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Branislav Žúdel: Ešte raz k inflácii

Debata o monetárnej politike sa začína rozbiehať aj na Slovensku. Po mojom blogovom príspevku upozornil na problém nízkeho agregátneho dopytu dokonca aj priaznivec libertariánskej školy, Dalibor Roháč. Juraj Karpiš sa však v reakcii na moju kritiku drží osvedčených hesiel. Ja naopak zájdem trochu ďalej, i keď sa budem stále snažiť reagovať na jeho vyjadrenia.

Inflácia ako indikátor pôsobenia dopytu a ponuky

Veľa ľudí je z monetárnej politiky zmätených, pretože infláciu berú len ako inflačnú daň, ktoré znižuje kúpnu silu ich miezd. Juraj Karpiš píše, že „rastúce ceny nie sú podmienkou hospodárskeho rastu – ani teoreticky ani empiricky“. Túto absurdnosť však nikto ani netvrdí. Prečo majú teda centrálne banky na prvý pohľad takýto hlúpy inflačný cieľ?

Fakt je ten, že stabilne rastúca inflácia nie je ultimátnym cieľom centrálnej banky. Ak by uprostred nedávnej krízy šokovo poklesla ponuka ropy na svetovom trhu a inflácia vzrástla spať na cielenú úroveň, tak to centrálne banky vôbec nespraví šťastnými, pretože takáto inflácia neindikuje rast agregátneho dopytu, ale naopak indikuje pokles agregátnej ponuky. Ultimátnym skrytým cieľom centrálnej banky je stabilný rast reálnych príjmov, avšak cesta k tomuto vedie cez stabilizáciu nominálnych šokov.

Juraj Karpiš píše, že ceny môžu rásť aj pri nevyužitých produkčných kapacitách. Som veľmi rád, že v sa v debate spomína tento fakt, ktorý sa často opomína. Štandardná teória totiž hovorí, že rast cien produktov môže nastať poklesom ponuky, alebo rastom  dopytu. Tieto argumenty sa často mylne diskvalifikujú argumentom, že za infláciu vždy môže len a len centrálna banka.

Ceny teda môžu v krátkom horizonte rásť aj napríklad kvôli zvýšeným daniam. To je prípad súčasnosti, keď viaceré štáty zvyšujú dane (hlavne DPH). Juraj Karpiš vyberá Rumunsko, Veľkú Britániu a Slovensko ako príklady, keď v ekonomikách pod potenciálom rastie inflácia. Príčinou inflácie v týchto krajinách však nie je centrálna banka a zvýšenie peňažnej zásoby, ale zvýšenie daní, ktoré odznie. Aj z tohto dôvodu berú centrálne banky pri svojej monetárnej politike často do úvahy aj jadrovú infláciu, ktorá je očistená o krátkodobé šoky.

Medziročná rumunská inflácia už v decembri 2011 po odznení šokov klesla na 3,2 % a rast HDP bol v treťom kvartáli 2011 najrýchlejší spomedzi štátov EÚ (1,8 % medzikvartálne), čo tiež nie je znakom ekonomiky pod potenciálom. Slovensko malo na prelome tisícročí jadrovú infláciu (teda infláciu ovplyvnenú aj centrálnou bankou)  nižšiu ako infláciu spojenú s regulovanými cenami a nepriamymi daňami. Z tohto dôvodu sú príklady Veľkej Británie, Slovenska a Rumunska v kontexte expanzívnej monetárnej politiky zavádzaním.

Zavádzaním je aj graf Juraja Karpiša zobrazujúci dlhodobo klesajúce ceny počítačov v USA, kde argumentuje, že rigidné ceny nie sú pre IT sektor problémom. Po prvé, už v predchádzajúcom blogu bolo zdôraznené, že rigidné ceny sú krátkodobý jav. Po druhé, razantný pokles cien vidíme na danom grafe aj z dôvodu, že americká administratíva zohľadňuje rastúcu kvalitu počítačov. A najmä po tretie, asi netreba nikoho presviedčať, že pokles cien počítačov nastáva v dôsledku rastúcej produktivity v tomto sektore a každého ekonóma takto spôsobený pokles cien len a len teší, pretože neindikuje žiaden problém. Bol však nedávny pokles cien taktiež dôsledkom zvýšenej produktivity vo svetovej ekonomike? Asi ťažko. Neindikovala teda klesajúca inflácia skôr pokles dopytu ako rast ponuky?

Vojny, psychické poruchy a správy na Markíze

Všimnúť si tiež máme aj „rast cien v dekáde po vzniku americkej centrálnej banky v roku 1913“. Nuž čitateľom odporúčam si tiež všimnúť prvú svetovú vojnu, ktorá nekoliduje s rastom inflácie v tomto období len tak náhodou. Rýchlejšia inflácia je dôsledkom faktu, že štáty v snahe financovať vojny pozastavovali platnosť zlatého štandardu. Hneď po vojne FED sprísnil politiku a až do Veľkej depresie držal ceny stabilné (graf J. Karpiša ukazuje dokonca pokles cien).

Nikto tiež nikde netvrdí, že zvýšený dopyt po likvidite je psychickou poruchou. Skutočnosť je ale taká, že ak zvýšený dopyt po likvidite nie je sprevádzaný rastom peňažnej ponuky, tak sa v konečnom dôsledku zníži reálny výkon ekonomiky. Peniaze jednoducho prestanú „pracovať“, menej peňazí v obehu naháňa rovnaké množstvo tovarov, čiže ceny, vrátane nominálnych miezd, majú tendenciu klesať. Nikto však nemá rád, keď mu zamestnávateľ znižuje plat, a tak ceny neklesajú tak rýchlo ako by mali a dochádza súčasne k poklesu reálneho produktu a nárastu nezamestnanosti.

Juraj Karpiš argumentuje, že „dopyt ľudí po peniazoch nevzrastie kvôli večerným správam Markízy, ale kvôli reálnym signálom z okolia“, napr. neistotou ohľadom pracovných miest. Pravdupovediac netuším, čo týmto chcel autor povedať, ale ak sa v správach na Markíze objaví napr. informácia, že teroristi zničili svetové obchodné centrum alebo že bankrotuje Lehman Brothers, tak to môže dopyt po likvidite ovplyvniť široko ďaleko. A už vôbec nerozumiem postoju k bank runom. Najprv tu bolo tvrdenie, že bank runy dnes nie sú a nehrozia a naopak, že ľudia vyhľadávajú krachujúce banky; potom prišlo tvrdenie, že bank runy sú, ale že ich je málo; a na koniec vlastne tých bank runov dokonca môže pribúdať.

Prečo nefunguje rakúska teória hospodárskeho cyklu?

Achillovou pätou rakúskej teórie hospodárskeho cyklu, tak ako ju prezentuje aj Juraj Karpiš, je predpoklad, že centrálna banka dokáže v každom cykle zas a znova oklamať celý trh. Táto teória predpokladá, že investori nedokážu pri investovaní predvídať fakt, že centrálna banka nominálne sadzby neskôr zdvihne, a teda mylne kalkulujú s príliš nízkymi úrokovými sadzbami. Prečo by ale investori, vediac, že dnešná úroková sadzba je opäť „umelo“ nízka, počítali s touto umelou sadzbou aj do budúcnosti už rakúska teória nevysvetliť nedokáže.

Španielske investície do nehnuteľností sú vraj mŕtve a nepôjde ich oživiť, pretože „nové peniaze totiž nie sú kryté reálnymi úsporami (kapitálové a spotrebné statky v ekonomike) a preto neexistuje krytie na projekty, ktoré sú z nich financované“. Opäť sa musím priznať, že netuším, čo presne znamená tvrdenie, že nové peniaze by mali byť kryté reálnymi úsporami. Znamená to zrušenie frakčného rezervného systému a 100 % krytie peňazí nejakým „reálne“ nespotrebovaným tovarom? Nuž problémy tohto systému rozoberiem možno nabudúce, ale ako som vysvetlil už v predchádzajúcom blogu, podstata expanzívnej monetárnej politiky počas recesie je v tom, že zvyšuje utlmený nominálny agregátny dopyt a keďže ceny sú v krátkom horizonte rigidné, tak rastie aj reálny produkt. Ak by vám šéf ECB priniesol čerstvo natlačené eurá, tak by ste si ten dom v Španielsku nekúpili?

Krízu možno skutočne spôsobili centrálne banky

Juraj Karpiš má však v jednom asi pravdu. Nedávnu recesiu pravdepodobne spôsobili centrálne banky. Avšak nie príliš expanzívnou politikou, ale naopak príliš reštriktívnou politikou. Vráťme sa ku príkladu so Španielskom a pozrime si vývoj nominálnych a reálnych veličín v Španielsku po vstupe do eurozóny. I keď je ekonomika otvorená, rast tak nominálneho HDP (okolo 7,5 % medziročne) ako aj reálneho HDP (okolo 4 % medziročne) je prekvapivo stabilný a inflácia je priemerne 3,5 %. Všetko ide hladko až do začiatku roku 2007. Rast nominálneho HDP začína klesať a v 2008 už ide o voľný pád. Spolu s pádom nominálneho dopytu  padá aj reálny dopyt avšak inflácia sa stále drží na priemere a v 2008 ešte vzrastie, aby v 2009 spadla do mínusu. Čo sa vlastne stalo?

Začiatkom roku 2006 začína ECB zvyšovať úrokové sadzby až do leta nasledujúceho roku, keď rast sadzieb zastavuje a drží. Nominálne aj reálne HDP Španielska začína v tom čase spomaľovať. V roku 2008 prichádza šok na ponuku v podobe vysokých cien ropy, a preto inflácia v 2008 zrýchľuje. Keďže mandátom ECB je stabilná inflácia, tak jastrabia ECB ešte viac pritvrdí a v lete 2008 dvíha sadzby o štvrť bodu. V momente, keď ECB dvíha sadzby, je však už rast španielskeho nominálneho HDP nulový a reálny produkt klesá – Španielsko je v recesii a monetárna politika ďalej škrtí.

V makroekonómii je veľmi ťažké odhadnúť čo by bolo, keby… avšak môžeme sa pokúsiť porovnať vývoj Španielska s vývojom v Austrálii, kde ceny nehnuteľností rástli rovnako rýchlo, ale k žiadnemu prasknutiu bubliny či ilúzii bohatstva nedošlo. Rýchlosť rastu nominálneho aj reálneho HDP bola od roku 2001 v oboch štátoch podobná (v Austrálii rýchlosť mierne rástla) až do konca roku 2006. Na rozdiel od Španielska však v Austrálii pokračuje rast nominálneho produktu v súlade s dovtedajším mierne rastúcim trendom až do konca roku 2008 a následné spomalenie agregátneho dopytu je v porovnaní so Španielskom kratšie a plytšie. Medziročné reálne HDP v Austrálii ani v jednom kvartáli nekleslo.  Z tohto dôvodu usudzujem, že príčinou recesie v Španielsku nebola bublina na (jednom) trhu nehnuteľností, ale príliš reštriktívna politika ECB.

