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Grécka demokracia kapituluje, začína sa okupácia

To, čo sa minulý týždeň udialo v Grécku, nemá v najnovších dejinách obdobu. Médiá o podpise zmluvy na druhý záchranný úver a o vyhlásení euroskupiny informovali iba ako o ďalšej etape boja proti kríze v eurozóne. V skutočnosti ale pravdepodobne ide o čosi omnoho omnoho väčšie.

Pre lepšie pochopenie si skúsme predstaviť nasledujúcu situáciu. Zlé nastavenie eurozóny, hospodárska kríza a nekompetentné politické elity dostanú našu krajinu do kritickej finančnej situácie. Budeme mať na výber. Možnosť prvá – vypovedanie dlhov, prípadne odchod z menovej únie. Dôsledky takéhoto výberu sa nedajú presne predpovedať. Boli by však takmer určite katastrofálne a neviem o politikovi, ktorý by sa na takéto rozhodnutie dobrovoľne podujal.

Možnosť druhá – „pomoc“ zo zahraničia. Podmienkou tejto pomoci však je, že sa vzdáme možnosti robiť zásadné rozhodnutia o rozpočte a necháme si ich nadiktovať autoritou zo zahraničia. Naozajstná Sofiina voľba.

Grécki predstavitelia sa rozhodli pre druhú možnosť, a teda kapitulovali. Lídri dvoch najsilnejších gréckych strán PASOKNea Demokratia napísali predstaviteľkám a predstaviteľom tzv. trojky (EK, ECB, MMF) listy. V nich sa horlivo zaväzujú (formulácia má skutočne až úslužný charakter), že ich strany budú naďalej (tzn. aj po aprílových voľbách) dodržiavať tzv. stabilizačný program, teda diktované požiadavky veriteľov.

Interpretácia uvedeného vývoja je nasledovná. Grécke politické elity sa už neuchádzajú o priazeň voličov, ale o priazeň zahraničných veriteľov-arbitrov. Z hľadiska voličov je zase úplne jedno, či pôjdu voliť ľavicu, pravicu, alebo voliť nepôjdu – o osude krajiny je už teraz rozhodnuté a voľby majú pre rozhodnutia prijímané v najbližších rokoch iba čisto formálny význam. V podstate by ich v rámci úsporných opatrení mohli pokojne zrušiť a nič by sa nestalo. Tam, kde ľudia nemôžu rozhodovať o svojej krajine, končí demokracia. Ak to za nich robí zahraničie, jedná sa o de facto okupáciu.

A aký je teda osud krajiny, ktorý krvou na kapitulačných dokumentoch spečatili grécki politici? Schválili niekoľko prioritných opatrení, ktoré sa musia formou zákonov, ministerských rozhodnutí či prezidentských dekrétov realizovať do konca februára, čiže dodnes. Až potom sa vyplatí prvá tranža schválenej „pomoci“.

Patrí medzi ne zníženie výdavkov na nákup liekov o viac než miliardu eur, zníženie rozpočtu na verejné investície o 400 miliónov eur, dodatočné škrty v štrukturálnych výdavkoch o 325 miliónov, dôchodková reforma a zníženie dôchodkov o 300 miliónov. Ďalej sa jedná o neslýchané zníženie miezd o 22 % a miezd ľudí do 25 rokov o 32 % oproti úrovni miezd z januára tohto roku (čiže spolu s predchádzajúcim znižovaním to môže byť súhrnne aj o polovicu!) a o drastické oslabenie mechanizmov kolektívneho vyjednávania. Osobitnou kapitolou je výpredaj štátneho majetku. Do konca roka 2015 má Grécko v privatizácii rozpredať majetok vrátane podielov v štátnych podnikoch za cca. 40 mld. eur.

Summa summarum – za mediálneho mlčania resp. tichého súhlasu sme svedkami faktickej likvidácie a perestrojky zvrchovaného štátu a absolútne drakonických sociálnych opatrení.

Každému, kto trocha realisticky uvažuje, musí byť jasné, že požadované opatrenia sú nerealistické a prakticky nerealizovateľné, nielen v Grécku (už teraz sa hovorí o potrebe tretieho balíčka „pomoci“). Tak aký význam potom majú? Obávam sa, že jediný – vyskúšať, ako ďaleko sa dá zájsť a koľko taká krajina vydrží. Na rozdiel od gréckych politikov je pre niektorých európskych lídrov súčasná situácia situáciou win-win. Realizácia úverových podmienok vytlčie z krajiny, čo to dá, a veritelia dostanú svoj diel. Ak program vyvinie na politikov a obyvateľstvo taký neúnosný tlak, že vypudí Grécko z eurozóny, mnohí si pomädlia ruky a povedia si, že aj tak dobre.

V úvode som skonštatoval, že aktuálna situácia nemá obdobu. Áno, zdá sa, že je precedensom pre ďalšie krajiny. Pri absencii medzinárodných pravidiel štátneho bankrotu môže byť grécky experiment modelom pre ďalšie štáty európskej periférie, ale aj sveta. Je dosť možné, že svet po kríze čaká éra krachujúcich štátov a následných technokratických polodiktatúr a protektorátov. Ale najhoršie je, že mnohých táto predstava vôbec nedesí.

