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Paradox dôveryhodnosti a spoločné eurobondy (2)

Dokončenie článku z utorka.

Jednou takouto inštitucionálnou reformou je práve Európsky fond finančnej stability, ktorý bol schválený v máji 2010 a ktorý sa má transformovať do stáleho Európskeho stabilizačného mechanizmu od roku 2013.  Kľúčová otázka ale je, do akej miery je takto pojatá reforma schopná riešiť načrtnutý problém.

„Euroval“ je často kritizovaný ako mechanizmus odmeňujúci nezodpovedné správanie vlád, ktoré roky žili nad svoje pomery. Euroval podľa tohto názoru vytvára morálny hazard a z dlhodobého hľadiska teda problém nerieši, ale práve naopak prehlbuje.

Podľa De Grauweho sú však tri dôvody, prečo je tento postoj problematický. Prvým dôvodom je, že okrem Grécka ťažko možno kritizovať nezodpovednú rozpočtovú politiku vlád. Druhým a vážnejším dôvodom je, že tento postoj ignoruje systémový problém krajín eurozóny, ktoré sa stali zraniteľné voči finančným trhom len vďaka tomu, že nekontrolujú menu v ktorej emitujú svoj dlh. A nemenej závažný dôvod je, že vysoká prepojenosť ekonomík eurozóny nedovoľuje izolovať problémy jednej krajiny a tieto problémy tak predstavujú riziko pre celú eurozónu.

De Grauwe však kritizuje súčasnú podobu eurovalu z hľadiska neschopnosti riešiť zraniteľnosť členských krajín voči finančným trhom. Niektoré pravidlá eurovalu dokonca problém prehlbujú.

Tým, že sa od krajín čerpajúcich pomoc požadujú vysoké úrokové miery, sa vysiela finančným trhom signál, že existuje vysoké riziko nesolventnosti. To trhy zneisťuje, a ďalej tak zvyšuje rizikovú prirážku na dlhopisoch zasiahnutých krajín. Vysoká úroková miera tak isto zhoršuje rozpočtovú situáciu týchto krajín a znižuje tak pravdepodobnosť úspešnej fiškálnej konsolidácie.

Podobne podmienenie pomoci programom tvrdých reštrikčných opatrení v oblasti verejných financií má za následok prehlbovanie recesie v zasiahnutých krajinách. Nepriaznivý ekonomický vývoj znižuje pravdepodobnosť úspešnej konsolidácie a môže naopak viesť k bankrotu týchto krajín. Požadované znižovanie deficitu verejných financií by malo byť rozložené na dostatočne dlhú dobu – tak, aby existoval priestor na obnovu ekonomického rastu.

Ďalším problémom sú úvahy o tom, aby v prípade budúcej pomoci boli súkromní investori pripravení na istú reštrukturalizáciu dlhu. Tento návrh sa zdá na prvý pohľad opodstatnený a správny, ale v praxi môže problémy krajín periférie prehĺbiť. Návrh totiž znamená prehĺbenie rizikovosti dlhopisov dotknutých štátov, čo bude mať za následok zvýšenie rizikovej prirážky a posunutie týchto štátov bližšie k nesolventnosti.

Aké opatrenia by mohli teda situáciu zasiahnutých krajín riešiť? Ako bolo naznačené na porovnaní situácie Španielska a Veľkej Británie, dôležitú úlohu zohráva fakt, že v prípade problémov britskej vlády finančné trhy môžu očakávať zásah Bank of England ako veriteľa poslednej inštancie.

ECB síce na začiatku dlhovej krízy síce takto postupovala, či už priamym nákupom dlhopisov alebo ich akceptáciou ako zábezpeky pri pomoci bankám problémových štátov. Pod vlnou kritiky, ktorá však ignorovala fundamentálny problém eurozóny, ECB tieto operácie obmedzila a snahy na riešenie dlhovej krízy sa sústredili na euroval.

Logickým riešením nesúladu medzi centralizovanou menovou politikou a decentralizovanými fiškálnymi politikami by bola užšia integrácia, ktorá by centralizovala aj fiškálne politiky. To by viedlo k systému transferov pre krajiny zasiahnuté negatívnymi šokmi a k situácii, kedy by spoločná fiškálna autorita mala väčší vplyv nad menou, v ktorej emituje dlh.

