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Hazardné hry, hlad a Radičovej trápna povinnosť

Jedlo ešte zďaleka nie je pre každého na tejto planéte samozrejmosťou. V chudobných krajinách ľudia vrátane detí stále na jeho nedostatok zomierajú a aj v bohatších štátoch je nemálo ľudí, ktorí trpia nedostatkom príp. nekvalitou potravín. O to frustrujúcejšie je zistiť, že aj jedlo sa stalo predmetom špekulácií a stávok, ktoré podľa všetkého prispievajú k zvýšeniu jeho cien, a teda zníženiu dostupnosti.

O aktuálnom raste cien potravín sa v uplynulom období dosť hovorilo. Rokovalo sa o ňom na stretnutí premiérok a premiérov V4, Nemecka, Rakúska a Ukrajiny. Okrem vzbure proti korupcii a represii štátnych režimov je sociálna nespokojnosť a rast cien potravín dôležitým spúšťačom aktuálnych arabských revolt. (Aj počas potravinovej krízy v roku 2008 viedol rast cien potravín k vzburám.)

No a najaktuálnejšie hovorila o neúnosných cenách potravín slovenská premiérka s ministrami hospodárstva a pôdohospodárstva v utorok. Vláda má v úmysle státisícom najchudobnejších ľudí na Slovensku rozdať múku a cestoviny.

Prečo svetové ceny potravín rastú

Správy o príčinách rastu cien jedla sa štandardne sústredia na faktory dopytu a ponuky. Rast počtu obyvateľov Zeme, tempo rastu Číny, Brazílie a iných rýchlo rastúcich ekonomík spôsobujú, že dopyt rastie. Ponuka, naopak, klesá v dôsledku neúrod spôsobených napríklad zmenou klímy. Výrobcovia biopalív majú dvojnásobne negatívny vplyv. Jednak prispievajú k zvýšenému dopytu po poľnohospodárskej produkcii. Na druhej strane tiež obmedzujú ponuku tým, že túto produkciu nevyužívajú na výrobu potravín.

Keď k tomuto všetkému pripočítame rast cien energií potrebných na výrobu a prepravu potravín, alebo predraženie potravín v dôsledku exportných obmedzení, bude nám jasné, prečo je jedlo stále drahšie.

Okrem vyššie uvedených fundamentálnych faktorov sa však čoraz viac začína hovoriť o vplyve, ktorý na ceny potravín môžu mať špekulácie na trhoch s derivátmi.

Ako pôvodne fungoval trh s derivátmi

Derivát je finančný nástroj, ktorého hodnota sa odvíja od hodnoty niečoho konkrétneho – v našom prípade jedla. V praxi je derivát vlastne zmluvou, ktorú medzi sebou uzatvárajú dve strany, aby sa poistili proti obávanému cenovému vývoju.

Napríklad pestovateľ-ka a odberateľ-ka pšenice sa dohodnú, že v presne stanovený dátum v budúcnosti za fixnú cenu (bez ohľadu na vtedy aktuálnu trhovú cenu pšenice) zrealizujú obchod s určeným množstvom tovaru. Tento typ derivátu sa nazýva termínovaná zmluva (future) a obom stranám zabezpečí elimináciu rizika nepriaznivého cenového vývoja.

V prípade, že sa dohodnutá cena bude v čase realizácie líšiť od trhovej, jedna strana obchodu prerobí, druhá zarobí. V praxi sa tieto obchody na trhu s derivátmi uzatvárajú prostredníctvom zúčtovacieho ústavu (clearing house), ktorý koordinuje a registruje predajné ponuky farmárov/-iek a páruje ich s kupujúcimi.

Od poistenia k špekulácii

Pôvodne sa teda trh s derivátmi využíval primárne na poisťovanie (hedging). Vývoj je ale taký, že momentálne už na ňom prevažujú nie komerční obchodníci, ale špekulatívni investori (hedžové fondy, dôchodkové fondy, investičné banky a pod.). Tí sa naň začali hromadne sťahovať po tom, čo za posledných desať rokov spľasla internetová bublina, po prepade na akciových trhoch, či na trhoch s nehnuteľnosťami a hypotékami.

