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Branislav Žúdel: Inflačná panika

Reakcia na rozhovor s Jurajom Karpišom Šetrenie bude bolieť.

Členovia inštitútu INESS sa v slovenských médiách vyjadrujú k ekonomickým otázkam asi najčastejšie. Sú pripravení odpovedať na každú otázku, hoci často je odpoveď rýchlejšia než správnejšia. Potom, čo Radovan Ďurana započítal do nákladov na čerpanie eurofondov aj spoluúčasť SR, sme si mali možnosť prečítať rozhovor s jeho kolegom Jurajom Karpišom, na ktorý sa už oplatí reagovať.

Hyperinflácia alebo skôr hypernezamestnanosť?

Vždy keď centrálne banky rozšíria svoju bilanciu, na internete sa objaví záplava článkov s obavami, že prichádza hyperinflácia. Ekonomická logika týchto obáv vychádza z veľmi zjednodušeného predpokladu, že príčinou každej inflácie je len zmena peňažnej zásoby. Toto tvrdenie má však blízko ku skutočnosti len v dlhšom horizonte, pričom ani to nie je úplne pravda, pretože na infláciu pôsobí aj rýchlosť peňazí v obehu, ktorá sa vplyvom technologického pokroku mení. S rovnakým množstvom peňazí sa dnes dá spraviť oveľa viac transakcií ako v minulosti.

V  krátkom horizonte sú ceny, naopak, rigidné, menia sa len pozvoľne. Táto veľmi dôkladne zdokumentovaná skutočnosť, akceptovaná i tým najkonzervatívnejším ekonomickým smerom, vedie k tomu, že zvýšenie množstva peňazí v obehu nezvyšuje v krátkom horizonte ceny, ale reálny výkon ekonomiky.  Juraj Karpiš sa mylne domnieva, že ak peniaze, ktoré držia komerčné banky, vstúpia do obehu, tak sa zrazu priehrada pretrhne a ceny začnú prudko stúpať. Keďže v ekonomike je veľa nevyužitých produkčných kapacít a vyššia nezamestnanosť, tak je prudký rast inflácie nepravdepodobný.

Iným dôvodom, prečo očakávať v krátkom horizonte skôr pokles inflácie v Eurozóne, je vývoj inflačných očakávaní trhu v Nemecku, keďže tie od leta až do konca minulého roka spomaľovali až ku niekoľkoročným minimám, výrazne pod cieľom ECB. Takýto vývoj umožnil ECB opäť uvoľniť menovú politiku.

Pri veľmi nízkych nominálnych úrokových sadzbách sú centrálne banky nútené realizovať nekonvenčnú monetárnu politiku, čo ale nie je dôvod na paniku. Hyperinflácie sa môžeme začať obávať až vtedy, ak ECB úplne stratí kredibilitu, ukotvené inflačné očakávania sa odtrhnú, a ECB nedokáže stiahnuť nadbytočné peniaze z obehu.

Stabilizovaná peňažná zásoba neznamená stabilitu

Ďalšou predikciou Juraja Karpiša je jeho tvrdenie, že „reálna ekonomika by na tom bola lepšie, ak by centrálna banka mala jediný cieľ a to stabilizovanú peňažnú zásobu.“  Tento veľmi neštandardný návrh menového pravidla vyvoláva hneď niekoľko otázok. Načo mať centrálnu banku, keď nám stačí mať stabilizovanú (konštantnú?) peňažnú zásobu? A vôbec, ktorý menový agregát konkrétne by mal byť stabilizovaný? Čo v prípade, keď už spomenutý technologický pokrok zvýši rýchlosť peňazí v obehu a tým aj infláciu? A čo v prípade zvýšeného dopytu po likvidite? Budeme sa prizerať recesiám? A reálne šoky na produktivitu? Budeme ich efekt ignorovať? Toto je len niekoľko otázok spochybňujúcich prínos tohto pravidla k reálnej ekonomike.

Juraj Karpiš sa tiež snaží čitateľov presvedčiť, že pred Veľkou hospodárskou krízou sa vytlačilo veľa peňazí nekrytých zlatom. Opak je pravdou, údaje pobočky FEDu v St. Louis preukazujú, že monetárna báza bola v 1929 nižšia ako v 1920 a rast cien bol po prvej svetovej vojne až do Veľkej hospodárskej krízy prakticky nulový. A čo sa týka porovnania nedávnej recesie s Veľkou hospodárskou krízou, tak prepad HDP o 30 % sa s nedávnym poklesom nedá porovnávať. Nezamestnanosť podľa pobočky FEDu v Dallase dosahovala v roku 2009 po zohľadnení metodických rozdielov vrchol 10 %, kým v tridsiatych rokoch dosiahla až 30 %.

