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Branislav Žúdel: Milton Friedman ako advokát hyperinflácie

Ekonomický ping-pong medzi rakúskou školou a mainstreamom pokračuje. Juraj Karpiš z INESSu predniesol svoj pohľad na hospodárske cykly. Ten však stojí na hlinených nohách. V nasledujúcich riadkoch ukážem, že niektorým predpokladom rakúskej teórie hospodárskeho cyklu (ďalej ABCT) neverí dokonca ani on sám. Je pritom otázne, či samotná ABCT predikuje vôbec nejaké cykly. Ak by som si však mohol vybrať, čo si ľudia môžu z môjho článku odniesť, tak by to bolo jediné: Ceny sú v krátkom horizonte nemenné, a preto aj v tej najrakúskejšej ekonomike budú existovať cykly.

Ľudia nie sú hlúpi, len keď sa nám to hodí

Juraj Karpiš na začiatku svojho článku vraj prekonal nutkanie odpovedať na kľúčovú výhradu o naivných očakávaniach ľudí, ktoré predpokladá ABCT protiotázkou: „Aká je teda tá pravá, trhová úroková miera, s ktorou mám počítať v mojich plánoch?“

Nuž takáto protiotázka by sa minula účinku, keďže „pravú“ úrokovú mieru vôbec poznať nemusíte. Podstatné je, prečo ABCT predpokladá, že ľudia vždy opakovane nepoučiteľne a systematicky úrokovú mieru vo svojich projektoch podhodnocujú.

Nikto predsa nepotrebuje trafiť sadzbu centrálnej banky úplne presne, aby jeho projekt neskrachoval. Investori nemusia mať perfektné racionálne očakávania, nemusia ani nič tušiť o ABCT, nemusia byť ekonómovia a dokonca nemusia byť ani žiadni inteligenti. Ak by napr. počítali pri 10-ročnom projekte s diskontnou sadzbou rovnajúcou sa 10-ročnému priemeru úrokovej sadzby centrálnej banky, tak by ich projekty nemohli v dôsledku neskoršieho zvýšenia sadzieb skrachovať. Ľudia vraj ani toto nedokážu a vždy počítajú len s aktuálnou sadzbou.

Ak si však myslíte, že Juraj Karpiš má ľudí za hlupákov, tak to sa veľmi mýlite. Naopak, tvrdí nasledovné: Ľudia nie sú úplne hlúpi. Najmä podnikatelia vedia, že dnešné obrovské deficity bude treba raz zaplatiť a preto kalkulujú s tým, že deficity de facto predstavujú  zajtrajšie vysoké dane. Preto podnikatelia dnes menej investujú (a ľudia menej spotrebovávajú), čo pôsobí proti ekonomickému rastu“ (bold v origináli).

Nuž nie je to zaujímavé? Na jednej strane ľudia kalkulujú opakovane s príliš nízkou diskontnou sadzbou, lebo vraj netušia, že ju centrálna banka neskôr zvýši, i keď to predtým už x-krát urobila. A na strane druhej ľudia vedia presne predpovedať, kedy im vláda kvôli deficitom zvýši dane, čomu prispôsobia svoje súčasné plány? Pri daniach to ide a pri úrokoch zrazu nie?

Môže byť takto flagrantne nekonzistentný postoj podložený niečim iným ako len ideológiou? V rámci férovosti však treba uviesť, že niektorí priaznivci ABCT priznávajú kritické nedostatky pôvodnej ABCT a snažia sa o jej modifikáciu.

Prečo sa americká ekonomika nezrútila po 2. svetovej vojne v dôsledku „zlých investícií“?

V reakcii na môj článok bolo uvedených niekoľko tvrdení, s ktorými ťažko súhlasiť.

Prvým z radu pochybení je argument, že ekonómia aproximuje trhy ako dokonale konkurenčné. Väčšina literatúry skúmajúcej monetárnu ekonómiu však aproximuje trhy nie ako dokonale konkurenčné, ale ako monopolisticky konkurenčné (a to tak trh tovarov ako aj trh práce). Aj z tohto dôvodu je článok o monopolistickej konkurencii v podaní Dixita a Stiglitza z roku 1977 jedným z najcitovanejších článkov v oblasti ekonómie vôbec.

Druhá vec je príklad s hypotekárnym agentom, ktorý síce vie, že pre klienta je nevýhodné zobrať si úver, ale agent je vraj pod tlakom konkurencie a preto využije „lacné peniaze“ od centrálnej banky. V tomto bode treba pripomenúť, že na uzavretie dohody o úvere treba dve strany. Každý predajca sa snaží predať za vyššiu cenu, ale najprv s tým musí súhlasiť aj kupujúci.

Tretia výhrada sa vzťahuje k príkladu s lacnou pšenicou, v ktorom štát monopolizuje jej produkciu a stanový príliš nízku cenu pšenice, čoho dôsledkom je množstvo „zlých“ investícií na ňu naviazaných. V takejto ekonomike by bolo veľa krátkodobých investícií do pšeničného priemyslu, avšak žiaden súdny podnikateľ by nezačal stavať gigantickú elektráreň na pšenicu vediac, že zajtra sa lacná pšenica minie.

Navyše, celkový agregátny výkon ekonomiky by sa v tomto príklade nezvýšil, len by sa pšeničný sektor rozrástol na úkor napr. kukuričného sektora a po skončení regulácie zase naopak. Takto prezentovaná ABCT je nekonzistentná. Nepopisuje agregátne zmeny vo výkone ekonomiky, či nezamestnanosti, ale len sektorálne zmeny, čo určite nie je dobrým popisom hospodárskeho cyklu.

Hypotézy Juraj Karpiša by napr. predikovali, že najhlbšia a najrozsiahlejšia depresia mala nastať takmer po celom svete po skončení druhej svetovej vojny, keď mali byť zlikvidované všetky „zlé investície“ naviazané na boom vojenského priemyslu, ktoré boli vytvorené v rámci štátom regulovanej dotovanej a zdeformovanej produkčnej štruktúry nepoužiteľnej v mierových časoch.

Navyše treba zdôrazniť, že predikovať budúce vojenské výdavky a dátum konca vojny je pre ľudí asi ďaleko náročnejšie ako predikovať zvýšenie úrokových sadzieb centrálnou bankou. Tento prirodzený experiment napr. v USA ukázal, že aj keď je predikcia budúcich podnikateľských podmienok náročnejšia a produkčná štruktúra ekonomiky enormne zdeformovaná (teda aspoň v poňatí rakúskych ekonómov), tak ekonomika po „prasknutí bubliny“ neupadá do depresie a naopak zmenu štruktúry zvláda s nezamestnanosťou pod 5 %.

„Umelo nízke úroky“ nie sú ani umelé ani nízke

Veľmi často sa v argumentácii prívržencov ABCT vyskytuje floskula, že investície v dôsledku monetárnej expanzie sú nutne zlé, lebo vznikli v dôsledku „umelo nízkych úrokov“. Takáto argumentácia je však len výsledkom nepochopenia monetárnej ekonómie a faktov.

Ak by aj existovala na peňažnom trhu ideálna konkurencia pokojne aj so 100-percentnými frakčnými rezervami, tak tento stav nijako nezabráni cyklickému prepadu produkcie (a vytváraniu nezamestnanosti). Fundamentálnou príčinou poklesu výkonu ekonomiky počas krízy je totiž neschopnosť trhu rýchlo prispôsobovať ceny (a mzdy) prichádzajúcim šokom.

Ako som písal už v prechádzajúcom blogu, ceny sú v krátkom horizonte rigidné, čiže nezareagujú napr. na zmeny v dopyte na peňažnom trhu okamžite a miesto toho sa prispôsobuje reálna produkcia. Rigidnosť cien však nie je dôsledkom existencie zlého štátu, ale je to jednoducho vlastnosť (voľného) trhu. Preto by v krátkom horizonte reálna úroková miera na voľnom trhu nezodpovedala prirodzenej úrokovej miere, teda úrokovej miere na hypotetickom trhu s úplne flexibilnými cenami.

Centrálna banka počas krízy neznižuje nominálnu sadzbu na nejakú umelo nízku úroveň, ale naopak ju znižuje smerom k prirodzenej reálnej úrokovej miere, ktorá počas krízy, v dôsledku poklesu výkonu ekonomiky a otvárania produkčnej medzery, klesá. Juraj Karpiš teda nemá pravdu ak tvrdí, že počas recesie by mali byť úrokové sadzby vyššie. Na voľnom trhu by síce vyššie boli, ale nemali by byť. Ak by boli, tak by výsledkom bol len prehĺbený cyklus.