Skrátená verzia článku vychádza ako komentár v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (85)

  • peet 29.02.2012 5:14

    Stane sa Grécko prvým anarchokapitalistickým štátom? Zdá sa, že banky si už dnes môžu kúpiť aj štáty, takže načo vytvárať impérium od gruntu.

  • Braňo 29.02.2012 10:41

    “Zlé nastavenie eurozóny, hospodárska kríza a nekompetentné politické elity dostanú našu krajinu do kritickej finančnej situácie. Budeme mať na výber.”

    Tieto tri faktory posobia vsak na kazdu z krajin eurozony. Preco teda prave Grecko? Nahoda?

    “Ďalej sa jedná o neslýchané zníženie miezd o 22 % a miezd ľudí do 25 rokov o 32 % oproti úrovni miezd z januára tohto roku (čiže spolu s predchádzajúcim znižovaním to môže byť súhrnne aj o polovicu!)”

    Tu treba napisat, ze ide o znizenie MINIMALNEJ mzdy, ktora bola na urovni 751 eur. Tolko maju v Spanielsku, ktore ma o 10-15% vyssi vykon a je to dokonca viac ako maju na Islande, ktore ma o 25% vyssiu produktivitu. Neslychanemu znizeniu teda predchadzalo neslychane zvysenie, za ticheho medialneho suhlasu…

    Slovinsko je v produktivite na urovni Grecka a minimalnu mzdu tam maju o 200€ nizsiu.

  • Ivan Lesay 29.02.2012 11:05

    brano, to som zovseobecnil, aby sme si vedeli predstavit situaciu. jasne, ze su konkretne dovody, preco je to grecko. ale o to mi neslo.
    a ten druhy argument… nemyslis vazne, to je pod tvoju uroven. jednak porovnavas nominalne hodnoty v krajinach s roznou cenovou hladinou. ale kaslat na to, chapem tvoju pointu, ze chces dat do suvislosti mzdy s produktivitou. ale jedna vec su cisla a druha vec su konkretne dopady konkretnej politiky. greci sa teoreticky aj po skrtoch mozu stale utesovat, ze su na tom lepsie nez v rwande. ale tak psychologia (a politika) nefunguje. chapes, co chcem povedat?

  • Braňo 29.02.2012 12:01

    Vidis, ja si naopak myslim, ze clanok je pod tvoju uroven. Situaciu v Grecku si hned na zaciatku hodil komplet celu na nejake externe prostredie s tym, ze greci za nic nemozu a potom uz si len prilozil okupaciu, drasticke znizenie miezd atd.

    Neporovnavam nominalne hodnoty, porovnavam vykon ekonomik v HDP na hlavu v parite kupnej sily. Spanielsko a Island maju pochopitelne vyssie ceny ako Grecko, vyssiu produktivitu, ale paradoxne nizsie minimalne mzdy. Pripadne si over sam, prepni do PPP a uvidis, ze Greci maju o 20% vyssiu realnu minimalnu mzdu ako Spanieli, pri 10-15% nizsej produktivite:
    http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=RHMW

    Toto predsa nemozme obhajit nejakou konspiraciou a psychologiou.

    Grecko sa po skrtoch v minimalnej mzde bude moct utesovat, ze zodpoveda ich produktivite aj v medzinarodnom porovnani, a ze prispeje k zamestnanosti.

    Slovinci a ich minimalna mzda (na ktoru pojde Grecko) rozhodne nie je na urovni Rwandy.

    PS: Vies ktora z krajin EU a OECD mala najvyssiu mieru nahrad v pripade dochodkov dosahujucu az 90% mzdy?

  • Ivan Lesay 29.02.2012 12:40

    bez externeho prostredia by sme sa teraz o greckej krize vobec nebavili, to dobre vies. a grecky podiel viny som naznacil v „nekompetentnosti politickych elit“. na blogu sa o tom x-krat pisalo, tak tie priciny nebudem dookola opakovat.
    v tomto clanku ide primarne o politiku a nechci, aby som ta podla tvojich komentarov zaradil medzi ekonomov, ktori riesia iba cisla, ale su slepi ku kontextu. zvratenie rastuceho trendu nie je to iste ako jeho budovanie. predsa len skusim pouzit priklady z ekonomie – ked do krajiny natecie mnozstvo kapitalu a potom z neho zrazu odtecie, tak to neznamena, ze krajina ostane na povodnej urovni. ked nafuknute ceny realitnych bublin klesnu na svoju „realnu“ hladinu (tak ako grecke mzdy v tvojom pripade), tak to neznamena navrat do povodneho stavu. tak, ako maju nahle zvraty v trendoch brutal dopad na hospodarstvo, tak maju drasticke skrty svoje zakonite dopady na vnimanie ludi a socialnu situaciu. a v grecku to nedopadne dobre, to mi ver.
    cize – tebe sa nemusi pacit ton, akym som to napisal, a nemusi sa ti pacit, ze namiesto ekonomickych fundamentov sa venujem vztahom v medzinarodnej politike. ale rozumies aspon uz tomu, co som chcel povedat?

