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Spoločná menová politika a kríza v eurozóne

O mylnej interpretácii vzniku krízy v eurozóne (s výnimkou Grécka) ako následku nezodpovednej rozpočtovej politiky dotknutých štátov som písal už v minulých príspevkoch (1,2).  Podobne sa tejto téme sa venoval aj Ivan Lesay.

Vo svojich príspevkoch som argumentoval, že nárast  dlhu bol vo väčšine prípadov výsledkom nepriaznivého ekonomického vývoja, ktorý bol vyústením dlhodobej štrukturálnej nerovnováhy v rámci eurozóny.  Dnes sa pozriem na to, ako prispela k tejto nerovnováhe politika Európskej centrálnej banky.

Než tak urobím, zopakujem v krátkosti hlavné myšlienky z predchádzajúcich príspevkov.  Pritom si pomôžem troma grafmi z príspevku na blogu Paula Krugmana, ktorý sa venuje práve kríze v eurozóne.

Prvý graf zobrazuje priemer verejného dlhu Grécka, Írska, Portugalska, Španielska a Talianska v pomere k hrubému domácemu produktu. Z grafu vyplýva, že priemerný dlh týchto štátov v predkrízovom období prudko klesal a razantne vzrástol až po vypuknutí svetovej finančnej krízy. Najmä v prípade Španielska a Írska ťažko možno hovoriť o rozpočtovej nezodpovednosti, nakoľko tieto štáty dosahovali pred krízou rozpočtové prebytky a ich relatívne dlhy patrili k najnižším v eurozóne. Tvrdenie, že za súčasnými problémami v eurozóne sú vysoké dlhy, si tak vo väčšine prípadov zamieňa následok s príčinou.

Druhý graf ukazuje výrazný nárast prebytkov bežného účtu v Nemecku a naopak nárast deficitov na periférii. Za týmto vývojom bola neschopnosť Nemecka investovať  vysoké domáce úspory v rámci Nemecka a následné značné kapitálove toky z Nemecka na perifériu.

Tretí graf ukazuje nárast cenovej hladiny periférie v pomere k nemeckej úrovni – inými slovami stratu konkurencieschopnosti periférie. Tento vývoj bol následkom prehriatych ekonomík a bublinového rastu periférie, ku ktorému prispeli  práve kapitálové toky z Nemecka  (a z jadra eurozóny všeobecne).  Po prepuknutí svetovej finančnej krízy a spľasnutí bubliny čelí väčšina ekonomík periférie ťažkej recesií a problému obnovy konkurencieschopnosti.

Ako k tomuto vývoju prispelo euro a spoločná menová politika? Na posúdenie tejto otázky je možné použiť tzv. Taylorove pravidlo, podľa ktorého krátkodobá nominálna úroková sadza centrálnej banky (i) má reagovať na odchýlky produktu (y) od potenciálneho produktu (y*) a inflácie (π) od inflačného cieľa (π*), kde r je rovnovážna reálna úroková miera a a,b pozitívne konštanty vyjadrujúce dôležitosť inflácie a produkčnej medzery pre rozhodovanie centrálnej banky.

i = r + π + a(y – y*) + b(π – π*)

Toto pravidlo teda hovorí, ako sa má centrálna banka zachovať pri napĺňaní jej dvoch hlavných cieľov – inflačného cieľa a stabilizácie ekonomickej aktivity na úrovni potenciálu ekonomiky.  Ak teda napríklad inflácia prekročí cieľ, centrálna banka by mala reagovať zvýšením sadzby. Podobne ak ekonomická aktivita prekročí potenciál ekonomiky, sadzba centrálnej banky by sa mala zvýšiť. Keďže  je však ekonomika pod potenciálom za normálnych okolností spojená s dezinfláciou, a naopak ekonomika nad potenciálom so zrýchľujúcou sa infláciou, sledovanie oboch cieľov nemusí byť v konflikte.

Aplikovanie tohto pravidla v prípade eurozóny je však problematické. ECB  totiž sleduje infláciu a vývoj ekonomiky eurozóny ako celku a nie pre jednotlivé krajiny osobitne. Pokiaľ však eurozóna nie je optimálna menová oblasť, ekonomický vývoj v jednotlivých krajinách môže byť značne rozdielny. V tom prípade ECB nemôže nastaviť menovú politiku optimálne, nakoľko jej úroková sadzba bude pre časť krajín príliš vysoká a pre druhú časť príliš nízka.