Z vyššie uvedeného tiež plynie, že aj nulová nominálna úroková miera môže znamenať reštriktívnu menovú politiku. Pamatal na to aj Milton Friedman, ktorý v roku 2000 odporúčal pre Japonsko s nulovými úrokovými sadzbami a defláciou nasledujúcu liečbu: „It’s very simple. They can buy long-term government securities, and they can keep buying them and providing high-powered money until the high-powered money starts getting the economy in an expansion. What Japan needs is a more expansive domestic monetary policy.“

Žeby samotný Friedman zabudol na hyperinfláciu? Alebo si bol naopak vedomý, že ceny sú rigidné, takže najprv príde k hospodárskemu oživeniu?

Zmeny v dopyte po peniazoch, tak ako ich približne indikuje zmena rýchlosti peňazí v obehu, sú nezanedbateľne veľké. Z tohto dôvodu sa pred desiatkami rokov nápady americkej centrálnej banky cieľovať ponuku peňazí (vtedy propagovanú paradoxne Friedmanom) a ignorovať zmeny v dopyte po peniazoch nestretli s úspechom. Je preto trochu záhadou, že Juraja Karpiša tak fascinuje v súčasnosti cieľovanie stabilnej peňažnej zásoby.

Takisto je záhadou, prečo analytik INESSu ukazuje obrázok mobilného telefónu ako príklad deflácie, keď už v predchádzajúcom článku bolo vysvetlené, že ekonómovia nemajú nič proti deflácii spôsobenej rastom ponuky (napr. technologickým pokrokom). Opakovane sa však treba zamyslieť, či bola nedávna deflácia spôsobená technologickým pokrokom alebo skôr poklesom dopytu.

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Komentáre (1 142)

  • pk 21.02.2012 13:31

    hm, deflácia je asi problém vždy, bez ohľadu na príčinu, ale s ohľadom na následky, keďže dlhy sa splácajú v nominálnych cenách a nepodliehajú deflácii, teda s výnimkou konkurzného konania… nie ? takisto nedefluje cena práce, keďže zmluvy majú pevne stanovenú mzdu atď…

  • tutulimutuli 21.02.2012 16:59

    Autor pise: “[ABC] [n]epopisuje agregátne zmeny vo výkone ekonomiky, či nezamestnanosti, ale len sektorálne zmeny, čo určite nie je dobrým popisom hospodárskeho cyklu.”
    .
    Tvrdim, ze ABC je irelevantny a nie iba, ako autor tvrdi, “nie dobra” teoria cyklu z pohladu (vedeckeho) pristupu k ekonomii. Preco?
    .
    Pomozem si analogiou. Som vedec. Venujeme sa studiu antropologickej biologie. Jedneho dna pride za mnou pan XY a povie mi o existencii Yetiho v Tatrach. Samozrejme vyskocim zo stolicky a zacnem (jacat a nekoordinovane hybat svojimi rukami od radosti) sa pytat. Nasleduje zaplava otazok. Pocas rozhovoru vyjde najavo, ze pan XY fotograficky dokaz o Yetiho zivote nema. Nema ho, pretoze neveri na objektivne zbieranie dokazov o prirode pomocou napr. fotoaparatu. Napriek tomu verejnosti opakovane tvrdi co vsetko vie a co vsetko sa dozvedel studiom Yetiho o antropologickom vyvoji cloveka. To vsetko z kresla domova pana XY. A ako som na tom ja?

    Ak by som aj Yetiho nasiel a odfotil pan XY uz nahuckal verejnosti, ze Yetiho existenciu nemozno skumat empirickou procedurou zachytavania jeho obrazu na fotograficky papier pomocou fotoaparatu. Yetiho mozeme skumat iba nepriamo z pohodlia stolicky (pana XY). Aj keby som sa “dal” na Yetiho pan XY po case bude tvrdit, ze i ked som sa venoval vyskumu Yetiho moj zaver je irelevantny. Moj vyskum je irelevantny. A nie len to. Vsetok vyskum mojich kolegov, ktori studuju vyvoja cloveka je irelevantny. Preco? Pretoze necerpa z jedineho pravdiveho vyskumu Yetiho, jeho vyskumu.

    ABC je ako Yeti. Yeti, ktoreho nikto a nikdy (preukazatelne) nevidel, ale vsetci mame v neho verit. Teda verit panovi XY a tomu co vyprodukuje. Verit, ze Yeti je klucom k poznaniu antropologickeho vyvoja cloveka. A ked predsa len Yetiho niekedy niekto odfoti pan XY bude tvrdit, ze Yetiho nemozno studovat podla empirickych procedur akou je Yetiho fotografovanie v jeho prirodzenom habitate. A uz vobec nieto spravnou procedurou akou sa dozvediet nieco o antropologickej biologii.

    Kde je ta povestna siet?

    PS: Zem uz davno nie je doska. A ani nou nikdy nebola.

  • abstraktt 21.02.2012 17:37

    braňo, vďaka ti za takéto články, konečne môžem známym, ktorí si spravili z karpiša kult, ukázať, že to nie je celkom tak ako on prezentuje.

  • pk 21.02.2012 17:42

    zabudol som pochváliť, článok je výborný

  • Braňo 21.02.2012 18:24

    pk – Pokial investor ocakava deflaciu, ale neocakava tech. pokrok, tak sa mu investicia predrazuje, to je fakt. Ale to hovorime o deflacnych ocakavaniach, nie o deflacii ako takej.
    -
    tutulimutili – ano, ABCT mozno vycitat vela veci. Ja som len reagoval na slova J. Karpisa, ktory napisal, ze: “to mi príde ako pomerne dobrý popis dnešnej situácie”. Preto som pouzil podobny slovnik.
    -
    abstraktt – nz. V postkomunistickych statoch maju ludia paradoxne lepsie nastudovanu rakusku skolu ako zaklady mainstreamu.

  • s 21.02.2012 19:57

    “Prečo sa americká ekonomika nezrútila po 2. svetovej vojne v dôsledku „zlých investícií“?”

    Akosi nevidim rozpor s Karpisovymi tvrdeniami. Zle investicie vo vojne sa totizto uplne odpisu. Neostane po nich tovar, ktory zaplavi trh ani klateral a nesposobi deflaciu a kolaps dlhovej bubliny tak ako napr. pri real estate vytvaranom na dlh. Vojnova vyroba nevytvara a nerozmnozuje dlhovy kolateral. Co sa po vojne prave stane je, ze v obehu je mnozstvo penazi vytvorenych dlhom, ale tovaru malo, co vytvori prirodzeny dopyt a zvysenie vyroby. Zadlzeny je stat, ktory si moze peniaze dokonca natlacit na rozdiel od zadlzenych vlastnikov real estate, ktori si musia peniaze zarobit.

  • skeptik 21.02.2012 19:59

    “Prečo sa americká ekonomika nezrútila po 2. svetovej vojne v dôsledku „zlých investícií“?”

    Akosi nevidim rozpor s Karpisovymi tvrdeniami. Zle investicie vo vojne sa totizto uplne odpisu. Neostane po nich tovar, ktory zaplavi trh ani klateral a nesposobi deflaciu a kolaps dlhovej bubliny tak ako napr. pri real estate vytvaranom na dlh. Vojnova vyroba nevytvara a nerozmnozuje dlhovy kolateral. Co sa po vojne prave stane je, ze v obehu je mnozstvo penazi vytvorenych dlhom, ale tovaru malo, co vytvori prirodzeny dopyt a zvysenie vyroby. Zadlzeny je stat, ktory si moze peniaze dokonca natlacit na rozdiel od zadlzenych vlastnikov real estate, ktori si musia peniaze zarobit.
    Ak niekto nieco stale nechape, tak prave autor.

  • tutulimutuli 21.02.2012 23:27

    “Prečo sa americká ekonomika nezrútila po 2. svetovej vojne v dôsledku „zlých investícií“?”

    No pretoze to tvrdili keynesianci, rakusania a komunisti. Vsetko pablbovedecke smery v oblasti ekonomie.