Rast vytvorený „elastickými“ peniazmi v Austrálii nebol prechodný, čiže tvrdenia Juraja Karpiša sú skôr ideologické ako faktické.

Nie, pred Veľkou depresiou skutočne nebolo vytlačených príliš veľa akýchkoľvek peňazí

Analytik INESSu k Veľkej depresii povedal jasne: „Vytlačilo sa množstvo papierových peňazí, ktoré neboli kryté zlatom“. Toto však nie je pravda – množstvo papierových peňazí bolo stabilné (graf sezónne neočistenej menovej bázy s citlivo vybraným počiatočným dnom  to nezachráni). Vyššie menové agregáty nie sú papierové peniaze, takže miesto konštrukcií by bolo možno lepšie priznať si malú chybu.

Čo sa týka širšej peňažnej zásoby pred Veľkou depresiou, tak podľa údajov Friedmana a Schwarzovej (z Historical Statistics of the United States, časť 2, strana 992, stĺpec X 415) sa peňažná zásoba M2 zvýšila medzi  1920 až 1929 o 34 %. t.j. o 3,3 % ročne (viď. tiež Hamilton). Tento nárast bol takmer totožný s nárastom reálnej ekonomiky, čiže v konečnom dôsledku bola cenová hladina stabilná. A na stabilitu cien neukazuje len CPI, ale aj deflátor HDP (zdroj).

Množstvo zlata vzrástlo v rovnakom období o 48 % (časť 2., str. 995, stĺpec X 438), USA boli v tom čase čistým importérom zlata (časť 2, str. 995, stĺpec X 441), čiže zlato muselo byť sterilizované, aby nespôsobovalo rast cien. Pre celkový obraz pripájam aj graf rýchlosti rastu širokej peňažnej zásoby  od Friedmana a Schwarzowej s označením obdobia 1920-1929, kde je evidentné, že ani rýchlosť vyšších menových agregátov nebola nijako prudká a neodlišovala sa od iných období.

A že Dow Jones vzrástol medzi 1922-1929 o 500 %, t.j. o 25 % ročne? Juraj Karpiš sa týmto asi nechtiac postavil na stranu amerického FEDu, ktorý s novým šéfom od januára 1928 dvíhal diskontné sadzby na niekoľkoročné maximá práve z titulu, že treba zastaviť prudký rast cien akcií, hoci ceny na ostatných trhoch už vtedy mierne klesali. Nezmyselné zameranie menovej politiky na jediný trh však prinieslo úplne iný efekt. Akcie nielenže nespomalili, ale ešte zrýchlili, a od januára 1928 do októbra 1929 sa cena Dow Jones indexu zdvojnásobila, pričom ekonomika bola už od augusta toho roku v recesii. A ešte perlička – po kríze, medzi rokmi 1932-1937, narástla hodnota indexu Dow Jones o 500 %, teda asi o 35 % ročne.

Spotrebiteľské ceny sú naozaj zlým cieľom

Plne súhlasím s Jurajom Karpišom, že sledovanie spotrebiteľských cien nie je pre monetárnu politiku  vhodné. Avšak riešením nie je rozšíriť pozornosť o akciové trhy, komodity, kvalitu produktov, atď., ale naopak zjednodušiť cieľ na stabilný rast nominálneho dopytu. Pretože je to práve stabilný rast nominálneho dopytu, ktorý je charakteristický pre americkú Great Moderation. Kým medzi 1985-2007 rástol nominálny dopyt v USA v priemere asi 5,5 % medziročne, tak v súčasnosti je na úrovni len 3,5 %. A to platí aj pre Veľkú Britániu, ktorá je vraj na tom dnes horšie ako za Veľkej depresie, s čím nemám problém súhlasiť. Ibaže aj keynesiánsky Brad DeLong, na ktorého sa Juraj Karpiš odvoláva, vo svojom článku tvrdí, že Veľká Británia má priestor pre ďalšie uvoľnenie monetárnej politiky.

Čo teda vedie analytika INESSu k obavám z inflácie a záverom, že monetárna politika je dnes expanzívna? Rozšírené súvahy centrálnych bánk? Nuž je jedna krajina, ktorá ma súvahu nafúknutú na desiatky percent HDP už takmer 15 rokov – Japonsko. A asi netreba pripomínať, že Japonsko zažíva počas tohto obdobia nie hyperinfláciu, ale jemnú defláciu a hospodársku stagnáciu. Ako som ukázal na príklade Španielska, USA, či Veľkej Británie, centrálne banky nedržali úroky príliš nízko, ale naopak ich zvyšovali nečakane vysoko a dnes sú pasívne. Ak by boli úroky príliš nízke, tak by nominálny produkt musel prudko rásť, čo sa nikde nestalo. Takisto je zavádzajúce obviňovať ECB, že nediskriminovala dlhopisy na základe rizikovosti, keďže o rizikovej prirážke rozhoduje trh.

Riziková prirážka a cost-benefit analýza

Graf výnosov talianskych dlhopisov neobsahuje žiaden komentár, tak ho k nemu pridám ja. Šípka ukazuje na 20. december, v ktorom ECB oznámila úverový program LTRO. Tento graf je trojmesačný, takže je z neho vidieť, že výnosy talianskych dlhopisov po oznámení LTRO zostali na rovnakej úrovni ešte asi tri týždne a až potom začali klesať. Výnos dlhopisu síce nie je jeho riziková prirážka, o ktorej som písal a ktorá počas tohto trojtýždňového obdobia mierne vzrástla, ale to je asi ten najmenší problém.

Otázka je, prečo ak ECB oznámi trhu radostnú novinu, tak investori tri týždne nič nerobia, pozerajú na kôpku peňazí pred sebou (arbitráž) a až potom začnú nakupovať? Dáva to zmysel? Nuž keď ste zástancom teórie, že investori nie sú schopní predvídať, že centrálna banka po zrýchlení inflácie zvýši úrokové sadzby a nekalkulujú s tým v investičných projektoch, tak potom pre vás nemôže byť problém prijať argument, že okrem totálnej naivnosti sú investori ešte aj veľmi ale veľmi pomalí.

Na záver ešte reakcia na dve vyjadrenia:

„Neviem na čo a kde ma upozorňovali novinári, no viem, že ja som upozorňoval každého novinára, s ktorým som tému komunikoval, že  v tabuľke nie sú náklady, ale expozícia voči riziku.“

Neviem, koho na čo Juraj Karpiš upozorňoval, faktom ale je, že rozhovory sa zvyčajne autorizujú, pričom blog na eTrende má nadpis „Účet za euro“ a podnadpis „ Aké sú možné náklady na záchranu meny“.

„Niektorí nás dokonca obviňujú, že sme zabudli zarátať výhody vyplývajúce z eura, čo je už úsmevné. My nie sme verejnoprávne médium, ktoré musí vždy poskytnúť aj opozičný názor.“

Nominálne náklady (aj keby boli bývali počítané korektne) samé o sebe nepovedia nič. Keď chceme zhodnotiť, či máme euro zachraňovať (a teda vystaviť účet za euro), tak treba vyčísliť aj výnosy. Čo by analytici INESSu povedali na to, keby účet za americký bailout obsahoval naopak len 200 mld. výnosov FEDu z nákupu „toxických“ aktív?

Autor ďakuje za pripomienky Tomášovi Lichardovi. Obaja sú výskumníci z akademického pracoviska CERGE-EI v Prahe.

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Komentáre (1 089)

  • Dezmar 03.02.2012 10:06

    Takze 1.6 miliona prazdnych domov v Spanielsku by naslo svojich majitelov, keby hlupa ECB nezvysila sadzby. Realitna bublina vznikla nie preto, lebo na zaciatku CB nasadila urokovu mieru prilis nizko, ale preto, lebo ich neskor zvysila? Len tak mimochodom, cena za 1m4 bytovej plochy v Spanielsku medzi rokmi 2002 a 2007 vyletela o 110% – to mala ECB nechat urokove miery nezmenene? A kde by sa to zastavilo?

  • J.V. Dubois 03.02.2012 10:33

    Asi tak. Dám iba pár poznámok – prvá sa týka toho IT sektora, čo je obľúbený argument ľudí ktorí obhajujú defláciu. V prvom rade musí byť povedaná základná vec – pokles ceny tovaru na nejakom čiastkovom trhu nie je to isté ako deflácia. Pointou je, že z mikroekonomického pohľadu (klasický diagram dopyt – ponuka) máme fixovanú cenovú úroveň (máme zafixovaný rozpočet, z ktorého kupujeme tovary). Kvantita tovaru sa znižovaním ceny zvyšuje práve kvôli substitúcii z iných tovarov akoby “mimo” diagramu. Príklad – ak klesne cena jabĺk (napríklad vplyvom technologického pokroku), tak pri nezmenenej cenovej úrovni sa predá tých jabĺk viac. Prečo? Lebo ľudia substituujú z iných tovarov – kupujú napríklad menej hrušiek a viac jabĺk. Pokles ceny je tu hlavne poklesom relatívnym – jablká stoja menej relatívne ku hruškám.

    To je však na míle vzdialené od “deflácie”. Deflácia (zjednodušene) znamená, že klesne cena všetkého. Teda napríklad cena jabĺk aj hrušiek klesne o rovnakú úroveň. Ich relatívna cena sa nezmení.

    Karpišov blog a definícia inflácie hrá na strunu ľudí, ktorí sa o inflácii dozvedajú akurát tak zo stránok novín. Ľudia infláciu vnímajú ako zdraženie tovarov, nie ako zvýšenie svojich miezd. Je to určitá chyba logiky – ľudia nadávajú na infláciu ktorá zdražela tovary, ale veria že ich príjem rástol kvôli tomu aký sú super pracanti – inflácia s tým nemá nič spoločné. Pri takomto nastavení mysle je ľahké ľudí oblbovať, hovoriť o tom ako je deflácia super (ľudia, vy snáď nechcete aby bol chleba z roka na rok lacnejší) a zamlčuje fakt že výdavky sú aj príjmy, takže pokles celkovej cenovej hladiny (ceteris paribus) znamená aj pokles miezd a iných príjmov v ekonomike.

    Potom ešte k tej ACBT – táto má ešte druhú veľkú chybu v tom, že nedokáže vysvetliť nezamestnanosť. V ACBT príbehu je nezamestnanosť v recesii spôsobená štrukturálne – ľudia sa vplyvom nedokážu dostatočne rýchlo preškoliť na pozície, ktoré sú v ekonomike žiadané, alebo existuje nedostatok kapitálu (vplyvom malinvestmentov) ktorí by mohli obsluhovať svojou prácou. Veľkou otázkou je, prečo sa takéto niečo vyskytuje iba pri negatívnom šoku. Prečo nemáme nezamestnanosť aj keď CB uvoľní monetárnu politiku? Lebo v podstate CB touto zmenou nárazovo mení niektoré dobré investície na malinvestments a podnikatelia sa teda ženú za tým zmeniť svoju štruktúru kapitálu aby dokázali obslúžiť tento nový trh kým bude boom. Ale prečo sa zrazu zamestnanci aj kapitál dokáže parádne využiť bez predchádzajúceho obdobia nezamestnanosti, počas ktorého sa kapitál reštrukturalizuje?

