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Zlyhanie plánu pre Grécko

Reštrukturalizácia gréckeho dlhu je už de facto na stole. Predseda euroskupiny Jean-Claude Juncker vyhlásil, že ak záchranné a úsporné opatrenia nebudú stačiť, bude treba zvážiť „reprofiláciu“ gréckeho dlhu. Makroekonomické výsledky Grécka poukazujú na to, že program založený na škrtoch zlyháva. Liberálni analytici tvrdia, že grécka vláda nie je dosť dôsledná. Problémom však nie je nedostatok dôslednosti, ale skôr katastrofálne dôsledky dôsledných úsporných politík. Tie predĺžili hospodársky prepad a zväčšili bremeno dlhu.

Európska komisia a Medzinárodný menový fond naordinovali program úspor, ktorého cieľom je znížiť mzdy vo verejnom sektore, dôchodky, a celkovo verejné výdavky na jednej strane, a podporiť privatizáciu na strane druhej. Hlavným problémom rozpočtu však nie je strana výdavkov, ale nízke príjmy z daní. Tie sú spôsobené najmä daňovými únikmi zo strany pomerne zámožných skupín obyvateľstva a neefektívny výber daní. Veci týkajúce sa daní však v úspornom programe EÚ a MMF hrajú iba vedľajšiu úlohu. Program sa tak zameriava na nesprávnu stranu rozpočtového problému.

Drakonické úsporné politiky zásadne znižujú domáci dopyt. Grécko malo v roku 2010 najrýchlejšie upadajúce hospodárstvo v rámci EÚ. HDP klesol o 4,2 % a recesia pokračuje. Za prvé štyri mesiace roku 2010 klesol predaj áut v porovnaní s rovnakým obdobím za minulý rok približne o polovicu. Počet stavebných povolení v januári 2011 klesol v porovnaní s tým istým mesiacom predošlého roka o 62 %. To svedčí o mimoriadnej tvrdosti krízy. Neprekvapí, že nezamestnanosť rastie – jej miera na konci roku 2010 bola 14,1 % a rastie ďalej.

Obrovský prepad nepriaznivo vplýva na daňové príjmy. Nedarí sa plniť rozpočtové ciele programu EÚ a MMF. Príčinou nie je nedostatok odhodlania v škrtaní výdavkov, ale drastický pokles HDP spôsobený úspornými politikami. Kvôli recesii dlhové zaťaženie rastie.

V nedávnom komentári vo Financial Times Martin Wolf poukázal, že zoči-voči pokračujúcemu prepadu a vysokým a stále rastúcim úrokovým mieram Grécko nemá realistickú šancu splácať svoje dlhy. Mnoho pozorovateľov považuje reštrukturalizáciu gréckeho dlhu za nevyhnutnú. V takom prípade k nej ale treba pristúpiť radšej skôr, ako neskôr. Už teraz sa objavujú správy o tom, že mnoho ľudí v Grécku uvažuje, či by nebolo rozumnejšie uložiť peniaze v cyperských bankách namiesto gréckych. Rastúca neistota sa stáva samostatným krízovým faktorom.

Voči myšlienke reštrukturalizovať grécky dlh je v EÚ veľký odpor. Proti zníženiu dlhu sú napríklad nemecká kancelárka Angela Merkelová a nová rakúska ministerka financií Maria Fekterová. Už spomínaný predseda euroskupiny Jean-Claude Juncker zvažuje iba najmiernejšiu formu reštrukturalizácie dlhu, konkrétne reprofiláciu, teda dobrovoľné ústupky jednotlivých veriteľov z úverových podmienok. Nevyhnutné však ale asi bude povinné zníženie istiny i úrokovej miery

Samotné zníženie dlhu by však aj tak nestačilo na prekonanie krízy v Grécku. Súčasná kríza má korene do značnej miery v slabej priemyselnej štruktúre a vo vysokom deficite bežného účtu. Členstvo v eurozóne tieto problémy iba zhoršilo. Grécke, portugalské, španielske, či talianske deficity bežného účtu sú len druhou stranou nemeckého prebytku na bežnom účte. V roku 2007 obchodné prebytky s Talianskom, Gréckom, Portugalskom, Španielskom a Írskom predstavovali 27,5 % celkového prebytku obchodnej bilancie Nemecka a 2,24 % nemeckého HDP.

Ak sa má toto napätie v eurozóne znížiť, Nemecko bude musieť prijať expanzívnejšie mzdové a rozpočtové politiky a bude tiež musieť prestať s agresívnym ťahom na export. Dodatočne bude tiež potrebné, aby zreformovaná regionálna politika EÚ prispela k posilneniu miestnych produktívnych štruktúr na periférii.

Ak sa v EÚ neodohrajú štrukturálne zmeny, ktoré by adresovali problém nerovnomerného rozvoja v Európe, krajiny na periférii Únie ako Grécko budú s najväčšou pravdepodobnosťou nútené v dlhodobom horizonte odísť z eurozóny. To jediné im zostane na ochranu svojej národnej ekonomiky a na zníženie deficitu obchodnej bilancie a bežného účtu. Cena za prípadný odchod z eurozóny a devalváciu národnej meny by bola vysoká. A rozpad eurozóny by celkom určite mal negatívny dopad aj na krajiny centra EÚ ako Nemecko, ale tiež na ekonomiky silne naviazané na nemecký exportný priemysel, teda aj na Slovensko.

Skrátená verzia článku vyšla ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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  • dantheman 04.06.2011 11:41

    ..kym ‘austerity’ sa vzdy hodi na tu najslabsiu socialnu skupinu v tomktorom clenskom state, EU a jej posluhovaci si idu svoje vydavky zvysit o 5pc aby mali na ‘lavish partying’ a honosny zivot darmozracov..

    EUSSR politicians wasting taxpayers cash on themselves (02Jun11)
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    Na Grecko sa budu sypat peniaze ci splnia podmienky bail-out-ov alebo nie a to z jednoducheho dovodu, ak defaultuje Grecko, okamzite sa stavaju banky inych europskych statov nesolventne a cely domcek z karat sa zruti, som zvedavy ako dlho sa im bude darit oddialovat tento nevyhnutny koniec celej zasranej socialistickej Eurozony..

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