  • Braňo 29.02.2012 13:37

    Ekonomovia nikdy neriesia iba cisla. To robia uctovnici.

    “bez externeho prostredia by sme sa teraz o greckej krize vobec nebavili, to dobre vies. ”

    Pointa je, ze neviem. Naopak vsak plati, ze bez greckeho pricinenia by sme sa teraz o greckej krize vobec nebavili.

    Ak uznavas, ze politicke elity zlyhali, tak uznavas, ze min. mzda je privysoka. Takze v com je problem? A takisto nehovorim, ze situacia sa da na nejaku povodnu uroven, nikto predsa nechce od grecka, aby zajtra splatilo cely svoj dlh 160% HDP. S bublinami to nema nic spolocne.

    A ze v grecku to nedopadne dobre?

    Vsak toto je argument, ktory nas dostal az do dnesnej situacie. Akekolvek znizenie vysoko nadpriemernych deficitov, min. miezd, atd. bolo urcitymi politickymi elitami ostrakizovane a demonizovane, az sme skoncili tam kde sme.

    Predstav si, ze grecko zbankrotuje a nikto mu nasledne na trhu nepozicia. Kde zoberie na tie mzdy? Co im odporucis? Natlacit tie peniaze a la Zimbabwe, len bo vraj inak to bude mat zle socialne dopady?

    Clanku rozumiem. Kedze 130 mld. nebude stacit, tak si z toho vyvodil, ze cielom je experiment, kolko krajina “znesie”. Toto nema vyznam komentovat.

  • pelu 29.02.2012 14:25

    toto nie je problem jednej krajiny, ale problem celosvetovy.. a tym problemom je system, v ktorom zijeme – kapitalizmus.
    ..netreba verit vsetkemu, co sa dopocujes v spravach.. hovori vam nieco slovny vyraz informacne embargo, respektive slovo propaganda?…
    grecko je pokusnym kralikom, a chcem podotknut – nie nahodnym.

  • Petr 29.02.2012 16:02

    Tezko muze nekdo chtit po ostatnich zemich, aby Recku pujcovaly neomezene a bez jakychkoliv zaruk. Mozna je pro Recko v teto situaci optimalni jednostranne prestat splacet dluhy, se vsemi dusledky, a EU by mohla byt kritizovana, pokud by vyslo najevo, ze na Recko vyviji neprimereny natlak, aby tak nepostupovalo. Existuji takove informace? Myslim, ze Recko ma dost volnosti v rozhodovani o tom, jakym zpusobem deficit snizi – mohlo by treba vyvlastnit korupcniky a kdyz by to nestacilo, tak i vsechny bohate k tomu. Pokud by takovemu postupu EU zabranila, mela by byt kritizovana prave za to, a ne za to, ze podminuje poskytnuti dalsich pujcek snizenim deficitu.

  • Petr 29.02.2012 16:18

    A dalsi otazka: nakolik je plosne snizeni mezd ekvivalentni devalvaci, kterou Recko nemuze provest z duvodu “zleho nastaveni Eurozony”? Kritizoval bys priblizne stejne devalvaci drachmy jako kritizujes snizeni mezd?

  • Dušan 29.02.2012 18:02

    Ojebabrala mačka vtáčka!
    Prechodná investícia kresťanského kapitalizmu v r. 45-89 (za účelom deratizácie reálneho socializmu) sa teraz, lide, do tvejch rukou navrácííí! Sa z toho o.ebete, vojaci…

  • Alexander Ač 29.02.2012 20:23

    Braňo,

    kam idú peniaze zo záchranných opatrení? Do reálnej ekonomiky, alebo na splácanie dlhu (bankám)?

    Ako je možné zároveň šetriť (ekonomická kontrakcia) a zároveň splácať dlhy (ekonomická expanzia)?

    Prečo nie je najlepším riešením odpis gréckeho dlhu? (Napríklad aj Nemcom bol po 2. sv. vojne dlh odpustený – mohli by byť ku Grékom trošku zhovievavejší)

    Mimo tému článku: súhlasíš s LTRO (ECB)? Ak áno, prečo, ak nie, prečo?

  • Ivan Lesay 29.02.2012 20:31

    vdaka vsetkym za podnety v tejto diskusii. budem na niektore reagovat vo svojom buducotyzdnovom komentari :-)

  • Braňo 29.02.2012 22:03

    Sano,
    splacanie dlhov je takisto kontrakcia. 130 mld. ide tak do ekonomiky ako aj na splatky dlhov.

    Odpis greckeho dlhu je riesenim, ale treba si uvedomit, ze:
    1. nesie so sebou naklady reputacie.
    2. grecko bude na cas vyradene z dlhopisoveho trhu, cize si nebude moct pozicat a bude musiet !!okamzite!! hospodarit s vyrovnanym rozpoctom.