Cieľom derivátových špekulantov nie je bezrizikový nákup suroviny, ale snaha na základe odhadu cenového vývoja realizovať zisk: Ak po nákupe derivátu trhová cena komodity stúpne, môže investor svoj derivát pred termínom vyrovnania predať skutočnému záujemcovi o komoditu. Zarobí rozdiel medzi zazmluvnenou a predajnou cenou.

Odhaduje sa, že špekulanti na derivátovom trhu dominujú v pomere 4:1. Pritom presne opačný pomer platil ešte pred desiatimi rokmi v prospech komerčných „hedžerov“.

Dôvod? Deregulácia

Tento vývoj má na svedomí deregulácia amerického trhu s termínovanými zmluvami na nákup komodít, za ktorú lobovali práve finanční investori, napr. Goldman Sachs (od 1:50). Zákon o „modernizácii“ trhu (Commodity Futures Modernization Act) z roku 2000 spôsobil, že obchodovanie prestalo byť obmedzované reálnym stavom zásob komodít. Ďalej napríklad zrušil obmedzenie, aby aspoň jedna zmluvná strana derivátového obchodu bola skutočný obchodník poisťujúci sa proti riziku – čiže obe strany môžu byť špekulanti.

Ak špekulatívni investori tvoria na derivátovom trhu menšinu, neškodia mu. Dokonca mu môžu prospievať prísunom likvidity. Keď mu ale – tak ako v súčasnosti – dominujú, nastávajú problémy – napr. nafúknutie cenovej bubliny.

V prvom rade – je takmer vylúčené, že by toľkú cenovú nestabilitu a nárast cien potravín spôsobili faktory ponuky a dopytu. Dáta tomu nenasvedčujú. Musí to byť teda niečo iné.

Vplyv špekulácií na cenu potravín

Jedným z najpravdepodobnejších dôvodov sú špekulácie na trhoch s derivátmi, konkrétne prostredníctvom fondov komoditných indexov. Tvorí ich niekoľko desiatok komodít a slúžia na to, aby sa finanční investori poistili proti klesajúcim výnosom v iných oblastiach investovania – tovary totiž majú sklon udržať si hodnotu v čase, keď sa investíciám inam nedarí .

Oproti komerčným hedžerom držia komoditné fondy svoje investície dlhšie, v očakávaní rastu cien. To prispieva k zvyšovaniu cien, čo zase láka ďalší špekulatívny kapitál, a to prispieva k nestabilite. Indexy sú navyše zložené prevažne z nepoľnohospodárskych komodít – preto ich napríklad ovplyvňuje aj cena ropy. Ak ropa dražie, spolu s ňou sa zvyšuje cena indexu, a teda aj v ňom obsiahnutých poľnohospodárskych výrobkov.

Zatiaľ sa nepodarilo určiť, v akej miere prispieva k rastu ceny potravín ten ktorý faktor – základné veličiny poľnohospodárskeho trhu (market fundamentals), ceny energií, panikárske nákupy zásob, či špekulácie rozoberané v tomto článku. Situácia je neprehľadná, pretože väčšina derivátových obchodov sa netransparentne odohráva bilaterálne, mimo burzy (over the counter). Je však zrejmé, že cenové pohyby sa špekuláciami prehlbujú.

Čo môže spraviť Slovensko

Premiérka Radičová má pravdu, ak tvrdí, že Slovensko na svetový vývoj cien potravín nemá dosah. O to dôležitejšie je však angažovať sa v národných a európskych riešeniach, ktoré sa núkajú.

V prvom rade, možno by stálo za to zamyslieť sa nad slovenským postojom k národnej potravinovej bezpečnosti. Druhá Dzurindova vláda zaujala pomerne jednoznačné stanovisko, keď dala od slovenských farmárov ruky preč a odkázala im, aby sa popasovali s konkurenciou na „voľnom“ trhu (voľný v úvodzovkách preto, lebo okolité krajiny poľnohospodárstvo dotujú viac, ako Slovensko). Ak nie sú naši schopní vyrábať lacnejšie, nie je problém, dovezieme.

Ivan Mikloš dlhodobo považuje poľnohospodárstvo za rezort nehodný prílišnej pozornosti. Súčasná vláda v tomto zmysle zachováva kontinuitu – sranduje na účet poľnohospodárov, alebo ich rovno bije.

