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Keď kapitán zakopne…

V prvej polovici roka 2008 sa už hovorilo o akejsi počínajúcej finančnej kríze. Nálada vo svete bola ale stále prevažne optimistická, stále sa verilo, že sa to nejako ututlá… jeseň toho roka ešte len mala prísť. Už vtedy ale existovali ľudia, ktorí mali vo veci pomerne jasno. Jedným z nich bol určite Heiner Flassbeck, ekonóm Konferencie Spojených národov pre obchod a rozvoj (UNCTAD).

Flassbecka som videl prvýkrát vystupovať práve v apríli 2008 na konferencii v Ľubľane. Ako hlavný rečník tam vystúpil s príspevkom o úlohe hospodárskej politiky EÚ vo finančnej kríze. Jeho presvedčivá prezentácia na účastníkov a účastníčky zapôsobila. V tom čase totiž vôbec nebolo bežné hovoriť o kríze v Európe, navyše s takou istotou. A mnoho z nás ešte nie úplne chápalo, ako napr. politika nízkych miezd v Nemecku súvisí s prehlbovaním krízy spoločnej menovej únie.

Dnes sú už podobné úvahy bežnou súčasťou odborného diskurzu (médiá v tomto smere, žiaľ, zaostávajú). Flassbeck pred týždňom publikoval článok, ktorý sa zakladá na podobných argumentoch, aké prezentoval štyri roky nazad. Stále sú rovnako aktuálne, no najaktuálnejší je apel nenasledovať Nemecko ako model hospodárskej politiky v eurozóne.

Na rozdiel od všeobecne rozšíreného obrazu zodpovedného Nemecka, ktoré dopláca na rozpočtových „hriešnikov“ eurozóny, je to práve táto krajina, kto spoločnú menovú úniu systematicky a dlhodobo potápa. Menová únia je totiž účinná v prípade krajín, ktoré sa nedbajú vzdať nástrojov národnej menovej politiky, ktoré chcú zosúľaďovať úrovne inflácie, a ktoré teda menovú politiku zverujú do kompetencie spoločnej centrálnej banky.

Nič z toho nie je prípad Nemecka. Už od vstupu do menovej únie tlačila nemecká vláda na odbory, aby sa v mene podpory národnej konkurencieschopnosti zmierili s nižším rastom miezd. Ak teda niekto praktizoval politiku mzdového dumpingu, z ktorej sa často obviňujú nové východoeurópske členské štáty Únie, bolo to v rámci eurozóny práve Nemecko. Doktrína na vývoze založenej cenovej konkurencieschopnosti teda v nemeckom prípade úplne znegovala princípy efektívnej menovej únie.

V ostatných krajinách eurozóny zatiaľ rástli mzdy zhruba tempom rastu produktivity práce alebo ešte rýchlejšie – v druhom prípade sa to týkalo periférie eurozóny (o tom, prečo to tak bolo, písal na Kriteku Milan Vaňko a onedlho napíše znova). Tu niekde sú korene rastu vnútorných nerovnováh v rámci eurozóny. Deflačná (národná menová) politika Nemecka viedla pri absencii národných mien a štandardnej menovej politiky (kedy by mohli periférne krajiny devalvovať) k priepasti v konkurencieschopnosti medzi Nemeckom na jednej strane a juhom Európy na druhej strane.

Nemecku sa podarilo zvýšiť vývoz a získať väčší podiel na medzinárodných trhoch – odvrátenou stranou nemeckých prebytkov obchodnej bilancie boli ale deficity národných bilancií okrajových štátov. A koniec koncov, ak sa ECB pýši dosiahnutím dvojpercentného inflačného cieľa, tak ho dosiahla len spriemerovaním dvojakého porušenia inflačného cielenia – na euro-periférii, ktorá cieľ prekračovala, a v Nemecku, ktoré ho „podliezalo“.

Aktuálne je Nemecko tiež brzdou návrhov, ktoré by pomohli situáciu v eurozóne vrátane jej nerovnováh riešiť. Kladie prekážky ECB pri zrážaní úrokových sadzieb a bráni zavedeniu spoločných eurodlhopisov. Neplánuje expanzívnu politiku na národnej úrovni a odmietavo sa stavia k medzinárodným transferom do krajín južnej periférie. Práve naopak – propaguje politiku škrtov.

Nemecká kancelárka Merkelová pripomína dnes už neslávne známeho kapitána lode Costa Concordia. Naviguje EÚ k skalám, ktoré sú jasne zaznačené. Kríza Úniu už naklonila, ale nemecká kancelárka ďalej riadi záchranné práce z pevniny „národných“ záujmov. Keď sa loď potopí, môže sa vyhovoriť na zakopnutie. Dôveryhodnosť výhovorky ale bude rovnaká ako u Schettiniho – blízka nule.

Skrátená verzia článku vychádza ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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