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Pán Sulík, povinné čítanie

Včera sme si so záujmom pozreli „duel“ Mikloša so Sulíkom v TA3. Zaznelo:

R. Sulík:

[...] My vravíme, treba spraviť čistý rez, úprimný, nie tu stále získavať čas a oddiaľovať, treba si uvedomiť, že dnes by stačil 50‑percentný haircut, to znamená zníženie istiny na to, aby sa Grécko dostalo pod sto percent dlhu, sto percent HDP dlhu pod, o tri roky to už bude 70 percent. Skrátka čím ďalej to budeme naťahovať ako žuvačku, no tak o drahšie celé riešenie bude, o to viac ohrozíme celé euro a znehodnotíme úspory napríklad aj slovenského obyvateľstva.

Takže, pán Sulík, dnes stačí 50-percentný zostrih? Chceli by sme Vás poprosiť o chvíľu Vášho drahocenného štátno-úradníckeho času – prečítajte si, prosím, článok pôvodom gréckeho (tfuj!) ekonóma Yanisa Varoufakisa: Saviour of Last Resort: The Modest Proposal as the Eurozone’s last line of defence. Aspoň tretí paragraf.

V stručnosti: Vaša predstava, že dnes stačí odpísať polovicu istiny z gréckeho dlhu na to, aby sa v priebehu troch rokov ako zázrakom scvrkol na 70% HDP, je na smiech. Bez ohľadu na odvodené efekty na celkovú hospodársku situáciu v krajine ako aj na globálne trhy je už dnes každému (okrem Vás) jasné, že akýkoľvek haircut by bezprostredne poslal do kolien v prvom rade grécky bankový sektor. A kto a koľko si bude musieť požičať na jeho rekapitalizáciu? Opýtajte sa Ivana Mikloša, má s tým bohaté osobné skúsenosti.

Ďalej do pozornosti dávame príspevok rovnakého autora. Jasne rozoberá realistické alternatívy ring fencingu gréckych bánk a kľúčovú úlohu, ktorú v každom prípade bude hrať EFSF resp. ESM, ktorých existenciu Vaša strana ohrozuje.

PS: Redakcia Kriteka by chcela zároveň upozorniť na článok Ivana Lesaya Grécko: (Re)kapitulácia, ktorý v sobotu vyjde na blogu a v skrátenej podobe v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (48)

  • rado 30.06.2011 6:33

    myslim, ze ide o nedorozumenie: teraz je postacujuci 50 % haircut a o tri roky to uz bude musiet byt 70 % haircut.
    takze vo Vasom pripade plati: co sa babe chcelo, to sa babe snilo.
    Vysledkom je, ze nie je poriadna diskusia, kde jeden akter chape co hovori druhy a naopak – ale zmatok, z ktoreho sa nedozvieme nic.

  • Tiburon 30.06.2011 7:07

    Mily rado, chapeme to spravne? Chcete nam povedat, ze pan Sulik chcel povedat, ze ak teraz nebude odpustka 50%, tak o tri roky bude potrebne odpustit az 70% na to, aby sa grecky dlh dostal pod 100% HDP?
    Ak to myslite vazne, prosime si ozrejmit, ako take nieco moze dnes ktokolvek nasimulovat. Nostradamus by bol v pripade, ze by take nieco bolo mozne, uplny amater.
    Tak ci onak, pointa tohto blogu ostava: haircut nemoze byt bez toho, aby boli grecke banky vybrate z europskeho bankoveho systemu. A na to je potrebny Euroval.