Bailout je morálny hazard len keď sa to hodí a bank runy nehrozia

Vyjadrenia Juraja Karpiša o bailoutoch sú zmätočné a nekonzistentné. Navrhuje zlikvidovať zlé banky, znárodniť ich a reprivatizovať a za všetkým, ako inak, vidí expanzívnu monetárnu politiku posledných desaťročí. Americké banky však dnes nie sú nesolventné ani zachraňované, čiže prečo niečo likvidovať?

Na druhej strane niektoré európske banky budú možno nesolventné kvôli riadenému bankrotu Grécka, ale nie kvôli dlhodobej monetárnej politike. V EÚ sa pritom často spolu s bailoutom realizuje aj znárodnenie a reprivatizácia presne tak, ako to žiada analytik INESSu. Ten následne tvrdí, že vklady obyvateľstva by mali byť ochránené. Z čoho by však mali byť ľudia vyplatení po zlikvidovaní bánk sa už nedozvedáme. Obdobne nie je vyjasnené, prečo by práve tento morálny hazard mal byť podporovaný. Je len trochu populisticky zdôraznené, že o peniaze prídu iba investori, banky, fondy a poisťovne.

Juraj Karpiš zachádza miestami až do absurdností a čitateľov uisťuje, že žiadne bank runy, čiže hromadné výbery hotovosti z bánk, by po kolapse finančného systému nenastali. Dokonca sa domnieva, že môže nastať opak, pretože ľudia vraj už dnes vyhľadávajú krachujúce banke kvôli vysokým úrokom na vkladoch, pretože majú istotu, že v prípade problémov štát banku odškodní a peniaze im vráti.

Ak mal teda niekto prednedávnom dojem, že napr. pred britskou bankou Northern Rock stoja davy ľudí, aby si vybrali peniaze, tak to je podľa analytika len veľký omyl. Juraj Karpiš uisťuje, že tie davy ľudí chceli naopak do banky peniaze vložiť, pretože sa dozvedeli, že pár dní predtým anglická centrálna banka sľúbila Northern Rock záchranu. Mimochodom, nasledovalo tiež znárodnenie banky a jej reprivatizácia.

V nasledujúcich riadkoch Juraj Karpiš tvrdí, že relatívne pokojné obdobie zažívame kvôli úverom, ktoré poskytla v decembri ECB, čo nepovažuje za zlepšenie situácie, ale za monetárne ópium. Zaujímavý obrat, keďže ešte dva týždne dozadu predpovedal, že „vzhľadom na to, že momentálne by ste po svete ťažko hľadali iné inštitúcie, ktoré by európskym bankám chceli požičať miliardy eur, je  pravdepodobné, že banky peniaze z posledného tendra použijú skôr na vlastné refinancovanie.“ Odhliadnuc od faktu, že toto monetárne ópium bude mať pozitívny vplyv na reálnu ekonomiku, riziková prirážka talianskych ani španielskych dlhopisov na tento krok ECB vôbec nereagovala. ECB totiž nikoho nenúti za poskytnutú likviditu nakupovať a dávať ako kolaterál práve talianske či španielske dlhopisy (a tým znižovať ich výnos).

Nechať Grécko zbankrotovať hneď na začiatku?

Podstatným je aj vyjadrenie, že ak by z eurozóny vystúpilo Grécko a jej nová znehodnotená drachma následne zničila Grékom úspory, tak by v podobných očakávaniach začali aj ľudia z ostatných krajiny PIIGS vyťahovať peniaze zo svojich bánk a transferovali by ich do bezpečných krajín eurozóny, resp. mimo nej. Štandardná úvaha, s ktorou sa nedá nesúhlasiť.

