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Řešení krize je v rámci daného systému nemožné

Po dvojtýždňovej vianočnej prestávke na blogu Kritická ekonómia opäť spúšťame prevádzku. Rok začíname rozhovorom s našou autorkou Ilonou Švihlíkovou. Rozhovor vyšiel koncom minulého roka v našom partnerskom Deníku Referendum. (kriteko)

Právě vychází Vaše kniha Globalizace a krize. Jakými zásadními změnami si prošla ekonomika v posledních desetiletích?
Ve své knize vycházím z hypotézy, že v sedmdesátých letech nastaly ve vyspělých zemích zásadní změny, které jsou dnes celkově ztotožňovány s procesem globalizace. Nejhlubší změnou, která je přímo navázána na Kondratjevovy cykly, je nasycení ekonomiky – dokončení poválečné obnovy a nástup pracovně úsporných technologií. Na tuto hloubkovou změnu pak reagovala ekonomická teorie – ústup od keynesiánství směrem k monetarismu a ekonomii strany nabídky, ze kterých postupně vykrystalizoval neoliberalismus. Tento ideologický směr, který je ovšem často vydáván za jedinou univerzální pravdu, pak zcela proměnil postavení státu jako suverénního ekonomického aktéra, podpořil rozšíření aktivit nadnárodních firem a mobilitu finančního kapitálu.

Změny se nevyhnuly ani trhu práce…
Ano, jednou z reakcí na pracovně úsporné technologie byla tzv. flexibilizace, která měla skrýt klesající možnost dostat plnohodnotný úvazek. Pracovní síla se zároveň z průmyslu začala přelévat do sektoru služeb s výsadním postavením finančnictví.

Nové, tzv. úsporné technologie, které zlevňují výrobu tak, že potřebují méně lidské práce, způsobují vysokou nezaměstnanost. Jak politici a ekonomové tento jev řeší a jak by se měl řešit?
Jak už jsem zmínila, jednou z reakcí bylo, že se začal odstraňovat „plýtvavý” sociální stát. Nejde primárně o jeho ufinancovatelnost – co je pro ekonomiku zhoubnější, sociální systém, nebo masová nezaměstnanost se všemi patologickými jevy? – ale o rozostřování společenských rozdílů, které se projevilo a stále bohužel projevuje ve stále menší ochotě střední třídy přispívat na sociální oblast. Přitom sociální stát nejenže vytváří stabilní společnost, ale také ji pro své fungování potřebuje. Flexibilizace práce byla takovou vlajkovou lodí USA – Spojené státy se dlouho chlubily, že mají poloviční nezaměstnanost vůči „rigidní” Evropě. Téměř nikdo už ale nezanalyzoval, jak vysoký je v USA podíl nedobrovolných částečných úvazků a rozšíření pracující chudoby. Až současná krize – kdy nezaměstnanost v USA je stejná jako průměr EU a má dlouhodobý charakter, ukazuje mýty o americkém trhu práce natvrdo. Takže řešení větším tlakem na pracovní sílu zcela selhalo a naopak ještě krizi zesílilo, protože vytvořilo alarmující nerovnosti.

Jak na tuto situaci reagovat?
V první řadě je třeba si uvědomit pravý stav věcí. Vypadá to banálně, ale byl by to velký úspěch. Řešení je několik, ale dokonce i ekonomové uvažující v rámci volného trhu jako třeba Brain či Ford se shodují v tom, že je nemůžeme čekat od trhu. Některá řešení zahrnují snížení pracovní doby – zde je možno zmínit francouzský návrh snížení na 35 hodin týdně. Jiné návrhy jdou dále, podstatou ale zůstává, že jejich uvedení v chod nemůže zařídit nikdo jiný než stát či obec.

Jak podle Vás v tržní ekonomice vznikají krize, jsou přirozené, nebo se jim dá vyhnout a jak?
Toto je jedna z nejspornějších otázek v ekonomické teorii. To, že se v kapitalistickém systému objevují hluboké krize, je nepopiratelné. Sporné je, jaké faktory jsou odpovědné za tzv. hospodářský cyklus. Osobně se domnívám, že příčinou krizí v kapitalistickém systému je otázka míry zisku (klesající míra zisku, nasycení ekonomiky, nadvýroba) spojená s technologickým vlivem, který ale není dán „vnějšně“, ale naopak je endogenní veličinou, je tedy propojen se systémem a vychází z něj. Je potřeba ovšem rozlišovat krátkodobé cykly, které mohou být způsobeny kombinací řady vlivů, a cykly dlouhodobé – Kondratjevovy. Krizím v tomto pojetí se vyhnout nedá – představují prostě zlom, a jsou pro kapitalistický systém dokonce nutností, což ovšem vede některé ekonomy až k tomu, že krize považují za žádoucí (navzdory všem sociálním dopadům).