  • J.V. Dubois 03.02.2012 10:57

    Dezmar: Áno, asi takto to vyzerá. A kladieš si zlú otázku. Problém ktorý riešime nie je prečo vznikla realitná bublina, ale hlavne prečo sme ešte aj v roku 2012 v recesii. Bubliny vznikajú a zanikajú všade okolo nás – to je predsa podstata kapitalizmu (creative destruction). Počas “normálneho” stavu to však nevnímame, lebo zlyhané investície sú rýchlo nahradené novými. To je zásadná otázka – prečo 4 roky po kríze milióny ľudí nemôžu nájsť prácu? Prečo sa nerozbiehajú nové projetky a investície do iných sektorov, keď stavebníctvo už je pasé?

    A aby si nehovoril že iba tak trepem, tak dokonca napríklad v USA stavebný priemysel klesal takmer rok pred samotnou krízou. Napriek tomu nezamestnanosť významne neklesala. Zdá sa, že počas boomu nemali stavebný robotníci problém sa zamestnanť inde. Skutočná explózia nezamestnanosti a recesia začala až keď FED nechal ekonomiku padnúť na nos. Viac tu: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2011/01/further-evidence-against-recaluation.html

  • Braňo 03.02.2012 12:19

    Ad Dezmar:
    Nie, nehovorim, ze ECB mala sadzby drzat a vobec ich nezvysovat. Australia tiez zvysovala sadzby a ceny nehnutelnosti rastli rovnako rychlo ako v Spanielsku. Avsak Australia zvysovala sadzby tak, ze neutlmila nominalny dopyt. To, ze rastie ceny na nejakom ciastkovom trhu neznamena, ze hned treba utahovat. Vid. VHK.

  • 4nSICK 03.02.2012 14:09

    Brano, expanzia co nie je podlozena usporami konci povacsine vsade rovnako, su samozrejme regionalne odchylky, ktore obcas narusia dogmu ale… rezervny system bankovnictva, mozme ho volat odborne defraudacia iregularneho depozita, multiplikuje vysku poziciek podnikatelskemu alebo obcianskemu sektora a vplyvom tychto lahkych penazi, vytvorenych z nicoho, dochadza k nespravnej alokacii a investiciam do roznych hrr brr projektov, nakupov predrazenych nehnutelnosti atd., pak nasleduje nesplacanie tychto uverov a pak kontrakcia… co by nebolo az tak zle, keby defraudacia iregularneho depozita nesmerovala do kupovania dlhopisov statov samotnymi bankami… mne pride obcas smiesne ked vidim, ze ECB nakupuje dlhopisy skrachovanych statov a pak media to prezentuju ze sa talianom podarilo predat svoje poukazky investorom za mensi urok… kto su ale ti investori? ECB alebo banky poziciavajuce si miliardy od ECB za maly urok?

  • pk 03.02.2012 14:19

    výborný text

  • peet 03.02.2012 14:36

    4 4nSICK
    Požičiavanie bankového depozitu nie je nijaká defraudácia, ale regulárna finančná operácia o podmienkach ktorej sú informované všetky strany(banky, veritelia i sporitelia). Nikto ľuďom nebráni, aby si peniaze ukladali v bezpečnostnej schránke banky. Zákaz požičiavania bankového depozitu by bol zásah do práv sporiteľov.

  • J.V. Dubois 03.02.2012 14:48

    4nSICK: Skúste sa zamyslieť nad tým, čo vlastne znamená “vytvorenie peňazí z ničoho”? Čo tým chcete povedať? Napríklad že virtuálne peniaze (dkutočne z ničoho) sú horšie ako papierové peniaze, ktoré sú horšie ako mušle a ktoré su horšie ako zlaté dukáty?

    Choďte do dôsledkov. Vadí vám nárast počtu peňazí ako takých? To znamená že ak by sme mali napríklad zlatý štandard, mal by platiť zákaz ťažby zlata? A prečo vám to vlastne vadí?

    Vadí vám spôsob distribúcie “nových” peňazí, teda vadí mechanizmus ktorý určí kto dostane nové peniaze? Kedysi počas zlatého štandardu bola tým mechanizmom ťažba. Ten kto našiel na svojom pozemku zlato bol výhercom peňažnej lotérie a mal prístup k peniazom ako prvý a nakúpil si tovary ešte skôr než sa prejaví inflácia? Dnes máme mechanizmus, že peniaze produkuje centrálna banka a prostredníctvom komerčných bánk ich poskytuje ľuďom, ktorí za ne sú ochotní zaplatiť najvyššie úroky.

    Aleno inal povedané, skúste nejak špecifikovať svoju kritiku – čo vám konkrétne vadí na “produkcii peňazí z ničoho”? Lebo škodlivosť tohto opatrenia nie je tak intuitívna, ako si možno myslíte.

  • 4nSICK 03.02.2012 16:09

    viete, obcas by pomohlo, keby ekonomia nebola osamoteny ostrov ale reflektovala by na to, ako vznikla a ze je to len jedna zo spolocenskych vied… ja som student prava a ekonomii sa nejak extra nevenujem, okrem riadenia svojich firiem, ale co sa tyka bank a defraudacie iregularneho depozitu, nebudete verit, ale podobne problemy, co zazivame teraz, boli uz pocas Rimskej Rise… takze mozno by vam neuskodilo sa nastudovat pojem vklad alias depozitum… podla rimskeho prava bankar, co by robil rezervne bankovnictvo, mohol byt zbicovany a ukamenovany… aj vtedy mali problemy s tym, ze nastala uverova expanzia nekryta nicim, len slubom, ze vam bankar vklad vyplati, u nas funguje ten rezervny system bankovnictva na bezny vklad, teraz sa nebavim o terminovanom vklade, ktory sa da volne prelozit ako pozicka, ak je tam viazanost na nejaku dobu. takze pri 10% rezervnom pomere pri vklade dajme tomu 1000 € dokaze banka vyprodukovat 9000€ z nicoho… ak sa vam to zda v poriadku, oka, mne sa to tiez paci a xcel by som byt bankar, sak to musi byt radost… krasna expanzia, lacne peniaze, kopec dobrych napadov na biznis, kazdemu sa dari a ekonomika kvitne… preco to ale tak uz nie je?
    K zlatemu standardu sa vyjadrovat nebudem, nemam ho nejak dopodrobna nastudovany, ani nie som velkym fanusikom jeho znovuzavedenia, skor by som sa priklonil za urcitu formu komoditneho standardu, ktory by lepsie predstavoval uroven toho ktoreho statu, trebars standard zalozeny na zlate, striebre, rope /trebars zasoby ropy na xyz dni/, vody, psenici… da sa to vymakat, ale nejak do toho nevidim a nebudem sa hrat na odbornika na vsetko…
    Pytal som sa teraz rychlo svojej rodiny a par znamych co som stretol, ci tusia, ze banky ich peniaze z beznych vkladov minaju na dlhopisy statov, pozicky svojim sponzorom atd. zo 6 oslovenych o tom rezervnom bankovnictve 4 vobec nevedeli, takze PEET, myslim ze to nie je standardna financna operacia, je to trestny cin defraudacie, alias pouzitie cudzich penazi bez suhlasu ich majitela, ktory si mysli, ze tie peniaze naozaj ulozene ma… sak sa to aj vola vklad, alias z latinciny depozit, nevola sa to pozicka… posledna banka, ktora dodrziavala 100% rezervny vklad, bola myslim Amsterdamska banka, prezila 150 rokov bez nalievania likvidity zo strany centralnych bank… co je asi rekord… ulohou centralnych bank je teda co? zachranovanie komercnych bank, ked svoju uverovu expanziu a svoj balance sheet dotiahnu do stadia, kde uz dalej nemozu fungovat? tak sa natlacia peniaze, alebo teda naleju cisla, kedze ide o elektronicke? to je co za logika? ak sa vam to zda koser, tak neviem… alebo ked to neurobi CB, tak to urobi stat cez nejaky fond ochrany vkladov, alias natlaci to stat… ale o tom som nexcel, co je dalsich problemom nekrytych penazi? trebars krajiny OPEC cim dalej viac somru, ze nexcu predavat ropu za dolare, kedze od 1971 mame tu dlhovy standard volajuci sa dolarovy standard… neochota Sadama, Kadafiho, Ahmadenirada /nerucim za spravnost ich mien/ vymienat svoju cim dalej cennejsiu komoditu pri dosiahnuti oil peaku za natlacene papiere, za ktore si mozu kupit akurat tak dlh nejakeho statu je dalsim dokazom, ze nekryte peniaze nie su koser… ci je to diktatorska zakernost? peniaze okrem toho, ze su prostriedok vymeny, mali by byt aj uchovavatel hodnoty, apson to bola povodna funkcia zlatych a striebornych penazi, teraz su peniaze co? prud ktory pridu v cislach hore dole a hodnotu neuchovava ziadnu… nedavno som nasiel v nohaviciach 500 SK… potesilo, mozno by sa aj dali vymenit v NBS, ale nechal som si to pre stastie… hodnota tej 500SK je ako prostriedok vymeny ako? 0. Uchovalo tych 500 SK nejaku hodnotu? mozno v zbere papiera by mi za to dali nejaky cent…

  • 4nSICK 03.02.2012 16:10

    viete, obcas by pomohlo, keby ekonomia nebola osamoteny ostrov ale reflektovala by na to, ako vznikla a ze je to len jedna zo spolocenskych vied… ja som student prava a ekonomii sa nejak extra nevenujem, okrem riadenia svojich firiem, ale co sa tyka bank a defraudacie iregularneho depozitu, nebudete verit, ale podobne problemy, co zazivame teraz, boli uz pocas Rimskej Rise… takze mozno by vam neuskodilo sa nastudovat pojem vklad alias depozitum… podla rimskeho prava bankar, co by robil rezervne bankovnictvo, mohol byt zbicovany a ukamenovany… aj vtedy mali problemy s tym, ze nastala uverova expanzia nekryta nicim, len slubom, ze vam bankar vklad vyplati, u nas funguje ten rezervny system bankovnictva na bezny vklad, teraz sa nebavim o terminovanom vklade, ktory sa da volne prelozit ako pozicka, ak je tam viazanost na nejaku dobu. takze pri 10% rezervnom pomere pri vklade dajme tomu 1000 € dokaze banka vyprodukovat 9000€ z nicoho… ak sa vam to zda v poriadku, oka, mne sa to tiez paci a xcel by som byt bankar, sak to musi byt radost… krasna expanzia, lacne peniaze, kopec dobrych napadov na biznis, kazdemu sa dari a ekonomika kvitne… preco to ale tak uz nie je?