Presne na tento problém sa pozrela Fernanda Nechio z FEDu v San Franciscu, pričom aplikovala verziu Tayloroveho pravidla za účelom stanovenia optimálnej sadzby osobitne pre jadro a perifériu eurozóny. Tieto optimálne sadzby následne porovnala so skutočnou sadzbou ECB.

Ako graf znázorňuje, skutočná sadzba ECB po vzniku eura viac-menej sledovala optimálnu sadzbu pre jadro eurozóny, ale pre perifériu (Portugalsko, Írsko, Grécko a  Španielsko) bola táto politika príliš voľná. Nie je preto vôbec prekvapujúce , že na periférii eurozóny došlo k nadmernej úverovej expanzii, prehrievaniu ekonomiky spojenému so značným rastom cien a miezd a bublinovým vývojom.

Podobne je z grafu zrejmé, že dnes je situácia opačná. Vzhľadom na hlbokú recesiu na periférii je súčasná sadzba ECB pre perifériu príliš vysoká. Pokiaľ by tieto krajiny mali vlastné meny a vlastnú menovú politiku, obnovenie konkurencieschopnosti  a ekonomické oživenie  by sa dalo relatívne ľahko dosiahnuť pomocou oslabenia meny voči euru a uvoľnenia menovej politiky.

V rámci eurozóny je však úprava nominálneho kurzu nemožná  a keďže ECB nedovolí vyššiu infláciu v rámci jadra, prenáša bremeno nastolenia rovnováhy práve na perifériu. Pokles cien a miezd periférie môže však nastať len za cenu udržiavania týchto ekonomík pod potenciálom  a s vysokou nezamestnanosťou

Táto politika môže byť však krátkozraká . Ak by nastolenie rovnováhy v rámci eurozóny nastalo vo väčšej miere pomocou vyššej inflácie v jadrových krajinách eurozóny, tlak na pokles ekonomík periférie by sa znížil. A silnejšie ekonomiky periférie by zároveň zvýšili pravdepodobnosť  úspešnej fiškálnej konsolidácie v týchto krajinách.

Z uvedeného vyplýva, že obraz periférie eurozóny ako rozpočtových hriešnikov trpiacich za svoje činy je do veľkej miery (s výnimkou Grécka) mylný.  Naopak, ich terajšie problémy sú skôr spôsobené nevhodnosťou spoločnej menovej politiky pre tieto krajiny. Podobne ekonomické utrpenie periférie nie je vôbec nevyhnutné. ECB  by mohla zvýšiť inflačný cieľ v eurozóne a uvoľniť menovú politiku, čím by uľahčila nastolenie rovnováhy v rámci eurozóny a podporila ekonomiky periférie. V opačnom prípade môžu krajiny periférie prísť k záveru, že pri súčasnej politike ECB je cena za členstvo v eurozóne privysoká.

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Komentáre (1 250)

  • Braňo 08.03.2012 10:04

    Dva komenty:
    1. Narast cenovej hladiny neukazuje na stratu konkurencieschopnosti, kedze sam o sebe neobsahuje informaciu o relativnej produktivite k jadru eurozony.

    Bublinovy vyvoj na periferii nie je samozrejmy, to by musela mat kazda krajina na svete s fixnym kurzom ku dolaru bubliny vsade mozne.

    Je normalne, ze menej vykonne ekonomiky (akou je aj Slovenska) budu pri fixnom kurze konvergovat cez inflaciu (a vyssi rast HDP). To ale same o sebe neznamena stratu konkurencieschopnosti.

    2. Pred par dnami sme pozerali na ten graf Taylorovho pravidla pre Eurozonu a nevedeli sme sa dohodnut, ci je to estimacia, alebo len surovo zobrali tie koeficienty. Lebo by bolo trochu divne, keby mali dvojmandatovy FED a jednomandatova ECB uplne rovnaky ciel.

    ECB nemusi zvysovat inflacny ciel, staci, aby cielovala nominalny produkt. Problem nevidim v nevhodnosti politiky pre periferne krajiny, ale vo vseobecnej nevhodnosti cielovania inflacie (a ktoru vobec cieluje: headline, deflator, …?).

