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V spolupráci s občianskym združením A.K.O. a serverom JeToTak-LMD vydáva Kriteko diskusný zošit Pomer závislosti v kontexte demografických zmien. Mimoriadny význam pracovného trhu na príklade Slovenska. Autorom je Erik Türk. K publikácii napísal Ivan Lesay predslov, ktorý teraz v upravenej podobe uverejňujeme. Samozrejme vrelo odporúčame prečítať si celú publikáciu.

V rokoch 2003 a 2004 sa na Slovensku zásadným spôsobom zmenil dôchodkový systém – tzv. reforma zrušila jednu jeho polovicu a nahradila ju súkromnou fondovou schémou starobného poistenia. Jednou z najčastejšie uvádzaných príčin zmeny boli nepriaznivé vyhliadky demografického vývoja, konkrétne prognóza starnutia obyvateľstva. Predpokladaná nižšia pôrodnosť a predĺženie priemerného veku dožitia budú mať podľa šírených katastrofických scenárov za následok, že na jednu osobu v produktívnom veku bude postupne pripadať viac a viac osôb na dôchodku.

Reforma sa podľa jej autorov robila teda preto, aby sa v budúcnosti nemuseli do priebežného systému dôchodkového zabezpečenia zavádzať síce nepopulárne, ale v každom prípade nevyhnutné parametrické zmeny. Jediným spôsobom, ako môže priebežný systém reagovať na ohlasované vymieranie Slovenska, je totiž znížiť úroveň dôchodkov, zvýšiť odvody do systému, zvýšiť vek odchodu do dôchodku, resp. tieto opatrenia kombinovať.

Reforma sa ľuďom predala ako riešenie, ktoré všetkým tým, ktorí si to zaslúžia, v budúcnosti umožní vyhnúť sa neodvratnému uťahovaniu opaskov. Od reformy ubehlo približne sedem rokov, zákon o tzv. II. pilieri absolvoval cez tucet noviel a nedávno (17. 8. 2011) prišla vláda s Analýzou dlhodobej udržateľnosti a návrhmi na zmenu dôchodkového systému Slovenskej republiky. Materiál sa vypracoval v rámci opatrení vlády na zvýšenie efektívnosti fungovania verejného sektora a zlepšenie stavu verejných financií.

Zaujímavosťou tohto dokumentu je, že formuluje veľmi podobné problémy a riešenia, o akých bola reč v rokoch 2003 a 2004. Inými slovami, publikuje sa, ako keby sa na Slovensku neodohrala žiadna dôchodková reforma s cieľom predísť negatívnym dopadom vývoja v oblasti demografie a verejných financií. A tiež ako keby sa už štvrtý rok trvajúca ekonomická kríza penzijných fondov nijako zásadne nedotýkala.

Vládna analýza nanovo vykresľuje starnutie obyvateľstva a dôsledky tohto javu na verejné financie. A navrhuje to, čo malo napojenie súkromných dôchodkových správcovských spoločností na odvody (teda finančná špekulácia zatiaľ len s časťou odvodov) systémovo vyriešiť – zvyšovanie veku odchodu do dôchodku a znižovanie dôchodkov.

Dokument zároveň mlčí o tom, že druhý pilier je prepadák. Z hľadiska logiky reformy sú spomedzi fondov paradoxne najúspešnejšie konzervatívne, ale ani tie neboli schopné zarobiť ani len na infláciu. Reálne sa teda „úspory“ v tzv. druhom pilieri znehodnocujú.

Ešte v čase prijímania reformy niekoľko kritikov upozorňovalo, že prognózovaný nepriaznivý demografický pomer žiadna zmena iba v rámci dôchodkového systému nebude schopná adresovať. To isté platí aj teraz a výborným spôsobom na to upozorňuje Erik Türk v predkladanej analýze. Jej ústredným argumentom je, že pre dôchodkový systém, resp. vo všeobecnosti pre verejné financie, nie je najpodstatnejší vývoj demografie, ale tzv. ekonomický pomer závislosti, čiže pomer medzi pracujúcimi (a teda prispievajúcimi do systému) a poberateľmi dôchodkov či iných dávok. Tento pomer totiž spolu s cenou práce v konečnom súčte určuje, koľko príspevkov sa vyberie na transferové platby.

V tomto duchu sa nesú aj Türkove odporúčania. V kontraste s regresívnymi odporúčaniami slovenskej vlády znižovať dôchodky a predlžovať dôchodkový vek upozorňuje autor na nevyužitý potenciál v oblasti zamestnanosti. Riešenia v tejto oblasti by prispeli k zlepšeniu sociálnej situácie i stavu verejných financií (ktorý okrem iného do značnej miery zhoršujú práve náklady na prechod k zreformovanému systému).

Pridaná hodnota príspevku rakúskeho ekonóma tkvie v zrozumiteľnej argumentácii a názorných ilustráciách scenárov vývoja a tiež v tom, že autor vychádza z rovnakých dát, ako aktuálna analýza slovenskej vlády (Správa o starnutí za rok 2009 od Európskej komisie a projekcie Eurostatu EUROPOP2008). Predkladaná publikácia v ideálnom prípade poslúži aj ako didaktická pomôcka pre verejne činné osoby, ktoré majú ambíciu prehodnotiť doteraz prevládajúci prístup k zmenám dôchodkového systému.