    Roziahlejsi elaborat preco sa tak nestalo si najdete v kniznici NATO napr. v Bratislave. Material k nastoleniu rozporu s uvedenymi hlupostami sa dozviete napr. z kniziek MWG Microeconomics, SLP Dynamic Economics for Macroeconomists. Bezne citanie je od F. A Monetary History of US.

  • nazor laika 22.02.2012 7:22

    Prepacte, ale mne ako laikovi to pripada tak, akokeby sa hluchy so slepym vadili, kto vnima svet lepsie.
    Vidim, ze aj na poli ekonomickych vied su utvorene zamerne duopolne smery, z ktorych ani jeden nevie presne opisat chod ekonomiky. Lebo cista ekonomika neexistuje. Stale je ovplyvnovana ludmi a tym padom sa ziadne presne matematicke opisy nedaju urobit.
    Takto sa mozte natahovat aj tisic rokov a sprepacenim hovno vymyslite, kym si nepripustite fakt, ze zopar vplyvnych ludi sa hra so svetom ako v sachovej hre.
    Deje sa tak na globalnej aj na lokalnej urovni. Jednoducho vsade je trh zdeformovany v posratej dedine v hornej dolnej aj v junajtid stejts of amerika a bude to tak vzdy.
    Vyznancovia roznych ekonomickych smerov sa mozu ukajat vo svojej pravde a nadavat na druhu stranu mince az do zblnutia. Aj tak nikdy nevymyslite teoriu, ktora sadne na ekonomicky svet ako rit na serbel.

  • guest 22.02.2012 10:35

    Naozaj pekný článok. Karpiš je jedným z tých rýchlokvasených vševedkov so schopnosťou plynule a dlho tárať, čo vyznieva v televízii veľmi učene a presvedčivo. Keď niečo hodí na papier, ukážu sa jeho veľké vedomostné deficity a nekonzistentnosť výkladu. Autor ho presvedčivo demaskuje. Patrí medzi znaky tejto doby, že Karpiš sa pretŕča na verejnosti pomaly každý deň, čím sa jeho povesť experta na všetko systematicky upevňuje, zatiaľ čo o Braňovi vie málokto.

  • juraj t 22.02.2012 22:29

    Ad guest: Ak je Karpiš nekonzistentný, tak prečo na to autor článku ani raz nepoukázal. Namiesto toho Branislav predviedol, ako vôbec nerozumie rakúskej ekonomickej škole a venoval sa nezmyselným tvrdeniam ako to o údajne pre rakušanov prekvapujúcej konjuktúre po vojne.

    Možno by nezaškodilo začítať sa do Ropkeho (nie čistý rakušan ale na rakúskej škole odchovaný a z veľkej miery na nej stavajúci povojnový nemecký hospodársky zázrak) či Erhardta, ktorý tie myšlienky napriek zúrivému odporu ľavičiarov realizoval. Poctivá mena a čo najviac deregulovaný (čítaj slobodný) trh. Dokonca proti vôli amerických okupačných úradov, ktoré boli stále pod vplyvom zhubných myšlienok New Dealu a snažili sa ten socialistický nezmysel presadiť. To postavilo zbedačené Nemecko a popri ňom aj zvyšok slobodnej Európy na nohy. V takom krátkom čase, že sa to považovalo za zázrak. Spočíval iba v tom, že sa v Európe zatiaľ naposledy presadili myšlienky ekonomického liberalizmu.

    Keby Branislav čosi vedel o rakúskej škole, tak by sa dozvedel, že centrom ekonomiky je neustále hľadajúci, skúšajúci a často sa myliaci podnikateľ. Ekonomika nie je čierna skrinka, ku ktorej ekonóm hľadá tie správne vstupy, aby dostal želané výstupy. Ekonomika sme my všetci s našimi predstavami a obmedzenými možnosťami. To nikto neureguluje. Nedá sa to. Všetky doterajšie pokusy od Stalina po Prodiho či Barosa zlyhali.

    Kríza neprichádza z nebies podľa Branislava v podobe ním nevysvetlených šokov. Kríza je dôsledok narušenej koordinácie. Ktorú narušili umelé zásahy napríklad do cenotvorby. Úrok stanovený centrálnou bankou je iba jeden z pokusov regulovať cenu. To nikdy nemôže dopadnúť dobre bez ohľadu na to, či je to cena obilia alebo úveru. Stráca sa základný signál ekonomiky – trhová cena, kedysi poeticky (lebo ani encyklopedisti ani Adam Smith nepoznali podstatu tej “ruky”) nazývaná “neviditeľná ruka trhu”.

    A tak prichádzajú dôsledky. Zrazu sa mýli oveľa viac podnikateľov ako je bežné. Začne to napríklad v sektore stavebníctva, kde sa všetci vrhnú na nakupovanie domov, lebo veď ich ceny budú rásť večne. No nekúp to, keď ťa banky na kolenách prosia, aby si si požičal. Úrok je smiešny, štátne agentúry ručia bankám za pôžičku, tak by bolo hriechom nevyužiť možnosť zbohatnúť.

    Koľkí tomu naleteli, že? Klasická úverová expanzia, matka všetkých kríz. Rakušania už vtedy upozorňovali, že je to klasická bublina, ktorá skončí krachom. Boli na smiech. Ale nakoniec to tak dopadlo, lebo inak ani nemohlo. Neslobodno zabúdať, že hypotekárna bublina mala dôsledky aj v iných častiach ekonomiky. Nové domčeky, to sú aj nové cesty, nákupné centrá, stavebný materiál a všetko možné. Rozvrátilo to veľkú časť ekonomiky.

    Oplatí sa toho Karpiša čítať a počúvať. Netvrdím, že je neomylný (to nie je nikto), ale vie, čo hovorí a má to podložené. Čas už preveril aj jeho predpovede.

  • Braňo 23.02.2012 13:57

    Ad juraj t:
    Priklad s druhou svetovou vojnou je analogicky ku Karpisovym tvrdeniam o psenici. Ak sa vam nezda, tak napiste releventne preco, pripadne napiste, co na to hovori Ropke. Ked ocistim balast, tak z vasho prispevku ostane relevantny komentar len o tych nevysvetlenych sokoch.

    V prvom rade treba povedat, ze rakuska skola tiez nijako nevysvetluje sok v podobe prasknutia bubliny. Proste bublina praskne – lebo medved. To by bolo v poriadku, ved preto je to sok. Potom vsak pridu frazy o strukture, zakladnych signaloch a pod, co uz v poriadku ale nie je, pretoze nic nevysvetluju. V clanku som napisal, preco umelo nizke uroky nie su umele ani nizke. Cize poprosim kritiku.

    Druha vec je, ze soky sa nedaju systematicky predvidat. Fyzik vam nepovie, kedy presne nastane zemetrasenie. Ani ekonom vam nepovie presne, kedy ludia zacnu napr. hromadit likviditu. Vie dat iba podmienenu predpoved, ze napr. ak ludia zacnu dopytovat viac penazi a ponuka penazi sa v ekonomike simultanne nezvysi, tak pride kriza.

    Cistali ste moj clanok? Rakusania nie su na smiech, pretoze hovorili o bubline v stavebnictve. Rakusania su na smiech, pretoze stavaju na nezmyselnych predpokladoch a pretoze ich teoria nevysvetluje ako nejake prasknutie bubliny vedie k poklesu agregatneho vykonu ekonomiky. Rakusania tiez nijako nevedia vysvetlit preco prasknutie bubliny v stavebnictve v USA na zaciatku 2006 nevyvolalo krizu, a ze preco recesia prisla az o vyse dva roky neskor.

    Rakusania takisto nevedia vysvetlit, preco sa napr. Australcania nepomylili, i ked zazili rovnako velku bublinu v stavebnictve ako napr. Spanieli. Tento a dalsie priklady “nezlikvidovanych investicii” zostanu nimi zial ignorovane, i ked empiricky vyvracaju ich teoriu.

    A cim ma rakuska ekonomia, odmietajuca empiriu, podlozene svoje tvrdenia? Axiomatickymi pravdami?

  • Braňo 23.02.2012 14:19

    A este jeden komentar k myleniu sa. Racionalne ocakavania neznamenaju, ze ludia sa nemylia. Oni sa mylia: raz prestrelia inokedy podstrelia. Ale v priemere je chyba nulova.