    Suhlasim s LTRO. Skutocne mohlo bez toho dojst k udalosti ako lehman bros. – vid rastuci europsky ted spread. Dnes tu mame malu recesiu, inflacne ocakavania v EU su podpriemerom, cize monetarna politika by mala byt expanzivna. Precitaj si moje blogy, nominalny rast HDP v EU je pod 15rocnym priemerom. Akonahle sa dvihol nominalny dpoyt na priemer, tak ho Trichet stlacil spat, lebo bububu jadrova inflacia dosahovala drsnych 1,6%. No hotova inflacna katastrofa. Tak nech si vychutna teraz recesiu.

    Sucasnym riesenim pre grecko je dodrzat fiskalne dohody a ostatne je v rukach ECB, ktora by mala politiku uvolnit, cim sa do grecka vratia peniaze nielen priamo, ale aj nepriamo od turistov z celej EU. Pokial vsak ani ti turisti peniaze mat nebudu, tak to nema vyznam.

  • zii 29.02.2012 22:18

    a co grecka armada, tam sa skrty neplanuju? Tusim im EU krajiny dalej hojne dodavaju arzenal podla tucnych kontraktov z minulosti. Mozno sa je to strategicky vyhodnejse si hyckat grecku armadu aby nevyprodukovala nejaky konflikt so zahranicim.

    Ma niekto na to vysvetlenie?

  • pelu 29.02.2012 22:21

    su krajiny, ktore maju ovela vacsi dlh ako grecko.. tak preco prave grecko?
    a pozicka grecku za 6percentny urok?
    ..ine krajiny si poziciavaju za ovela mensi.. a pritom sa nemecku aj francuzsku peniaze vratia spat obratom, kedze grecko nakupuje zbrane od nich (a este ich berlin a pariz v tom vrelo podporuju!!!ved preco na tom nezarobit?)

    v skratke: potmehudsky tajny agent nasadeni americanmi , byvaly premier, papandreus podpisal diktaturu minimalne na nasledujucich 30 rokov, ked si raz do mesiaca prileti do aten trojka, aby fasisticky rozhodovala o tom, o com by mali rozhodovat grecki obcania..
    a ten druhy dosadeny potmehud, papademos, byvaly prezident europskej centralnej banky, aka nahodicka, ze ano?
    pri kazdom proteste v atenach pred budovou parlamentu sa nejakym zazracnym sposobom dostavaju do sprav zmanipulovane, resp. zavadzajuce informacie.. nikoho nezaujima, preco obycajni ludia tak horlivo protestuju, vsetci redaktori opisuju len to, ako sa prejavil vandalizmus na budovach.. nikoho vsak netrapi a nikto sa nepyta na pricinu – a tou je otazka ako moze obycajny clovek dosiahnut taky level hnevu a odporu? z akeho dovodu sa dokaze takto spravat? co je pricinou?
    ked neexistuje stat, ktory ta ochrani, ale len stat, ktory ta zapredal.. ked sa skolstvo rozpada .. zdravotnictvo je v ruinach..korupcne skandaly su na kazdodennom poriadku, ked kazdy tyzden vyhlasia novu dan, ktoru musis zaplatit, a plat rapidne klesa den po dni..uz nemozes dalej a vyjdes do ulic bojovat za svoje prava!.(zachvilu im naordinuju aj dan zo vzduchu, ktory dychaju..)pricom ceny su tam rapidne vysoke. uz davno nie je tajomstvom, ze grecko je najdrahsou krajinou europy.. pri podpise sa docasny pajac, pardon..premier papademos, zaviazal, ze minimalna mzda klesne na 450eur. co je, vážení, naozaj pod hranicou chudoby.
    (na porovnanie: pre greka je 600 eur asi tolko, ako pre slovaka 300.. predstavte si, ze by vam v jedno krasne rano znizili plat o 150eur. vyzili by ste? s platom 450eur v grecku je nemozne vyzit)

    a v neposlednom rade chcem poukazat aj na jeden z mnohych dovodov, kvoli ktorym si tuto krajinu vybrali na experimentovanie: najstarsie a najlepsie strukturovane odbory na celom svete. myslim, ze tu nie je potrebny komentar..

    z pohodlia obyvackoveho kresla sa mudruje najlahsie o protestoch v atenach.. ale ked vam po case vtrhne do obyvacky komando a az vtedy si uvedomite, ze kreslo vam zhabali, slobodu zobrali, a demokracia bude pojem neznamy, tak uz bude neskoro..

  • Alexander Ač 29.02.2012 22:28

    Braňo,

    s tym dlhom som to myslel tak, že ak niekomu požičiaš (plus úrok), tak ak ti ma dlžník tvoju požičku splatit aj s úrokom, potrebuje generovať ekonomicky rast. Čiže ak ho nútiš šetriť (čo znamená kontrakciu), a zároveň splácať dlh+úroky (čo vyžaduje expanziu), robíš z neho schizofrenika, podla mňa…

    1.) Greci už zankrotovali nikeľko-krát – radšej prídem o reputáciu a začnem znovu, ako byť v neustálej stágnácii/recesii/depresii

    2.) bude na čas vyradené, ale aspoň sa toho dlhu zbaví, pokiaľ viem, pomer dlhu/HDP neustále narastá, je to tak?