  • martin 30.06.2011 9:49

    tiburon, ja som to tiez pochopil tak ako rado (priamo na ta3). a chvilu som sa v tom vasom texte aj bezmocne topil, kym som si este zo dva razy neprecital, co to suldo vlastne povedal (btw, neviem preco by mal v danej suvislosti hovorit to, co naznacujete vy. taka argumentacia nedava zmysel a radovo “co sa babe… ” presne sedi).

    kazdopadne, neviem, preco by mal rado (a podla tejto logiky aj ja) nieco ozrejmovat. skor by som vam odporucil aby ste v tom svojom bozom boji nemali tak krvou podliate oci a kazde vyjadrenie triezvo posudzovali skor ako nieco vyplujete. ak mame totiz s radom pravdu, tak vasa pointa nie ze nezostava ale vas vykrik je dokonca smiesny. (pretoze o takom sa sulik s miklosom nebavili, ich nazory na to nezazneli. je dost mozne ze by s vami suhlasili obaja .-)

  • Tiburon 30.06.2011 9:57

    Mily martin, ak Sulik nepovedal co povedal a suhlasi s tym, co je napisane, tak je to v pohode – SaS schvali navysenie eurovalu 1 a pristupenie SR k eurovalu 2.

  • Ivan Lesay 30.06.2011 10:11

    mozno by sa p. sulik mal presnejsie vyjadrovat. ja som to tiez pochopil tak, ze chce haircutom do troch rokov znizit podiel greckeho dlhu na hdp.
    ale nech to myslel, ako to myslel, posolstvo tohto blogu vratane prilozenych linkov je, ze „akýkoľvek haircut by bezprostredne poslal do kolien v prvom rade grécky bankový sektor“, co by spustilo lavinu katastrofickych nasledkov. a ze euroval tomu ma bezprostredne zabranit.
    toto je to, co miklos uz chape a sulik furt nie a nie…

  • martin 30.06.2011 10:19

    mily tiburon, vykecat sa da zo vsetkeho. ako ale pise rado vyssie, citatelovi zostava len zmatok, z ktoreho sa nedozvie nic. spam.

  • Tiburon 30.06.2011 12:51

    mily martin, nas zaujima iba jedno: Ako sa dokazu Sulik a spol vykecat zo vsetkych tych hluposti co uz tak kategoricky kade tade natarali, ked budu musiet konat zodpovedne. Ze v tom ich sympatizanti maju zmatok nikoho neprekvapuje.

  • martin 30.06.2011 13:19

    mily tiburon. ked clovek (pravdepodobne) streli capa mal by si to vediet aspon priznat. odbiehanie od podstaty a vyvrsovanie sa na tych, ktori na to upozornia a ich prechytracovanie mne pripada pomerne hlupe. ked nic, mlcat zlato.

  • Tiburon 30.06.2011 14:55

    mily martin, sice netusime, o com tocite, ale urcite mate (pravdepodobne) pravdu. Vsetko dobre.

  • Momo 30.06.2011 16:57

    Ale prdlajs. Sulik si precital, ze manici z americkej banky Citigroup vypocitali, ze bankrotovat treba teraz, rychlo, a nie neskor, lebo ak Grecko zbankrotuje teraz, (americki) investori dostanu spat 50%, ak o 2-3 roky, tak 30%.
    No a tunajsie osadenstvo hovori, ze bankrotovat rychlo – teraz sa Grecku nedovoli, lebo eurozona by bola v tom pripade v pici, najprv treba zaistit, aby v pripade greckeho bankrotu nepresla nakaza z greckych bank (ktore su na tom najhorsie) na ostatok systemu. A preto je euroval klucovy.
    Akoze Sulik je vemeno, ktore sa nevie jasne vyjadrovat a stale muti vodu. Treba mu nabuduce prilezitostne chrstnut do ksichtu, ze ako moze verit manikom zo Citigroup. Za koho kope? Americke banky maju desiatky miliard USD stavenych na krach Grecka (CDS). To je konflikt zaujmov jak vysity.

