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Je vládny dlh skutočne jediným problémom eurozóny?

Ivan Štefanec sa venuje vo svojom príspevku Je euro naozaj ohrozené? súčasným problémom eurozóny. Príspevok možno zhrnúť do dvoch myšlienok. Prvou je, že euro predstavuje obrovský úspech.

Po druhé, autor zastáva názor, že eurozóna sa dokáže dostať zo svojich problémov za predpokladu, že pristúpi ku konsolidácii verejných rozpočtov a reforiem podporujúcich konkurencieschopnosť a podnikateľské prostredie.

Sú však súčasné problémy v eurozóne čisto výsledkom nezodpovednej rozpočtovej politiky niektorých krajín? Sú teda jediné, čo eurozóna potrebuje, prísnejšie fiškálne pravidlá a dozor?

Tabuľky zachytávajú vývoj verejného dlhu a salda štátneho rozpočtu v pomere k HDP vo vybraných krajinách eurozóny a tiež priemer pre celú Európsku úniu v rokoch 2000-2009 (po kliknutí sa obrázok zväčší).

Áno, Grécko konzistentne dosahovalo vysoké rozpočtové schodky pri už aj tak vysokom štátnom dlhu. Írsko a Španielsko však dosahovali v období pred finančnou krízou rozpočtové prebytky a verejný dlh oboch krajín bol hlboko pod priemerom Európskej únie. Portugalsko síce vykazovalo rozpočtové deficity, verejný dlh sa ale stále nelíšil od európskeho priemeru a bol stále nižší, než v Nemecku a Francúzsku.

Čo z toho vyplýva? Keby v období pred krízou bola bývala existovala prísna rozpočtová kontrola na úrovni EÚ, po ktorej tak túži Nemecko a Francúzsko, problémy s ňou by malo skôr práve Nemecko a Francúzsko. Nie väčšina krajín eurozóny najviac zasiahnutých krízou.

Problémy eurozóny tak v skutočnosti prekračujú rámec rétoriky o nezodpovedných politikoch v niektorých krajinách. Po vzniku európskej menovej únie bolo možné badať na jednej strane konvergenciu úrokových mier a na druhej strane zastavenie procesu vyrovnávania rozdielov v životnej úrovni medzi jednotlivými krajinami eurozóny.

Podobne problematický bol aj nárast nerovnováhy platobných bilancií v rámci eurozóny, kde sever dosahoval vysoké prebytky bežných účtov a juh vysoké deficity. Znamená to, že problémom je nízka konkurencieschopnosť problematických krajín? Nie nevyhnutne.

Ako vysvetľuje Philip Whyte vo svojej eseji, za vysokými prebytkami obchodnej bilancie Nemecka je do veľkej miery neschopnosť investovať domáce úspory v rámci Nemecka. Na druhej strane tieto investície z Nemecka živili realitnú bublinu v Írsku a v Španielsku a viedli k posilňovaniu reálneho kurzu (ten vyjadruje pomer cenových hladín v jednej mene), a teda k zhoršovaniu ich obchodnej bilancie.

V tejto súvislosti je na mieste otázka, či a ako k tomuto vývoju prispelo euro. Známy euroskeptik a britský europoslanec Nigel Farage označil vo svojom prejave za hlavný dôvod krízy v Írsku práve prijatie eura. Spoločná mena mala viesť k nízkym úrokovým mieram, ktoré stimulovali nárast realitnej bubliny.

Tento názor si zaslúži pozornosť. Podobne aj názor, že politika internej devalvácie, ktorú sú zasiahnuté krajiny nútené podstúpiť, nie je nevyhnutná. Keby tieto krajiny mali svoje meny, oslabenie nominálneho kurzu by aspoň čiastočne dovolilo vyhnúť sa pomalej a bolestivej politike znižovania relatívnej cenovej hladiny udržiavaním ekonomiky pod svojim potenciálom a za cenu vysokej nezamestnanosti.

Na záver treba dodať, že to môže byť práve prílišná koncentrácia na fiškálnu konsolidáciu, ktorá môže ohroziť euro. Na jednej strane sa zatieňuje problém štrukturálnej nerovnováhy v rámci eurozóny.

Na druhej strane obrovské ekonomické a sociálne následky drastických reštrikcií v zasiahnutých krajinách zvyšujú pravdepodobnosť, že tieto krajiny dobrovoľne vystúpia z eurozóny, odmietnu  splácať dlhy a zvolia si tak oživenie po argentínskom vzore. S neblahými následkami pre nemecké banky a zvyšok eurozóny.

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  • Ulica, bitky a vízie | Blog JeToTak.sk 08.02.2012 1:37

    [...] napríklad v minulých článkoch Milana Vaňka alebo v mojom nedávnom [...]

  • Spoločná menová politika a kríza v eurozóne | Blog JeToTak.sk 08.03.2012 1:10

    [...] nezodpovednej rozpočtovej politiky dotknutých štátov som písal už v minulých príspevkoch (1,2).  Podobne sa tejto téme sa venoval aj Ivan [...]

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  • Francis 09.02.2017 22:05

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  • Benjamin 11.02.2017 19:20

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