    Ale v podstate ten fed-clanok nehovori nic nove. Jedno pravidlo nie je vhodne pre vsetkych, ci uz su to staty eurozony alebo USA. Ibaze v USA maju jednotnu fiskalnu politiku a vyssiu mobilitu prace.

  • Milan Vaňko 08.03.2012 11:26

    Vdaka za komentar.

    (1) Samozrejme ak dochadza k realnej konvergencii, apreciacia realneho kurzu nie je nic zle. Lenze dnes vieme, ze vo viacerych krajinach periferie doslo takisto k prehrievaniu ekonomiky a to je uz problem.

    Podobne, ak sa nemylim, pri Balassa-Samuelson efekte nedochadza ceteris paribus k narastaniu schodkov obchodnej bilancie.

    Ale samozrejme beriem argument, ze ak by sme nic ine nevedeli, rozdiel v cenovom vyvoji moc nehovori.

    (2)
    “Bublinovy vyvoj na periferii nie je samozrejmy, to by musela mat kazda krajina na svete s fixnym kurzom ku dolaru bubliny vsade mozne.”
    Nemyslim, ze som nieco take tvrdil. Ak by menova politika USA bola prisnejsia ako domaca monetarna politika, zafixovanie kurzu bude posobit ako inflacna kotva.

    Tu ide o argument, ze spolocna menova poltika bola naopak prilis volna pre periferiu, dochadzalo k prehrievaniu ekonomiky a v takejto situacii je vznik bublin pravdepodobnejsi.

    (3) Suhlasim, ten FED clanok nie je moc v tomto rigorozny, to pravidlo je len kalibrovane. Ale myslim, ze to tu nie az take podstatne. Tak ci tak odhadnute pravidlo nebude v skutocnosti vyjadrovat optimalnu politiku, ale len nejaku priemernu reakcnu funkciu ECB. A aj pri tychto kalibrovanych hodnotach, “optimalna” sadzba viacmenej kopiruje aktualnu sadzbu.

    Ale podstatna myslienka je tu tato: Ak ECB priklada nejaku vahu inflacii a output gapu vo svojom rozhodovani pre celu eurozonu (a povazuje tieto vahy za optimalne), aka by bola jej poltiika, ak by mohla nastavit rozne sadzby na periferii a a v jadre. A kym pre jadro aktualna sadzba bola viacmenej ok, pre periferiu nie.

    A tu je podstata problemu.

    (4) “Problem nevidim v nevhodnosti politiky pre periferne krajiny, ale vo vseobecnej nevhodnosti cielovania inflacie (a ktoru vobec cieluje: headline, deflator, …?).”
    Ale to je problem pre vsetky centralne banky, nie len ECB. V eurozone vsak mame dodatocny problem a to ze ma daleko od optimalnej menovej oblasti. Myslim, ze aj keby ECB pred krizou cielova agregatny nominalny produkt pre eurozonu, na fakte ze menova politika by bola pre periferiu prilis volna by to nic nezmenilo.

    (5) “Ale v podstate ten fed-clanok nehovori nic nove. Jedno pravidlo nie je vhodne pre vsetkych, ci uz su to staty eurozony alebo USA. Ibaze v USA maju jednotnu fiskalnu politiku a vyssiu mobilitu prace.”
    Ano a lepsie korelovanie soky. Cize v konecnom dosledku jednotna menova politika v USA nevyvolava taku divergenciu ako v pripade periferie eurozony.

    Je to nieco nove a prekvapujuce? Nie, to vieme uz od 60. rokov od Mundella. Ale preco sa teda v politickej sfere hovori len o rozpoctovej (ne)zodpovednosti v suvislosti s krizou v eurozone? A preto tento prispevok.

  • Braňo 08.03.2012 15:18

    (2) “Tu ide o argument, ze spolocna menova poltika bola naopak prilis volna pre periferiu, dochadzalo k prehrievaniu ekonomiky a v takejto situacii je vznik bublin pravdepodobnejsi.”

    Ono sa da argument otocit. Krajiny fixujuce kurz si musia velmi strazit deficit bezneho uctu, pretoze ho financuju z rezerv. A ak by dosli rezervy, tak by museli prejst na plavajuci kurz. U perifernych statov eurozony takyto tlak neexistuje.

