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Tomáš Fiala: Zavádějící grafy o růstu počtu důchodců

Často slyšíme varování, že vzhledem ke stárnutí populace je současný důchodový systém neudržitelný, protože počet důchodců trvale poroste. Někdy jsou tyto zprávy podloženy grafy zachycujícími vývoj počtu důchodců připadajícího na 100 pracujících. Počty důchodců i pracujících jsou však zpravidla odhadovány na základě věku. Často je například prezentován nárůst počtu osob 65-letých a starších připadajících na 100 dospělých osob mladších 65 let.

A přitom se vůbec nebere v úvahu skutečnost, že důchodový věk v ČR od roku 1995 trvale roste a podle poslední právní úpravy má růst neomezeně. Zatímco v roce 1995 byl důchodový věk mužů pouze 60 let a žen v průměru 55 let, v roce 2065 má být důchodový věk mužů i žen 70 let.

Rozdíl v trendu vývoje počtu 65-letých a starších na 100 osob 18-65-letých a počtu osob v důchodovém věku na 100 osob v produktivním věku je přitom velmi výrazný, jak je patrné z následujícího grafu (po kliknutí se zvětší).

Vlastní výpočet na základě zdrojových dat:

do roku 2009: Věkové složení obyvatelstva ČR, Český statistický úřad; http://www.czso.cz

od roku 2010: Prognóza populačního vývoje České republiky, střední varianta, autoři RNDr. Boris Burcin, Ph.D., RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.,

Ministerstvo práce a sociálních věcí ČR, http://www.mpsv.cz/cs/8838

Modrá čára zachycuje (často prezentovaný) vývoj počtu 65-letých a starších na 100 dospělých osob mladších 65 let. Tento nárůst vypadá skutečně hrozivě

Skutečný vývoj počtu osob v důchodovém věku (zvyšovaném podle současné právní úpravy) na 100 dospělých osob v produktivním věku zobrazuje však zelená čára. Očekávaný nárůst nebude zdaleka tak velký, později lze očekávat pokles.

Obě čáry se protínají v roce 2030, protože v tomto roce má být důchodový věk (pro muže i ženy) 65 let.

Z grafu je patrné, že pokud se podaří zajistit dostatek vhodných pracovní příležitostí pro seniory (a „předčasný“ důchod v profesích, kde není schválené zvyšování důchodového věku reálné), neměl by budoucí demografický vývoj nijak výrazně ohrožovat stabilitu důchodového systému.

Samozřejmě za předpokladu, že budoucí demografický vývoj bude probíhat podle střední varianty zmiňované prognózy, která předpokládá postupné zvýšení plodnosti žen na hodnoty kolem 1,7 dítěte na 1 ženu a roční migrační přírůstek kolem 30 tisíc osob.

Autor působí na katedře demografie VŠE Praha (fiala@vse.cz).

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