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Betónová deka na rozpočet

Parlamentný výbor pre financie a rozpočet včera prvý krát odbornej verejnosti predstavil návrh ústavného zákona o rozpočtovej zodpovednosti. Zákon stanoví hornú hranicu verejného dlhu a rastu verejných výdavkov. Deklarovaným účelom je dlhodobá udržateľnosť verejných financií, a teda zvýšenie dôveryhodnosti krajiny na trhoch s dlhopismi.

Lekcia z práve prebiehajúcej „dlhovej krízy“ je na prvý pohľad logická – nezadlžovať sa a nenechať sa zničiť finančnými trhmi. Áno, je pravda, že ratingové agentúry často hodnotia na základe ideologických kritérií, a teda posudzujú stav verejných financií per se.

Skutočných investorov, ktorým ide v prvom rade o zisk, ale zaujíma schopnosť ekonomiky vrátiť požičané aj s úrokom. A táto schopnosť sa neodvíja primárne od čísel na výdavkovej strane bilancie verejných financií, ale od perspektívy, či príjmy budú schopné výdavky vykryť. Výška príjmov pritom závisí o.i. najmä od hospodárskeho rastu a daňovej štruktúry. A práve zabrzdený rozpočet môže najmä v čase krízy znížiť šance obnovy a rastu.

Svedčia o tom aj aktuálne prípady Talianska či Grécka. Talianska vláda ohlásila tvrdé škrty a aj tak sa krajine znížil rating. Podobne je to v Grécku. Situácia ale nie je zlá kvôli tomu, že by Gréci škrtali málo. Veď už aj bankoví analytici hovoria doslova o tom, že Gréci „režú do živého“. Investori prosto považujú svoje investície v zadlžených ekonomikách s biednou perspektívou hospodárskeho rastu za rizikové. A niet sa im čo čudovať.

Je zaujímavé, že autori návrhu ústavného zákona si túto logiku podľa všetkého uvedomujú. Nesúhlasia s požiadavkou úplne vyrovnaného rozpočtu. Argumentujú, že v takom prípade by vláda musela prísť práve v zlých časoch s úspornými opatreniami, ktoré by ekonomiku mohli ďalej posunúť do recesie. Preto je podľa nich lepšie v dobrých časoch šetriť, aby bolo čím platiť v časoch zlých.

Keby sa tento zákon prijímal v čase konjunktúry a donútil by vládu odkladať, aby mohla počas krízy, ako je tá súčasná, pôsobiť proti-cyklicky a míňať, bolo by to pochopiteľné. Ale prichádzať s ním uprostred krízy môže byť klincom do rakvy. A hoci autori zákona túto námietku pripúšťajú v argumentácii proti striktne vyrovnanému rozpočtu, ako keby ju pri dlhovej brzde a limite rastu výdavkov celkom ignorovali.

Je pritom paradoxom, že dlhovú a výdavkovú brzdu ideme zavádzať len pár týždňov potom, čo dlhový strop museli v USA zvyšovať, aby krajina nezbankrotovala. Medzinárodná a historická perspektíva by nás tiež mohla poučiť, že ekonomiky sú dlhodobo schopné relatívne dobre fungovať aj s dlhom vyšším, než 60 % HDP.

Na Slovensku je mimoriadne prekvapujúci konsenzus, s ktorým všetky parlamentné strany ústavný zákon podporujú. Keďže podpora zákona z pravej strany politického spektra je prirodzená, zarážať by mala najmä pozícia Smeru-SD. Práve pred týždňom ich kolegovia a kolegyne z frakcie socialistov hlasovali proti obdobným opatreniam na európskej úrovni. Konzervatívne rozpočtové kritériá Paktu rastu a stability podľa nich obmedzujú priestor pre inteligentné míňanie a cielené investície. Tak otvárajú dvere ďalšej vlne krízy.

Smer-SD možno dúfa, že rozpočtové brzdy otvoria debatu nielen o škrtení výdavkov štátneho rozpočtu, ale aj o spôsoboch, ako napĺňať štátnu kasu. To je síce možné, ale ako už bolo správne poznamenané, žiadne formálne pravidlo nedonúti pravicovú vládu zdaniť dividendy, majetok, luxus, a teda robiť ľavicovú politiku.

Niekoľko bodov záverom. Aktuálne rozpočtové problémy nespôsobuje fiškálna nedisciplinovanosť, ale kríza. Návrh zákona o rozpočtovej zodpovednosti nerozlišuje v kvalite dlhov. Rovnako vníma „dobrý“ dlh – napríklad na investície, a „zlý“ dlh – napríklad nákup zbraní. Zákon ústavne zakotvuje fiškálnu zodpovednosť politikov. Pritom ale nie je jasné, prečo by práve ona mala mať prednosť pred zodpovednosťou za ekonomiku, zamestnanosť, chudobu, životné prostredie a pod.

Preto by parlament tento návrh ústavného zákona nemal prijať. Keďže je to vzhľadom na nebývalú podporu naprieč spektrom prakticky vylúčené, mohli by poslanci a poslankyne aspoň počkať a prijať zákon až vtedy, keď bude jasnejšia perspektíva rastu. A v neposlednom rade by sa mali súbežne prijať opatrenia na zvýšenie príjmov štátneho rozpočtu, vyváženie daňového mixu a na podporu investícií. Inak bude navrhovaný ústavný zákon iba zvieracou kazajkou slovenského hospodárstva.

Skrátená verzia vychádza ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (281)

  • peter kováč 05.10.2011 12:51

    princíp by mal byť presne opačný, nie že vláda môže zadlžovať štát, ale požičiavať si môže len a výlučne vtedy, ak dostane aspoň ú s t a v n ú väčšinu v parlamente na dlh… (osobne by som to zvýšil na 100%, nie 3/5) reči o inteligentnom míňaní sú bezpredmetné, lebo nežijeme v škandinávii, ale na slovensku a natoľko sa už navzájom, aby sme si neverili ani pozdrav dobrý deň , na slovensku kde kradne každý, kto má šancu a najviac politici a dosadené figúrky, takže nepoužívajte falošnú rétoriku o inteligentnom míňaní…

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  • Darrel 25.03.2017 14:38

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  • Chase 25.03.2017 14:42

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  • DE 25.03.2017 14:45

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  • Vanessa 25.03.2017 15:26

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  • Filiberto 25.03.2017 15:56

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  • Tyrell 25.03.2017 16:01

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  • Hyman 25.03.2017 16:05

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  • Charlie 25.03.2017 16:22

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  • Natalie 25.03.2017 16:30

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  • Gordon 25.03.2017 16:35

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