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Grécko: (Re)kapitulácia

Pôžičky Grécku majú v posledných dňoch vyárendované miesto na titulných stranách európskych médií. K téme sa vyjadruje kadekto a každý zo svojho uhla pohľadu. V diskusii sa ľahko možno stratiť, preto snáď nezaškodí krátka rekapitulácia.

Platobná neschopnosť

Základný fakt, okolo ktorého sa všetko točí, je hrozba gréckej nesolventnosti. To znamená, že vláda krajiny stráca schopnosť kryť svoje finančné záväzky. Na ich krytie si už dokonca nie je schopná ani požičať na finančných trhoch za normálny splatiteľný úrok. A tak jej hrozí, ľudovo povedané, bankrot.

Prečo je Grécko v takom zlom stave? Odpoveď pozná už každý priemerný Slovák nafutrovaný médiami a politikmi: Nezodpovednosť, lesť, lenivosť, život nad pomery. Nech si každý poctivý slovenský komentátor kopne.

Ale tak, ako každý slovenský komentátor, dovolím si aj ja zdôrazniť faktory dôležité podľa mňa (a neskromne si myslím, že aj objektívne dôležitejšie): Dlhodobá a štrukturálna neschopnosť ekonomiky konkurovať (mzdy v nej hrajú minimálnu úlohu, pozri tu a tu), vyhýbanie sa plateniu daní bohatými Grékmi, korupcia, zlé politické priority (obrana). A klinec do rakvy – celosvetová hospodárska kríza.

Pomoc zvonka

Krajine na pokraji krachu ostáva jediné – pomoc medzinárodných verejných veriteľov. Keď sa už pred rokom nedalo normálne požičať na finančných trhoch, prišiel na pomoc Medzinárodný menový fond a krajiny eurozóny (okrem principiálneho Slovenska). Ako sa však ukazuje, 110 miliárd eur nestačí.

Aktuálne sa teda rokuje „o ďalšej pomoci Grécku“. Voči pomoci sa ale valia vlny kritiky. Na prvej surfujú napr. superstars stredoeurópskej ekonómie SulíkKlausom a poučujú svet: Ale veď Grécko je už de facto v bankrote, svoje aktuálne podlžnosti nijako nebude vedieť splatiť. Títo rebeli bez príčiny ale, žiaľ, majú pravdu.

Druhá vlna vyplavuje hlásateľov ekonómie podnikateľského asketizmu a katarzie (napr. poslanec Kollár z SaS). Gréci si za to vraj môžu sami, tak nech si utiahnu opasky a trebárs aj rozpredajú ostrovy, whatta fuck? Ich krajina si žila roky nad pomery (jednoducho milujem túto personifikovanú moralizátorskú tautológiu – 1. tak krásne a nekomplikovane ukazuje prstom na vinníka; 2. ak štátu hrozí bankrot, tak je pomerne jasné, že príčinou sú príjmy neschopné pokryť výdavky).

No ešteže tá Európa má k dispozícii takéto brilantné a úprimné stredoeurópske mozgy, ináč neviem, čo by si počala. Ale vážne. V EÚ nie sú takí hlúpi, aby nevedeli, čo vedia resp. si myslia česká hlava štátu a slovenskí euroskeptici resp. euroignoranti.

Otázkou samozrejme je, prečo sa celý ten humbug napriek tomu robí. Ak vychádzame z neodvratnosti gréckeho bankrotu, tak úverovaním možno len získať čas. Získať čas na čo?

Pomoc alebo rabovačka?

Napríklad na to, vyžmýkať z Grécka ešte pred bankrotom, čo sa dá. Všetky úsporné a reštriktívne opatrenia, ktorými EÚ a MMF podmieňovali a podmieňujú pôžičky Grécku, z dlhodobého ekonomického hľadiska celkom jednoznačne vedú nie k zlepšeniu, ale k zhoršeniu výkonu gréckej ekonomiky. Teda aj k zníženiu schopnosti splácať dlhy. A zníženie jednotkových nákladov práce, teda miezd, nijako nevyrieši problém nízkej konkurencieschopnosti gréckeho hospodárstva.