    Ad LTRO: podľa mňa program LTRO nemože zabraniť Lehman-like kolapsu nejakej bankovej inštitúcie – k tomu musí podľa mňa aj tak nevyhnutne dôjsť – poskytovanie lacných úverov na nákup (prakticky bezcenných) dlhopisov ničomu nepomôže, iba dočasne oddiali (a zhorší) krach do budúcnosti.

    Ak sa ekonómovia boja deflácie, prečo potom tá neudržteľná expanzia kreditu a dlhu, ktorá jej predchádza? V tomto súhlasím so Stevenom Keenom, že nemožno zbrániť dlhovej deflácii ani privátnym sektorom (napr. Greenspan, Friedman), ani vládnym sektorom (Krugman, Keynes?), ale jednoducho dlhovej deflácii zabrániť nemožno (Keen, Fischer, Minsky).

    Expanzívna monetárna politka? :-) Ja by som bol radšej, keby som si už mohol aspoň kúpiť byt 1+1 BEZ DLHU!! ;-)

    Vy ekonómovia by sa už mali na niečom dohodnúť, zoberte si príklad z klimatológov ;-)

  • Braňo 29.02.2012 23:42

    Nepotrebujes nutne ekonomicky rast. Ak mas splacat dlhy, tak to znamena setrit. Stat da menej penazi na armadu, a teda si menej pozicia (znizi deficit), resp. splati istinu ak uz nema deficit.

    Dlhu sa sice grecko zbavi, ale bude musiet okamzite zaviest vyrovnany rozpocet, co znamena opat len recesiu. Bez bankrotu moze tento proces rozlozit na viacero rokov.

    Ked bude ten krach bude oddialeny do dalekej buducnosti, povedzme o taky milion rokov, tak je to uplne v poriadku. Katastrofisti mozu milion rokov opakovat, ze len sa to oddialuje :)

    Pokial niekto zdrazie peniaze, tak je nevyhnutne, aby zlacneli, lebo bez likvidity sa biznis robit neda. Nie nahodou sa veci v EU zhorsili po zvyseni urokovych sadzieb v minulom lete.

    Lacne uvery sa poskytuju kvoli likvidite, nie kvoli nakupom dlhopisov per se. Pokial bude ECB pokracovat v tom, co robi, tak dlhopisy bezcenne teda nebudu. Ak by boli inak bezcenne, tak preco ich trh kupuje? Preco nekupuje a nedava do zalohy ECBcke ine aktiva, resp. dlhopisy inych krajin?

    “Ak sa ekonómovia boja deflácie, prečo potom tá neudržteľná expanzia kreditu a dlhu, ktorá jej predchádza?”

    A preco potom ta neudrzatelna expanzia taveneho syra, ktora jej predchadza?
    A preco potom ta neudrzatelna expanzia vychodu Slnka, ktora jej predchadza?

    Zakladnou chybou je rozmyslat tak, ze ak nieco predchadza inemu, tak je to automaticky pricina toho ineho. V jednom blogu som uviedol pekny priklad Australie, kde k ziadnej velkej recesii neprislo napriek tomu, ze zazila rovnaky boom uverov, ci rast cien nehnutelnosti ako Spanielsko.

    Pockaj, budem hadat, Australiu brutalna recesia este len caka, je to nevyhnutne, neudrzatelne. Skor ci neskor to pride. A aj keby to neprislo, tak si jedno pamatajte: ono to pride a bude to este horsie :)

    Podstatne Sano nie je, ci suhlasis so Stevenom Keenom, ale ci rozumies tomu, co pise, a ci s tym dokazes odborne polemizovat ;)

  • Braňo 29.02.2012 23:44

    A este k tomu bytu. Vsak kludne setri a potom si ho kup. Bohuzial, niektore veci su jednoducho vzacnejsie a drahsie. Aj ja by som si chcel kupit byt, auto, a chatu hned a bez pozicky, ale zdroje su obmedzene.

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 0:09

    :-)

    obaval som sa, ze to skonci na tom, že “katastrofisti” hento, a “katastrofiisti” tamto…

    zatial vela zdaru (ale hlevne stastia)… ;-)

    Ad byt – škoda, že “cany” bytov rastu n-nasobne rychlejsie ako platy… ale nevadi, mame tu lacne uvery, no nekup to!!! :-)

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 0:11

    A ano Austráliu aj Kanadu (aj Čínu) prasknutie hypotekarnej bubliny ešte len čaká… bububu! ;-)

  • Braňo 01.03.2012 12:39

    Ceny bytov na Slovensku zacali rast nie kvoli lacnym uverom, ale kvoli uverom vseobecne. Dokial hypoteky neboli dostupne, tak cena bytov bola nizsie, ale ludia nemali cash, aby si byty kupili.

    Vsimni si, ze najvacsi medzirocny psycho narast cien bytov bol v 2008, ked boli urokove sadzby najvyssie. A ceny bytov odvtedy klesaju (uz stvrty rok).

    Samozrejme mozme zacat ceny bytov regulovat, uz len staci vybavit cloveka, co ta posunie potom v poradovniku trosicku vyssie, aby si sa k nemu dostal ;-)

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 15:31

    Ano, klesajú – veď bodaj by nie, keď sa za obdobie 2005-2008 takmer zdvojnásobili, a banky ochotne poskytovali úvery, veď prečo aj nie.

