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Ako zastaviť sebanaplňujúce očakávania?

Svet sa čoraz viac obáva rastúceho zadlženia mnohých krajín. V tejto súvislosti a pri hľadaní riešenia tohto problému je však potrebné si uvedomiť dôležité rozdiely medzi jednotlivými zasiahnutými krajinami. Treba tiež porozumieť úlohe trhového sentimentu.

Na jednej strane je Grécko. V jeho prípade je otázne, či by krajina aj pri nízkych úrokových mierach dokázala plniť svoje záväzky a z dlhodobého hľadiska zvrátila nárast dlhu. Naopak, v prípade Španielska a Talianska možno argumentovať, že pokiaľ si tieto krajiny zachovajú prístup k finančným trhom pri prijateľných úrokových mierach, po istých fiškálnych úpravách by mali byť schopné z dlhodobého hľadiska vyrovnať rozpočet a znižovať svoj dlh.

V prvom prípade tak možno hovoriť o nesolventnosti a pri druhom o problémoch získať likviditu pri prijateľných úrokových mierach. Portugalsko a Írsko sa pravdepodobne nachádzajú niekde medzi týmito dvoma pólmi.

Každopádne, aj v prípade fundamentálne solventných krajín môže nastať situácia, keď neistota na trhoch môže viesť k nárastu úrokových mier, pri ktorých si daná krajina požičiava. Vyššie úrokové miery zvyšujú náklady financovania dlhu, a teda ďalej zhoršujú fiškálnu situáciu krajiny, čo vedie len k väčšej neistote trhov a ešte vyšším úrokovým mieram. Jedná sa tak o začarovaný kruh sebanaplňujúcich očakávaní, ktorý môže viesť k potrebe požiadať o pomoc iné krajiny a medzinárodné inštitúcie, alebo dokonca vyhlásiť bankrot.

Ako upozorňuje belgický ekonóm Paul De Grauwe, sú to práve krajiny eurozóny, ktoré sú náchylné na výkyvy trhového sentimentu. Príčinou je fakt, že krajiny eurozóny nekontrolujú menu, v ktorej si požičiavajú. V prípade vyspelých krajín ako USA, Veľká Británia či Japonsko, ktoré si požičiavajú v mene, ktorú sami emitujú, existuje totiž istý vyrovnávajúci mechanizmus, ktorý zabraňuje vzniku sebanaplňujúcich očakávaní.

Pokiaľ by investori začali predávať napríklad britské dlhopisy, je pravdepodobné, že by sa snažili predať aj britské libry. Kurz libry by oslaboval až dovtedy, kým by sa našli investori ochotní dané libry nakúpiť. Každopádne spomínané libry ostávajú súčasťou domácej peňažnej zásoby a investujú sa do domácich aktív a pravdepodobne časť spätne do vládneho dlhu. Slabšia libra by navyše podporila reálnu ekonomiku a to by zlepšilo fiškálnu situáciu vlády.

Nemenej dôležitý je fakt, že keby sa aj britská vláda dostala do situácie, kde by mala  problém predať dostatok dlhopisov pri prijateľnej úrokovej miere, s veľkou pravdepodobnosťou by potrebnú likviditu dodala Bank of England, ktorá ma monopol na tlačenie peňazí. Finančné trhy si túto situáciu samozrejme uvedomujú a preto neexistuje priestor pre vznik sebanaplňujúcich očakávaní.

V prípade krajín eurozóny je situácia odlišná. Európska centrálna banka patrí medzi najnezávislejšie centrálne banky na svete a vzhľadom na prísny mandát sledujúci výlučne cenovú stabilitu nie je ochotná priamo úverovať vlády eurozóny. Podobne v prípade krajín eurozóny neexistuje žiadny mechanizmus, ktorý by zabezpečoval zachovanie domácej peňažnej zásoby a stimuloval domácu ekonomiku cez oslabovanie meny. Naopak, pokles ceny vládnych dlhopisov spravidla vážne ohrozuje (nielen) domáci bankový sektor a vynútené úspory vládneho sektora môžu oslabiť reálnu ekonomiku, čo paradoxne môže viesť k zhoršeniu fiškálnej situácie vlády.

Nie je preto vôbec prekvapujúce, že Veľká Británia si požičiava za značne lepších podmienok ako Španielsko, napriek tomu, že podiel verejného dlhu na HDP ako aj vývoj tohto ukazovateľa je priaznivejší v prípade Španielska. Ďalším príkladom je Japonsko, ktorého 10-ročné dlhopisy dosahujú len jednopercentný výnos a to bez ohľadu na stratu najvyššieho ratingu agentúry S&P spred desiatich rokov a bez ohľadu na verejný dlh, ktorý sa vyšplhal na závratných 225 % HDP. Napokon ani výnosy dlhopisov americkej vlády nereagovali na nedávne zníženie ratingu spomínanou agentúrou a pokračovali v dlhodobejšom poklese.

Ako teda môžu krajiny eurozóny riešiť svoju zraniteľnosť voči výkyvom sentimentu na finančných trhoch? Vzhľadom na politickú nereálnosť úzkej fiškálnej integrácie a malú pravdepodobnosť zmeny postoja ECB voči úverovaniu vlád, čoraz častejšie sa spomína vydávanie spoločných dlhopisov, za ktoré by krajiny eurozóny ručili spoločne.

Aby sa predišlo problému morálneho hazardu, množstvo dlhopisov, ktoré jednotlivé krajiny môžu vydať,  by bolo obmedzené ako percento HDP danej krajiny. Za účasť v programe by sa platil istý poplatok, ktorý by závisel od fiškálnej zodpovednosti krajiny, čím by sa zabezpečila dostatočná atraktivita programu pre fiškálne zodpovedné krajiny.