Ak je v hre MMF, jedným si môžeme byť istí. Že napriek svojmu oficiálnemu poslaniu požičať štátu neschopnému požičať si inde, bude prioritne presadzovať záujem veriteľov – splatenie čo najväčšej časti existujúceho dlhu za každú cenu. V tomto je na MMF skutočne spoľah.

Konšpiračno-pragmatické vysvetlenie teda znie: Grécko dostane úver, oddiali sa bankrot, splatí sa čo najviac úverov bankám a iným finančným inštitúciám z kľúčových štátov EÚ (Nemecko, Francúzsko, Veľká Británia), potešia sa aj investori, ktorí v privatizácii lacno nakúpia grécke štátne podniky, potom môže Grécko „padnúť“. Toto vysvetlenie prezentoval dokonca aj slovenský minister financií (asi aby sa mu ľahšie ospravedlnila provinčná lakomosť našej vlády[1]).

Záchrana európskeho projektu

Je však aj iné vysvetlenie – záchrana eura, eurozóny, a v konečnom dôsledku EÚ ako takej. Okamžitý a neriadený bankrot Grécka by mohol viesť k ďalšej vlne finančnej krízy a vo výsledku ku koncu eurozóny v jej súčasnej podobe, s tvrdými dopadmi pre Slovensko.

Z krátkodobého hľadiska je tak nutné odvrátiť bezprostrednú hrozbu krachu. A čas, ktorý sa získa, venovať inštitucionálnym reformám – tie by mali v strednodobom výhľade zmierniť dopady prípadného krachu a v dlhodobom horizonte zabrániť vzniku podobných situácií.

Aktuálne sa už rokuje o konkrétnych opatreniach reformy hospodárskeho riadenia v EÚ. Európska komisia predstavila balíček šiestich dokumentov v tejto oblasti a minulý týždeň o nich rokoval Európsky parlament. Žiaľ, opatrenia neadresujú podstatu nerovnováh, ktoré viedli k súčasným problémom. Iba pritvrdzujú požiadavky rozpočtovej disciplíny.

Balíček hospodárskeho riadenia je však iba prvou a chvalabohu nie rozhodujúcou etapou. Ak balíček prejde, hroziaca Kríza verzia 2.0 príde ešte skôr a bude hlbšia. Snáď ale neprejde.

Podstatnejšie návrhy prídu čoskoro, hneď po tom, čo Európska komisia navrhne rozpočtový rámec na obdobie po roku 2013. Toto sú kľúčové otázky – aký bude mať EÚ rozpočet, zavedú sa európske dane, bude EÚ schopná vydávať dlhopisy a ručiť za ne a pod.

Politický boj

Odpovede na tieto otázky nie sú vopred dané. Práve naopak, sú predmetom ostrého politického boja. Boja, do ktorého sa dá zapojiť, a v ktorom je o čo bojovať. Návrhov, ako zachovať eurozónu a predísť aktuálnym problémom, nie je málo – arbitráž, fiškálna únia, spoločné eurodlhopisy, masívne investície do európskeho programu obnovy, expanzívna politika v centre a cielená politika rozvoja v periférii a pod. (súvisiace články na blogu tu, tu a tu).

O tom, ako by sa kríza v ideálnom prípade mohla zmeniť na príležitosť pre hlbšiu integráciu v Európe, dobre napísal Rado Geist. Obsiahly zoznam protikrízových odporúčaní na budúci týždeň v Európskom parlamente predstaví francúzska socialistka Pervenche Berès.

Na Slovensku treba byť ale asi – aspoň pre začiatok – skromní. Snáď by stačilo, keby sa ľudia v politike a médiách oboznámili aspoň so základmi problematiky a s obsahom konkrétnych návrhov, ktoré ležia na stole. Aby pripustili komplexnosť problému. A aby v súvislosti s Gréckom prestali uvažovať simplisticky, v biblických kategóriách hriechu, viny, trestu a očistca.

Článok vychádza v skrátenej podobe ako komentár v denníku Pravda.


[1] Aj keď Miklošovi a jeho tímu treba uznať – na rozdiel od mimóznych Sulíkovcov – že si zachovali aspoň štipku realizmu. A že, hoci neradi, si začínajú uvedomovať, že Grécko ďalšiu pôžičku dostane –  že je to ešte stále lepšie riešenie ako alternatíva. Viac v poslednom príspevku Tiburona na Kriteku.