    Ergo aj ked je monetarna politika vsade rovnaka (napr. zlaty standard), tak krajiny fixujuce kurz su nutene fiskalnou politikou vyrovnavat deficity bezneho uctu. Periferia eurozony ma vsak luxus navyse.

    Ja teda nevidim problem v tom, ze by monetarna politika ECB nebola vhodna pre periferne krajiny, ale v tom, ze sa robi zla fiskalna politika v eurozone.

    Nemecko robi fiskalnu politiku s cielom drzat dolu mzdy a robit prebytky a naopak Grecko, ci Portugalsko na druhej strane nie su ochotne ist s rozpoctovym deficitom v case konjunktury ani len pod 3%, nie este ze by mali prebytky.

    Cize obe strany musia ustupit, a trochu narovnat bilanciu. Sever prestane subvencovat konkurencieschopnost a juh naopak zdani importy a znormalni rozpocty.

    (4) Ked pozriem na ceny a HDP napr. v Spanielsku, tak sa mi skor vidi, ze politika ECB bola po 2006 prilis restriktivna. Priehrievanie nevidim:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=4HE

    Ak by sme mali restriktivnejsiu politiku, tak je to horsie pre vsetkych. Asymetria sokov tiez podla mna nie je problem, vid kriza chytila vsetkych rovnako. Ibaze cylkus sa nam rozisiel kvoli fiskalnym problemom.

    Pri absencii fiskalnej unie sa musi dodrziavat fiskalna disciplina, lebo inak sa EMU rozpadne.
    Prave z dovodu neexistencie fiskalnej unie sa tolko hovori o rozpoctovej zodpovednosti v eurozone.

  • Sitting Bull 08.03.2012 15:20

    dalsi podnetny clanok, je dobre, ze aspon niekde v slov. medialnom priestore si v makroekonomii profesionalne nezainteresovany clovek moze precitat nazory ludi, ktori sa netradicne na tamojsie pomery snazia hovorit k veci a podnecovat odbornejsiu diskusiu, kedze lokalne mainstreamove media su vacsinou dlhodobo preplnene tym istym povrchnym ideologicko-politickym gulasom

  • Milan Vaňko 08.03.2012 20:28

    Brano:

    “Ono sa da argument otocit. Krajiny fixujuce kurz si musia velmi strazit deficit bezneho uctu, pretoze ho financuju z rezerv. A ak by dosli rezervy, tak by museli prejst na plavajuci kurz. U perifernych statov eurozony takyto tlak neexistuje.”
    “Ergo aj ked je monetarna politika vsade rovnaka (napr. zlaty standard), tak krajiny fixujuce kurz su nutene fiskalnou politikou vyrovnavat deficity bezneho uctu.”

    Nie nevyhnutne. Ak su schodky na beznom ucte kompenzovane prebytkami na kapitalovom ucte, rezervy sa nemenia. A kedze v suvislosti s bublinou na periferii hovorime o kapitalovych tokoch z jadra, to bude asi nas pripad.

    Ak by periferia nemala euro, ale meny pevne fixovane na euro, najskor by sme mali menove krizy podobne tym v juhovychodnej Azii. Podstatny rozdiel oproti sucasnej situacii by bol, ze by bolo menej nakladne prejst na floating a obnovit tak konkurencieschopnost. Podobne, *ak by si tieto krajiny poziciavali vo vlastnej mene*, da sa argumentovat, ze by mali dnes mensie problemy si poziciavat pri prijatelnej urokovej miere vzhladom na moznu existenciu veritela poslednej instancie (o clanku De Grauweho som tu uz pisal: http://blog.jetotak.sk/kriticka-ekonomia/2011/05/31/paradox-doveryhodnosti-a-spolocne-eurobondy-1/).

    Ale preco tu hovorime o fixnom kurze? Ak diskutujeme Taylorove pravidlo, implicitne hovorime o plavajucom kurze ako alternative.

    Samozrejme, nemozeme vediet, aky by bol vyvoj v pripade tejto alternative, ale domnievam sa, ze by periferia len tazko mala problemy sucasnych rozmerov.

    Za prve, ceteris paribus volne plavajuci kurz bude ciastocne izolovat realnu ekonomiku od efektu prilevu kapitalovych tokov, nakolko posilnenie kurzu negativne posobi na cisty export a znizuje agregatny dopyt.