    Ked centralna banka zvysi ponuku penazi a znizi sadzby, tak je uplne v poriadku, ze ludia zareaguju vyssim dopytovanim. Ved preto funguje monetarna politika. Toto nie je ziadne oklamanie ani vysielanie falosnych signalov a nijako to nepodporuje ABCT. ABCT totiz predpoklada, ze ludia vzdy mylne pocitaju s nizkou sadzbou do nekonecnej buducnosti a zle si spocitaju naklady dlhdobych projektov.

  • juraj t 23.02.2012 20:17

    Viete v čom vidia rakušania falošné signály? Skúsim to napísať pohľadom laika, čo sa už pár rokov vŕta v Misesovi a jemu podobných autoroch.

    V tom, že trhový úrok je cena, ktorá smeruje do rovnováhy (ako každá iná cena) ponuku úverov s dopytom po nich. Viac reálnych úspor znamená nižšiu úrokovú mieru a viac úverov. Menej reálnych úspor ju dvíha a brzdí úvery.

    Podstatou pre rakušanov je totiž reálna ekonomika. Tá, kde si ľudia navzájom vymieňajú reálne ekonomické statky. Tie, ktoré sú obmedzené a nútia nás celý život voliť si jedny na úkor iných. Presne tak ako to onehdy popísal Say. Peniaze sú iba prostriedok, ktorý tú výmenu uľahčuje a umožňuje podnikateľom viesť účtovníctvo.

    Nebezpečná situácia vzniká vo chvíli, keď ktosi začne s peniazmi manipulovať. Meniť ich množstvo napríklad úverovou expanziou. V tom hrá centrálna banka dôležitú úlohu. Ceny, ktoré za “normálnych” okolností iba číselne vyjadrujú pomer, v akom sa statky na trhu zvyknú navzájom vymieňať, sa začnú deformovať. Podľa toho, kam tie nové peniaze smerujú. To je ten zlý signál, o ktorom je reč. Ľudia sa riadia v ekonomike cenami. Úroková miera je len jedna z nich ale s veľkým dopadom. Taká deformácia zvyčajne neostane bez následkov.

    Ja by som axiomy v ekonómii nepodceňoval. V takom zložitom a zle predvídateľnom prostredí sú nenahraditeľné. Umožňujú predvídať smer, ktorým sa ekonomika uberá a umožňujú vysvetliť, čo sa v nej deje.

    Ohľadne príčin kríz ma celkom zaujala kniha Wilhelma Röpkeho Crises and Cycles. (http://mises.org/document/3122) Aj pre laika čitateľný pohľad na rôzne názory o ich podstate. Ako som spomínal, bol to jeden z ideológov hospodárskeho zázraku v Nemecku, tak si myslím, že tomu iste trochu rozumel.

  • Braňo 24.02.2012 12:44

    Ja mam teraz pocit, ze ten moj clanok bol trochu zbytocny.

    1. na super volnom trhu nikdy nebude ta prava Wicksellova prirodzena realna urokova miera, pretoze ceny su rigidne.

    2. “Peniaze sú iba prostriedok, ktorý tú výmenu uľahčuje a umožňuje podnikateľom viesť účtovníctvo.”

    Omyl. Ludia v realite dopytuju aj samotne peniaze, co dviha nominalne sadzby a kedze ceny su rigidne, tak sa dviha aj realna sadzba a dochadza k recesii.

    3. “Deformacia” nenastava pri uverovej expanzii, ale pri odchylke realnej sadzby na trhu od prirodzenej realnej sadzby.

    4. Ano, ludia pri nizsej realnej urokovej miere dopytuju viac penazi a tato deformacia nezostava bez nasledkov – ekonomika sa dviha z recesie, monetarna politika funguje.

    Toto ale v ziadnom pripade neznamena, ze tieto investicie budu v buducnosti automaticky znicene, pretoze vznikli pod nejakym falosnym signalom, a ze sa ludia nechali oklamat.

    5. Nepodcenujem axiomy, vsak aj mainstream z nich vychadza. Ale nie je mozne podlozit svoju teoriu axiomom, to nedava zmysel.

    6. Nargumentujte autoritou. Aj Augustus bol tvorcom vtedajsieho Rima, ale to neznamena, ze rozumel dokonale ekonomii. Ropke napisal tu knihu pred 76 rokmi, ked bola ekonomia viac beletriou. Nebrali sa rigorozne do uvahy ocakavania, dynamika. Ropkeho hodnotit nebudem, ale zaujal ma citat z toho linku:
    “Röpke is not perfect: while his analysis is excellent, he recommends a reflation after deflation.”

    Nuz v tomto sa s Ropkem zhodneme :)

  • tutulimutuli 24.02.2012 18:13

    Re Brano pise:
    “V prvom rade treba povedat, ze rakuska skola tiez nijako nevysvetluje sok v podobe prasknutia bubliny. Proste bublina praskne – lebo medved. To by bolo v poriadku, ved preto je to sok. Potom vsak pridu frazy o strukture, zakladnych signaloch a pod, co uz v poriadku ale nie je, pretoze nic nevysvetluju.”

    A presne tu treba zacat stavat kritiku rakuskej “skoly”. Ak sa chces venovat vedeckej ekonomii treba odhalit rakusku skolu, ktora dominuje SK mediam (Karpis je najcitovanejsim ekonomom :-D ).

    Odpovede zamaskovane v strede paragrafoch su nepripustne. Ekonomia sa da praktizovat ako veda, nie iba ako dogma alas INESS kultove stredisko.

    Co je nutne napisat? Hanopis co obnazit debilitu uvah rakuskeho kultu.

    Re:
    “A este jeden komentar k myleniu sa. Racionalne ocakavania neznamenaju, ze ludia sa nemylia. Oni sa mylia: raz prestrelia inokedy podstrelia.”

    Tu budem oponovat. V teorii racionalnych ocakavani urobi rozhodovatel najlepsie co moze pri danom poznani situacie. Nepodstreluju a ani nenadstreluju. Jednoducho sa sprava na zaklade informacii, ktore su im k dispozicii. Ex post sa to moze zdat ako podstrelovanie alebo nadstrelovanie i ked k nemu nedoslo.

    Priklad je odhad HDP statistickym uradom. Ciel nie je odhadnut skutocny HDP ale poskytnut co najpresnejsi odhad HDP. SU nezverejnuje co si mysli, ze bol HDP ale povie, ze vzhladom na jeho informacie sa domnieva ze HDP je vo vyske XY Euro.

  • juraj t 24.02.2012 19:18

    Článok, ktorí ľudia čítajú a ešte aj majú žiadzu podiskutovať si o ňom nie je zbytočný. :-)

    1. Nerozumiem tvrdeniu, že ceny sú rigidné. Ja vidím, že ceny sa neustále pohybujú. Podľa ponuky a dopytu. Možno som niečo nepochopil. Som iba diletant (ekonómia je pre mňa potešením, nie živobytím) bez komplexného ekonomického vzdelania.

    2. Samozrejme peniaze ľudia neminú hneď. To by boli zbytočné. Jedna z ich funkcií je odloženie spotreby. To som zahrnul pod uľahčením výmeny.

    3. Úroková miera, ktorá nezodpovedá reálnym úsporám vedie k úverovej expanzii. Ľudia sú ochotnejší ísť do banky pre úver. Samotná úroková miera samozrejme nestačí. Dnes je smiešne nízka, ale úvery stagnujú. Do nekonečna sa požičiavať nedá. Príde chvíľa, keď banka zistí, že je priveľa nesplatených úverov alebo potenciálni zákazníci zistia, že pri tých cenách na to nemajú. Úverová expanzia spôsobí, že je vo vzduchu plno záväzkov, ktoré nie sú kryté reálnou produkciou ale ibanešťastného a prísľubom, že keď ku nej dôjde, tak sa úver splatí. Domček z kariet.

    4. Rakušania vravia, že expanzia úverov vyvolá dojem nadbytku úspor. Preto sa v čase boomu investuje o dušu. Až do chvíle, keď sa zistí, že reálnych úspor je v skutočnosti oveľa menej a produkciu nemá kto kupovať. Malinvestment je to kľúčové slovo. Vďaka zlým signálom sa v investovaní pomýlilo oveľa viac investorov ako zvyčajne. A to je potom vážny problém.