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Komentáre (216)

  • mp 02.07.2011 14:29

    ” tak úverovaním možno len získať čas. ”
    - ČAS na ČO ?!?! Na zachranu francuzskych bánk ??? A prečo maju ich banky zachraňovať občania slovenska ?!?!
    ———————————————-
    “príležitosť pre hlbšiu integráciu v Európe”
    - tiež trápny žvást. V europe už máme “zintegrované” CENY. PLATY, samozrejme, nik integrovať nebude. Zo štvrtinových platov platíme ceny ako v Nemecku.

    “Krajine na pokraji krachu ostáva jediné – pomoc medzinárodných verejných veriteľov.”
    - jeden žvást za druhým ! Žiadni medzinárodní “veritelia ” !!! Zaplatia to proti svojej vôli občania . Nik sa ma nepýtal, či suhlasím. A nik neverí, že Greci splatia aspon polovicu !!!

    Trapny komentár, žiadne ekonomické argumenty, iba kopanie do iných.
    Pan “ekonom” : čo KONKRETNE sa stane, ak Grecko skrachuje ??? KONKRETNE, tie všeobecné žvasty !

    “PôŽIČKU” grekom nakoniec zaplatia občania slovenska v tom pomere, v akom dnes platia dane.
    A grecko krachne aj tak, len o dva roky neskôr. Hned po tom, ako sa dlhy v bankách presunú na občanov.

  • Braňo 02.07.2011 15:56

    Ahoj Ivan,
    Grecko nema problem s konkurencieschopnostou: Mzdy sice rychlo rastli, ale rastla aj produktivita, takze v konecnom dosledku labor cost per output medzi 2000 a 2009 poklesli.
    http://www.eurointelligence.com/article/article/greek-competitiveness-is-not-the-issue-fiscal-discipline-is.html

  • Avatar 02.07.2011 19:10

    Tak toto je akože článok od kritického ekonóma?
    Ako mp hovorí – samé žvásty. Žiadne hľadanie príčiny a cieľov tých, čo spôsobili zadĺženie Grécka.
    Mimochodom, tak ako Gréco je viac zadĺžených štátov. Prečo si úžernícka internacionála vybrala najpr Grécko? Lebo je to kolíska demokracie a myslia si, že ak zlomia Grécko, ostatné štáty rozkradnú rad za radom bez problémov. Ale Gréci sa nedajú, vedia, o čo ide.

  • rado 02.07.2011 21:06

    pravdepodobne nebude mozne posielat peniaze cez Grecko spat Nemecku a Francuzku a ostatnym krajinam kvoli velkej a pochopitelnej nevoli greckych obcanov, ktori citia, ze refinancovane nie je Grecko.
    ako sam pisete, viedlo by to k totalnemu ozobraceniu Grecka a to obcania nedovolia – a tak je to spravne.

  • Ivan Lesay 04.07.2011 14:49

    brano, vdaka. ten clanok som uz predtym videl. fajn, ved aj ja som vo svojom prispevku poznamenal, ze mzdy sa ukazali byt v studiach, na ktore referujem, pre konkurencieschopnost nie az tak podstatne. ja som skor narazal na exportnu vykonnost a konkrencieschopnost ekonomiky. nieco k tomu som nasiel tu:
    http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2010114.pdf
    Although the pattern of comparative advantages and the technological intensity of Greek exports have improved, exports remain concentrated in low- and medium-technology sectors, while product variety and quality have declined.
    ale nech by som sa aj v tomto svojom bode mylil, tak by to len potvrdilo, ze tie legendy o grecku, ktorym sa u nas tak dari, stoja na vode. nie?

  • Prof. Hubert. J, Farnsworth 05.07.2011 19:56

    “Aby pripustili komplexnosť problému..”
    Nepripustam!! Preco by som mal pripustit, vec je uplne jednoducha, politicky ‘power grab’ zo strany EU ktora bola odsudena k zaniku este pred vznikom a zavedenim spolocnej meny, oddialovanie nevyhnutneho krachu..
    Simple as that and you can call my view simplistic whatever you want.. it really is that simple..!!

  • Braňo 07.07.2011 9:11

    @ Ivan,
    ano, aj podla mna je vacsina komentarov o konkurencieschopnosti Grecka skor legendou.

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