  • Jakub 03.02.2012 16:28

    Iba dve veci na obhajovu ABCT.

    1) “Prečo by ale investori, vediac, že dnešná úroková sadzba je opäť „umelo“ nízka, počítali s touto umelou sadzbou aj do budúcnosti už rakúska teória nevysvetliť nedokáže.”

    Bez ohladu na to ci ABCT spravna je alebo nie, autor ignoruje dost bohatu literaturu o ocakavaniach ohladom urokovych mier v ABCT.

    Na zhrnutie argumentov v prospech ABCT v ramci debaty o ocakavaniach odporucam:

    “Why don’t entrepreneurs outsmart the business cycle?” (2007)

    http://blog.mises.org/7045/why-dont-entrepreneurs-outsmart-the-business-cycle/

    2) J.V. Dubois: “táto (ABCT) má ešte druhú veľkú chybu v tom, že nedokáže vysvetliť nezamestnanosť.”

    Moja odpoved: V case expanzie ludia prechadzaju od niecoho co maju k niecomu co je atraktivnejsie, preto tvorba malinvestments nemusi viest k nezamestnanosti aj ked prebieha realokacia zdrojov. V case recesie ludia stracaju pracu, pricom alternativy sa tvoria len postupne pocas ocisty od malinvestments a hladanim noveho vyuzitia pre zdroje uvolnene v korekcii.

    V tom co si nacrtol nevidim nejaku puzzle….

  • Jakub 03.02.2012 16:30

    *obhajobu, nie obhajovu

  • J.V. Dubois 03.02.2012 16:35

    4nSICK: však ten váš režim sme už zažili a volal sa BMG Invest alebo “nebankové subjekty”. Tento systém, kedy si BMG invest prevzal od občanov peniaze (mohlo to byť aj zlato) a dal im za odmenu nejaké záruky vrátenia istiny, pričom peniaze používal na špekulácie vznikol úplne samostatne. BMG Invest presne vedel koľko peňazí potrebuje na uspokojenie klientov, dlhé roky im fungovalo vyplácanie splatných vkladov z nových vkladov presne systémom frakčného bankovníctva.

    Skrátene povedané, systému frakčných rezerv je zakódovaný v ľuďoch a vznikne samostatne a inštitúcia ktorá ho prevádzkuje sa ani nemusí volať Banka. Lebo “banka” je z tohto pohľadu nevýhodnou, nie je dobré volať sa bankou – znamená to že musíte necheť centrálnej banke pozerať sa na vaše súvahy, musíte plniť pravidlá kapitálovej primeranosti apod – presne preto aby ste nerozbehli pyramídovú hru.

  • peet 03.02.2012 16:59

    ad 4nSICK
    Vážený, tiež som priaznivec hľadania pôvodných významov slov. Bohužiaľ slovo depozit má v súčasnom bankovníctve v porovnaní so Starým Rímom posunutý význam. Keď už si teda priaznivec poctivého používania pojmov, potom by si sa mohol krotiť pri použití slova “defraudácia”. Vzhľadom na to, že každý človek vie(je to v súčasťou bankových zákonov), že peniaze uložené v banke budú následne reinvestované(okrem povinných rezerv), nemožno hovoriť o defraudácii. Alebo je podľa teba defraudáciou akt, keď niekto použije tvoje peniaze v súlade s tým, na čom ste sa dohodli?

  • J.V. Dubois 03.02.2012 18:06

    Jakub:

    1) Prečítal som si tie “výhrady” a v zásade sa dá zhrnúť do tohto jedného – CB prináša “šum”, ktorý nie je možné odfiltrovať, podnikatelia nevedia aká časť úroku je “umelá” a aká je “prirodzená”, nedokážu si určiť budúci úrok a čo ja viem čo.

    Sú to staré a známe argumenty, slabé ako čaj. Pointou je, že už desaťročia má FED rovnaký cieľ – infláciu. Ak FED sľúbi odteraz až navždy každý rok presne 2% infláciu (ani chlp viac, ani menej) prečo sa podnikatelia nedokážu prispôsobiť a odfiltrovať tento “šum”? Každý to dokáže, uvediem príklad – chcete si odo mňa požičať 1000 EUR na 2 roky s 3% nominálnym úrokom. Ja si dám do kalkulačky 3-2 = 1, teda 1% je reálny úrok ktorý mi ponúkate. Ak je to aj súčasne trhový úrok pre tento typ pôžičky, je to aj prirodzeným úrokom. To si fakt podnikatelia nevedia urobiť takýto prepočet? Ak by boli obzvlášť chytrí, dokonca by vedeli do zmlúv dať pohyblivé úroky viazané na infláciu, krátkodobú sadzbu FEDu alebo čo ja viem čo.

    Naproti tomu si skúste predstaviť aké onakvejšie výpočty a odhady musia podnikatelia robiť. Musia napríklad predpovedať, aký bude dopyt po ich výrobkoch, aké technológie vyvíja konkurencia, či náhodou ich biznis nezasiahne katastrofa apod.

    Tvrdenie že CB dáva nejaký “šum” je absolútna blbosť. To je ako povedať, že vláda ktorá povie že každý rok sa bude v zime a v lete dva krát posúvať čas bude podnikateľom “zašumovať” skutočný čas. Lebo oni nevedia odpočítať z takéhoto zašumeného času hodinu a určiť prirodzený čas podľa slnka. A preto zatvárajú obchody o hodinu skôr, ľudia čo idú z práce nájdu zavreté obchody a preto nikto nič nepredá a máme recesiu. Šialené? O nič viac ako ABCT.

    2) A v čase recesie neprechádzajú ľudia od niečoho čo majú k niečomu čo je atraktívnejšie? Vy argumentujete predpokladom “v čase recesie ľudia strácajú prácu” – to je super, ale prečo ju strácajú? Videl som viacero prívržencov ABCT používať takéto odpovede – “však to je jasné, v recesii je nezamestnanosť a v boome je zamestnanosť”. Toto je pravda, ale len ak máte na mysli nejaké mainstreamové modely. ABCT hovorí, že nezamestnanosť je vždy štrukturálna a je spôsobená v momente, keď si podnikatelia uvedomia ako boli klamaní a vracajú sa naspäť k “normálnej” dlhodobo udržateľnej štruktúre kapitálu. Ale podľa rovnakej logiky by to malo byť aj z druhej strany.

    ACBT totiž hovorí, že zníženie úroku spôsobí presun zo stredných fáz produkčného cyklu do skorých a neskorých – predstavte si to ako preškolenie robotníkov z tovární na baníkov a predavačov. Toto zrejme prebieha (bez vysvetlenia) bezbolestne a bez nezamestnanosti. Nové bane a nové predajne sa zrejme dajú vybudovať okamžite. Potom nejaký čas máme boom, stredné fázy produkčného cyklu sú podkapitalizované a neskôr príde vytriezvenie, kedy si podnikatelia uvedomia že to bol len klam, a musia sa vrátiť do normálnej fázy produkčného cyklu- všetkých tých predavačov a baníkov musia naspäť preškoliť naspäť na robotníkov. Len tu zrazu nastáva problém so zručnosťami a neviem s čím všetkým, tento prechod trvá dlho a je sprevádzaný nezamestnanosťou. Ak sa pozriete na tento príbeh, tak možno je vnútorne logický a konzistentný, ale nezodpovedá realite.

  • Braňo 03.02.2012 21:32

    Jakub,
    Ta prilepena “literatura” je naozaj slaba. Dakujem J.V.D., skutocne len kratko zopakujem vyhradu:

    “The entrepreneur, then, pursuant to the argument under consideration here, must not only sweep away the fog of years of past interventions, he must also predict what the Fed will do in the future and when it will do it — all while the Fed tries to anticipate what the entrepreneurs will do.”

    Toto je absolutne nepochopenie situacie. Ako pise JVD, to, co robi centralna banka, je uplne predikovatelne a musi byt predikovatelne. Banka nastavuje urokovu sadzbu tak, aby zodpovedala inflacnemu cielu, pripadne urcitej kombinacii inflacie a nezamestnanosti. Vysku Fed Funds si mozte sam doma na kolene velmi dobre aproximovat napr. podla primitivneho pravidla: 1,4 x (jadrova inflacia – nezamestnanost) + 8,5. Cize ak nezamestnanost zacne klesat pod 8% a jadrova inflacia bude okolo 2%, tak ocakavajte, ze FED zacne dvihat sadzby z nuly.

    A naopak centralna banka nemusi nic presne predikovat, pretoze stanovuje sadzbu na zaklade aktualnych udajov (o inflacii a pripadne aj nezamestnanosti).

  • Dezmar 04.02.2012 19:32

    JVD – pozri si historiu cielovania akejkolvek CB a realnu inflaciu. Ten sum sa neda kvantifikovat. “to, co robi centralna banka, je uplne predikovatelne” – …. :) (kto v nasledujucom komente da presny odhad +- mesiac, kedy bude QE3, ma u mna lizatko)
    Ked sa bavime o realite, tak korelacia zaciatku realitnej bubliny a postdotcom nizkych urokovych sadzieb. K tomu Krugmanovskemu ‘hangover’ argumentu o nezamestnanosti tuto http://krugman-in-wonderland.blogspot.com/2010/04/krugman-attacks-austrians.html

  • Jakub 05.02.2012 9:29

    @Brano:

    Nie je podstatne ci podnikatelia dokazu ocakavat politiku Fedu (mas nejaky trackrecord uspesnych predpovedi podla nejakeho jednoducheho pravidla, tak ako si to nacrtol?). Podstatne je, ze v dosledku zasahov do uveroveho trhu nie je jasne, kde maju urokove miery byt. Tym “kde maju byt” mam na mysli kde by boli na volnom trhu s uvermi. To co Wicksell volal “natural rate of interest.” Ked je trh pokriveny zasahmi, tak ani uspesne predvidanie politiky centralnych bank nestaci na odvratenie cyklu tak ako ho popisuje ABCT. Uloha podnikatela je teda este tazsia: nestaci predpovedat politiku CB, ma zistit aka je cena uveru v absencii trhu. V podstate ma robit to, o co sa snazili planovaci cez ich input-output matice (Langeho trzny socializmus, jeho kritika od Hayeka a Misesa).

    Clanok som vybral preto, lebo referuje na papere kde sa o tom pise podrobnejsie (nechcel som zahlcovat diskusiu a postnut vela linkov). Sam o sebe je zhrnutim, pre podporu jednotlivych argumentov treba ist k zdrojom.

    Este davam do pozornosti aplikaciu prisoner’s dilemma: ak je ABCT spravna a niekto by ju aplikoval na realitu, za urcitych podmienok sa mu stale oplati viest sa na cykle, pokial sa vezu ostatni (=je to jeho optimalna strategia).

