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Koncom minulého roka sme sa na blogu venovali kríze a protikrízovým politikám z pohľadu tzv. rozvinutého sveta. Rozoberali sme najmä expanzívnu politiku kvantitatívneho peňažného uvoľňovania (QE2).

Jedna vec je, ako (ne)efektívne sú takéto politiky na vnútroštátnej scéne. Rovnako dôležitá je ale aj skutočnosť, že majú významné dopady aj mimo svojho územia, najčastejšie v tzv. rozvojových krajinách.

Pred pár dňami vyšiel otvorený list, v ktorom stovky renomovaných ekonómok a ekonómov žiadajú predstaviteľov USA, aby začali finančné regulácie vrátane obmedzenia pohybu kapitálu považovať za legitímny nástroj hospodárskej politiky.

Kde konkrétne je problém?

S krízou bojujú mnohé bohaté ekonomiky tak, že znižujú úrokové sadzby. Možnosť požičať si lacnejšie má motivovať podniky a domácnosti viac investovať a míňať, a tak obnoviť hospodársky rast.

Vedľajším účinkom politiky lacných úverov je ale tzv. problém carry trade. Finanční investori si požičajú za nízky úrok menu jednej krajiny, aby ju investovali (požičali ďalej) do meny takej krajiny, ktorá poskytuje vyšší úrok.

Okrem rýchleho potenciálneho zisku pre investorov má carry trade veľmi nepriaznivé účinky na cieľovú krajinu. Zhodnocuje domácu menu, čím robí vývoz menej konkurencieschopným. Nafukuje cenovú bublinu aktív (nehnuteľností, akcií a pod.). Obmedzuje autonómiu monetárnej politiky – ak chce napr. centrálna banka zabrániť prehriatiu ekonomiky zvýšením úrokovej sadzby, prílev horúcich peňazí, ktoré idú práve za výnosom zo zvýšeného úroku, jej úsilie celkom zmarí.

Efekty prílevu kapitálu však trvajú iba do najbližšieho signálu nestability na finančných trhoch. Vtedy investori hromadne sťahujú investovaný kapitál z „rizikových“ krajín. Prílevy a odlivy krátkodobého špekulatívneho kapitálu majú na ekonomiku devastujúce destabilizačné dopady.

Liberalizácia kapitálového účtu platobnej bilancie, ktorú pomerne dlho a pomerne dôsledne obhajovali zástancovia Washingtonského konsenzu, už dnes nie je žiaducou politikou. Situácia sa výrazne mení a čoraz viac krajín zavádza obmedzenia pohybu kapitálu.

V praxi môžu opatrenia nabrať formu dočasných daní na nákup krátkodobého dlhu, alebo dočasných požiadaviek, aby nákup krátkodobého dlhu sprevádzal termínovaný vklad do centrálnej banky v cieľovej krajine. Proti inovatívnym spôsobom, ako obísť kapitálové obmedzenia za pomoci derivátov, sa vymýšľajú rovnako novátorské opatrenia, ako im zabrániť.

Situácia v globálnej ekonomike, ale aj jej intelektuálna reflexia sa krízou dramaticky mení. Dokladá to aj vývoj vnímania obmedzovania kapitálových pohybov v Medzinárodnom menovom fonde.

Táto neslávne známa inštitúcia počas 90. rokov, ale vlastne ešte nedávno, nepovažovala obmedzenie pohybu kapitálu za prijateľné riešenie. Dnes však už z jej radov čoraz výraznejšie znie ich obhajoba, alebo prinajmenšom akceptovanie.

Riaditeľ MMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn priznal, že kapitálové obmedzenia môžu byť v niektorých prípadoch žiaduce. Dokonca (žeby v záblesku sebareflexie MMF?) nástojil, „aby sme boli pragmatickí“.

MMF dokonca publikoval pred rokom správu, ktorej záver mnohých znalcov nedávnych postojov a publikácií Fondu doslova šokoval. Autori v ňom tvrdia, že ak hospodárstvo funguje zhruba na úrovni potenciálu, ak je úroveň rezerv dostatočná, a ak nie je výmenný kurz podhodnotený, je zavedenie obmedzenia pohybu kapitálu opodstatnené.

Dôležité ale je, aby sa táto téma nestala iba témou tzv. rozvojových krajín. Hoci oficiálne pod hlavičkou priamych zahraničných investícií do finančného sektora, mnohé krajiny postkomunistickej Európy zažili prílev riskantných peňazí. Bubliny na trhu nehnuteľností a spotrebných úverov s krízou spľasli, a poukázali tak na zraniteľnosť financializovaných ekonomík (nedávno sme na blogu písali napr. o Estónsku).

Prekážky v pohybe kapitálu by ale prospeli napr. aj štátom, ktoré sa snažia o expanzívnu menovú politiku. Ak je oficiálnym cieľom napr. amerického QE2 podpora hospodárstva USA, mali by sa americkí predstavitelia postarať, aby „natlačené“ peniaze neodtiekli za hranice.

Podstata celého problému je celkom jednoduchá. Perverzná podoba finančného kapitalizmu, ktorá si za posledné dve desaťročia získala hegemóniu, nie je tá jediná. Financie by nemali byť samoúčelným prostriedkom na špekuláciu a rýchle zbohatnutie. Mali by byť prostriedkom, ako účinne alokovať kapitál do produktívnych sfér hospodárstva. A to nie je žiadna revolučná myšlienka.

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    [...] derivátového obchodovania sa čoraz viac spomína obmedzovanie pohybu kapitálu. Tejto téme som sa venoval vo svojom februárovom blogu a veľa sa toho [...]

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