    Pri eure tento kurzovy efekt neexistuje, agregatny dopyt rastie teda rychlejsie a dochadza k vacsiemu prehrievaniu ekonomiky, rastu cien, a vyssej pravdepodobnosti vzniku bublin.

    Za druhe, *ak by centralne banky periferie mali podobnu reakcnu funkciu ako ECB”, ceteris paribus ich sadzby by boli vyssie ako aktualna sadzba ECB , co by znova posobilo ako brzda na prehrievanie ekonomiky, rast cien a bubliny.

    Ak by aj nejaka nerovnovaha a bublina vznikla, da sa predpokladat, ze by problemy boli mensie a vdaka plavajucemu kurzu a volnejsej menovej politike po prepuknuti krizy by sa nerovnovahy lahko napravili a realna ekonomika by bola v lepsom stave. Podobne, pri silnejsej ekonomike a pri existencii veritela poslednej instancie, fiskalne problemy by neboli tak vazne ako dnes.

    “Nemecko robi fiskalnu politiku s cielom drzat dolu mzdy a robit prebytky a naopak Grecko, ci Portugalsko na druhej strane nie su ochotne ist s rozpoctovym deficitom v case konjunktury ani len pod 3%, nie este ze by mali prebytky.”

    O tomto som uz tu pisal:
    Áno, Grécko konzistentne dosahovalo vysoké rozpočtové schodky pri už aj tak vysokom štátnom dlhu. Írsko a Španielsko však dosahovali v období pred finančnou krízou rozpočtové prebytky a verejný dlh oboch krajín bol hlboko pod priemerom Európskej únie. Portugalsko síce vykazovalo rozpočtové deficity, verejný dlh sa ale stále nelíšil od európskeho priemeru a bol stále nižší, než v Nemecku a Francúzsku.
    Čo z toho vyplýva? Keby v období pred krízou bola bývala existovala prísna rozpočtová kontrola na úrovni EÚ, po ktorej tak túži Nemecko a Francúzsko, problémy s ňou by malo skôr práve Nemecko a Francúzsko. Nie väčšina krajín eurozóny najviac zasiahnutých krízou.
    http://blog.jetotak.sk/kriticka-ekonomia/2010/12/22/je-vladny-dlh-skutocne-jedinym-problemom-eurozony/

    Samozrejme, mozno argumentovat, ze Iri a Spanieli mali mat este vacsie prebytky vzhladom na ich prehriatu ekonomiku, ale to by sa asi tazko vysvetlovalo politikom ako aj volicom. Preto (a najma pred krizou) vacsina makroekonomov uprednostnuje pouzitie menovej politiky na stabilizaciu.

    A co dnes? Fiskalna restrikcia zhorsuje recesiu na periferii a mozeme len dufat, ze pomoze tak k poklesu cien a miezd a k skoremu obnoveniu konkurencieschopnosti. Zatial to tak moc nevypada. Ale kazdy dalsi rok straty outputu kvoli tejto politike (miesto teoretickej alternativy volneho kurzu a expanzivnej menovej politiky na nastolenie konkurencieschopnosti a ozivenia ekonomiky) len zvysuje naklady eura na periferii.

    Ale je tu aj dalsia alternativa – zmiernit mieru utrpenia periferie zvysenim inflacie v jadre a rozlozit tak naklady nastolenia rovnovahy miesto jednostranneho prenasania na periferiu.

    Kazdopadne, stojim si za nazorom, ze hovorit len o fiskalnej ne(zodpovednosti) je mylne, kedze cast periferie bola zodpovednejsia ako jadro a volba kurzoveho rezimu a menovej politiky tu hrala a hra velku ulohu.

    “ked pozriem na ceny a HDP napr. v Spanielsku, tak sa mi skor vidi, ze politika ECB bola po 2006 prilis restriktivna. Priehrievanie nevidim:”
    Ked sa pozriem na udaje MMF o produkcnej medzere v roku 2007, Francuzsko + 0,7 %, Portugalsko + 0,8% Nemecko + 2,7%, Spanielsko + 3.8%, Irsko + 6,4 % a Grecko 8,5 %.

