusteny system v Chile, ale cakali az do polovice 90tych rokov. Nie som politolog, ale nemoze to mat suvislost s tym, ze diskusia sa zintenzivnuje s poklesom prostriedkov v americkom trust funde, s narastom poctu reforiem vo svete a s dostupnostou metod na analyzu social security?
    .
    Moja (implicitna) politicka funkcia je jasna. Upozornovat na amaterizmus policy makerov na Slovensku, aby sa neprijimali absurdne (extremne) opatrenia ignorujuce aj to malo, co ekonomia vie. V Trende som za komunistu, na Kriteku za neoliberala. Fair enough.

  • kri 03.01.2011 0:27

    funguje to tu?

  • kri 03.01.2011 0:36

    uz pri zavadzani 2. piliera bola zvysena miera odvodoveho zatazenia z 22% na 22,75% pre dochodkove poistenie (9+9+4,75). a to nielen sporiacim, ale aj tym cca 800 000 pracujucich, ktori nie su v 2. pilieri. toto uz nie je sranda a uz vtedy neslo o fazulky, o ziadne drobne. potom cca 100 mld. skk sa nepriamo dalo DSS z rezervneho fondu (privatizacia), pre neustale vytvaranu dieru vo fonde starobneho poistenia v SP)

    potom otazka na telo: akou zakladnou vlastnostou sa charakterizuje sukromne vlastnictvo?

    je nou disponovanie s nim. takze mily brano, ty mozes hovorit o svojom dochodku, o svojom ucte u dss, asi iba vo sne. ako to, ze teraz nim bude disponovat figel miesto teba?

    slabe vynosy.

    kolko kapitalizovanych dochodkovych systemov uz skrachovalo?
    argentina
    chile
    madarsko
    v polsku

    co tak dat do googlea meno dagoberto saez?

    ten je z chile. alebo o tom ako si chilania pospevuju: “best to die by 60″

    rizikove investovanie.

    nase dss vdaka vysokym poplatkom sposobili stav, ze takmer 90% “sporitelov” bolo od samotneho pociatku v strate. maju tam menej ako tam vlozili a to nerobil este zmeny fico.

    apropo, ficove zmeny. poplatok za vedenie DF bol mesacne 0,065%. fico ho znizil na 0,02. dnes spravuju dss 3,92 mld eur. ak by bola tato sadza od zaciatku 0,02% tak len na tomto poplatku uz ziskali dss 80 milionov eur za znehodnetenie “nasich” penazi.

    este k vynosom. tie su v priemere okolo nuly, zera, nothingu, nicoho. sranda, miklos si poziciava za 4,373%.

    hovori ti nieco pojem cisty vynos?

    figelovi asi nie. ty posles na ucet do dss, ktory nie je tvoj ako som vyssie opisal 100 eur. nejaky babrak v dss ho pozicia figelovi na dialnice s 5% urokom. a davaj ho splacat 105 eur (a to za predpokladu jednoduchecho urocenia) zlozene vyzera este inak.

    aka bola inflacia pocas fungovania DSS uhrnne? 18%, 19%

    ked si predstavim ten ozdravny balicek vlady na tento rok a 800 milionovy podiel na nom z radov pracujucich, to dava sumu, ktoru posle v tomto roku SP na ucty do DSS. nahoda? ani nahodou.

    cely narod musi trpiet zvysovanie nepriamych dani, znizovanie nezdanitelneho minima, aby si 1,5 miliona egoistov mohlo setrit na svoje dochodky.

    tu nie je rec o ziadnej efektivite, ale o slobode! o slobode nakladat s mojimi peniazmi tak ako ja uznam za vhodne a nie sa nechat coraz viac zdanovat pre primitivny exces niekolkych nevzdelancov typu kanika, pineru, miklosa.

    kym dnes treba na fond starobneho dochodku 1,34 mld eur tak o 20 – 25 rokov bude treba 3 mld eur. takze takymto tempom bude musiet byt tychto ozdravnych balickov so zvysujucimi sa danami este niekolko, minimalne 5-6!

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    ak myslite diskusiu pod tymto clankom, tak som v nej s branom zudelom pokracoval v mailoch.

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    Ivan, nie mal som namysli to, ze som chcel prispiet do tejto diskusie a moj trochu dlhsi prispevok ani po niekolkych pokusoch neodoslalo, pricom sa zobrazovala informacia o detekovani “double postu”, ale napriek tejto hlaske moj prispevok tu nebol a nie je zobrazeny.

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    tak to je zvlastne… doteraz som nezaznamenal takyto problem. skuste este raz, pripadne mi poslite prispevok mailom (redakcia@kriteko.sk) a ja ho tu skusim zverejnit.
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