    @JV Dubois:

    “ABCT hovorí, že nezamestnanosť je vždy štrukturálna a je spôsobená v momente, keď si podnikatelia uvedomia ako boli klamaní a vracajú sa naspäť k “normálnej” dlhodobo udržateľnej štruktúre kapitálu. Ale podľa rovnakej logiky by to malo byť aj z druhej strany.”

    Nechapem preco by to malo byt aj z druhej strany. Je to inak aj Krugmanova kritika. Malinvetments prebiehaju zaroven s overinvestments. Ked sa meni produkcna struktura a zaroven je expanzia, tak to nemusi znamenat narast nezamestnanosti. Celkove kapacity narastaju a zaroven sa meni struktura. V recesii sa struktura meni a zaroven sa kapacity okresavaju. Preco by tam niekto ocakaval symetricky dopad na zamestnanost? V realite to ma podobu napriklad lisiacich sa temp rastu zamestnanosti v expanzii, tj prebieha restrukturalizacia (relativne rozlozenie zdrojov), zamestnanost pritom neklesa. Nieco taketo:

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?graph_id=55668

    “ACBT totiž hovorí, že zníženie úroku spôsobí presun zo stredných fáz produkčného cyklu do skorých a neskorých.”

    Toto je jedna z veci ktora je mierne nejasna (aspon pre mna). Z miektorych interpretacii ABCT je to tak, z ide jednoducho o presun od neskorsich k skorsim. Ide o to, ze derived-demand effect, ktory ma po znizeni urokovych mier stimulovat neskore fazy, je prevazeny diskontnym efektom, ktory stimuluje odvetvia tym viac, cim su na skorsej faze produkcnej struktury.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 11:57

    Jen bych si dovolil reakci na tohle:

    “Achillovou pätou rakúskej teórie hospodárskeho cyklu, … je predpoklad, že centrálna banka dokáže v každom cykle zas a znova oklamať celý trh.”

    Každá teorie, která si dělá nárok na vysvětlení ekonomického cyklu, musí vysvětlit fakt, proč dochází k nahromadění podnikatelských chyb a jejich odhalení v krátkém časovém úseku. Proč prostě nejsou podnikatelské chyby nějak statisticky rovnoměrně rozložené v čase, ale dochází k jejich nakupení. A rakouská teorie – alespoň pro mě – představuje koherentní a přesvědčivé vysvětlení. Prostě významná část podnikatelů (což nemusí být celý trh) reagovala na nesprávné podněty které jim vyslala nesprávná cena. Ve skutečnosti to není tak složité pochopit proč k tomu dochází zas a znova. Stačí k tomu jen analogie s tím, co se stane, když centrální plánovací komise v socialismu nastaví příliš nízkou cenu toaletního papíru. Lidé se vrhnou do fronty na toaletní papír, protože mají možnost dostat ho za nízkou cenu – právě proto, že předpokládají, že ta cena buď dlouho nízká nevydrží, nebo se na ně prostě nedostane. A dojde k neefektivní alokaci prostředků – někteří v té frontě budou stát zbytečně (už se na ně nedostane) a někteří, kteří tam stáli první, si toho toaleťáku pro jistotu naberou do zásoby víc než by využili. Stejně tak, když se uměle zlevní půjčky, tak se podnikatelé zas a znova na ně budou vrhat a zas a znova půjdou na velkou finanční páku. Protože ti, co budou první, tak opravdu můžou dosáhnout i nadprůměrného zisku (stejně jako ti, co budou první ve frontě na toaleťák, ho dostanou opravdu za nízkou cenu). Horší to mají ti, co je chtějí později napodobit.

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 14:22

    Dezmar:
    Priemerna inflacia v EMU je takmer presne 2%. To, ze nie je kazdy rok 2% je absurdny argument.
    “http://www.ecb.int/mopo/html/index.en.html”

    Co sa tyka QE3, tak o nekonvencnej politike sice nebola rec, ale napisal som jasne, ze aj QE musi byt predikovatelne. FED to pochopitelne este nema ujasnene, ale dal by sa na zaklade par ukazovatelov zostrojit podmieneny odhad (teda, ze ked bude inflacia x, nezamestnanost y, a urokove sadzby 0, tak vtedy pride ku QE3).

    Zaujimavy nie je zaciatok “bubliny”, ale jej koniec – 2 roky pred krizou:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=4O9

    Jakub:
    To pravidlo je odhadnute prave z pohybu sadzieb FEDom. Kedze vies, ze FED sleduje kombinaciu inflacie a nezamestnanosti, tak ti staci jednoduchou regresovat sadzby na tychto dvoch premennych a dostanes koeficienty. Tie koeficienty, co som tam dal ja, su 10 rokov stare, takto vyzera novsi odhad (cize cakaj dvihanie sadzieb az ked nezamestnanost atakuje 7% a inflacia bude 2%):
    http://www.kajulew.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Liquidity-Trap.png

    Natural rate of interest vidis jednoducho vtedy, ked je ekonomika na svojom dlhodobom potenciali. Asi by som si mal zato vypytat strasne peniaze, ale tak ja zadarmo prezradim, ze su to asi 3%.

    Langeho planovac mal planovat marginalne naklady vsetkych tovarov, co je trosicku nieco ine :)

    Vyber teda z toho clanku tie dalsie zdroje a prilep kritiku.

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 15:05

    Finist:
    Pre mna rakuska teoria zo vsetkych ponuka asi najslabsie vysvetlenie.

    RBC skola ponuka aspon vysvetlenie, ze tieto chyby su sposobene neschopnostou ludi predvidat realne soky: zemetrasenie, atd. OK, na poslednu krizu je to nepouzitelne, ale kedysi sa dalo. Ludia dokazu predpovedat vela, ale niektore veci sa proste nedaju.Fajn. Ale ABCT?

    Co sa tyka toho prikladu s toaletnym papierom, takza socializmu sa ludia racionalne predzasobovali, pretoze velmi spravne ocakavali nedostatok. Alokacia nie je neefektivna, lebo na niekoho sa nedostalo a na niekoho ano. To je otazka distribucie. Alokacia je neefektivna ked pri rovnakom mnozstve vstupov je na trhu menej toaletneho papiera.

    Co sa tyka poziciek, tak ano, zvysenim ponuky penazi znizim ceny uverov a na trhu ich bude viac. To samozrejme nijak neimplikuje, ze ti, co si zobrali uvery neskor kvoli vyssim sadzbam skrachuju, kedze zvysenie zakalkuluju do hodnoty projektu.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 15:10

    “Langeho planovac mal planovat marginalne naklady vsetkych tovarov, co je trosicku nieco ine”

    Tam v principu není rozdíl. Tak jako planovači nedokázali naplánovat “správnou” cenu toaletního papíru tak nedokáží plánovači v centrálních bankách plánovat “správnouL” cenu peněz. (respektive ať už udělají s těmi nástroji, co mají v rukou pro “dolaďování” té ceny – anébrž úrokové míry – cokoliv, tak to nevyhnutelně udělají blbě). A výsledky jsou v obou případech totožné – chybná cenová informace vede k nadspotřebě/podspotřebě; nevyužití kapacit/přetížení kapacit, nakupení chybných rozhodnutí. Akorát co bylo za socialismu permanentním stavem se dnes projevuje jen čas od času (samozřejmě s výjimkou státních sektorů, jako je pošta, zdravotnictví, školství a podobně, kde se to dodnes takhle projevuje pořád).

    “Natural rate of interest vidis jednoducho vtedy, ked je ekonomika na svojom dlhodobom potenciali.”

    Jinými slovy je to tehdy, kdy jsou všechny trhy v rovnováze. Jak píše Hazlitt (když parafrázuje Irwinga Fishera):
    “Pokud by například tržní úrokové míry měly být v „celkové“ rovnováze, tak zde jsou některé z věcí, které by musely být vyrovnané:
    1. Nabídka s poptávkou po kapitálu (i.e., nabídka úspor s poptávkou po investicích).
    2. Cena kapitálových instrumentů s náklady na jejich produkci.
    3. Příjem z kapitálového zboží s jeho cenou a náklady na produkci.
    4. „Mezní výnosy z kapitálu“ s mírou časového diskontu (časovou preferencí).
    5. Nabídka zapůjčitelných (peněžních) fondů s poptávkou po zapůjčitelných fondech.
    atd.”

    Jenže jak poznat, kdy to nastává? Když většina trhů, kde by se mělo něco z toho projevit, jsou v dnešním systému dost pokřivené? A dokud nebudou fungovat normálně, tak nikdo nemůže vědět, jaká by ta přirozená úroková míra na tom trhu vznikla a nemá cenu střílet od boku čísla.

  • Jakub 05.02.2012 15:25

    @Brano

    Regresia sadzieb na CPI inflacii a zamestnanosti:
    ked 3 agregaty nejaku dobu vykazovali nejaky kvantitativny vztah, preco by si mal ocakavat ze budu aj do buducnosti? Mozu a nemusia. Tie regresne koeficienti ti vravia toto: ak vztahy ostanu take ake boli v obdobi z ktorych data si pouzil v regresii (pri zanedbani vsetkych vela inych premennnych), tak sa to da pouzit ako predpoved. Inymi slovami extrapolacia minulosti do bududcnosti. Podla mna na to dobry dovod nie je, oni (CB) nemaju ziadne explicitne benchmarky k urcovaniu mier. O to viac to plati ked maju dualny mandat. (aky treade-off medzi dvoma zlami si zvolia?…ak teda veris ze ten trade-off vobec existuje)

    “Natural rate of interest vidis jednoducho vtedy, ked je ekonomika na svojom dlhodobom potenciali.”

    Nie. Ide o mieru ktora by bola vysledkom nemanipulovanu trhu zapozicnych fondov. Taka miera koordinuje alokaciu zdrojov v sulade s casovymi preferenciami. Taka miera koordinuje uroven odlozenej spotreby s investicnymi planmi. Ak v prostredi kartelizovaneho bankoveho trhu (teda vo svete s centralnymi bankami) v urcitom momente nahodou rast HDP koresponduje s tym co povazujes za dlhodoby potencial, preco by to malo znamenat ze mame natural interest rate? Nevidim na to dovod.

    Lange: Netvarim sa ze o tom vela viem, cital som len jeho jednu esej a jej kritiku. Wiki ale vravi toto:

    “The central planning board sets the initial price of consumer goods arbitrarily and informs the producing firms of these prices. The firms would then produce at the level of output where marginal cost is equal to price, MC=P, and where the cost of production is minimized.”

    Ide teda o stanovenie ceny vyrobnych faktorov na zaklade arbitrarneho ocenenia produktu. Stanovovanie urokovych mier je rovno arbitrarne ocenenie vyrobneho faktoru, co mi pride ako este o stupen ambicioznejsi plan. Podla mna je to relevantne porovnanie.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 15:36

    “RBC skola ponuka aspon vysvetlenie, ze tieto chyby su sposobene neschopnostou ludi predvidat realne soky: zemetrasenie, atd. OK, na poslednu krizu je to nepouzitelne, ale kedysi sa dalo. Ludia dokazu predpovedat vela, ale niektore veci sa proste nedaju.Fajn.”