Keďže toto riešenie vyžaduje vysokú mieru politickej integrácie, a je teda v dohľadnej dobe nereálne, De Grauwe obhajuje malý krok týmto smerom. Tým by bola centralizácia vydávania eurodlhopisov, za ktoré by ručili všetky krajiny spoločne. To by jednak eliminovalo riziko týchto dlhopisov a tiež čiastočne riešilo situáciu, keď autorita emitujúca dlh nemá pod kontrolou menu, v ktorej je tento dlh denominovaný.

Spoločné eurobondy však prinášajú dva problémy. Na jednej strane vytvárajú morálny hazard, kde spoločné ručenie môže motivovať nezodpovedné správanie niektorých vlád. Druhý problém je, že náklady spoločných dlhopisov môžu prevyšovať náklady, ktorým čelia najsolventnejšie krajiny eurozóny. Tieto krajiny tak nemajú motiváciu zapojiť sa do mechanizmu. De Grauwe navrhuje riešenie na oba problémy.

Morálny hazard by sa podarí odstrániť, ak sa obmedzí množstvo spoločných dlhopisov, ktoré každá krajina môže vydať, napríklad na 60 % HDP danej krajiny. Po prekročení tejto hranice by musela krajina vydávať dlhopisy čisto cez národný trh. To by malo za následok, že vysoko zadlžené krajiny by podobne ako dnes čelili vysokým úrokom na nových dlhopisoch a to by ich motivovalo znižovať zadlžovanie.

Na druhej strane, keďže značná časť dlhu by predstavovala nízke náklady, priemerné náklady na dlh by sa pre tieto krajiny znížili, čo by zvýšilo ich solventnosť. Každopádne zavedenie tohto mechanizmu by eurozóne prinieslo značné množstvo likvidity na preklenutie krízy.

Druhý spomínaný problém by sa dal riešiť zavedením poplatkov za účasť v mechanizme, čím by sa docielila istá diferenciácia skutočných úrokových nákladov pre rôzne krajiny podľa ich dlhovej situácie – tak, aby mechanizmus bol výhodný aj pre najsolventnejšie krajiny.

Ďalším argumentom v tomto smere je možnosť, že vytvorenie veľkého trhu spoločných európskych dlhopisov s nízkym rizikom by posilnilo euro ako rezervnú menu pre zvyšok sveta, vďaka čomu by eurozóna mohla profitovať z nižších úrokových nákladov podobne ako je to v prípade Spojených štátov.

Na záver je vhodné skonštatovať, že uvedené príklady dokazujú, že opatrenia na riešenie dlhovej krízy v eurozóne existujú. Otázne však je, či si európske politické špičky uvedomujú systémový charakter problému a či dokážu prekonať ekonomický nacionalizmus v záujme záchrany eura. Len tak možno odstrániť zraniteľnosť eurozóny voči sebanaplňujúcim očakávaniam finančných trhov, ktoré posúvajú časť eurozóny do nesolventnosti a potenciálne ohrozujú bankové systémy celej eurozóny.

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    bla..blaa..bla..
    kazdy spekuluje ako proverbialny zlatnicky ucen, pritom realita je velmi jednoducha, padne jedna banka, banka v Grecku, padnu banky v inych krajinach ktore su kreditorom dotycnych bank v Grecku, ktore dalej strhnu so sebou banky ktorym dlhuju dotycne banky.. vyberie sa jedna karta a cely domcek z karat sa polozi.. proces je uz rozbehnuty a vsetke spekulacie a eurovaly spadaju pod kategoriu ludoveho -’kicking the can down the road..’ zatial este nie je dosiahnuty ten kriticky bod ale daleko od neho uz nie sme.
    Tak nejak sa to odohralo v roku 1931 s bankou Credit Anstalt a tak nejak sa to odohra znova, ako prislovie hovori; historia sa neopakuje ale rymuje,

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    (blog je rok stary ale stalestale platny v ohodnoteni slamastiky v ktorej sa globalne nachadzame)

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