V skrátenej podobe vyšlo 14. 9. 2011 ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (185)

  • Marián 20.09.2011 10:30

    Aha. Takže nie je podstatné, že občania slovenska vymierajú, ale to, aby dôchodkový systém a systém verejných financií bol zdravý…

    Ja som si myslel, že tieto systémy sú tu pre občanov a nie naopak.

    Ale asi som sa mýlil. Ešteže máme takých skvelých politikov, ktorí nám to vysvetlia tak, aby sme to aj my občania pochopili.

    Čo mi ale vŕta v hlave, že prečo vlastne politici chcú stabilne vyľudňovať krajinu?

    Už 21 rokov žijeme vo vojne politicko-korporátnych mafií verzus občania. Ak chcú občania prežiť, musia zničiť mafie.

  • Tibor Dobročan 20.09.2011 13:24

    Skutočne je to tak, že autori 2. piliera vôbec neriešia problém, ktorý použili a doteraz používajú ako argument na zavedenie 2.piliera. Pokles pôrodnosti ale naďalej pokračuje a zastaviť ho môže len cieľavedomá prorodinná politika vlády a rast životnej úrovne.
    Lenže: I.Mikloš sa nevzdal dogmy, že “prednosťou Slovenska je lacná pracovná sila”.
    Ale lacná pracovná sila je aj lačná- a radšej odíde do zahraničia, emigruje a ekonomické hodnoty vytvára nie pre Slovensko.
    A je tu, navyše,problém nezamestnanosti: Projektanti 2. piliera kalkulovali priam trápne: Akoby počet dnes narodených sa automaticky bude rovnať počtu produktívne činných osôb o 20-25 rokov Vytvárajúcich hodnoty na Slovensku.
    V kapitalizme je však nezamestnanosť zákonitým fenoménom . Systém nedokáže dnes, ale ani o 25 rokov to nedokáže dať reálnu šancu všetkým práceschopným aby boli zamestnaní a vytvárali hodnoty na uspokojenie vlastných potrieb a primeranú časť aj vracali staršej generácie-pre dôchodcov. Zjednodušene a príkro možno povedať, že o koľko sa dnes menej narodí, o toľko menej bude nezamestnaných o 25 rokov.
    A ešte jeden extrém: Ak by sa ukázalo, že pokles pôrodnosti je tak intenzívny, že naozaj o 25 rokov nebude živáčika, ktorý by produktívne pracoval, tak to odnesie celá spoločnosť. Peniaze samy osebe nie sú potravinou a chlebík,autá,televízory atď. nebude mať kto vyprodukovať ! Potom je jedno či si bol v prvom, druhom, a hoci aj desiatom pilieri. Z peňazí sa nenaješ.

  • Ivan Petráš 27.08.2012 10:32

    Spomínaná analýza (Pomer závislosti …) nie je kompletná, a to v zásadných bodoch!

    Štát totiž veľmi dobre ovláda danú problematiku a reguluje nezamestnanosť vytváraním pracovných miest v štátnej správe a v podnikoch, na ktoré má priamy vplyv.
    Samo o sebe by to nemuselo predstavovať problém, avšak iba vtedy keby:

    1. zamestnancov štátu je cca 616 tis, čo je 10% populácie a cca 26% z celkového počtu pracujúcich
    2. štát za svojich zamestnancov neodvádza dane a odvody tak ako bežný pracujúci, zdravotné poistenie čiastočne (myslím, že na úrovni 5%), pričom poberajú, rsp. budú poberať ako keby prispievali plnou sumou!
    3. z uvedeného vyplýva, že do pojmu “závislí na štáte” musíme zahrnúť všetkých, ktorí neprispievajú na príjmy všetkých a nedokážu sa o seba sami postarať.
    Čiže jediný správny pomer je “platiaci do spoločného” vs. “príjemcovia zo spoločného”. A ten je 1.700.800 : 5.440.000, t.j. cca 3:7.

    4. to ale znamená, že 3 (traja) občania živia 7 (siedmich) občanov, už dnes (čísla sú z roku 2010).

    5. Ak sa teda demografický pomer ešte zhorší: infostat: populácia z 5440tis na 4880tis (-11%) a nepracujúcich (mladí + starí) 2137tis (dnes): 2699tis (2050) (+26%) na celkovom pomere 2137:5440= 39% a v roku 2050: 2699:4880= 55%, čiže priemerne pribudne do košiara závislých 55-39= +16%, čiže celkový pomer 3:7 sa zmení na cca 1281tis: 4880tis= 1:4, t.j. 1 (jeden) bude živiť 4 (štyroch), alebo aj dvaja ôsmych.
    Záver:
    Pre demokraciu to má fatálny dopad v motivácii:
    Pracujúci nemajú dôvod vytvárať úspory, lebo vedia, že o ne aj tak prídu. Výsledkom, ale je úpadok pre všetky skupiny obyvateľstva.

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