V jaké fázi je monopolizace mezinárodních trhů? Je relevantní dnes hovořit o „volném trhu“?
Většina učebnic ekonomie vychází z ideálu tzv. dokonalé konkurence, kterou ovšem v reálu nenajdeme. Naopak, současný globální trh má v řadě odvětví silně oligopolní podobu. Vzhledem k tomu, že řada odvětví má silně klesající úspory z rozsahu, je logické, že až do krize pokračovala velice silná koncentrace – fúze a akvizice ve vyspělých zemích byly hlavním zdrojem přímých zahraničních investic. Fúze byly i jednou z cest, jak reagovat na ekonomické problémy: slučováním do stále větších a větších firem docházelo k úspoře nákladů, např. mzdových. Takže se národní státy střetávají se stále většími a většími firmami, s obrovským vlivem a aktivy, které překračují HDP středně velkých zemí.

Liší se současná krize od těch předchozích?
Pokud těmi předchozími krizemi myslíme krize devadesátých let, pak jednoduše tím, že vypukla v srdci kapitalistického systému – ve Spojených státech. I když se o ní hovoří jako o globální, není to zcela korektní. Zasáhla samozřejmě celý svět, ale řada rozvíjejících se ekonomik zaznamenává silný růst. Ekonomický propad a nárůst nezaměstnanosti byl převážně zaznamenán ve vyspělých zemích – protože ty se nacházejí v jiné fázi vývoje, v jiné fázi Kondratjevovy vlny, než např. Čína či Brazílie. Předchozí krize devadesátých let demonstrovaly fundamentální nerovnováhy v systému, ale dařilo se – především pomocí finančních trhů – přelévat je na semiperiferie. To, že nyní krize musela vypuknout ve Spojených státech, jen demonstruje, že problémy byly natolik závažné, že nešly nikam „přelít“. Zároveň je možno se domnívat, že se pro vyspělé země jedná o tzv. formační krizi – tedy o krizi, jejíž řešení je v rámci daného systému nemožné.

Co způsobuje nerovnost v systému?
Nerovnost je kapitalistickému systému vlastní. Dlouhou dobu bylo tabu ptát se, do jaké míry je nerovnost přirozená a pro společnost zdravá. Spolu s tím, jak od sedmdesátých let klesá podíl mezd na HDP na úkor zisku – silnějším faktorem je tedy kapitál než práce – se nerovnost prohlubuje. Nárůst polarizace společnosti je dán i reakcí neoliberálních ekonomických receptů – prominentním příkladem je snižování daní nejbohatším za George Bushe ml. zdůvodňované politikou „trickle down“, tedy že bohatství od těch nejbohatších proteče dolů. Další argument, proč přispívat bohatým, najdeme také v ČR: jedná se o ideologickou konstrukci, že bohatí jsou vždy nejschopnější a nejpilnější, a je tedy nesprávné je „trestat“ vyššími daněmi. Není divu, že v posledních desetiletích nerovnost ve většině vyspělých zemí silně narůstá, extrémem jsou ovšem Spojené státy, kde jedno procento nejbohatších zbytku společnosti úplně odlétlo. Mzdy se zcela odpojily od produktivity práce – mzda manažera je dnes i pětsetkrát větší než dělníka.

Jaký je vztah mezi globalizací a krizí?
Tak to je zásadní otázka celé knihy, čtenář ji tedy musí hledat tam, protože je obtížné do několika vět shrnout obsah celé knihy.

Dobrá, tedy jinak. Ekonomiku podle Vás ovládá již dávno pouze finanční sektor. Jaké to má důsledky?
Já se nedomnívám, že finanční sféra je epicentrem krize. Ona je spíš takovým obalem, kde se problémy – hluboké problémy nerovnosti, nerovnováhy a chybné reakce na technologickou změnu – projevily. Je to spíš symptom než pravá příčina. Finanční sféra bobtná od sedmdesátých let a postupně se projevuje vliv spekulací finančních derivátů a dalších inovativních prvků. Hlavní příčinou financializace je ovšem dle mého názoru obrovské množství likvidity, hotových peněz z nadměrných zisků, které hledají, kam se „vrtnout”. Reálné ekonomiky pro tyto zisky nejsou dostatečně atraktivní, a tak se zisky, byť často jen virtuální, hledají ve finanční sféře, což se projevuje nejen v bublinách různých aktiv (nemovitosti, ropa), ale nakonec i v krizích.

