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Paradox dôveryhodnosti a spoločné eurobondy (1)

V súvislosti s rastúcim odporom k mechanizmom zameraným na riešenie dlhových problémov v rámci eurozóny mi prišlo vhodné upozorniť na článok belgického ekonóma Paula De Grauweho. Analyzuje problematiku dlhov v menovej únii a možné riešenia. Autor prichádza k záveru, že eurozóna potrebuje inštitucionálnu reformu, ktorá by zabránila prehlbovaniu fiškálnych problémov viacerých krajín eurozóny. Za hlavný problém však nepovažuje fiškálnu nezodpovednosť vlád, ale schopnosť trhového sentimentu priviesť vlády členov menovej únie do bankrotu.

De Grauwe poukazuje na očividný paradox. Ako možno vidieť na Grafe 1, od začiatku finančnej krízy rástol vládny dlh v pomere k HDP rýchlejšie vo Veľkej Británii než v Španielsku. V súčasnosti je dlh Veľkej Británie o 17 percentuálnych bodov vyšší, ako v prípade Španielska.

Graf 2 však ukazuje, že v roku 2010 začal prudko narastať pomer výnosov španielskych a britských dlhopisov. Tento pomer dosiahol začiatkom roka 2011 až 200 bázických bodov. Tento vývoj ukazuje, že napriek tomu, že dlhová situácia Španielska je relatívne lepšia ako Veľkej Británie, finančné trhy prisudzujú Španielsku vyššie riziko nesolventnosti.

Graf 1: Hrubý vládny dlh (% HDP)

Zdroj: Európska komisia, Ameco, prevzaté z De Grauwe (2011)

Vysvetlenie podľa De Grauweho spočíva v tom, že Španielsko ako člen menovej únie stratilo kontrolu nad menou, v ktorej emituje vládny dlh. Tento kľúčový rozdiel totiž vytvára priestor pre finančné trhy dotlačiť vlády v podobnej situácii k nesolventnosti.

Graf 2: Výnosy na 10-ročných vládnych dlhopisoch

Zdroj: Datastream, prevzaté z De Grauwe (2011)

Takúto schopnosť však finančné trhy nemajú v prípade krajín, kde vláda emituje dlhopisy v mene, ktorú centrálna banka danej krajiny ovláda. Na pochopenie tohto problému sa treba zamyslieť, čo by sa stalo, keby investori stratili dôveru v schopnosť vlády splácať svoje záväzky v prípade Veľkej Británie na jednej strane a Španielska na druhej.

Keby sa investori začali zbavovať britských vládnych dlhopisov, ich výnosy by rástli.[1] Keďže je však pravdepodobné, že by sa získaných libier chceli zbaviť, libra by oslabovala až dovtedy, kým by sa našli investori ochotní dané libry nakúpiť. Každopádne spomínané libry ostávajú súčasťou domácej peňažnej zásoby a sú investované do domácich aktív, čiastočne s veľkou pravdepodobnosťou spätne do vládneho dlhu.

Aj v prípade, keby britská vláda mala problém umiestniť dostatok dlhopisov pri rozumnej úrokovej miere, môže však vláda donútiť zasiahnuť Bank of England z pozície veriteľa poslednej inštancie a dodať vláde potrebnú likviditu. Finančné trhy tak nedisponujú schopnosťou ohroziť solventnosť britskej vlády.

V prípade Španielska je situácia odlišná. Neexistuje žiadny vyrovnávajúci mechanizmus v podobe výmenného kurzu a španielska peňažná zásoba sa znižuje. Podobne španielska vláda nemôže donútiť ECB nakupovať španielsky vládny dlh. Strata dôvery investorov v španielsky vládny dlh a nárast požadovanej úrokovej miery môže teda potenciálne priviesť španielsku vládu k nesolventnosti.

Ďalší rozdiel spočíva v dopadoch na reálnu ekonomiku. Oslabenie meny v britskom príklade podporuje zahraničný obchod krajiny a zvyšuje hospodársky rast a mieru inflácie. To jednak priamo zlepšuje rozpočtovú situáciu, ako aj znižuje primárny prebytok rozpočtu (prebytok rozpočtu mimo úrokových platieb) potrebný na stabilizáciu pomeru dlhu k HDP.[2] Pokles peňažnej zásoby Španielska má naopak negatívny dopad na reálnu ekonomiku a ďalej zhoršuje dlhový problém.