    Monetárna politika má svoje dôsledky. Ale nesúhlasím s tvrdením, že nižšia úroková miera dvíha ekonomiku. Dnes je pri nule a nepomáha to. Ekonomika je krehký systém, ktorý stoji na koordinácii. Monetárna politika ho vie ovplyvniť ale pes je zakopaný v tom, že nie vždy tak, ako si tvorcovia tej politiky zaumienili. Zdá sa , že Hayekov spontánny poriadok funguje najlepšie.

    5. To bola Misesova predstava, že ekonómia je apriórna veda, ktorá vychádza z axiómov a ekonomické dáta môže iba vysvetľovať. Nedá sa na ich podklade nič dokázať ani vyvrátiť. Napísal o metodológii sociálnych vied toho dosť veľa. Vychádzal z nemožnosti robiť v sociálnych vedách experimenty podobné tým vo fyzike či chémii. Lebo nikdy nedokážeš dosiahnúť “ceteris paribus”. Rovnaké údaje môžu rôzni ľudia rôzne interpretovať. Bez poznania podstaty problémov sa nedá nikam pohnúť. Kedže sa pohybujem pár desaťročí v medicíne, kde je podobný problém s interpretáciou dát, je mi jeho spôsob myslenia blízky. Hayek s ním v absolútnom apriorizme celkom nesúhlasil. Myslím si, že aj Mises by v debate pripustil, že ekonometrika má svoje miesto. Možno šlo o reakciu na v tom čase “celebritného” Keynesa, ktorý ekonómiu naviedol na bludnú cestu. V tom nemám celkom jasno.

    6. Ropkeho som samozrejme neuviedol ako autoritu. Autority nie sú argument. Spomenul som si na neho ako na zaujímavé čítanie ohľadne hospodárskych kríz. Tú knihu som až tak podrobne nečítal ale mám dojem, že konečný verdikt v nej nevyniesol. Bol to vzdelanec na pohľadanie a kultivovaný ekonóm. Beriem tú knihu iba ako zaujímavý historický pohľad na problém, ktorý sa nás dnes tak intenzívne dotýka.

    Vďaka za reakciu. Ekonómia ma zaujíma už veľa rokov a súhlasím s Misesom, že ak ľudia nepochopia jej podstatu (nie je až taká zložitá), tak sa svet uberie veľmi zlou cestou.

  • juraj t 24.02.2012 19:36

    Ad tutulimutuli: “Ak sa chces venovat vedeckej ekonomii treba odhalit rakusku skolu, ktora dominuje SK mediam (Karpis je najcitovanejsim ekonomom).”

    Obávam sa, že si spadol do pasce. Vedecká teória nie je tá, ktorá sa prednáša na štátnych školách ale tá, ktorá dokáže najlepšie vysvetliť dianie okolo nás. V prípade sociálnych vied ako je napríklad ekonómia máš teórií a “spoľahlivých” teórií ako maku. Akademické tituly a miestodržiteľstvo univerzitných stolíc tu nič neznamenajú. Problém kritikov rakúskej ekonómie spočíva najčastejšie v tom, že brešú na zlý strom. Čosi zazreli z rýchliku a už sa vadia ostošesť. Taký laureat Krugman s jeho propagitkou v NYT je klasická ukážka.

    Súhlasím, že sa treba vadiť a odhaľovať nedostatky teórií. Nikto nie je neomylný.

    Takže keď sa vadiť s Karpišom, tak nie na základe vlastných interpretácií jeho článkov ale na základe toho, čo naozaj povedal a myslel. O rakušanoch sa dlho nevedelo, lebo ktorá štátna škola by platila ekonóma, čo tvrdí, že štát má dať ruky od ekonomiky preč, že? To by dnes tá zberba nemala v rukách polovicu našich príjmov. Dnes je ale dosť možností naštudovať si, čo naozaj tvrdia a nebrechať na zlý strom.

  • Braňo 25.02.2012 14:38

    1. Ceny sa hybu, ale v kratkom horizonte (do jedneho roku) sa hybu len velmi pozvolna. Nereaguju na sok tak velmi ako by mali. Pozri link v clanku, ak si chces precitat viac o rigidnych cenach.

    2. O to nejde. Ludia a banky niekedy hromadia peniaze. To nie je technicky uspora. Uspory su investicie. Toto hromadenie je skor vynatie penazi z obehu (technicky ide o znizenie rychlosti penazi v obehu), cim vznika tlak na pokles cien. Ale ceny sa nestihnu prisposobit a preto najprv klesa realny output. A je uplne jedno, ci tu mame frakcne rezervy alebo nie.

    3. Uspory, teda investicie, su tiez len spotreba. Ibaze sa ludia dohodli, ze niektora spotreba moze priniest vynos az v buducnosti a tak ju budeme volat investicia. Kupa potravin je spotreba, ale kupa stroja uz je investicia. Vo vseobecnosti vsak ide tak ci onak o spotrebu.

    Nominalna urokova miera je len odrazom dopytu a ponuky a naozaj nam vela nehovori, i ked sa na nu rakusania neustale odvolavaju a hovoria vtedy o expanzii lacnych penazi, atd.. Dnes je malo uverov nie kvoli nesplatenym hypotekam, ale preto, lebo banky navysuju svoj kapital.

    Nejde ani o poziciavanie do nekonecna, to nie je podmienka monetarnej politiky.

    4. Ano, rakusania hovoria o tom, ze ludia sa stale zas a znova nechaju oklamat a neskor zistia, ze zase spravili tu istu chybu, co predtym. To je dost nezmyselny prepodklad.

    Dalsim omylom je predpoklad, ze “realnych uspor je menej a produkciu nema kto kupovat”. Produkcia sa totiz kupuje za nominalne peniaze. Pokial centralna banka zvysi ponuku penazi s cielom znizit urokove sadzby, tak produkciu ma kto kupovat, lebo peniaze su v obehu.

    Ja viem, ze nominalna sadzba na nule nemusi znamenat expanziu, ved v clanku o tom pisem a spominam tam aj Friedmana. Pisal som vsak o REALNEJ urokovej miere. Ak je realna urokova miera pod prirodzenou realnou urokovou mierou, tak vtedy dochadza pri nevyuzitych kapacitach k rastu ekonomiky.

    5. Ani astrofyzika nedokaze casto robit experimenty. Ani geologovia nerobia experiment s Pangeou a predsa sa tvaria ako vedci. Ekonomovia maju dnes k dispozicii dost dat nato, aby robili statisticku analyzu hypotez. Netreba aby tam bola hned kauzalita, staci poctivo zbierat “evidence”. Niekedy dokazu ekonomovia analyzovat aj velmi cenny prirodzeny experiment. Od rakusanov by vsak stacilo, aby prepisali svoj jednoduchy model so vsetkymi predpokladmi a predikciami do zrozumitelnejsej matematickej podoby, aby sme ho vedeli analyzovat a porovnat s realitou. Kazda ekonomicka skola tak robi, len rakusania ostavaju pri svojom beletrickom modeli.

    Takisto si nemyslim, ze Keynes naviedol ekonomiu na bludnu cestu. On tiez patril k beletristom, ale jeho nastupnici – Hicks a spol. zaviedli do toho trochu poriadok a odvtedy sa da o ekonomii hovorit aj analyticky nielen ideologicky.

  • juraj t 25.02.2012 17:12

    OK. Nie že by som sa nechal presvedčiť ale keď sa budem vo voľných chvíľach vŕtať v literatúre (na internete), tak sa na tie veci pozriem. Robím to iba zo zvedavosti a pre vlastné potešenie. Bohužiaľ doteraz som pri kritike rakúskej školy narazil vždy na jej “vyvrátenie” buď nezmyselným zosmiešňovaním alebo vyvracaním názorov, ktoré by skritizoval aj každý klasik tej školy. Kedže sa málokde vyučuje, príležitostní oponenti jej poriadne nerozumejú.

    Som už dosť starý na to, aby som si o každom oponentovi myslel, že je blb. Zdá sa mi, že rozdiely v ekonomických teóriách stoja na rôznom uhle pohľadu. Občas mi to pripomína klasický problém sliepka vs. vajce. Napríklad Demand or supply driven economy? :-)

    Prírodné vedy stoja na pozorovaniach a predpoklade, že ak niektorá závislosť platí, tak platí vždy a všade. Astrofyzici aj geológovia tak aj bez experimentov stoja na pevnej pôde. To sa o ekonómii často povedať nedá. Stále bude platiť Misesovo tvrdenie, že v sociálnych vedách sa akékoľvek fakty dajú rôzne vysvetľovať. Nie je náhoda, že nobelovú cenu za ekonómiu rozdávajú švédski bankári ľuďom s úplne opačnými názormi. Dvojica Myrdal Hayek je klasickou ukážkou.