    Jenže tohle ABCT nijak nepopírá. A na to, že když dojde k zemětřesení/pádu meteoritu/ kobercovýmu bombardování tak se to nějak projeví v poklesu výroby není přece ani potřeba žádná ekonomická teorie. Teorie je potřeba na vysvětlení toho nahromadění podnikatelských chyb, které nemá žádnou takovouhle jednoznačně identifikovatelnou příčinu ve faktorech, se kterými lidi nemohli počítat, když si vytvářeli své plány.

    A s čím v tomhle případě přicházejí ostatní? Lidé se prostě psychologicky chovají stádně podle nějakého “animal spirit”? To je zase vysvětlení, které nic nevysvětluje.

    Dejte si dohromady (1)Hayeka – šíření a decentralizované využívání informací ve společnosti. Cenový systém je informační systém. Výrobce co vyrábí něco cínu se bude zařizovat podle ceny cínu aniž by musel řešit, zkoumat nebo vědět, z jakého důvodu se cena cínu pohla nahoru nebo dolů. A ceny koordinují celou strukturu výroby.
    (2) Krize jsou naakumulované chyby ve struktuře výroby. A kam jinam zaměřit pozornost než na tu nejdůležitější ze všech cen, která se promítá do všech cen ostatních – úrokovou míru? Když dojde v chybě v téhle ceně – v úrokové míře, tak nevyhnutelně dojde k nakupení chyb ve struktuře výroby. I kdyby všichni na trhu nakrásně věděli, že tak, jak je, tak je úroková míra špatná, tak stejně nebudou schopni odhadnout tu správnou. Protože nic jiného než ceny v sobě prostě nezahrune všechny rozptýlené informace od všech lidí co se transakcí na trhu účastní.

    To proto nabízí peněžní teorie cyklu to nejsilnější vysvětlení (imho) aniž by se museli uchylovat k nějakému šarlatánství jako “animal spirit”. Každému je přece jasné, že když bude cena cínu špatně (třeba jí zreguluje vláda), tak nevyhnutelně dojde k narušení výroby. Ať už mohou být schopnosti předvídat tržních aktérů jakkoliv vysoké. A tenhleten samý poznatek stačí aplikovat na peníze.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 16:31

    A ještě bych měl jednu poznámku technického rázu k tomuhle tomu:

    “Analytik INESSu k Veľkej depresii povedal jasne: „Vytlačilo sa množstvo papierových peňazí, ktoré neboli kryté zlatom“. Toto však nie je pravda – množstvo papierových peňazí bolo stabilné (graf sezónne neočistenej menovej bázy s citlivo vybraným počiatočným dnom to nezachráni). Vyššie menové agregáty nie sú papierové peniaze, takže miesto konštrukcií by bolo možno lepšie priznať si malú chybu.”

    Tady se zase naráží do určitého rozdílu mezi tím,jak systém vypadal tehdy a jak vypadá dnes, respektive co by za “peněžní bázi” šlo považovat tehdy a co se za peněžní bázi považuje dnes. Z tehdejšího pohledu by peněžní bází bylo čistě a jen zlato (zlaté mince + zlaté cihly). Bankovky by už byly úvěrovým nástrojem a patřily by do stejného měnového agregátu jako bankovní depozita. A takhle to bylo brané i některými peněžními autoritami v té době (např. Benjamin Anderson). Existovaly tři druhy bankovek, které byly na federální úrovni zákonným platidlem – zlaté certifikáty, federal reserve notes a greenbacky. Pokud bysme trvali na definicích Fishera, který zákonné bankovky řadil k základním penězům, tak možná by se daly zařadit do peněžní báze, byť by vzhledm k tomu, že byly ještě směnitelné za zlato, nebyly už těmi úplně základními penězi. A možná, že o jejich množství, ještě existují přesné informace. Pak tam bylo něco okolo 14 000 “národních bank”, které vydávaly vlastní bankovky až do roku 1935.
    Ty vypadaly třeba takhle: http://thingsforgottenantiques.com/images/arcola.jpg

    Podle těch nápisů je to z ekonomického hlediska zcela ekvivalent depozit – banka prostě slibuje proti tomu zaplatit na požádání “zákonnou měnu” Takže ty by se řadili do jakého Mka? Z logiky věci do toho vyššího. A přitom jde ovšem fyzicky o bankovku že.

    Takže tam vůbec není vidět žádná jednoznačná chyba v tvrzení, že bylo “vytištěno hodně bankovek oproti zlatu”. Základním faktorem zhroucení bylo to, že bylo několikanásobně více nároků na zlato než bylo v bankovním systému zlata k dispozici. A to, že tyhle nároky byly v podobě bankovek nebo šekovatelných depozit nehrálo v té době takovou roli. Mohly být klidně v obojím a do toho přehledu M-ka basic se to vůbec nemuselo dostat, protože tyhle bankovky nebyly zákonnými penězi.

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 16:51

    Jakub:

    1. Otazka znie, preco si ABCT mysli, ze ludia (investori) tuto regresiu v danom obdobi nevideli a nezariadili sa podla nej, ale nechali sa oklamat.

    2. Druhy dovod je ten, ze ak by sa CB k tomu nezaviazala, tak ju trh ignoruje. Ak by robila CB diskretne opatrenia s cielom zakazdym trh precikat, tak jej trh neveri, strati kredibilitu. Preto su CB rule-based, teda sleduju nejake pravidlo a k nemu sa zavazuju (gugli time inconsistency).

    FED napr. vyhlasil, ze podrzi sadzby na nule az do polovice 2013. Ak je FED v ociach trhu kredibilny, tak toto vyhlasenie povzbudi dnes ekonomiku. Ak by FED kredibilny nebol, tak to vyhlasenie ekonomiku dnes nepodpori, lebo trh FEDu neuveri, ze slovo dodrzi. Tiez plati, ze ak FED zdvihne sadzby skor, aby znizil moznu inflaciu, tak si kredibilitu rozhodne nezvysi.

    3. CB nepotrebuju explicitne benchmarky, staci, ze su perfektne citatelne.

    —————————————-

    Pokial ekonomika slape na svojom potenciali a neexistuje tlak na inflaciu, tak moja naturalna urokova miera je rovnaka ako tvoja. Nie je ziadna nezhoda medzi dopytom a ponukou.

    CB nie su kartelizovany trh, kedze im ani nejde o zisk.

    ——————————————-

    V pripade centralne planovanej ekonomiky musis zmerat marginalne naklady kazdeho jedneho produktu a tak stanovit cenu (MC=P). Mises aj Hayek argumentovali, ze toto je nemozne.

    Stanovenie urokovej sadzby je oproti centralnemu planovaniu uplna brnkacka.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 17:06

    “2. Druhy dovod je ten, ze ak by sa CB k tomu nezaviazala, tak ju trh ignoruje. Ak by robila CB diskretne opatrenia s cielom zakazdym trh precikat, tak jej trh neveri, strati kredibilitu. Preto su CB rule-based, teda sleduju nejake pravidlo a k nemu sa zavazuju (gugli time inconsistency).”

    Kdyby se CB jen řídila nějakými pevnými pravidly, tak žádnou CB nepotřebujeme. Stačí nám jen ten Friedmanovský počítač.
    A veškerá monetární politika je založená na tom, že CB v určitých situacích trh přečůrat může – může nějak vylepšit výsledky trhu oproti stavu, ve kterém by neexistovala.

    “Stanovenie urokovej sadzby je oproti centralnemu planovaniu uplna brnkacka.” Evidentně není. Kdyby to byla taková brnkačka, tak tu nevznikají žádné cykly :-)

  • Jakub 05.02.2012 17:12

    @Brano

    Vyzera to na agreement to disagree, hlavne co sa tyka moznosti uspesne imitovat trh administrativne stanovenymi urokovymi mierami (nemyslim ze je to brnkacka). Tiez nemyslim ze mozes povedat co ma byt v danej chvili prirodzena urokova miera (to by museli podnikatelia vediet a brat to do uvahy aby bola validna namietka o ocakavaniach v ABCT).

    CB su kartel preto, lebo ked vedu bankovy sektor umoznuju im (bankam) stlacit rezervy nizsie ako by to bolo v prostredi free bankingu. V absencii takeho kartelu sa jedna banka, ktora ide s rezervnym pomerom prilis nizko vystavuje riziku odcerpania rezerv voci konzervativnejsim bankam (a riskuje neschopnost plnit zavazky). Lender of last resort tento prirodzeny trzny limit na uverovu expanziu odstranuje. Pri monopolnej mene vznika tiez klasicky common pool problem, kedy jednotlive banky plne nenesu dosledky svojich rozhodnuti pri poskytovani uverov. To vsetko by mohli byt oblasti konkurencie v bankovom sektore. Namiesto toho je trh kartelizovany pod vedenim CB. Ci im ide o zisk? Bez spekulacii o motivoch sa da povedat, ze ak mozu banky pri rovnakom kapitale poskytnut viac urokov (a nenarastie pomer odpisanych), budu ziskovejsie.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 17:12

    Ačkoliv stejně mě zaráží jedna věc:

    Buď jsou lidé natlik prozíraví, že v každý okamžik dokáží prohlédnout všechno, co je na ně centrální banka schopna ušít – a pak jde o instituci zhola zbytečnou. Nebo to nejsou schopni prohlédnout a centrální banka je může přimět dělat něco, co by jinak dělat nechtěli – a pak je to instituce škodlivá. Tak nebo tak tu není důvod pro její existenci :-)

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 17:44

    Finist:

    ABCT je v priamom rozpore s RBC, pretoze ABCT investor nie je schopny predvidat absolutne nic, zatial co RBC investor je v predikciach dokonaly (s vynimkou realnych sokov).

    Sam tvrdite, ze zvysenie urokovej sadzby je faktor, s ktorym sa nedalo pocitat, ked si ludia vytvarali plany. Pricom kazdy jeden clovek aj tu na diskusii vie, ze sadzby pojdu hore. ABCT proste stoji na tom, ze ludia maju totalne naivne ocakavania, ze sucasna sadzba sa nezmeni. To je len tazko obhajitelne.

    Ostatni? No ved o tom je cely moj clanok. Vid. porovnanie Spanielska s Australiou. Ziadne animal spirits. Mimochodom, ABCT tiez nepopisuje preco sa cyklus prevrati a “bublina praskne”.

    Stale na to pozerate cez nejake naakumulovane chyby v strukture vyroby, ci co. Ked CB zdvihne od zajtra sadzby z 0% na 20%, tak nasledna kriza bola dosledkom chybnej struktury vyroby? Nuz podla mna nie. Podla mne bola chyba v tom, ze CB zaviedla prudko restriktivnu politiku.

    Ludia predsa vobec nepotrebuju odhadnut nejaku spravnu urokovu mieru. To akoze vsetci ti, co neskrachovali dobodky spravne nieco odhadli?