Skúsme teraz ale rovnako uvažovať, čo by asi ľudia z krajín PIIGS začali robiť, keby Grécko pred dvoma rokmi bolo vyhlásilo bankrot tak, ako to navrhuje Juraj Karpiš. Nuž asi by sa v očakávaní bankrotu začali zbavovať aktív týchto krajín. Čo to znamená? Okrem iného to znamená zvýšenie výnosov vládnych dlhopisov, a následne štátny bankrot. Samonapĺňajúce sa očakávania. A či by bankrot skončil len pri krajinách PIIGS, nikto nevie. Preto je najprv nutné mať mechanizmus, ktorý zabráni šíreniu paniky, a až potom sa ukáže, kto je nezodpovedný a koho naopak môžeme nechať zbankrotovať. Pretože ak sa riziková prirážka talianskych 10-ročných dlhopisov v priebehu štyroch týždňov zo stabilnej úrovne zrazu zdvojnásobí, tak to nemá veľa spoločné s ekonomickým fundamentom, ale skôr so sentimentom.

Chybou Juraja Karpiša je tiež vydávanie výšky pôžičky, či výšky dlhov za reálne náklady, avšak tentokrát bol už novinármi upozornený. Takisto je tiež zarážajúce, že írske šetrenie sa dáva za príklad a grécky deficit odsudzuje, keďže v skutočnosti je grécky štrukturálny aj celkový deficit nižší ako ten írsky. Mať vyrovnaný rozpočet na počkanie uprostred recesie je slogan vhodný skôr na billboard, keďže s klesajúcimi rozpočtovými výdavkami  spomaľuje ekonomika, čím klesajú aj rozpočtové príjmy.

Ako ďalej?

Monetárnej politike by v súčasnosti prospelo zbavenie sa fóbie z inflácie a to platí tak pre analytikov INESSu, ECB a aj pre FED. Americký FED má duálny mandát a problémom americkej ekonomiky nie je dnes príliš vysoká inflácia, ale príliš vysoká nezamestnanosť. Možno by naozaj ekonomike prospelo, ak by mala centrálna banka iba jediný cieľ, ale týmto cieľom by nemalo byť stabilizovanie ponuky peňazí, ale stabilný rast nominálneho HDP. Takýto cieľ sa zameriava tak na stabilitu inflácie ako aj na zachovanie zamestnanosti,  pričom nie je nutné debatovať o tom, či má centrálna banka sledovať jadrovú infláciu alebo spotrebiteľské ceny, keďže nominálny produkt sa o infláciu vôbec neočisťuje.

Autor je výskumník akademického pracoviska CERGE-EI v Prahe. Skrátená verzia článku vychádza ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (390)

  • pk 27.01.2012 14:04

    dobrý text, dik, konečne niečo k veci :)

  • juraj 29.01.2012 13:46

    Len dve poznámky k obdobiu 1920-1929.

    Monetárna báza nie sú ani zďaleka všetky peniaze. Takže jej hladina nie je vôbec dôležitá. Je to iba cash. Dôležitejšia býva inflácia fiduciárnych prostriedkov. Keby ste sa pozreli na ne, tak obdobie 1920-1929 vyzerá úplne inak ako na grafe.

    CPI je iba časť cien. Inflácia môže začať napríklad na burze v cene akcií. Alebo cenách kapitálových statkov.

  • peet 30.01.2012 5:31

    Ad Juraj

    Môžeš hodiť nejaké grafy? Aký vplyv má štát na tvorbu fiduciárnych prostriedkov? Proste rozveď to.

  • juraj 30.01.2012 12:22

    peet: Obráť sa na odborníkov. Ja som v týchto iba laik. Len som chcel upozorniť, že mince a bankovky (monetárna báza) nie sú všetky peniaze. Oveľa viac sa napríklad tvorí v bankách pri úveroch. Terajší strach pre hyperinfláciou cien vychádza z toho, že sa peniaze nakotili vo veľkom množstve. Ak sa dostanú medzi ľudí, začne sa aj dvíhanie cien. Dá sa tomu zabrániť, ale niekedy sa veci vymknú z ruky. Terajšie ekonomické problémy vo svete to ukazujú dosť jasne. Tí, čo kríze nevedeli zabrániť sa tvária, že ju vedia riešiť.

    Nevedia…

  • Braňo 30.01.2012 14:53

    1. “Vytlačilo sa množstvo papierových peňazí, ktoré neboli kryté zlatom…”
    -
    Ak chcel autor hovorit o vyssich menovych agregatoch (a nielen papierovych peniazoch), tak to mal povedat.
    -
    Avsak ani M2 nijako dramaticky nenarastol, vid. nizsie graf.
    -
    2. Okrem CPI je konstantny aj deflator HDP:
    http://i41.tinypic.com/1z54vfr.jpg
    -
    Jedine, co rastlo nadpriemerne rychlo bol akciovy trh po 1926. Avsak rast cien vobec nemusi byt sposobeny rastom menovych agregatov, staci ak sa zvysi rychlost penazi v obehu.