Radičová teda na národnej úrovni stojí pred otázkou, či jej vláda nadviaže na dedičstvo poslednej pravicovej vlády a poľnohospodárstvo nebude podporovať. Potom ale naozaj všetci na Slovensku ostanú iba štatistami, ktorí sledujú vývoj potravinových cien na svetových trhoch. Druhou možnosťou je pripísať sektoru poľnohospodárstva strategický význam a podľa toho postupovať.

V druhom rade má slovenská vláda možnosť bojovať s cenami potravín aj nepriamo. Môže lepšie regulovať ceny energií. Môže znížiť DPH. Alebo – s istou nadsázkou – môže zrušiť II. pilier. Ten umožňuje, aby aj slovenské dôchodcovské eurá prispievali k špekuláciám na trhu s potravinami (samozrejme, pre zrušenie II. piliera máme aj omnoho pádnejšie dôvody).

Na európskej a globálnej úrovni Slovensko nie príliš zaváži, ale môže sa aspoň pridať na správnu stranu. Napr. Francúzsko si stanovilo potravinovú bezpečnosť a globálnu stabilitu cien potravín za svoju prioritu počas predsedníctva G20. Obzvlášť angažované stanovisko zastáva práve v snahe obmedziť špekulácie na komoditných trhoch.

Svoj plán predstavila aj Európska komisia a je len na Slovensku, či ho podporí. Ak niektorým slovenským dravcom zatuchnutá Európa smrdí, môžu sa inšpirovať v USA, kde prijali ešte odvážnejší zákon senátora Dodda a kongresmana Franka (Dodd-Frank Act).

Ak budú snahy Slovenska na národnej či nadnárodnej úrovni úspešné, bude si môcť premiérka ušetriť trápnu povinnosť prísť pred kamery a zahlásiť: „Otvárame sýpky chudákom“.

Záver

Technické podrobnosti toho, ako fungujú komoditné a finančné trhy, ako funguje ich prepojenie a ako sa na nich špekuluje, sú náročné na pochopenie. Podstata problému však nie je zložitá a v zásade iba opakuje už pomerne známy scenár. Financie sa odtrhli od reálnej ekonomiky a reálnych potrieb ľudí. Slúžia často iba na parazitické a neproduktívne obohatenie sa zopár špekulantov.

Na opačnej strane stoja ľudia, ktorí v tomto prípade doslova nemusia mať dať čo do úst. Takúto zvrátenú situáciu niekde – oprávnene – riešia revolúciou. U nás by ale zatiaľ stačila efektívna regulácia a trocha strategického národohospodárskeho uvažovania.

Krátka verzia tohto článku vychádza ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

Tento článok som sa snažil napísať tak, aby som objasnil a „prerozprával“ základný mechanizmus vplyvu špekulácie na ceny potravín. Zámerne som neodkazoval na štatistiky, grafy, tabuľky a pod. Záujemkyniam/-com o hlbšie poznanie problematiky odporúčam zdroje, z ktorých som vychádzal a na ktoré odkazujem, resp. dodatočné zdroje (v angličtine):

Správa osobitného spravodajcu OSN pre právo na potravu:

Olivier De Schutter: Food Commodities Speculation and Food Price Crises. Regulation to reduce the risks of price volatility

Články o potravinovej kríze na blogu TripleCrises:

TripleCrisis Food Crisis

Veľmi dobré prehľadové video, ktoré prístupne mapuje problematiku špekulácie na komoditných trhoch:

YouTube Preview Image
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Komentáre (57)

  • Feri 24.02.2011 10:50

    Absolútne skvelý článok, s ktorým absolútne súhlasím. Myslím že toto je cesta akou by sa malo kriteko uberať. Vďaka a len tak ďalej.

  • Lucy 24.02.2011 11:24

    Pochybujem, ze nas samoluby MF a jeho poskok Tvaroska, ci nasa vystailingovana premierka zabludia na tuto stranku . Ich riesenie problemov zatazuje, oni maju ine starosti, co este sprivatizovat ,kam umiestnit svojich kamaratov a aky fondik, kde priklepnu nejaky ten nedobytny milionik Eur, ktory bude vyciciavat statny rozpocet zariadia pre uzky okruh tzv podnikatelov, ci co este schvalit, aby zamestnanci zbytocne neobtazovali svojich zamestnancov nejakymi pravami, ci ako zabetonovat DSS, aby im nik neohrozil ich , statom zabezpeceny zdroj prijmov, tak ako to zabezpecil sukromnym zdravotnym poistovniam. Pre nas – obcanov, maju len jedno – zaplatit za to vsetko ucet.