  • Braňo 25.02.2012 20:11

    Mozno vas presvedci Gustav Cassel, ktory explicitne varoval pred Velkou Depresiou s 10rocnym predstihom, pricom pomenoval velmi presne aj jej priciny: zvyseny dopyt po zlate povedie k deflacii a v dosledku rigidnosti nominalnych miezd pride k nezamestnanosti.
    http://www.dartmouth.edu/~dirwin/Cassel.pdf

  • juraj t 26.02.2012 16:36

    Pozriem sa na to. Ja tej teorii o zlate velmi neverim, ale mozno na tom nieco je. Co sa tyka predvidania, plati stary bonmot, ze nech sa stane cokolvek, vzdy sa najde niekto, kto to predvidal. :-)

    Vtedajsiu krizu predpovedal aj Mises. Odmietol nejake vyznamne miesto v bankovom sektore s tym, ze ide kriza a on s nou nechce byt spajany. Videl ale ine dovody prichadzajucej krizy ako Cassel. Zlaty standard Mises povazoval za rozumne riesenie. Samozrejme netvrdil, ze je jedine mozne. Rozhodnutie o sposobe penazi nechaval na slobodnom trhu, lebo zasahy vlad do meny trh zvycajne narusuju a robia menej efektivnym.

    Terajsiu recesiu a krizu predpovedali napriklad v rovnakom case aj Krugman aj rakusania. Ale z rozlicnych dovodov. To je vecny problem socialnych vied bez rozdielu. Niet sposobu ako cokolvek dokazat experimentom. “Methodenstreit” asi nebude nikdy vyrieseny ku spokojnosti vsetkych. Zastancom roznych teorii ostava iba trpezlivo presviedcat publikum, ze ta ich je spravna.

  • Avatar 26.02.2012 19:38

    objavil som zaujímavú vec vo výkladovom slovníku:

    Ak niekto povie “som zastanca rakuskej skoly”, znamena to “som beznadejne uhlupeny ideologiou 19teho storocia, ktorou je nasa krajina kolonizovana v dvadsiatom prvom storoci, na ktoru osobne doplacam bez toho, ze by som o tom vedel”.

  • juraj t 28.02.2012 22:55

    Ad avatar: Na čom fičíš? :-)

  • Dezmar 29.02.2012 16:10

    “najhlbšia a najrozsiahlejšia depresia mala nastať takmer po celom svete po skončení druhej svetovej vojny, keď mali byť zlikvidované všetky „zlé investície“ naviazané na boom vojenského priemyslu, ktoré boli vytvorené v rámci štátom regulovanej dotovanej a zdeformovanej produkčnej štruktúry nepoužiteľnej v mierových časoch.”
    …ale to nie je paralela s dneskom! Vtedy sa nafuknuty predsa zbrojarsky priemysel zlikvidoval na uroven potrebnu pre studenu vojnu, prisla kratka recesia, a svet isiel dalej. Co robime dnes? ‘Zbrojarskemu priemyslu” (=financnemu sektoru, real estate, a par vybratym odvetviam ako automotive) davame nekonecne pozicky, znizujeme zbrojarom urokovu miery, a stimulujeme ludi, aby zosrotovali stare tanky a kupovali nove a politici a cast ekonomov by nam tvrdili, ze ludia nechcu kupovat tanky, pretoze je malo penazi v obehu. Keby sa toto robilo po WWII, tak by ta super recesia prisla .)

  • Dezmar 29.02.2012 16:21

    Ten zaver je uz uplne zabity. Takze prirodzena urokova miera nie je ta, ktora by vznikla na volnom trhu, ale ta, ktoru vypocita typek v kancli c 765 na 7. poschodi ECBcky na zaklade vzorca, co dali dokopy typci dve poschodia pod nim :)
    A samozrejme, ECB aj FED su nezavisle ako papezska stolica a vobec neexsituje prepojenie na politiku a snaha upravovat trhovy sentiment podla objednavky. Takisto to, ze zachranuju banky, v ktorych polovica C.bankarov predtym pracovala, je len kvoli tomu, ze chcu pomoct pracujucemu cloveku.

  • J.V. Dubois 01.03.2012 10:58

    Dezmar: Pri tom prirodzenom úroku si treba skôr vybaviť, že v realite existujú stavy s viacerými rovnováhami. Ak dôjde k šoku na strane dopytu, a CB zvýši ponuku peňazí tak prirodzené trhové mechanizmy presunú ekonomiku do nového “rovnovážneho” stavu s nižšou produkcou a zamestnanosťou. Ak CB zvýši ponuku peňazí, tak tie isté sily dotlačia ekonomiku do iného rovnovážneho stavu s vyššou produkciou a zamestnanosťou.
    .
    Rovnaké príklady nájdete v dennodennej realite. Predstavte si že idete na bicikly a šliapete do pedálou nejakou silou. Zrazu príde “šok” v napríklad v podobe siulného poryvu vetra z protismeru a vy zistíte že strácate rýchlosť. Ak nezačnete šliapať dostatočne rýchlo, veľmi ľahko sa môže stať že sa presuniete z jedného rovnovážneho stavu “idem dopredu” k druhému rovnovážnemu stavu “mal som nízku rýchlosť a roplácol som sa aj s byciklom na ceste”.

    Mainstreamoví ekonómovia hovoria, podľa našeho fyzikálneho modelu je potrebné upraviť silu šľapania podľa sily vetra týmto vzorcom tak, aby sme stále išli dopredu. Rakúšania hovoria – nie, treba šľapať konštantnou silou na tomto prevode, lebo takto sa najefektívnejšie penáša energia zo svalov do rýchlosti. Zmena rýchlosti šľapania je umelým zásahom, ktorý túto rovnováhu narušujú. Ak sa rozcapíte na zem, tak to je kvôli tomu že ste sa niekedy v minulosti presilli tým ako ste nemorálne silno tlačili do pedálov.

  • juraj t 01.03.2012 15:40

    Už som si zvykol, že keď niekto v diskusiách na internete kritizuje rakúsku školu, tak temer vždy kritizuje čosi, čo s ňou nemá nič spoločné. Skôr sa vadí s vlastnou bludnou predstavou o nej. Ale tento príklad s bicyklom je naozaj sila. To už je prinajmenšom interpretácia zo siedmej dimenzie časopriestoru. :-)

    BTW šok na strane dopytu znamená iba toľko, že nie je na trhu dosť dopytovanej produkcie. Podnikatelia sa vo veľkom sekli, a tak svoju produkciu nepredajú. Ak nepredajú, tak nemajú za čo ani oni a ich zamestnanci kupovať. V prípade, že je takých podnikateľov viac ako zvyčajne, tak vzniká recesia alebo kríza.

    S tým centrálna banka nepomôže. Iba ak by v nej sedel nejaký vesmírny človek, ktorý by vedel tým neúspešným podnikateľom prezradiť, čo by od nich ľudia kupovali. Taký sa ešte nenarodil. S tým sa musí každý popasovať sám.

    Machináciami s úrokom a tlačením peňazí chybné rozhodnutia a investície nenapraví. Peniaze sú iba prostriedok výmeny. Samé o sebe sú bezcenné a ich tlačením bohatstvo nevzniká. Machinácie centrálnej banky s peniazmi a úrokom iba presúvajú reálne bohatstvo od jedných k druhým. So zbožnou nádejou, že by to mohlo pomôcť ekonomike. Uver tomu, kto chceš…

  • J.V. Dubois 01.03.2012 17:08

    “ok na strane dopytu znamená iba toľko, že nie je na trhu dosť dopytovanej produkcie”

    Úžasné, úžasne. Inak povedané, šok na strane dopytu je vlastne šok na strane ponuky. Fantastická analýza, bravó.

    Keby ste radšej prestali obviňovať ľudí z nesprávnej interpretácie ABCT a radšej si vo svojej hlave odpovedali na to, čo hovrí ABCT ak ľudia začnú (z akéhokoľvek dôvodu) dopytovať nie tovary, ale obeživo. Inak povedané, rapídne sa spomalí rýchlosť obehu peňazí. A kľudne si predstavme že neexistuje žiadna centrálna banka a dokonca ani komerčné banky, a že ľudia platia zlatými dukátmi. Znížia sa ceny? To teda nie, lebo ceny sú z krátkodobého hľadiska rigidne. Toto dokázaný fakt, ak chcete skúste ho nejako vyvrátiť – good luck.