  • peet 31.01.2012 5:54

    ad Juraj

    Mňa len fascinuje, že tu napíšeš niečo, čomu sám nerozumieš a vyvodíš z toho odsudok dotýkajúci sa autora.

  • J.V. Dubois 31.01.2012 13:11

    Blogová revolúcia Market Monetarizmu zasiahla aj Slovensko. Celé toto obdobie raz príde do dejín, a ľudia sa budú s podivom pozerať na to ako mohli centrálny bankári tak absolútne zlyhať v roku 2008 pasívne pritvrdili monetárnu politiku a nechali nominálne HDP padnúť o 10%. A ešte sa pri tom tvárili aký sú úspešný vo svojej roli strážcov ekonómie.

    Ku Karpišovi a INESS ani neviem čo povedať. Ak by si dal 5 minút námahy a tieto svoje tvrdenia si napísal pred seba na papier, muselo by mu byť jasné že niečo nie je v poriadku. Neustále sa musím diviť, ako je možné že takáto intelektuálna lenivosť mu prechádza a je jedným z najcitovanejších “ekonomických analytikov” v médiách.

  • Braňo 31.01.2012 15:11

    Je to zaujimave, kedze Bernanke bol za akademickej kariery NGDP cielovaniu nakloneny, daju sa najst 10-15 rokov stare clanky, kde o tom pise.

    Na druhej strane tu mas ale ludi ako Kocherlakota ci Plosser, takze ten prechod nebude taky lahky. Neviem si dobre predstavit ako Bernanke obhajuje uvolnenie menovej politiky v case vyssej CPI pred krizou, ved by ho zozrali.

    Mohlo to byt urcite aj horsie, Bernanke sa bude teraz snazit vyhnut japonskemu scenaru a nepokazit exit, presadil aspon transparentnost a explicitny inflacny ciel.

  • juraj 31.01.2012 16:57

    peet:

    O autorovi som sa nevyjadroval.

    Zarazila ma iba argumentácia ohľadne množstva peňazí s odkazom na monetárnu bázu. Karpiš rozprával pre laikov. Peňažné agregáty by im nič nepovedali.

    Ďalej tu čítam, že pomer množstva obeživa a transakcií za určitý čas (tzv. rýchlosť peňazí v obehu) môže vyvolať infláciu. Tomu naozaj nerozumiem. Chápem, že sa tá “rýchlosť” napríklad v priebehu inflácie cien môže meniť ale považovať ju za príčinu? Inflácia cien po inflácií peňazí mi je jasná. Klesá ich marginálna utilita, a to vedie ku zvyšovaniu cien. “Viac peňazí naháňa rovnaké množstvo tovaru.” Ale prečo by niečo také mal spôsobiť zmenený pomer objem peňazí/suma transakcií? To mi ak príčina pripadá zvláštne.

    Ale ako píšem, som iba zvedavý laik. :-)

  • Braňo 31.01.2012 20:49

    JK obec nemusel pouzit slovo penazny agregat. Na zaciatku si dal tu namahu a trpezlivo vysvetloval, ze inflaciu nevidime preto, lebo vyssie menove agregaty su zatial v klude. Ale akonahle presiel ku VHK, tak uz zrazu vysvetlovanie nie je dolezite, lebo ludia by aj tak nepochopili?

    A co sa tyka rychlosti penazi a jej vplyvu na inflaciu, tak si napr. predstav, ze kvoli panike na bankovom trhu ludia zacnu hromadit doma cash. Peniaze su teda stale natlacene v obehu, ale uz “nepracuju”, klesa ich rychlost. Je to presne o tom, o com pises: zvysenim rychlosti vlastne viac penazi nahana rovnake mnozstvo tovaru.

  • peet 01.02.2012 6:14

    O autorovi som sa nevyjadroval.
    - tak sorry.

  • Ako to teda je? Odpoveď Branislavovi Žúdelovi | INESS | Blogy | eTREND - expert na ekonomiku a financie 01.02.2012 9:03

    [...] Žúdela (ekonóm, výskumník akademického pracoviska CERGE-EI v Prahe) v Pravde a na portáli jetotak.sk na môj nedávny rozhovor v SME ponúka dobrú príležitosť obšírnejšie popísať niektoré [...]