Spoločné európske dlhopisy majú potenciál znížiť úrokové náklady a zabezpečiť likviditu a čas na fiškálnu konsolidáciu pre inak solventné krajiny. Tieto dlhopisy by navyše mohli poskytnúť alternatívu voči americkým vládnym dlhopisom, čo by prinieslo euru výhody svetovej rezervnej meny.

Táto úvaha naznačuje, že súčasné dlhové problémy krajín eurozóny nie sú vôbec nevyhnutné.  Tieto krajiny sa totiž dobrovoľne vzdali kontroly nad svojou menou, čo dalo finančným trhom silu priviesť inak solventné krajiny do situácie, keď nie sú schopné financovať svoj dlh. Spoločné európske dlhopisy môžu byť spôsob, ako túto zraniteľnosť riešiť.

Upravená verzia článku vyšla ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (297)

  • skeptik 13.08.2011 8:36

    To je otrasne akym pofidernym zargonom tito makroekonomovia zamoruju a znecistuju (umyselne zahmlievaju?) myslienkovy proces.

    “V prípade vyspelých krajín ako USA, Veľká Británia či Japonsko, ktoré si požičiavajú v mene, ktorú sami emitujú, existuje totiž istý vyrovnávajúci mechanizmus, ktorý zabraňuje vzniku sebanaplňujúcich očakávaní.”

    Takto eufemicky nazvat obycajne nehorazne legalizovane falsovanie meny a okradanie obcanov je naozaj umenie.
    Centralne riadena EU je najskor zlomyselny vtip. Normalni obcania pre svoju prosperitu v ramci EU potrebuju akurat slobodu pohybu osob, tovaru a kapitalu. Kto potrebuje tu armadu parazitujucich aparatcikov? Kto potrebuje spolocne europske dlhopisy? Akurat zase len paraziti. Staty sa nemaju co zadlzovat. A tie ktore sa zadlzia nech sa z toho vysekaju same alebo nech zbankrotuju. To ze nemozu falsovat vlastnu menu je iba pozitivum.

  • mary poppins 18.08.2011 18:55

    jasne ako facka, nemusim byt ani makroekonomom,
    staci mi Economy 101 na lokalnej community college, skor ci neskor bude nasledovat naraz do steny, staci sa pozriet do dnesnych hlavnych ekonomickych dennikov a kazdemu je jasne, ze ten naraz do steny sa prave deje..
    Have a nice day sudruh makroekonom!

  • mary poppins 18.08.2011 19:05

    ‘sebanaplnajuce ocakavania..?? I assume is slovak version of ‘self-fulfilling prophecy,’
    ..fucking pathetic, if you ask me..just saying..

  • Milan Vaňko 18.08.2011 23:03

    mary poppins:

    Len niekolko veci:

    1. Arogantny ton reakcie ste si mohli odpustit a radsej konkretne reagovat na prispevok. Taka diskusia by mala potom zmysel.

    2. V anglictine sa pouziva aj vyraz “self-fulfilling expectations”, staci pouzit google, ktory by Vas mal naviest k prislusnym ekonomickym clankom.

    3. Neberiem Vam pravo na odlisny nazor, ale aj ten sa da vyjadrit v ramci slusnej diskusie bez nalepkovania. Neviem, odkial ste prisli na to, ze som sudruh, ale podla stylu Vasej reakcie by som povedal, ze k nim asi mate blizsie.

    Zelam pekny vecer.

  • mary poppins 19.08.2011 4:34

    na fucking drivel na urovni slohovej prace ziaka zakladnej skoly sa inak ani reagovat neda..
    strc si svoje ‘diplomy’ tam kam patria >> tam kde slnko nesvieti..na pretlacenie hlupych rieseni ‘osvietenych hlav’ tymu ‘Mer-Kozy’ tie tvoje sracky su nepresvedcive..FAIL, FAIL, FAIL..

    dlhy sa nevyriesia nakopenim dalsich dlhov, mozes sa to snazit zaobalit do akeho len chces pozlatka, hovno nevylestis..

  • ja 19.08.2011 21:32

    S autorom clanku nesuhlasim.
    Grecko nikdy nesplati svoje dlhy, dokonca ziaden stat na svete nikdy nesplati svoje dlhy. Vsetci dlznici na svete nikdy nesplatia svoje dlhy.
    Nie je to ani teoreticky mozne, lebo neexistuje tolko penazi aby sa tieto dlhy a uroky splatili.
    Ziadnemu dlznikovi nepomoze dalsia pozicka, ta len zhorsi jeho situaciu.

    Treba si uvedomit, ze cielom bank je mat co najvacsi objem uverov, lebo tym vacsie su uroky = zisk banky.

    Ako jedine nekatastroficke vychodisko zo sucasneho kolabujuceho financneho systemu vidim:
    - Zrusit dlhy vsetkych statov. Pre postihnute banky to bude akurat znamenat znizenie cisla v kolonke pohladavky a teda znizenie zisku.
    - Staty budu davat peniaze do obehu priamo prostrednictvom statnych vydajov, bez toho aby sa tym (tak ako je tomu teraz) niekomu zadlzovali a museli mu platit uroky.

  • Centrálna úloha Európskej centrálnej banky | Blog JeToTak.sk 02.11.2011 1:43

    [...] Podčiarknuté a sčítané, ak má eurzóna dožiť rána, musia predstavitelia a predstaviteľky EÚ vytasiť vlajku ECB. Žiadna iná inštitúcia (napr. EFSF) totiž nedokáže eliminovať tlaky finančných trhov, ktoré z rozdielu medzi nelikvidnými a nesolventnými krajinami eurozóny robia iba rétorické cvičeni…. [...]

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