    A ceny ešte výrazne klesnú, stále sú v stratosfére. Ceny bytov netreba regulovat, zreguluje ich deflácia, aj keby sa ECB rozkrájala ;-)

    V dalších rokoch ropný zlom zabezpečí ďalší pokles cien nehnutelnosti na perifériach, pretože stále menej ľudí bude mať peniaze, aby dochádzali za prácou (najmä na autách)… ale to už bude iný príbeh…

  • Braňo 01.03.2012 16:55

    Porazit deflaciu je pre ECB to najjednoduchsie. Jedine, ze by dosiel papier a toner ;-)

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 17:36

    Ad deflácia a tlačenie…

    Braňo, to je (klasický?) omyl, čo tak trošku finančnej histórie?

    Alebo budeme ignorovať dlhopisové trhy???

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 17:39

    Prave som našiel update k vývoju gréckej ekonomiky:

    “Greek Economy Suffers Record Collapse In February”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-economy-suffers-record-collapse-february

  • Braňo 01.03.2012 17:40

    Ekonomicku historiu mam velmi rad, rad sa necham poucit. A co s tym maju dlhopisove trhy?

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 19:16

    No začal by som tym, že dlhopisovy trh funguje (najmä) vďaka tomu, že peniaze maju hodnotu, spravne?

    No a ked začneš umelo vhanať likviditu do obehu, prispievas k devalvacii meny, a teda k jej znehodnocovaniu (a teda aj k znehodnocovaniu dlhu), a teda skor či neskôr dojde ku zvyšeniu vynosov na dlhopisovych trhov, nie? Čiže zase, deflácia, napriek tomu, ze proti nej “bojuješ”…

    A ja samozrejme viem, že primatnym cielom zasahov bank je ZNIZENIE vynosov dlhopisov, ako sa to DOČASNE podarilo pomocou LTRO v Taliansku a Španielsku, očakávam ale, že vynosy bondov v ITA a SPA čoskoro vyskočia smerom hore – a scenar ako v Grecku bude nasledovať aj tu…

    No a finančna história nas predsa uči, že úverové bubliny na trhu vždy skončili defláciou, či nie? Mam hladat nejake clanky? ;-)

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 19:50

    Samozrejme defláciou myslím v tomto prípade obeživo+úvery (kredit)… inflácia a deflácia v zmysle nárastu a poklesu cien sú potom dosledkom pohybu obeživa+kreditu…

  • Alexander Ač 01.03.2012 19:51

    Úvod do tematiky asi tu: http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/Lectures/Index.htm#FE

  • Tomas .. Husar 02.03.2012 8:07

    ohladne tohto:
    pelu 29.02.2012 22:21

    su krajiny, ktore maju ovela vacsi dlh ako grecko.. tak preco prave grecko?

    Ziaden ekonomicky parameter nemozno vnimat izolovane. Skus si to predstavit na fungovani jedne rodiny. Rodina moze byt zadlzena, lebo napriklad kupili byt, auto alebo zariadenie do rodinnej firmy. Dolezita nie je vyska dlhu v karbovancoch alebo drachmach, ale vyska dlhu porovnavana s skutocnymi a potencialnymi prijmami.

  • Braňo 02.03.2012 16:18

    Dlhpisovy trh funguje, pretoze existuje dopyt a ponuka po dlhopisoch.

    Ak zacnes vhanat likviditu (nie umelo – aj modely freebankingu predpokladaju, ze ak pride ku zvysenemu dopytu po likvidite, tak system automaticky zabezpeci zvysenie ponuky), tak prichadza k hospodarskemu rastu a k inflacii. Pokial bude inflacia privelka, tak uroky zas vzrastu, a inflacia klesne. Ale nechapem, preco by muselo dojst k deflacii.

    Ja hovorim, ze primarnym cielom NIE su vynosy z dlhopisov, ale znizenie medzibankovych sadzieb.
    http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-14/markets/30514934_1_bond-yields-euro-summit-lending

    Kedze inflacia rastie uz sto rokov okolo 2%, tak je jasne, ze uverove expanzie nekoncia deflaciami. Pricom kauzalita je otocena: deflacia konci uverovou expanziou ;-)

  • Braňo 02.03.2012 16:30

    “Samozrejme defláciou myslím v tomto prípade obeživo+úvery (kredit)… inflácia a deflácia v zmysle nárastu a poklesu cien sú potom dosledkom pohybu obeživa+kreditu…”

    Cize v podstate hovoris, ze narast rychlosti poskytovania uverov konci poklesom tejto rychlosti. Nuz cielom centralnej banky urcite nie je konstantny prudky rast menovych agregatov do nekonecna. Ked sa situacia stabilizuje, tak centralna banka pochopitelne spomali rychlost rastu penaznej zasoby.

    PS: uvod do tematiky som absolvoval. Naco presne som sa mal zamerat?