Do jaké míry se současná krize dotýká české ekonomiky a jak se k situaci staví naše vláda?
Krize se samozřejmě dotýká i nás, i když se nám ministr Kalousek ještě na sklonku roku 2008 snažil všem namluvit, že jsme jakýsi ostrůvek stability, který je „mimo dění“. Sice se nás krize primárně nedotkla přes kanál bankovně-finanční, ale musela se nás dotknout přes reálnou ekonomiku. Naše vláda, mám pocit, úplně rezignovala na jakékoliv pokusy o strategii české ekonomiky a místo toho jde cestou tupých škrtů – buď opravdu sami věří tomu, že „trh to zařídí sám od sebe“ a my se proškrtáme k prosperitě tím, jak se zcela nalepíme na vývoz Německa, nebo je to jen záminka k privatizaci veřejných služeb, od školství po zdravotnictví a hlavně penzijního systému.

A jak by tedy měla vláda situaci stabilizovat podle Vás?
Tak toto je opravdu zásadní otázka! Stabilizovat, jak, čím? Vyzkoušelo se všechno možné v těch uplynulých dekádách od sedmdesátých let – marginalizace faktoru práce, financializace, zadlužování na všech úrovních, zbrojení a vojenské konflikty, a nic z toho nevyřešilo ten kardinální problém pracovně úsporných technologií a nižší potřeby pracovní síly. Současná krize je plným vyhřeznutím akumulovaných problémů. Já se domnívám, že stabilizace v rámci současného systému není možná – není to spor o to, jestli bude nebo nebude fungovat kvantitativní uvolňování v USA, nebo jestli Čína revalvuje svůj yuan. Tato krize klade mnohem hlubší otázku: jak dál. V systémové teorii se systém v určité fázi zastabilizovat nedá – zvyšuje se chaos, a já se domnívám, že právě v současné době jsme v této fázi.

Co je to bifurkační bod, o kterém ve své knize píšete?
Bifurkační bod souvisí se zmiňovanou situací v předchozí otázce. Tento bod se objeví tehdy, kdy systém již není schopen se vnitřně stabilizovat. Bifurkace naznačuje přítomnost chaosu a formačního charakteru krize – otevírá se okno, které umožňuje řešení včetně radikální změny systému. Je ovšem naprosto klíčové tuto změnu podchytit, protože v průběhu bifurkace se radikálně (často velmi rychle a skokově) mění celý systém.

Pak se tedy na závěr nabízí ještě tato otázka: Jak by měl vypadat ekonomicko-sociální systém, ve kterém by krize nehrozila?
Pokud přijmeme hypotézu, že krize jsou ozdravné a že signalizují, že se systémem není jaksi něco v pořádku a jemné dolaďování nepomůže, pak krize můžeme chápat pozitivně jako určitou očistu, která nás navede na lepší a správnější cestu. Systém, který by měl naději na vyváženější fungování, musí být harmonický: environmentální a sociální oblast nesmějí být „luxusními“ přívěšky, ale integrální součástí ekonomického rozvažování ve všech oblastech. Současný systém je naprosto neudržitelný a škodí nejen ekosystému, ale naprosté většině lidstva. Zisk nemůže být měřítkem veškerého konání. Měl by to být systém demokratický – ovšem v plném a pravém smyslu toho slova, ne v té parodii, kterou zažíváme dnes. Je ale nasnadě, že skutečně odlišný systém vyžaduje i hlubokou změnu v uvažování člověka – k tomu, čemu Erich Fromm říká spíš „být nežli mít“.

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Komentáre (176)

  • Peter Copian 08.01.2011 15:14

    Riesit nezamestnanost znizovanim pracovneho casu sa mi zda divne. Ako keby ekonomicka cinnost bola privilegiom, ktore musi byt pridelovane vladou. Co keby radsej tie vysoko efektivne firmy jednoducho svoj super zisk sposobeny narastom produktivity prace radsej investovali (chceli/museli investovat) do kultury, vzdelania, vyskumu a vyvoja… Urcite by sa pri tom uzivilo aj zopar ludi, ktori ostali nepotrebni. Otazkou znie, ako kapitalistu donutit vzdat sa zisku, ktory ziskal mimochodom vlastne iba tym, ze vlastni vyrobne zdroje. Do najvyssej obete ho dnes nuti socialny stat, ktory sice drobnymi zapchava usta chudobe, ale nespravodlivost systemu, nerovnost rozdelenia moci a ani buducnost tejto planety neriesi, prinajlepsom tieto problemy zmiernuje. Naviac socialny stat v case, ked svedsky robotnik sutazi s indonezskym, je prakticky utopiou.

  • Avatar 08.01.2011 19:16

    Problém č. 1 je globalizácia, ktorá umožňuje globálnemu kapitálu vykorosťovať toho, koho práve potrebuje.
    Riešenie – jednine devolúcia na spôsob Moralesa, Cháveza … Nepriateľ je ten, kto má z krízy úžitok a toho treba poraziť – to je prvý nevyhnutný krok. Bez toho sa nepohneme nikam. Treba byť ale pripravený na to, že sa len tak nevzdá. Majú v rukách len papiere a čísla a serveroch a zatiaľ armádu.

    Toto je veľmi dobrý film:

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