    Ak sa zníži nominálny dopyt (lebo sa presunie z reálnych tovarov a služieb na obeživo), a ceny sú rigídne (lebo to je realita našeho sveta), tak sa prepadne reálna produkcia tovarov a služieb. Toto sa inak nazýva aj ako hospodárska recesia, ktorá je sprevádzaná nezamestnanosťou. Ale čo to. Nebodaj máme recesiu pri absencii bánk? Nemožné, hovorí ABCT. Môj myšlienkový experiment podložený empirickými pozorovaniami hovorí, že možné. Kde to len tí rakúsky soudruzi udělali chybu?

  • juraj t 01.03.2012 20:17

    Tzv. šok na strane dopytu je samozrejme spôsobený na strane ponuky. Ak ponúkaš na trhu niečo, čo nevieš predať, nemáš za čo potom dopytovať. Bez ponuky niet dopytu. Iba ak nazveš žobranie alebo večný život na úver dopytom. Najprv musíš niečo vymeniteľné vyprodukovať. Ekonomiku ťahá produkcia, ktorá sekundárne umožňuje dopyt. Odporúčam začítať sa do Saya. Marx ani Keynes ho nemali radi ale jeho zákon napriek tomu platí.

    Povere o rigidných cenách na slobodnom trhu ja neverím, takže mi je ako argument ľahostajná. Nedáva totiž zmysel a neviem o tom, že by ktosi čosi také pozoroval. Problémom je v socializme alebo korporátnom kapitalizme rigidita platov a rôzne štátne zásahy do cien. To je ale problém politický, nie ekonomický. Zneužívanie moci.

    Tajomný a nevysvetliteľný masívny presun záujmu ľudí z oblasti spotreby do ukladania peňazí do punčochy, lebo zrazu nechcú spotrebu je síce srandovný myšlienkový experiment ale netuším, na čo je dobrý. Ak ľudia vo veľkom odkladajú spotrebu a šetria, má to iste nejaký dôvod.

  • J.V. Dubois 02.03.2012 14:13

    Pán Juraj, chybe vo vašej definícii Sayovho zákona Rozumel už Ricardo pred takmer 200 rokmi. Ale pre ABCT to bude asi novinkou. V peňažnej ekonomike (ako máme dnes) totiž existujú nielen tovary, ale aj peniaze. Je absolútne možné (a aj sa to v realite stáva), že ľudia produkujú a predávajú tovary a služby nie aby si výmenou za ne kúpili iné tovary a služby, ale aby si naschraňovali peňažnú hotovosť. Jednou zo základných úloh monetárnej politiky je práve snaha aby Sayov zákon platil. Teda aby ľudia obeživo nepoúživali ako uchovávač hodnoty, ale na sprostredkovanie kúpy a predaju tovarov a služieb. Teda na ten základný a hlavný účel ktorý peniaze majú plniť.

    Vy síce v rigidné ceny neveríte, to však (bohužiaľ) nemá žiaden dopad na to že ich v realite pozorujeme. A nie, nie sú spôsobené vládnou reguláciou. Ak by ste mali iba aspoň za mak snahy čítať aj inú literatúru ako výplody rakušákov na mises.org, možno by ste sa dočítali o vysvetlení týchto rigidít spôsobených napríklad cez “menu costs”, “efficiency wages”, “implicit contract”, o first mover probléme zmeny ceny pri monopolistickej súťaži a iné. Ale nie, to by ste v prvom rade museli vystrčiť hlavu zo svojej ulity krástne vystlanej ideologickými primitivizmami a konfrontovať sa s realitou.

  • juraj t 02.03.2012 20:35

    Tá posledná veta je jasne nevyvratiteľný argument. Q.E.D.

    Ak má niekto iný názor, tak musí byť z definície ideologicky zaslepený primitív. Keď som bol kedysi veľmi dávno malý chlapec, tiež sa mi to tak javilo. Vyrástol som z toho. Nie každému sa to ale podarí. :-)

    BTW námietky voči Sayovi poznám dosť podrobne. Nemôžem za to, že ma doteraz nepresvedčili.

  • J.V. Dubois 03.03.2012 11:27

    Nie, iný názor nerobí z človeka primitíva. Primitíva z teba robí to ak máš primitívne názory.

    Zober si tú somarinu čo si povedal, že ťa “nepresvedčili” argumenty o Sayovom zákone. To nie je o presvedčovaní, ale o základnej logike.

    Fakt 1: ak si ľudia okrem tovarov “kupujú” aj obeživo, teda predávajú tovary aby si odkladali peniaze do ponžiek, tak Sayov zákon neplatí. To sa dá dokázať tým najjednoduchším myšlienkovým pokusom a vysvetlenia nájdeš v obrovskom množstve literatúry. Ak tento fakt odmietaš, tak si zaslepený ideologický primitív. To nie je ad hominem, ale pravda.

    Fakt 2: ľudia si v realite tie peniaze do tých ponožiek ukladajú. Miera ukladania peňazí obeživa ponožiek sa vyjadruje cez takzvanú “money velocity”, teda cez rýchlosť obehu peňazí v ekonomike. Ak by si si čítal ten Braňov článok, tak by si napríklad natrafil na tento link: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=50p

    Ak odmietaš prijať, alebo zmysluplne protiargumentovať voči týmto argumentom inak ako pocitom či vierou (“nepresvedčili ma”), tak jednoducho si ideologicky zaslepený primitív, či sa ti to páči alebo nie.

  • juraj t 05.03.2012 21:13

    Takto voľajako zvykol argumentovať prezident Antonín Novotný. To bol ten, čo mal francúzsku výchovu. Keď sa učil za zámočníka, tak ho majster mlátil po hlave francúzskym kľúčom. Neskôr, keď bol prezidentom Husák, som takúto argumentáciu počúval od politrukov na vojne. Od tých čias som na tento spôsob “argumentácie” imúnny.

  • J.V. Dubois 06.03.2012 7:07

    Historka s Novotným je fantastická, ale predpokladám že nám nebude vedieť povedať ni nič k tej rýchlosti obehu peňazí, alebo k tomu ako platí Sayov zákon keď ľudia začnú hromadiť obeživo. Máš skutočne vynikajúcu imunitu voči faktom, to ti treba nechať.

  • juraj t 06.03.2012 21:53

    Možno je pes zakopaný práve v otázke, prečo ľudia niekedy hromadia tzv. obeživo (dosť blbý výraz, lebo peniaze menia majiteľa ale neobiehajú). Jednoducho ak chceš niečo kúpiť, musíš najprv niečo vyrobiť. Niečo, čo samozrejme dokážeš predať. Ak vyrábaš niečo, čo ľudia nekupujú, začneš hromžiť, že keby mali viac peňazí, tak by kupovali. Keyness to vznešene nazval liquidity trap.

    Ale je to furt iba o tom, že si sa netrafil do dopytu. V slobodnej ekonomike to vedie k tomu, že prestaneš vyrábať a firma zanikne alebo ju kúpi niekto s lepším nosom na žiadzu konzumentov. V neslobodnej si nájdeš politikov, čo tvoju nepredajnú produkciu dajú zaplatiť daňových poplatníkov. Aj keď tí na tvoju produkciu kašlú. A tak môžeš aj naďalej vyrábať čosi, čo nikto nechce. A HDP, modla politikov, utešene rastie.

    To platnosť zákona nemení. V slobodnej ekonomike všeobecná nadprodukcia nemôže existovať. “Nadproducent” ide z trhu rýchlo preč. Množstvo peňazí s tým naozaj nemá nič spoločné. V slobodnej ekonomike totiž žiadna rigidita cien neexistuje. Máš zisk, funguješ. Nemáš zisk, skrachuješ. Štátne intervencie to nezachránia. Iba deformujú a vedú k neefektivite a plýtvaniu.

  • J.V. Dubois 07.03.2012 12:11

    Sayov zákon hovorí, že “products are paid for with products”. Iná interpretácia je tá, že na trhu predávaš iba vtedy, ak si chceš niečo kúpiť. Inak povedané, ponuka niekoho iného na trhu ťa motivuje ísť na trh so svojou ponukou aby mohlo dôjsť k výmene.