  • Vajkový Bubuš Chlebík 24.02.2011 13:00

    Pokiaľ si je autor taký istý s veľkosťou vplyvu špekulantov, ako vysvetlí toto?
    http://pinus.bloguje.cz/880376-ceny-kakaa-a-spekulanti-na-derivatovych-trzich.php
    Podľa môjho názoru neuralgickým bodom článku vo všeobecnej časti je teoreticky a empiricky nepodložená “špekulácia”:
    “Oproti komerčným hedžerom držia komoditné fondy svoje investície dlhšie, v očakávaní rastu cien. To prispieva k zvyšovaniu cien, …”
    Neexistuje jediný ekonomický dôvod, pre ktorý by držiteľ futures, ktorý nemá v úmysle realizovať fyzické prebranie komodity, zvyšoval cenu. Iste, pokiaľ by dopyt na strane konečných príjemcov komodity bol (zásadne) vyšší ako ponuka na strane producentov, cena by rástla. Ale fondy nemajú v úmysle komodity fyzicky prebrať a skladovať. A všetci na trhu to vedia.

  • kri 24.02.2011 13:47

    Vajkový Bubuš Chlebík

    “Neexistuje jediný ekonomický dôvod, pre ktorý by držiteľ futures, ktorý nemá v úmysle realizovať fyzické prebranie komodity, zvyšoval cenu.”

    ale co by nie. je nim zisk, rozdiel medzi nakupnou a predajnou cenou. a pri fondoch kde sa tocia peniaze radovo v bilionoch dolarov ide o nemale peniaze.

    pinus by mal nastudovat toto:

    http://www.metoo.cz/content/view/13887

  • Vajkový Bubuš Chlebík 24.02.2011 14:38

    Lenze zisk sa realizuje len v pripade, ze sa spekulantom poziciu podari uzavriet na vyssej cenovej urovni nez nakupnej. Samotnym zelanim – nakupim a budem mat zisk – este nikto nikdy nezarobil.

    Ako vidno, ani v Tvojom, ani v mojom pripade sa to tiez akosi nepodarilo. Akonahle bolo jasne, ze ide len o spekulativny (alebo dokonca nahodny) nakup, cena sa vratila, ci spadla este hlbsie.

  • rado 25.02.2011 8:12

    argument “jednemu spekulantovi to nevyslo, takze ziadne spekulacie neexistuju” je v lepsom pripade nereprezentativny, v horsom vedome zavadzajuci.
    par zaujimavych studii a textov, ktore ilustruju vztah medzi financnymi trhmi a trhmi s potravinami.
    kratky komentar: http://www.networkideas.org/news/jan2011/news13_Food_Finance.htm
    dlhsia prezentacia: http://www.networkideas.org/ideasact/feb09/Beijing_Conference_09/Jayati_Ghosh.ppt
    a prepis prednasky: http://www.networkideas.org/feathm/may2008/ft22_Food_Crisis.htm
    … a dalsie (aby sa nepovedalo, ze uvadzam len nazory Jayati Ghosh):
    http://www.networkideas.org/feathm/jan2009/Peter_Rosset.pdf
    http://www.networkideas.org/news/jan2010/news13_Commodity_Price.htm

  • Vajkový Bubuš Chlebík 25.02.2011 13:42

    Prekrucas? Kde som napisal, ze “spekulacie neexistuju”?