    Ano, ak bude sadzba stanovena zla, tak tu mame inflaciu a prehrievanie, pripadne deflaciu a prepad. Penazne teorie su uplne v poriadku, suhlasim, ale nie ABCT.
    ——————————————

    “Z tehdejšího pohledu by peněžní bází bylo čistě a jen zlato (zlaté mince + zlaté cihly). ”

    Nie. Friedman a Schwartzova si boli vedomi institucionalnych rozdielov. Obezivo nezahrna len zlato, ale aj ostatne bankovky. Vid. zdroj v clanku. Cize je tam chyba. Okrem toho ste zabudli na zlate mince, ci strieborne certifikaty, napr. tu:
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/US_%245_1923_Silver_Certificate.jpg

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 17:48

    “Buď jsou lidé natlik prozíraví, že v každý okamžik dokáží prohlédnout všechno, co je na ně centrální banka schopna ušít – a pak jde o instituci zhola zbytečnou. Nebo to nejsou schopni prohlédnout a centrální banka je může přimět dělat něco, co by jinak dělat nechtěli – a pak je to instituce škodlivá.”

    Tak to sme sa asi nepochopili. Banka na ludi nic nesije, a preto su obe strany spokojne. CB sa sprava podla jasnych pravidiel. Ak by sa snazila trh oklamat (najprv nieco slubi a potom nedodrzi), tak by ju trh zacal ignorovat a neveril by jej.

  • J. V. Dubois 05.02.2012 17:49

    Finist: Aj rule based centrálna banka má svoje opodstatnenie. Aj keď centrálna banka nemá moc dlhodobo držať ekonomiku mimo prirodzenej rovnováhy, má moc presunúť ekonomiku do inej rovnováhy. Prestavte si, že existujú dve ekvilibriá, stabilná ekonomika s 10% nezamestnanosťu a ekonomika s 3% nezamestnanosťou. V tomto prípade rule based monetárna politika môže hrať rolu v tom aby sa ekonomika držala v tej výhodnejšej rovnováhe, ak si výhodnosť určíme podľa nejakých naších kritérií.

    Je to praktická otázka z teórie hier. Centrálna banka a jej politika vie slúžiť ako fokálny bod pre najlepšiu alternatívu z pohľadu ekonomiky, má hlavne koordinačnú rolu.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 17:59

    “Prestavte si, že existujú dve ekvilibriá, stabilná ekonomika s 10% nezamestnanosťu a ekonomika s 3% nezamestnanosťou.”

    To je naprosto nesmyslný předpoklad. Neexistuje žádná rovnovážná situace s nezaměstnaností. Pokud je nezaměstnanost, tak to znamená, že někde existuje nerovnováha. A pokud je nezaměstnanost dlouhodobá, tak existuje nerovnováha trvale a institucionálně udržovaná. A v takové situaci se monetární politika – bez odstranění skutečných příčin nezaměstnanosti – naprosto mine účinkem.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:08

    “ABCT je v priamom rozpore s RBC, pretoze ABCT investor nie je schopny predvidat absolutne nic, zatial co RBC investor je v predikciach dokonaly (s vynimkou realnych sokov).”

    Tak to se naprosto mýlíte. ACBT tvrdí, že jednou ze základních podnikatelských schopností je schopnost predikovat budoucí stav trhu. Podnikatelé můžou tuhle schopnost mít v různé míře, ale kontinuální selekční tlak bude působit na to, že na trhu budou zůstávat hlavně ti, co jsou v tom nadprůměrně úspěšní. Takže máme pak vyselektovanou skupinu podnikatelů, kteří dokáží nadprůměrně dobře predikovat budoucí stav trhu – a v jednu chvíli najednou podstatné části z nich tahle predikční schopnost “jakoby” selže. (Aniž by došlo k něčemu, co nikdo nečekal a co by bylo přímočarým vysvětlením – pád meteoritu). A to je to, co vysvětluje – že můžou být podvedeni a byli podvedeni. Respektive reagovali na falešný cenový signál. A to je daleko lepší vysvětlení, než jakékoliv jiné, které jsem do téhle doby slyšel.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:12

    “Sam tvrdite, ze zvysenie urokovej sadzby je faktor, s ktorym sa nedalo pocitat, ked si ludia vytvarali plany.”

    Kde něco takového tvrdím? Já jsem naopak zcela jasně tvrdil, že i kdyby s tím nakrásně počítali (nebo právě proto, že s tím počítali) tak jim to stejně není vůbec nic platné.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:19

    “Mimochodom, ABCT tiez nepopisuje preco sa cyklus prevrati a “bublina praskne”.”

    To mimochodem popisuje. Prostě se příjde na to, že projekty, které byly zahajené v době boomu, nemohou být ziskově dokončené.

    “Ked CB zdvihne od zajtra sadzby z 0% na 20%, tak nasledna kriza bola dosledkom chybnej struktury vyroby?”

    :-) tady by byla krize důsledkem toho, že by centrální banka udělala něco, s čím nikdo dopředu nepočítal. A to, jak rychle by odezněla, by záleželo na celkové pružnosti mezd a cen. Pokud bychom měli pružné ceny a mzdy a předchozí struktura výroby by byla v pořádku, tak by výsledná “krize” mohla být velmi krátká a velmi rychle překonaná.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:30

    “Nie. Friedman a Schwartzova si boli vedomi institucionalnych rozdielov. Obezivo nezahrna len zlato, ale aj ostatne bankovky. Vid. zdroj v clanku. Cize je tam chyba. Okrem toho ste zabudli na zlate mince, ci strieborne certifikaty, napr. tu:”

    To jste nepochopil, co jsem chtěl říct. Každá definice M-agregátů je v zásadě arbitrární definicí. Friedman, který navazoval na Fishera, bral jako “peněžní bázi” v podstatě všechny legal tender money. A třeba z určitého úhlu pohledu (například z úhlu pohledu empirické likvidity) to dává smysl, protože zákonné platidlo musí přijmout každý a tak je tím nejlikvidnějším aktivem v ekonomice.
    Ale z jiného úhlu pohledu dává zase smysl definovat si M-ka jinak. Například základní peníze by bylo to, co už není směnitelné za nic jiného. A ostatní peníze jsou nároky na tyhle základní peníze, které jsou směnitelné okamžitě nebo potom po nějaké době atd. A z tohohle úhlu pohledu prostě dává smysl dělat rozdíl mezi zlatem a bankovkami. A bankovky – byť by na nich bylo napsáno, že jsou legal tender – pak prostrě nepatří do oběživa. Jsou závazkem institucí vyplatit na požádání základní oběživo – zlato. Takže při zlatém standardu z tohohle logického úhlu pohledu potří do M0 jen zlato a do M1 pak všechny nároky na zlato splatné na požádání (depozita i bankovky i stříbrné a drobné měděné mince atd).

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 18:36

    Finist:

    ABCT tvrdi, ze jednou za zakladnych podnikatelskych schopnosti je schopnost predikovat buduci stav trhu a zaroven predpoklada, ze tito super podnikatelia sa opakovane nechaju podviest falosnym signalom od CB? Preco si preboha nenechaju rezervu, ked vedia, ze im dava banka falosny signal? Vsak to nedava ziaden zmysel.

    “A veškerá monetární politika je založená na tom, že CB v určitých situacích trh přečůrat může – může nějak vylepšit výsledky trhu oproti stavu, ve kterém by neexistovala.”

    Friedmanovsky pocitac je takmer idealny stav, ale ako vidite, pri zero lower bound by nam vela nebol platny. Ale nezavislost a predikovatelnost je dolezita.

    “Kdyby to byla taková brnkačka, tak tu nevznikají žádné cykly.”
    To, ze FED vie, kde je natural rate neznamena, ze by neboli ziadne cykly. Vsak to vobec nie je cielom jeho politiky. FED ma inak lepsie vysledky ako trh (alebo ako to nazvete) pred 1914: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

    Dalej ste napisali: “Teorie je potřeba na vysvětlení toho nahromadění podnikatelských chyb, které nemá žádnou takovouhle jednoznačně identifikovatelnou příčinu ve faktorech, se kterými lidi nemohli počítat, když si vytvářeli své plány.”

    Takze pocitaju s tym zvysenim sadzieb uz pri vytvarani svojich planov alebo nie?

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:39

    Ještě k tomuhle tématu peněžních agregátů -
    http://mises.org/books/valuemoney.pdf

    str. 154 a dál. Pro pohled měnových autorit v té době.

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 18:39

    Finist:
    Ano, definicia je arbitrarna, je uplne jedno, co tam date. INESS sa vyjadril, ze bolo natlacenych prilis vela penazi a ja som ukazal, ze nebolo, lebo baza zahrna nielen zlato ako ste mylne tvrdili.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:42

    Hlavně str. 167.

    M, money, consists of all the media of exchange in circulation which are generally acceptable,
    as distinguished from those which are acceptable under particular conditions, as by endorsement. M excludes money in bank reserves and government vaults. Money,
    specifically, includes gold and silver coin, minor coins, government paper money, and bank-notes; M’ consists of deposits transferable by check. This version would not satisfy such a writer as Nicholson,1 who would limit money to gold coin, and would include in M’ not only deposits, but also bank-notes, and other credit instruments. I may suggest here, what I shall later emphasize, that Fisher’s “money,” though he doubtless is using the most common definition of money, is really a pretty heterogeneous group of things, concerning which it is possible to make few general statements safely. In economic essence, e. g., bank-notes are much more like deposits than like gold, and if one wishes to separate money and credit, bank-notes belong with M’ rather than with M.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 18:47

    @Braňo

    INESS se vyjádřil, že bylo vytištěno příliš penězí relativně ke zlatu. To byste mohl vyvrátit tak, kdybyste vzal poměr – čistě jen množství zlata ku množství nároků na zlato (tzn bankovek + depozit na požádání, mezi čímž nebyl ekonomický rozdíl). A ukázal jim, jak se tenhle poměr nezměnil. (Což byste neukázal, protože ten se ve dvacátých letech hodně změnil).

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 18:54

    Jakub:

    “Tiez nemyslim ze mozes povedat co ma byt v danej chvili prirodzena urokova miera (to by museli podnikatelia vediet a brat to do uvahy aby bola validna namietka o ocakavaniach v ABCT).”

    Nerozumiem. Preco by to museli podnikatelia vediet?

    “V absencii takeho kartelu sa jedna banka, ktora ide s rezervnym pomerom prilis nizko vystavuje riziku odcerpania rezerv voci konzervativnejsim bankam (a riskuje neschopnost plnit zavazky).”

    Nuz vo svete to tak chodi, ze investicie su spojene s rizikom. O tom to je. Ak by sa banky nechceli vystavovat riziku, tak by sa nevystavili ani zisku. Banka sa predsa snazi odhadnut kolko cashu potrebuje a zvysok investuje.

    CB jej stanovuje PMR a nevidim dovod, preco by v pripade freebankingu naopak nesli banky este nizsie.