De Grauwe upozorňuje, že pri súčasnom nominálnom raste, nominálnych úrokových mierach a dlhových pomerov Španielska a Veľkej Británie potrebný primárny prebytok dosahuje 2,3 % v prípade Španielska a -1,21 % v prípade Veľkej Británie, a to aj napriek vyššiemu dlhovému pomeru Veľkej Británie.

V prípade postihnutých krajín eurozóny nastávajú aj ďalšie komplikácie. Nakoľko domáci bankový sektor spravidla značne investuje do domáceho vládneho dlhu, odsun zahraničných investorov sa negatívne prejaví na súvahe domácich bank. Podobne zníženie domácej peňažnej zásoby negatívne ovplyvní likviditu domáceho bankového sektora. Navyše vysoká miera integrácie finančných trhov v rámci menovej únie vedie k ľahkému prenosu problémov do iných krajín únie.

Ďalším problémom krajín eurozóny je obmedzenie použitia fiškálnej politiky na stabilizáciu ekonomiky. Recesia a s ňou spojená zhoršená fiškálna situácia môže vyvolať nedôveru finančných trhov a následne viesť k tlaku na reštrikčné pro-cyklické opatrenia, ktoré len ďalej prehlbujú recesiu. Ako De Grauwe zdôrazňuje, ak menová únia vedie k zamedzeniu stabilizačnej úlohy fiškálnej politiky so zodpovedajúcimi ekonomickými a sociálnymi následkami, takúto menovú úniu sa dá z politického a sociálneho hľadiska len ťažko udržať.

Uvedené príklady poukazujú na schopnosť finančných trhov priviesť členov eurozóny do platobnej neschopnosti. Očakávania trhov o možnej neschopnosti vlád splácať svoje záväzky môžu spustiť špirálu odlivu likvidity, nárastu úrokových mier a zhoršovania ekonomickej situácie, ktoré vyústia do defaultu zasiahnutých vlád, a teda k sebanaplneniu pôvodných očakávaní.

Je táto situácia prospešná pre eurozónu? Na jednej strane by mohol tento diktát trhu viesť k vyššej rozpočtovej disciplíne vlád eurozóny. Ako však De Grauwe konštatuje, finančná kríza otriasla dôverou vo finančné trhy. Správanie finančných trhov sa zdá byť často poznačené prílišným optimizmom v dobrých časoch a naopak prílišným pesimizmom v horších časoch. Práve tento prílišný pesimizmus tlačí viaceré štáty eurozóny bližšie k bankrotu.

K tomuto vývoju by však nedochádzalo, keby postihnuté krajiny emitovali dlh v mene, ktorú kontrolujú, alebo keby v rámci eurozóny existoval mechanizmus, ktorý by riešil nesúlad medzi centralizovanou menovou politikou a decentralizovanými fiškálnymi politikami.

Vyhlásenia politikov, ktorí a priori odmietajú akékoľvek podobné snahy kvôli neochote podporovať nezodpovedné vlády[3], síce rezonujú s väčšinou voličov, ale vôbec neprispievajú k riešeniu systémových problémov eurozóny.

Naopak, vhodne načasovaný De Grauweho článok poukazuje na potrebu inštitucionálnej reformy eurozóny, ktorá by reagovala na opísané problémy. Len tak možno odstrániť zraniteľnosť eurozóny a obnoviť suverenitu krajín eurozóny voči výkyvom sentimentu finančných trhov.

Dokončenie článku vo štvrtok.


[1] Pokles trhovej ceny dlhopisu zvyšuje rozdiel medzi menovitou cenou dlhopisu a jeho trhovou cenou, a teda rastie výnos pre investorov.

[2] Aby pomer dlhu k HDP nerástol, musí platiť nasledujúci vzťah: S ≥ (r – g)*D, kde S je primárny rozpočtový prebytok, r nominálna úroková miera, g nominálny rast ekonomiky a D pomer dlhu k HDP.  Nedôvera trhov voči členom menovej únie zvyšuje nominálnu úrokovú mieru a znižuje nominálny rast ekonomiky. Prebytok primárneho rozpočtu potrebný na stabilizáciu pomeru dlhu k HDP sa teda zvyšuje.

[3] Ako som však argumentoval v predchádzajúcich príspevkoch (1,2,3),  v prípade väčšiny problémových krajín nemožno hovoriť o rozpočtovej nezodpovednosti vlád.

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