  • Alexander Ač 02.03.2012 16:50

    Ano, dopyt a ponuka funguje (po dlhopisoch) preto, lebo dlh ma hodnotu – ak by ju nemal, neexistuje ani to prve, takže v tom by sme sa mali zhodnúť ;-)

    - o tej umelej likvidite som hovoril preto, lebo QE1, QE2, LTRO (a čo ja viem ake dalšie bail-outy), či to nepatri medzi umelu likviditu?

    No to tvrdite vy, že “tlačením peňazí” zabezpečíš hospodársky rast, ja tvrdím, že teraz to už neplatí (a) príliš veľa dlhu a b) koniec lacnej energie) — na počiatku priemyselnej revolúcie to samozreme platilo…

    - ceny ropy sa pohybuju na rekordnej úrovni (tj inflácia?), ekonomika v EU padá do recesie, takže ako z toho von? Podľa mňa nijako, nedá sa…

    Ad 2 % inflácia a 100 rokov, k tomu je dobry dento článok

    “Huge Problem With Bernanke’s 2% Inflation Target Explained in Pictures”: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/huge-problem-in-bernankes-2-inflation.html

    A čo sa týka toho Keena – tak som myslel, že z neho je jasné, že kontrakciu kreditu nemožno “stabilizovať” ďalšími úvermi, tak, ako sa dnes deje… či to tam nebolo? ;-)

    A ešte aby som to zhrnul – namyslím si, že je dobrým riešením prílišného dlhu vytváranie ešte vačšieho dlhu, ale že je riešením nechať tento (zlý) dlh jednoducho skolabovať (t.j. deflácia)…

  • Braňo 02.03.2012 18:45

    Co konkretne je na tom umele? Operacie na volnom trhu s dlhopismi s cielom znizit urok nie su umele, ale QE uz je umele?

    a – prilis vela dlhu znamena prilis vela uspor. Kde si niekto poziciava, tam druhy nutne setri.
    b – dnes uz nie je americka ani europska ekonomika az tak citliva na cenu ropy.

    Co sa tyka toho clanku, tak to je dost zle.
    1. Autor ukazuje, ze realny (ocisteny o inflaciu) disponibilny prijem na hlavu dlhdobo rastie (inak povedane – aj napriek inflacii realne prijmy dlhodobo rastu).
    2. Ten Income gap NEznamena, ze mzdy nedrzia krok s inflaciou, ale ze nominalne mzdy rastu rovnako rychlo ako inflacia. Cize realna mzda stagnuje.
    3. Ano, odchylka od trendu je sposobena aj politikou FEDu, ktora je prilis restriktivna.

    Kontrakcia kreditu nie je nic ine ako navysovanie kapitalu bank. Cize expanzivnou politikou pochopitelne je mozne nominalny rast hdp stabilizovat.

    Monetarna expanzia a inflacia naopak dlh znizuje, ide o tzv. monetizaciu dlhu. Naopak pointou Fisherovej debt deflacie je, ze deflacia zvysuje realny dlh a preto klesa output. Bud ty alebo Keen si to musite ujasnit ;-)

  • Alexander Ač 02.03.2012 19:44

    Braňo…. ajajaj, než sa pohneme dalej, najprv mi musíš vystvetliť toto:

    “a – prilis vela dlhu znamena prilis vela uspor. Kde si niekto poziciava, tam druhy nutne setri.” – odkial máš tuto rovnicu?

    Takže čo PRESNE sa stane, ked si ja vezmem hypotéku a zadlžim sa?

  • Alexander Ač 02.03.2012 20:17

    A podporim to tymto textom (od Keena):

    Non-economists might expect professional economists to pay great heed to these indicators—after all, surely private debt affects the economy? However, the dominant approach to economics—known as “Neoclassical Economics” —ignores them completely, on the a priori grounds that the aggregate level of private debt doesn’t matter: only its distribution can have macroeconomic impacts.

    The argument is that a rise in debt merely indicates a transfer of spending power from a saver to a borrower. The debtor’s spending power rises, but saver’s spending power also falls, so in the aggregate there will only be a macroeconomic effect if there is a very large difference in behaviour between the saver and borrower. Therefore only the distribution of debt matters, not its level or rate of change.

    US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke provided precisely this rationale to explain why neoclassical economists ignored Irving Fisher’s “debt-deflation” explanation of the Great Depression (Fisher 1933), and he also asserted that the differences in behaviour between saver and borrower could not be large enough to explain the Great Depression. Zvyšok tu: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/01/28/economics-in-the-age-of-deleveraging/

  • Braňo 04.03.2012 11:21

    Odkial mam tu rovnicu? Je to uctovna identita platiaca pre globalnu ekonomiku. Je prednotlive krajiny vsak zalezi v akom pomere je dlh zahranicny a domaci.

    Dlhova deflacia funguje cez kanal deflacie: najprv pride deflacia, potom sa zvysi deflaciou dlh, pridu bankroty, klesa HDP, zase prichadza deflacia, a tak dokola.

    Argumentovat velkymi dlhmi a debt deflaciou vsak dava zmysel len vtedy, ked prichadza deflacia. Bez deflacie je vyska dlhu v tomto kontexte irelevantna.