  • I. Lesay 25.02.2011 14:30

    http://triplecrisis.com/food-price-volatility/
    Index funds generally bet “long,” on rising prices, and they hold their investments for a longer time than the typical commercial hedger. This has a tendency to push prices up, which attracts more speculative capital, which adds to the volatility.
    Overall, the number of derivatives contracts increased more than six-fold between 2002 and mid-2008, as these investment vehicles became a safe haven from the subprime crisis and financial meltdown. According to Masters and White, index fund purchases from 2003-7 already were higher than the futures market purchases of physical hedgers and traditional speculators combined. Then they doubled in the first half of 2008.
    It would be bad enough if speculative capital simply overwhelmed commercial hedging interests in these markets. But the speculation is actually more institutionally entrenched than that. Index funds rarely hold more than 30% of their value in agricultural commodities. In fact, in July 2008 the ratio for the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, by far the largest index fund with 63% of the market, held 75% energy futures and 10% grains futures, with the rest in minerals.
    So the movement of the index funds is driven by the price of oil, itself a highly speculative market with some 70% of futures investments coming from non-commercial speculators. Under such institutionalized structures, the price of oil drives the movement of the index funds and pushes up the prices of agricultural commodities, no matter what is happening to the fundamentals of supply and demand for soybeans or corn. Worse, the index funds are mandated to keep the value of their commodities in strict proportion, so that when the prices and value of energy products go up the funds have to buy more corn and soybean futures to maintain the mandated proportions. This represents yet another institutional impetus to buying agricultural futures regardless of the market fundamentals.
    What part of this picture don’t the speculation-deniers see? Finance capital now dominates commercial hedging in futures markets, index funds have become huge investment vehicles in uncertain economic times, and the index funds move with oil and minerals prices, dragging food prices along with them.

  • I. Lesay 25.02.2011 14:34

    http://www.srfood.org/images/stories/pdf/otherdocuments/20102309_briefing_note_02_en_ok.pdf

    As mentioned above in the section on speculation based on
    market fundamentals, speculation can be useful because
    it helps farmers and buyers determine prices. As such,
    ordinarily, futures prices are lower than spot prices, and this
    ordinary situation is known as “normal backwardation”.
    However, the effect of the commodities index funds appears
    to have been to throw the commodities futures markets into
    “contango”, producing a vicious circle of prices spiraling
    upward: the increased prices for futures initially led to small
    price increases on spot markets; sellers delayed sales in
    anticipation of more price increases; and buyers increased
    their purchases to put in stock for fear of even greater future
    price increases. As is demonstrated by Figure 2, when the .
    spot prices increased, this fed an increase in futures prices,
    which attracted even more speculation, thus setting the whole process into motion once again. Indeed, the whole structure of commodity index speculation was premised upon contango. Commodity index speculation was the gift that was designed to keep on giving.

  • kri 25.02.2011 19:33

    Vajkový Bubuš Chlebík

    “Ako vidno, ani v Tvojom, ani v mojom pripade sa to tiez akosi nepodarilo. Akonahle bolo jasne, ze ide len o spekulativny (alebo dokonca nahodny) nakup, cena sa vratila, ci spadla este hlbsie.”

    lenze nejde iba o iniciatora. pocas narastu ceny ako aj jej poklesu sa mohlo nabalit XY dalsich spekulantov, ktory v pohode uzavreli svoje kratke pozicie.

  • ant 26.02.2011 12:13

    Taketo uvazovanie nasim politikom bohuzial chyba, oni vedia len deregulovat a privatizovat a potom deregulovat a privatizovat a potom …
    Skoda, ze sa malo angazujete politicky, myslim, ze po zlyhaniach Smeru by bol tu priestor pre dalsiu lavicu, ktora by sa postavila proti zlatokopom v politike.

  • salamoon 26.02.2011 20:20

    myslim ze okrem spomenutych (burzovi spekulanti atd.) k vyssim cenam asi prispievaju aj coraz silnejsie potravinove korporatne oligopoly, kt. vlastnia v podstate patenty na absolutnu vacsinu geneticky modifikovanych a v sucasnosti predavanych semien (kukurica,obilie, bavlna, ryza …) co predrazuje naklady drobnych farmarov/rolnikov, kt. ich nemozu pouzivat a opatovne siat len tak ‘bez platenia”, tito potom nedokazu konkurovat velkym hracom a zaroven majitelom tychto patentov, kt. ich pomalicky konkurencne pod vyskou vysokych pokut, sudnych zalob, celkovymi nakladmi na pestovanie atd likviduju…alebo sa mylim ?

  • Lucy 03.03.2011 13:08

    Ekonomika
    Slovákom ceny skočili najviac v Európe
    Marcela Šimková | 1. marca 2011 6:00
    Slováci zažili v úvode roka najväčší cenový skok zo všetkých obyvateľov Európy. V januári za tovary a služby podľa Európskeho štatistického úradu zaplatili priemerne oproti koncu vlaňajška o 2,1 percenta viac. V celej Európskej únii priemerne ceny rástli o 0,4 percenta.

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