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Teória optimálnej menovej oblasti a kríza v eurozóne (2)

Dokončenie článku zo včera.

Môže nám teória optimálnych menových oblastí (predstavená vo včerajšom príspevku) pomôcť porozumieť súčasným problémom v eurozóne? Sú súčasné problémy následkom toho, že eurozóna nie je optimálnou menovou oblasťou?

Bohužiaľ, ekonómovia a ekonómky venujúci-e sa teórii optimálnych menových oblastí neposkytli formálny test na určenie, či prínosy menovej oblasti prevyšujú jej náklady. Nevedia teda formálne zhodnotiť, či eurozóna optimálnou menovou oblasťou je alebo nie je.

Súčasné problémy v eurozóne sa však dajú do istej miery interpretovať ako následok skutočnosti, že eurozóna zaostáva vo viacerých charakteristikách optimálnych menových oblastí.

Než sa o to pokúsim, treba sa najprv vysporiadať s názorom, že vývoj v eurozóne možno interpretovať ako problém nezodpovedného vládneho zadlženia. S týmto názorom som už polemizoval v staršom príspevku.

Podobne som odkázal na názor, že skutočným problémom eurozóny, z ktorého vyplynuli aj rozpočtové ťažkosti problémových  krajín, je štrukturálna nerovnováha. Nerovnováha v tom, že centrum na čele s Nemeckom zaznamenáva značné prebytky obchodnej bilancie a, naopak, periféria trpí jej deficitmi.

Táto nerovnováha však nemusí byť výsledkom nekonkurencieschopnosti periférie, ale práve naopak neschopnosti Nemecka investovať značné úspory v rámci domácej ekonomiky. Tieto nemecké úspory následne „kŕmili“ realitnú bublinu vo viacerých krajinách periférie, čo viedlo k inflačnému vývoju, a teda strate konkurencieschopnosti týchto krajín.

Po otrasoch na svetových finančných trhoch, spľasnutí realitných bublín a zastavení kapitálových tokoch z centra do periférie nastala v eurozóne situácia podobná nerovnováhe v Mundellovom príklade. Na jednej strane periféria prežíva deficity obchodnej bilancie, deflačné tlaky a pokles ekonomiky.

Na druhej strane centrum zaznamenáva prebytky obchodnej bilancie a prežíva pozitívny ekonomický vývoj so zvýšenými inflačnými tlakmi. A podobne aj v eurozóne spoločná menová politika nedokáže stabilizovať obe časti naraz.

Na fakt, že jednotlivé európske krajiny prežívajú špecifické ponukové a dopytové šoky vo výrazne väčšej miere ako jednotlivé štáty v rámci Spojených štátov, upozornili ekonómovia  Bayoumi a Eichengreen už dávno pred vznikom eura. Podobné výsledky mali empirické štúdie porovnávajúce ostatné charakteristiky ako mobilita práce a flexibilita cien a miezd.

Napriek tomu sa domnievam, že by bolo nepresné zjednodušene interpretovať súčasne problémy ako výsledok asymetrických vonkajších šokov v tradícii Mundella. Súčasný stav je výsledok dlhodobého vývoja a je možné, že veľkú úlohu v tomto vývoji zohralo práve euro a spoločná menová politika, ktorá priniesla konvergenciu úrokových mier periférie na nízku nemeckú úroveň.

Nízke úrokové miery prispievali k vyššiemu zadlžovaniu súkromného (a v prípade Grécka aj verejného) sektora periférie a stimulovali nárast bublín a prehrievanie ekonomiky. Prehrievanie niektorých ekonomík periférie naznačuje aj pohľad na odhad produkčnej medzery[1] od MMF (po kliknutí sa graf zväčší).

Ak opomenieme metodologické ťažkosti odhadu produkčnej medzery[2], v prípade Španielska, Írska a Grécka (ale nie Portugalska) skutočne možno badať značný nárast indikátora produkčnej medzery v predkrízovom období ako aj značný a stále pretrvávajúci následný pokles. Výsledkom tohto „bublinového“ vývoja bol spomínaný relatívny nárast cien a mzdových nákladov periférie oproti centru, a teda strata konkurencieschopnosti periférie.

Ako narovnať vzniknutú nerovnováhu? Ako nám Mundellov príklad ukázal, nastolenie rovnováhy môže nastať (za predpokladu, že vylúčime možnosť opätovného zavedenia plávajúceho kurzu) len dvoma spôsobmi alebo ich kombináciou.

Jednou krajnou možnosťou je nárast cien a miezd v rámci prosperujúceho centra. Druhou je pokles cien a miezd periférie za cenu udržiavania ich ekonomík pod potenciálom, s vysokou nezamestnanosťou a so súvisiacimi sociálnymi nákladmi.

Ako však Paul Krugman upozorňuje na svojom blogu, politika Európskej centrálnej banky, ktorá prísne sleduje cenovú stabilitu, prenáša bremeno nastolenia rovnováhy práve na perifériu. K tomu však treba dodať, že presné rozloženie bremena nastolenia rovnováhy má aj implikácie pre vývoj dlhového problému krajín periférie.

Ak by nastolenie rovnováhy nastalo vo väčšej miere cez rast cien a miezd v rámci centra, tlak na pokles ekonomík periférie by sa znížil. Silnejšia ekonomika periférie by samozrejme značne zlepšila aj rozpočtovú situáciu týchto ekonomík.


[1] Produkčná medzera (output gap) vyjadruje, do akej miery ekonomika využíva svoj produkčný potenciál. Potenciálny produkt ekonomiky vyjadruje  úroveň produkcie, ktorá je konzistentná s mierou nezamestnanosti (nazývaná aj prirodzená miera nezamestnanosti), pri ktorej nevznikajú inflačné tlaky. Ak je produkčná medzera pozitívna, a ekonomika teda funguje nad svojim potenciálnym výkonom, v ekonomike nastáva akcelerácia rastu cien a miezd. Naopak, negatívna medzera poukazuje na fakt, že ekonomika nedostatočne využíva voľné kapacity a rast cien a miezd sa spomaľuje.

[2] Problematikou sa zaoberá a na slovenské pomery aplikuje napríklad analýza Inštitútu finančnej politiky.

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  • Keď kapitán zakopne… | Blog JeToTak.sk 25.01.2012 1:27

    [...] rýchlejšie – v druhom prípade sa to týkalo periférie eurozóny (o tom, prečo to tak bolo, písal na Kriteku Milan Vaňko a onedlho napíše znova). Tu niekde sú korene rastu vnútorných nerovnováh v rámci [...]

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