    Problémom je, že takéto niečo funguje iba v bartrovej ekonomike. Existuje úplne reálny a opodstatnený scenár, že sa zúčastníš trhovej výmeny nie aby si si od niekoho iného kúpil nejaký tovar, ale aby si si “kúpil” peniaze – prostriedok výmeny.

    Predstaviť sa to dá na jednoduchej ekonomike “škriabania chrbáta”. Majme dvoch ľudí, ktorí tvoria ekonomiku s jediným tovarom – škriabanie chrbta. Nikto si nevie sám poškriabať chrbát, vedia si to robiť iba navzájom. Začnime v bartrovej ekonomike – systém je jednoduchý, ja poškriabem chrbát tebe a potom ty mne. Jediný spôsob ako si poškriabať chrbát je poškriabať ho niekomu inému. Ale platí to aj naopak – ak chcete poškriabať chrbát niekomu inému, musíte si nechať poškriabať chrbát aj sebe. Sayov zákon platí dokonale.

    Avšak ak pridáte peniaze, môže nastať problém. Niekto môže chcieť škriabať chrbát nie aby dostal obratom rovnakú službu, ale aby zhromažďoval peniaze. Ktovie, možno si nimi chce vytapetovať izbu.

  • juraj t 07.03.2012 17:14

    A sme doma. :-)

    Už to nechám tak ale kdekto si Sayov zákon (aj keď to on tak nenazval) vykladá všakovako. To je jeden koreň nedorozumení. To je na dlhú debatu. Rôzni ľudia pozerajú na svet z rôznych uhlov, a tak rovnaký jav sa im môže zdať rozdielnym. Okrem toho záleží aj na východiskách, z ktorých sa vychádza. Nevraviac o tom, že v debatách sa určité veci považujú za tak samozrejme, že ich človek ani nevysloví.

    Aj dnes platí, že produkciu kupujeme inou produkciou. Nie každý chápe tento prostý fakt, z čoho je veľa nedorozumení.

    S peniazmi nie je hlavný problém v tom, že by mohli všetky skončiť v punčochách. Na slobodnom trhu by si ľudia našli náhradu. Je to pôvodne iba skvelo vymeniteľný statok. Hlavný problém je svojvoľná uzurpácia štátu nad nimi a manipulácie, ktoré z toho vyplývajú.

    Ako vravím, je to na dlhú debatu.

  • J.V. Dubois 08.03.2012 18:19

    Nie, Sayov zákon nie je až takým predmetom interpretácie, nie tak ako sa to snažíš naznačiť. Neviem ako ty, ale ja si veci kupujem peniazmi – nie inými produktami. Tento jednoduchý detail robí v praxi ohromný rozdiel.

    V stabilnej ekonomike ľudia nehromaždia veľa hotovosti. Predajú nejakú vec (napríklad prácu) a obratom si za to kúpia inú vec (napríklad tovar, alebo akcie, alebo dlhopsy). Samotné peniaze voľne obiehajú ekonomikou, putujú z ruky do ruky a sprostredkovávajú túto výmenu. V takejto ekonomike sa dá hovoriť, že takmer dokonale platí Sayov zákon.

    Situácia sa radikálne mení ak sa peniaze sami o sebe stanú žiadané. Ak nechcem kupovať tovary alebo dlhopisy, ale peniaze odstránim z obehu a čakám čo sa bude diať. Nastávajú veľmi nepríjemné efekty, o ktorých teraz nechcem hovoriť.

  • juraj t 08.03.2012 23:10

    Ak chceš niečo kúpiť, musíš najprv niečo predať, aby si mal peniaze na ten nákup. Takže to, čo si predal (trebárs svoju prácu), vymieňaš prostredníctvom peňazí za to, čo kupuješ. Aby si nemusel bartrovať, predávaš aj kupuješ za peniaze.

    Ak sa situacia radikálne mení a ľudia odkladajú spotrebu, tak to má asi nejaký dôvod, že? Ten treba hľadať. Dnes je napríklad plno peňazí ale ani banky nevedia, čo s nimi. Takže v nedostatku peňazí problém zrejme nebude. Problém je skôr v tom, že ponuka nezodpovedá dopytu. V skratke malinvestment.

    Niekto narušil spontánny poriadok, ktorý udržuje ekonomiku vo fungujúcom stave. Otázka znie, kto ten spontánny poriadok narušil a ako sa z tej poruchy dostať.

    Jedni vravia, že to treba nechať na účastníkov trhu. Iní vravia, že to majú riešiť centrálne banky a politici. Ale ako mám veriť, že bradatý šéf centrálnej banky, ktorý splietal čosi o zdravej ekonomike v čase, keď už začínala kríza, vie, ako tú krízu riešiť? Aj knihu o Veľkej depresii napísal ale zrejme o príčinách a ich riešení vie toľko ako my. O schopnostiach politikov škoda vravieť.

    Som prívržencom spontánneho systému v zmysle Hayekovho “The Use of Knowledge in Society “. Slobodný trh samozrejme neznamená, že budeme mať ideálny svet bez problémov. Problémy sú prirodzená súčasť nášho života, lebo budúcnosť je vždy neistá. Ale neverím, že príde nejaký guru a dokáže problémom zabrániť alebo ich svojimi príkazmi vyriešiť. Tu žiadne rovnice ani grafy nepomôžu.

    Bohužiaľ platí staré maďarské príslovie o tom, že nakoniec obcuje väčší pes. S tým veľa nenarobíme. :-)

  • J.V. Dubois 09.03.2012 9:36

    “Dnes je napríklad plno peňazí ale ani banky nevedia, čo s nimi” – však to je preboha pointa problému. Mať plno peňazí a nevedieť čo s nimi robiť (minúť ich na spotrebu alebo investície) je pointou toho čo hovorím. Držanie peňazí v ponožke je extrémne škodlivý spôsob odloženia spotreby. Investícia do kapitálu potrebného na výrobu tých vecí čo v budúcnosti budeš potrebovať by bol príklad dobrého odloženia spotreby.

  • juraj t 09.03.2012 14:51

    Investuje sa do kapitálových statkov, ktoré poslúžia v budúcnosti na produkciu, ktorá sa bude dať predať, a teda prinesie zisk. To je riziko každého podnikania, lebo do budúcnosti nikto nevidí. Ak je doba neistá, tak sa do investovania púšťa ťažko.

    Základná otázka je, prečo zrazu nikto tie peniaze nechce. Tam je pes zakopaný. Čo sa prihodilo, že došlo k takému stavu? To je námet na debatu. Príčina toho stavu. Zdá sa, že v nedostatku peňazí to nie je, lebo ich vyrábanie zjavne nepomáha.

    Ja si myslím, že ktosi rozvrátil spontánny poriadok v ekonomike (nechajme bokom kto a ako) a teraz sa to musí napraviť. Najlepšie, aj keď bolestné, je to nechať samo na seba. Nech ľudia sslobodne svojimi peňaženkami rozhodnú, čo je účelné produkovať a čo nie. To je samozrejme v situácii, keď tu máme zavedený silný štát s množstvom záväzkov voči obyvateľstvu, asi skoro nemožné.

    Čert nám bol dlžen ten nápad so sociálnym štátom. Teraz sa z toho nevymoceme.

    Počúvam napríklad (iná stránka tej mince silného štátu kafrajúceho do ekonomiky), že zdravotné sestry začínajú mať existenčné problémy. Prečo? Lebo múdri politici sa rozhodli určiť cenu ich práce zákonom. Ako každá regulovaná cena, aj táto prinesie úplne iné dôsledky ako boli deklarované. Pôjdu mnohé na dlažbu.

    Tak to zvyčajne dopadne, keď chce ktosi mocensky vstupovať do ekonomiky. Plno sestier bude bez práce napriek tomu, že je záujem o ich služby. Ďalšia umelá nezamestnanosť. Ktorá sa možno vyrieši až vo chvíli, keď si ľudia zvyknú, že musia okrem poistky platiť aj cash v ambulancii či nemocnici. O tom posranci cudne mlčali, keď sa tvárili, že hlasujú za vyššie platy sestier…

    Ale to som odbehol trochu od témy. :-)

  • Dylan Volesky 17.04.2013 19:50

    Velmi dobre informacie.

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