  • kri 01.02.2012 11:23

    @Brano. ludia nemozu doma drzat cash do nemoty, dokonca sa to da spocitat na sotva par dni. clovek aby prezil potrebuje spotrebu, ak chce spotrebovat musi produkovat.

    zla je aj teoria o tom, ze zrychlenie penazneho toku nahana rovnake mnozstvo tovaru. nevidite za roh. spotreba jedneho tovaru prinasa peniaze na vznik noveho tovaru toho isteho druhu. dnes zakupena tv prinasa vyrobcovi moznost vyrobit za ziskane peniaze novu tv, pre dalsieho spotrebitela. vysledkom je, ze rovnake mnozstvo penazi v obehu je aj vdaka vyssej rychlosti penazi “kryta” vacsim poctom statkov. toto v strednodobom az dlhodobom horizonte vedie k deflacii, ktora je daleko lepsia pre vsetkych ludi ako inflacia. deflacia je zla iba v kombinacii s peniazmi vydavanymi na dlh a so samotnym zadlzenim, hlavne v pripade podnikatelskej sfery. ten kto obhajuje inflaciu ten vie o peniazoch velke nic.

  • juraj 01.02.2012 19:12

    kri: Netreba zabúdať, že na trhu sa navzájom vymieňajú ekonomické statky, nie peniaze. Tie iba uľahčujú špecializáciu. Samé o sebe sú (v čase fiat money úplne) bezcenné. Takže výrobou televízora sa získava možnosť vymeniť ho za iný ekonomický statok. Say mal v tomto pravdu, keď sa škriepil s Malthusom. Produkcia (o ktorú bude na trhu záujem) vyvoláva dopyt. Nie naopak. Dopyt podložený dlhom je veľké riziko, lebo je to iba hmlistý prísľub, že sa niekedy splatí reálnou produkciou. Budúcnosť je vždy neistá.

    Osobne sa mi zdá presvedčivé tvrdenie, že svojvoľné machinácie štátu a centrálnej banky s peniazmi do toho prinášajú chaos. Hľadám seriózne vyvrátenie toho názoru ale neviem sa ho dopátrať.

    Iba zase pozorujem okolo seba dlhovú krízu, ktorú pomohli vytvoriť machinácie s tvorbou peňazí a nereálnymi úrokovými mierami. Všeobecná fascinácia životom na dlh priniesla po desaťročiach ďalšiu veľkú krízu. Teraz o to vážnejšiu, že sa do toho priplietol aj vynález wellfare štátu, ktorý nahradil vtedajšie následky vojnových dlhov. Tie sa dali sanovať ľahšie ako dnešné, nereálne záväzky štátu čo všetko ľuďom zabezpečí.

    S ostatným súhlasím a držím si klobúk, lebo sa ide dole.

  • andy 01.02.2012 19:38

    myslim,ze toto video hovori za vsetko:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F4dy8r4oxU

  • juraj 01.02.2012 19:48

    Keď niekto niečo úspešne predpovie, môže to znamenať, že si dobre tipol. Aj keď si osobne myslím, že vie o čom hovorí.

    Na druhej strane ak Bernanke nevidel krízu keď už bola dávno za dverami a trepal o zdravom raste, tak si o jeho schopnostiach nemôžem myslieť nič dobré a už vobec nemôžem brať vážne jeho pokusy krízu vyriešiť. Ak nechcem podľahnúť konšpiračným teóriam, tak musím pripustiť, že zrejme vôbec netuší, čo sa deje, prečo je to tak a ako z toho von. Ale má moc do toho kafrať.

  • andy 01.02.2012 19:58

    este pripajam reakciu J.Karpisa. odporucam
    http://www.iness.sk/stranka/6836-Odpoved-Branislavovi-Zudelovi.html

  • Branislav Žúdel: Ešte raz k inflácii | Blog JeToTak.sk 03.02.2012 7:53

    [...] aj priaznivec libertariánskej školy, Dalibor Roháč. Juraj Karpiš sa však v reakcii na moju kritiku drží osvedčených hesiel. Ja naopak zájdem trochu ďalej, i keď sa budem stále snažiť [...]

  • Ako to, že trh nevyrieši všetko? | INESS | Blogy | eTREND - expert na ekonomiku a financie 11.02.2012 11:31

    [...] Žúdel zareagoval na moju reakciu na jeho reakciu na môj rozhovor. Aby sa z týchto reakcií nestal nekonečný seriál  v duchu „CERGE-EI [...]

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