    “Pri monopolnej mene vznika tiez klasicky common pool problem, kedy jednotlive banky plne nenesu dosledky svojich rozhodnuti pri poskytovani uverov.”

    Preco by neniesli? Zavedenim vacerych mien a kurzov sa co zmeni?

    “Lender of last resort tento prirodzeny trzny limit na uverovu expanziu odstranuje.”

    Hm, cize staci zvysit PMR a podla rakusanov je po probleme? To tak spravme! :)

    A hovoril som samozrejme o zisku centralnych bank, nie komercnych.

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 18:58

    Finist:

    Vidim, ze rad argumentujete autoritou, i ked je to autorita iba v ramci rakuskej skoly :) Nechapem, co z toho textu plynie.

    “To byste mohl vyvrátit tak, kdybyste vzal poměr – čistě jen množství zlata ku množství nároků na zlato (tzn bankovek + depozit na požádání, mezi čímž nebyl ekonomický rozdíl).”

    Vsak presne to som v clanku ukazal.

  • Finist 05.02.2012 19:00

    “FED ma inak lepsie vysledky ako trh (alebo ako to nazvete) pred 1914:”

    FED má podle mého mínění daleko horší výsledky, než měl systém před rokem 1914. Viz tahle Selginova přednáška.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLynuQebyUM

    To, na co odkazujete, je prostě jen důkazem toho, že statistici neumějí počítat s čísly z 19. století (nebo je chybně interpretují). Tehdejší cykly vůbec nebyly tak vážné, jak to z té tabulky vypadá.

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 20:46

    Nuz mozno je to tak, ze ten chlapik, co ukazuje v tom videu grafy nezamestnanosti bez zdroja, si jednoducho len vymysla ;-)

    Tu prikladam porovnanie nezamestnanosti. Vpravo je graf z videa (chlapik sa nezmohol na viac ako “based on available data”), vlavo oficialne udaje:
    http://i40.tinypic.com/9lapo4.jpg

  • Finist 05.02.2012 20:51

    “Vsak presne to som v clanku ukazal.”

    Jo, trochu špatně sem se vyjádřil. Procentní poměr v článku je, ale ty čísla ukazují i tohle (když si srovnáme množství zlatých dolarů a množství dolarových nároků splatných na požádání):

    V roce 1920
    M1: 23,73 miliard dolarů – zlato 2,6 miliard = 21,13 miliard nekrytých dolarů v oběhu

    V roce 1929
    M1: 26,54 miliard dolarů – zlato 4 miliardy = 22,54 miliard nekrytých dolarů v oběhu.

    Takže v M1 bylo o 1,41 miliardy nekrytých dolarů v oběhu víc oproti roku 1920. (Pochopitelně by to bylo ještě víc, kdybysme to srovnali s rokem 1921)

    Karpiš mohl mít klidně na mysli tohle absolutní srovnání a měl by pak pravdu.

  • Jakub 05.02.2012 22:01

    “Nerozumiem. Preco by to museli podnikatelia vediet?”

    Lebo to je miera ktora koordinuje investicie a uspory. Inak vznikaju imbalances.

    “Nuz vo svete to tak chodi, ze investicie su spojene s rizikom. O tom to je. Ak by sa banky nechceli vystavovat riziku, tak by sa nevystavili ani zisku. Banka sa predsa snazi odhadnut kolko cashu potrebuje a zvysok investuje.”

    Ako vravis, tak to vo svete chodi. Ale c dosledku existencie CB je to do znacnej miery potlacene. To ma nasledky v podobe rozsahu uverovej expanzie.

    “CB jej stanovuje PMR a nevidim dovod, preco by v pripade freebankingu naopak nesli banky este nizsie.”

    Ja chapem zalozenie CB ako vysledok snahy bank synchronne stlacit PMR cim nizsie. Pokial by neexistoval REPO trh kde CB berie do zalohy aktiva (hlavne statne dlhopisy), riziko straty likvidity by bolo ovela vacsie. Dalej aj riziko straty rezerv voci konzervativnejsim bankam (absencia uniformnej rezervnej politiky, aspon teda jej lower bound). To su dobre dovody ocakavat ze PMR by nizsie neslo.

    Preco by neniesli? Zavedenim vacerych mien a kurzov sa co zmeni?

    Vysvetlim zhrnutim jedneho papera na tuto temu:

    “Hm, cize staci zvysit PMR a podla rakusanov je po probleme? To tak spravme!”

    Na tom neni zhoda. Ja sa klonim k nazoru ze staci odstranit legislativne opatrenia ktore bankam umoznuju expandovat nad uroven ktora by fungovala na volnom trhu s loanable funds.
    “Carilli and Dempster (2001) build up their prisoner’s dilemma argument by comparing the
    hypothetical system of free banking with the system of the banking sector cartelized under the central bank coupled with monopolized currency issue. The difference that is relevant for the discussion is a common pool problem that arises from monopoly currency. When banks issue their own money (or money certificates such as cheques, demand deposits etc.), they can differentiate from other banks by their policy regarding the issue; they can appeal to clients by
    being more conservative (keeping higher reserve ratio), and can decide on compatibility with other banks (transacting other bank’s money with their own clients’ accounts) based on
    trustworthiness of other banks’ issue policies. Thus, each bank bears consequences of their
    policy, and there is a competition among banks.”

  • Jakub 05.02.2012 22:03

    Ach. Nechapem ako, ale moj komentar ma pomiesane poradie.

    toto ma byt na konci, nie v strede:
    —————————
    “Hm, cize staci zvysit PMR a podla rakusanov je po probleme? To tak spravme!”

    Na tom neni zhoda. Ja sa klonim k nazoru ze staci odstranit legislativne opatrenia ktore bankam umoznuju expandovat nad uroven ktora by fungovala na volnom trhu s loanable funds.
    ——————–

    ak je tu nejaky admin prosim o opravu…vdaka!

  • Braňo 05.02.2012 22:53

    “Lebo to je miera ktora koordinuje investicie a uspory. Inak vznikaju imbalances.”

    Spytam sa inak. Ako funguje ten mechanizmus, lebo z tohto mudrejsi nie som.

    Ja chapem zalozenie CB ako dlhu evoluciu. Aj vo freebankingu maju banky tendenciu pozicat co najviac penazi, pretoze to je jedina vec, z ktorej profituju. Kazdy cent rezerv navyse je pre nich obrovsky (oportunitny) naklad, cize cela optimizacia sa sustredi na minimalizaciu rezerv, aby klienti vkladali co najviac a naopak vyberali co najmenej fyzickych penazi: spoplatnene vybery, nahlasovanie vyberu cashu vopred, zvyhodnene platby kartou, internetom, atd..

    REPO trh nie je podstatny, banky by sa poistili proti idiosynkratickym sokom na likviditu navzajom.

    Aby sa konzervativnejsie banky (tie s vyssimi rezervami) udrzali na konkurencnom trhu, tak by museli ist do ovela riskantnejsich projektov s vyssim vynosom. Ako som pisal vyssie – rezervy su velky naklad.

    Nevidim to proste ruzovo. Nehovoriac o agregatnom soku, ci panike. Vtedy idu dolu vodou vsetci, avsak kazdy caka, ze peniaze zacne tlacit najprv ten druhy.

    Aj dnes sa mozu banky diferencovat, nie je ziadny problem. Resp. stat ich este nedavno diferencoval na investicne a retailove ;-)

  • Dezmar 06.02.2012 10:38

    Som rad, ze k diskusii sa pripojili argumentacne podkutejsi diskuteri ako ja. Preto si len dovolim rypnutie z trocha ineho smeru. Tento web (jetotak) sa pomerne jasne hlasi k smeru, hovoriacemu o hnusnom neoliberalizme, spiknuti bankstrov, financnych spekulantoch drviacich pracujuci lud, zidovskej klike zatinajucej svoje krvave zuby do robotnika a pod (mozno nie tak explicitne ako ine, ale predsa :) .
    A zrazu tu mame etericku Banku, ktora nie je napojena na financnikov, nepodlieha politickemu cyklu, jendoducho je plna ludi so svetoziarou, ktori nezneuzivaju moc, ani sa nenechaju skorumpovat, ale v potu tvare kazdy den bojuju v prospech pracujuceho cloveka, vsetko podla pravidiel. Mne to pride divne :)

  • krija 06.02.2012 19:12

    pozeram, ze to tu treba rozcisnout ako sa hovori :)

    http://moje.hnonline.sk/node/1128

    a ak ste pochopili toto, tak nebude problem snad ani nieco o deflacii:

    http://krija.wordpress.com/2010/12/19/deflacia-a-system-emisie-penazi/

    a ku menovym agregatom:

    uctovne peniaze vytvorene komercnymi bankami a obcas aj centralnou bankou je mozno si po pripisani v banke na ucet vymenit za obezivo, ale zaroven nema zmysel v tom rozlisovat, lebo vsetky peniaze vznikaju ako uctovne peniaze.

    viac tu:

    http://krija.blog.pravda.sk/2011/10/23/o-kapitalizme-s-laskou/

  • krija 06.02.2012 19:17

    http://moje.hnonline.sk/node/1128

    http://krija.wordpress.com/2010/12/19/deflacia-a-system-emisie-penazi/

    http://krija.blog.pravda.sk/2011/10/23/o-kapitalizme-s-laskou/

  • Jakub 06.02.2012 19:20

    No a? Konspiracie nejach inym. Prezumpcia dobrych umyslov ideoveho oponenta je jedina cesta k normalnej debate.

  • krija 06.02.2012 19:20

    http://moje.hnonline.sk/node/1128

    http://krija.wordpress.com/2010/12/19/deflacia-a-system-emisie-penazi/

    http://krija.blog.pravda.sk/2011/10/23/o-kapitalizme-s-laskou/

    btw nejako vam to tu hapruje. toto je moj treti prispevok, ktory sa pokusam odoslat a nie je tu. hlavne, ze to detekuje zdvojeny prispevok.

  • kri 06.02.2012 19:27

    to je moja mailova adresa na blackliste, alebo co? toto je stvrty pokus sem niecim prispiet a poslednym zaroven. detekcia zdvojenych prispevkov vam funguje dokonale, lenze ja tu ani jeden moj nevidim.
    .
    http://moje.hnonline.sk/node/1128
    .
    http://krija.wordpress.com/2010/12/19/deflacia-a-system-emisie-penazi/
    .
    http://krija.blog.pravda.sk/2011/10/23/o-kapitalizme-s-laskou/
    .

  • krija 06.02.2012 19:35

    http://moje.hnonline.sk/node/1128

  • kri 06.02.2012 19:36

    http://moje.hnonline.sk/node/1128

  • Jakub 06.02.2012 19:39

    *nechaj :P

  • I. Lesay 07.02.2012 8:34

    ospravedlnujem sa… system asi zachytil viacero linkov v komentari, vyhodnotil to ako spam, a preto Vas zaradil na schvalenie. az teraz som sa k tomu dostal. il

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