    A kedze centralne banky nedovolia ziadnu hlbsiu deflaciu a velmi jednoducho nad nou zvitazia natlacenim papierikov, tak debt-deflaciu mozme odlozit na bok.

    Navyse Fisherova debt-deflacia empicky nedokaze vysvetlit Velku Depresiu. Literatura ukazuje, ze mechanizmom nebol presun bohatstva medzi dlznikmi a veritelmi, ale vyrazny pokles ponuky penazi v obehu v kombinacii s rigidnymi mzdami. Cele to zacalo hromadenim zlatych rezerv v niektorych krajinach a koncilo zvysovanim realnej urokovej sadzby v dosledku !ocakavanej! deflacie (u Fishera islo o neocakavanu sokovu deflaciu, cize realny urok sa nemenil, a preto bol kanal krizy uplne iny-nemonetarny).

    Dnes sa Fisherovou teoriou scasti inspiruje mozno Bernankeho akcelerator, ci Kiyotakiho uverove cykly, kde sokove znizenie financneho bohatstva (net worth) sposobuje, ze ludia uz nemozu pouzit tolko bohatstva ako kolateral pri uveroch, cim klesaju investicie, atd. Ale to nie je debt-deflacia.

    “Takže čo PRESNE sa stane, ked si ja vezmem hypotéku a zadlžim sa?”

    Uf, tak to by som potreboval vediet asi dalsich x parametrov. Je to ako opytat sa, co presne sa stane, ked ja dostanem defekt. Nuz ide o defekt na bicykli alebo na aute? Stoji to auto, alebo ide 200 km/h? :)

    Vo vseobecnosti, ked si zoberies uver, tak banka si na stranu aktiv napise uver a na stranu pasiv ti pripise na ucet virtualne peniaze. Kedze banke nepribudol ziadny cash, tak sa znizili jej rezervy. Teraz mozu nastat rozne situacie:
    1. Bud mala banka nadbytocne rezervy a aj po pozicani nema problem.
    2. Alebo ma banka nedostatok rezerv a musi ich od niekal ziskat. Moze ich ziskat od vkladatelov, cim banka dosiahne pozadovane rezervy. Alebo druhou moznostou je ziskat cash od inych bank. Pokial ale ziadna banka nema nadbytok rezerv a ani centralna banka nie je ochotna zvysit ponuku obeziva, tak ti banka uver nemoze dat.

  • Alexander Ač 04.03.2012 17:03

    Takže logicky dosledok rovnice (dlh jedneho je úspora druheho) plati, že čím viac dlhu, tým viac úspor, hej? Čiže čím viac dlhu, tým lepšie :-)

    to je totiž velmi zaujimave, prečo potom v globale realne HDP rástlo pomalšie (tušim 3-4 %), ako globalne zadlžovanie (v rokoch 2002-2010)? (cca 11 %).

    Ako vidím, tak Keen nerozumie ekonomii, napriek tomu bol jeden z mala, ktory už v roku 2005 upozornoval na prichadzajuce problemy…

    už ale aspon trochu rozumiem tomu, prečo suhlasis so zasahmi centralnch bank, ktore znamenaju vyšši dlh a vyššie riziko v systeme. Na dôsledku nebudeme musiet dlho cakat…

    Sano

  • Braňo 04.03.2012 23:28

    1. Viac uspor predsa neznamena “lepsie”. Lepsie je viac spotreby.
    2. Preco rastlo realne HDP pomalsie ako globalne zadlzovanie? Nuz lebo:
    a – rast HDP zavisi aj od inych faktorov, i ked uspory su dolezite.
    b – ekonomiky, ktore najviac ovplyvnuju rast celosvetoveho HDP, teda USA a EU, ktore tvoria polovicu svetoveho HDP, sporia najmenej. Napr. Cina sice spori vela a aj vela rastie, ale ked tvori len 10% svetoveho HDP, tak ho velmi neovplyvnuje.

    Zasahy centralnych bank znamenaju vyssi dlh? To je z nejakeho konspiracneho dokumentu?

    Su dva sposoby ako moze centralna banka zvysit mnozstvo penazi v obehu. Bud zvysi bankam rezervy alebo zvysi mnozstvo obeziva cez nakup statnych dlhopisov. Do 2008 (do credit easingu) sa 95% penazi dostavalo do obehu cez nakup statnych dlhopisov za vytlaceny cash, nie cez uvery.

    Keen je jednym z ludi, ktori neustale opakuju, ze pride kriza. Potom, ked kriza pride, tak zacnu kricat, ze oni to predpovedali. Pricom dovody krizy, ktore uvadzaju, su mimo realitu. Vela ludi sa takto chvali a robi si biznis na tom, ze predpovedali krizu, pricom ich teorie si navzajom odporuju :)

    Keen tiez predikoval kolaps ekonomiky cez sektor nehnutelnosti v Australii a tuto stavku prehral. Tym sa asi velmi nechvali. A ja som uz pisal, preco sa to v Australii nestalo a v akom pripade sa to moze stat.

  • Nejde o Grécko | Blog JeToTak.sk 07.03.2012 10:41

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  • Lester 09.02.2017 19:32

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