  • Tiburon 01.07.2011 8:11

    Vdaka Momo. Kto dnes berie vazne vyrok, ze o tri roky bude treba z istiny greckeho dlhu odpisat 70% na to, aby sa pomer dlhu k HDP dostal pod 100%, musi verit aj Nostradamusovi. Pripomenutie, ze tieto cisla pustili do obehu americke banky, ktore maju eminentny zaujem na tom, aby grecko krachlo teraz, je velmi uzitocne. Ak Sulik pri jeho vyhlaseni v TA3 vychadzal prave z tohto, tak je to este horsie, ako nasa interpretacia. Aj preto je tu asi relativne “ticho po pesine”. Vsetko dobre.

  • mp 02.07.2011 12:39

    pan “Tiburon”, v predošlom svojom článku, ale na podobnu temu, pišete :
    ” Ak totiž pošleme Grécko do bankrotu ……. Padne Írsko, padne Portugalsko, padne nielen eurozóna, ale aj celý finančný systém. Medzibankový trh zamrzne tak, že Lehman Brothers bude oproti tomu teplý letný vánok”
    – Mám dôvod vam veriť. Mam odborne vedomosti , čo tomuto nasvedčuju.
    Lenže :
    Ak je situacia naozaj taká hrozná, tak by to politici mali jasne povedať. Zatial politici naznačuju možné problemy, ale iba velmi nejasne. Na obhajobu tých stámiliard eur by mali povedať jasnejšie argumenty.
    Mam veriť politikom , ktorí vlastne nič nepovedali, alebo vám, anonymnému blogerovi ????
    A ešte :
    Vy sice kritizujete Sulika, ale bez jedineho jasneho, čislami podopreteho argumentu. Pytam sa,
    - zachrani 100 mld pôžička Grecko ?
    - bude potrebna dalšia pôžička, kedy, kolko ???
    - o kolko prídeme, ked nepožičiame ??
    - vratia nám Greci pôžičku, kedy ???

  • mp 02.07.2011 12:48

    K predošlemu prispevku – asi som nespravne pochopil. Autorom nie je Tiburon, ale iný anonym.

  • houllebeque 22.10.2011 15:38

    tak to je riadny blivajz toto – ved pred par dnami ten 50% alebo 60% (uz neviem presne) schauble pripustil ako nevyhnutny!!!!!

  • rado 28.10.2011 17:37

    po 4 mesiacoch je 50 % haircut schvaleny a ziadna pohroma nenastala. :)
    vivat sulik, predpovedal to uz davno a vsetci tito “nostradamovia” apokalypsy na cele s tiburonom si cvrkli …

  • Tiburon 29.10.2011 17:52

    Mily Rado, netusim, co sa Vam nepaci, ale viem toto: 50% odpis z tej casti istiny dlhu, ktora je vo vlastnictve sukromnych bank (o ktorom sa hovorilo na sumite, a o ktotom zatial nikto nevie, ako by mal konkretne prebiehat), za predpokladu, ze bude naozaj v tejto miere realizovany, by mal v najlepsom pripade (utopia) umoznit Grecku v roku 2020 mat statny dlh na urovni 120% hdp, teda zhruba na tej urovni, ako ked pred nedavnom zacalo padat do priepasti… Mne sa skor zda, ze nepozorne citate, nemate dostatok informacii, a robite predcasne zavery.
    Pozdravujem pana Sulika. Pekny vecer.

  • maminax 09.11.2011 21:07

    Pan Sulik,nie Grecko,ale Vy s Vasou politikou svojich volicou hadzete uplne na same dno,aby padali do kolien..aku vobec mate predstavu co sa deje s obycajnym vyrobnym pracovnikom?Chces vyssi plat?Chod prec,mame dalsich/aj ked su to nie odbornici/,vzdy sa najde blb,ktory bude pracovat za min.plat,len aby mal pracu..Akym pravom si zvysujete platy,nehanbite sa ani troska???Osobne si myslim,ze toto uz dalej Slovensky narod nebude trpiet,toto uz nebude nezna,ale krvava revolucia ak sa ludia spametaju..vobec Vas to netrapi???

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