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Kríza v Argentíne a štátny bankrot (1)

V súvislosti s dlhovým problémom viacerých krajín eurozóny sa v tlači čoraz častejšie spomína štátny bankrot, hoci sa nejedná o nič výnimočné. Zaujímavým príkladom je aj kríza v Argentíne a rozhodnutie argentínskej vlády odmietnuť splácanie dlhu v decembri 2001.

O tejto kríze sa možno podrobne dočítať napríklad v knihe Mojmíra Helíska Měnové krize (empirie a teorie). Podobne možno odporučiť článok ekonómov Weisbrota a Sandovala z amerického CEPRu, z ktorého tiež čerpám.

Ešte skôr, ako sa začnem zaoberať samotnou krízou, ktorá začala v roku 1999, treba sa vrátiť na prelom 80. a 90. rokov. Hlavným hospodárskym problémom v Argentíne v tomto čase bola prebiehajúca hyperinflácia.

Zlom nastal v apríli 1991, kedy došlo k radikálnej zmene hospodárskej politiky v podobe zriadenia menového výboru (currency board). Táto reforma zahŕňala vznik novej meny peso, ktorá nahradila austral v pomere 1:10 000 a zároveň peso bolo viazané na americký dolár v pomere 1:1.

Menový výbor prevzal funkciu centrálnej banky – vývoj domácej peňažnej zásoby bol naviazaný na vývoj dolárových rezerv. Argentína tak stratila kontrolu nad menovou politikou, čo sa pravdepodobne stalo osudným počas krízy v rokoch 1998-2002.

Možno uviesť dva hlavné dôvodov, prečo zaviesť menový výbor. Prvým je, že politika menového výboru môže dostať infláciu pod kontrolu. Odvodenie emitovania domácej meny od zahraničných rezerv znemožní centrálnej banke emitovať domácu menu cez nákup vládnych dlhopisov. Toto opatrenie tak vedie k potlačeniu inflačného vplyvu fiškálnej politiky.

Existuje ďalší protiinflačný kanál pôsobenia tejto politiky. Pokiaľ domáca inflácia prevyšuje infláciu u obchodných partnerov, dochádza pri pevnom nominálnom kurze ku zníženiu konkurencieschopnosti domácej produkcie. Následkom je zhoršenie zahraničného obchodu, tlak na znižovanie produkcie a cien a vyššia nezamestnanosť, ktorá tlmí rast miezd.

Podobne zhoršenie platobnej bilancie núti centrálnu banku v snahe zachovať nominálny kurz čerpať devízové rezervy, čím dochádza v režime menového výboru k znižovaniu domácej menovej zásoby a zvýšeniu úrokových mier, ktoré tlačia na spomalenie ekonomiky.

Druhým dôvodom je úvaha, že menový výbor by mohol viesť k obmedzeniu výskytu menových kríz. Domáca mena je totiž plne krytá zahraničnou menou a centrálna banka má dostatok devízových rezerv. V prípade odlivu kapitálu navyše dochádza v tomto režime automaticky k zvyšovaniu úrokových mier, ktoré by naopak mali odliv kapitálu brzdiť.

Aký bol výsledok zavedenia menového výboru v Argentíne? V prípade inflácie sa očakávania tvorcov novej hospodárskej politiky splnili a podarilo sa ju pomerne rýchlo dostať pod kontrolu – v roku 1996 dosiahla úroveň blízku nule.

Podobne sa podarilo v tomto období dosiahnuť rýchly hospodársky rast. V roku 1998 sa však Argentína prepadla do hlbokej krízy. Počas recesie došlo k poklesu HDP až o 20 %. Hospodársky prepad zároveň viedol k nárastu miery chudoby z 18,2 % domácností v októbri 1998 na 42,3 % v októbri 2002.

Ako kľúčová sa javí otázka, čo bolo príčinou zlomu vo vývoji v 90. rokoch, keď Argentína nakoniec skĺzla v roku 1999 do recesie. V tejto súvislosti sa uvádza niekoľko vysvetlení.

Helísek pripomína vlnu menových kríz, ktorá sa začala v roku 1997 v juhovýchodnej Ázii a v roku 1999 zasiahla Brazíliu. Vplyv týchto kríz sa na Argentínu podľa autora prejavil v dvoch smeroch. Kríza otriasla dôverou investorov v rozvojové krajiny, čo znížilo prílev zahraničného kapitálu. Brazílska menová kríza navyše spôsobila devalváciu brazílskeho realu. To sa nepriaznivo prejavilo na platobnej bilancii Argentíny.

Ako ďalšie dôvody spomína autor posilňovanie amerického dolára proti hlavným menám a pokles svetových cien pre argentínsky vývoz dôležitých surovín. Pri fixnom kurze pesa voči doláru tento vývoj viedol k ďalšiemu zníženiu konkurencieschopnosti Argentíny a zhoršovaniu platobnej bilancie. Pri udržiavaní menového výboru malo zhoršenie platobnej bilancie za následok čerpanie rezerv, a tým znižovanie domácej peňažnej zásoby, čo viedlo k vyšším úrokovým sadzbám a následne k negatívnym následkom pre reálnu ekonomiku.

Ekonomická kríza sa zákonite prejavila na verejných financiách. Podobne ako napríklad  v prípade súčasných problémov Írska, nemožno hovoriť o nezodpovednej fiškálnej politike vlády, nakoľko dlhová kvóta dosahovala pred krízou udržateľných 45 % z HDP. Názor, že práve fiškálna nezodpovednosť bola príčinou krízy, podrobili kritike takisto Weisbrot a Baker. Autori upozorňujú na fakt, že podiel vládnych výdavkov očistených od úrokových platieb zostal v období rokov 1993-2000 konštantne zhruba na 19 % HDP.

Zhoršenie rozpočtovej situácie tak bolo spôsobené na výdavkovej strane zvýšením úrokových platieb v súvislosti s rastúcimi úrokovými sadzbami a na príjmovej strane súvisel prepad s prebiehajúcou recesiou.

Autori ďalej dodávajú, že argentínsku rozpočtovú situáciu značne sťažila čiastočná privatizácia dôchodkového systému v roku 1994, ktorú silne podporovala Svetová banka. Podľa ich výpočtov zmeny súvisiace s prechodom na nový dôchodkový systém mali negatívny rozpočtový dopad, ktorý bol zhruba porovnateľný s rozpočtovými deficitmi Argentíny v krízových rokoch.

Dokončenie článku v pondelok.

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Komentáre (83)

  • Vajkový Bubuš Chlebík 10.02.2011 9:31

    Tento sajt uz sledujem len kvoli takymto clankom. Dal som mu sancu, ale vseobecne nepresvedcil. Kvalita vs. nekvalita je v pomere tak 1:10. Najhorsie su Vitkovicove videa, to je strasny odpad. Len nechapem, preco tu schopni ludia ako Vanko utracaju svoju energiu medzi tou biedou.

  • mato 10.02.2011 14:23

    som zvedavy na pokracovanie… a ten pomer 1:10 – nie je to malo? :D

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