    Samozrejme som si vedomy metodologickych problemov. Lenze pozrime sa na to globalne – vyssi rast cien a miezd periferie, kapitalove toky na periferiu a zhorsujuce sa schodky obchodnej bilancie, ekonometricke odhady relativne vyssieho prekrocenia potencialneho produktu pre vacsinu periferie a vznik bublin na periferii (v pripade Spanielska obrovska bublina na realitnom trhu). Je to tak tazke vidiet nejake prehrievanie?

    “Asymetria sokov tiez podla mna nie je problem, vid kriza chytila vsetkych rovnako.”
    Vazne? Ma Nemecko rovnaky problem s realitnym trhom ako Spanielsko a s bankami ako Irsko? Nie je dolezite len ci sa celi rovnakym sokom, ale aj odlisnostiach v ich intenzite ako aj rychlosti absorbcie tychto sokov. Cim budu krajiny v tomto hladisku homogenejsie, tym bude spolocna menova politika menej nakladna, co sa tyka stabilizacie.

  • Braňo 09.03.2012 15:02

    “Ak su schodky na beznom ucte kompenzovane prebytkami na kapitalovom ucte, rezervy sa nemenia. A kedze v suvislosti s bublinou na periferii hovorime o kapitalovych tokoch z jadra, to bude asi nas pripad.”

    Schodky na beznom ucte musia byt kompenzovane kapitalovym uctom (ktory obsahuje aj spominane rezervy), ak teda berieme definiciu bilancie ako bezny a kapitalovy ucet (bez financneho).

    Suhlasim, ze by vzhladom na veritela poslednej instancie bolo jednoduchsie splacat dlhy. Kedze nemame ani veritela poslednej instancie, ani fiskalnu uniu, tak fiskalna politika v eurozone musi byt zodpovedna.

    O fixnom kurze hovorime, pretoze chcem ukazat, ze fixovanie kurzu (a teda spolocna monetarna politika) nie je hlavny problem.

    Podla udajov IMF malo Finsko v 2007 pozitivny output gap 4%. Navyse, pri pohlade graf je prehriatie aj viditelne, na rozdiel od Spanielska:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=5zO

    Rast realneho HDP zrychluje a nominalne HDP zrychluje este rychlejsie a vysledkom je rastuca inflacia. Napriek tomu Finsko nema problem. Finsko a dalse staty totiz tvorili prebytky na beznych uctoch, hoci aj pre nich bola “monetarna politika prilis volna”.

    Cize tak ako tvrdit, ze keby 17 statov EMU vlastnu menovu politiku, tak by nevznikli az take nerovnovahy, tak rovnako sa da tvrdit, ze keby xy statov EMU robilo lepsiu fiskalnu politiku, tak by neboli problemy.

    A nejde len o velkost rozpoctovych deficitov, kedze presne ako pises, problemy by mali Nemecko ci Francuzsko. Ide o strukturu zdanovania.

    Kto mal najnizsie dane zo spotreby v 2007 v celej EU27 (nielen v EMU)? Grecko, Spanielsko, Taliansko. Kto mal najnizsiu dan na energie? Grecko, Spanielsko… Toto vsetko prispieva k deficitom na beznom ucte.
    http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-22062009-AP/EN/2-22062009-AP-EN.PDF

    Ako som prilepil aj ten paper predtym, staci presunut zdanenie z exportov na importy a ma to rovnaky efekt ako oslabenie kurzu.

    Vyssi rast cien a miezd je dany konvergenciou. Ak by nebol, tak by krajiny periferie nekonvergovali k jadru. Je teda uplne prirodzeny.

    “Ma Nemecko rovnaky problem s realitnym trhom ako Spanielsko a s bankami ako Irsko?”

    Nemecko? Cakal by som, ze budes rozlisovat minimalne vychodne a zapadne Nemecko, ked uz hovoris, ze asymetria sokov je problem ;-)

    Ma Australia rovnake problemy po rovnakej realitnej bubline ako Spanielsko?
    http://i43.tinypic.com/qqti53.jpg
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=4HK

    “Nie je dolezite len ci sa celi rovnakym sokom, ale aj odlisnostiach v ich intenzite ako aj rychlosti absorbcie tychto sokov.”

    Suhlasim a hovorim, ze to nie je v eurozne problem. Ak by boli velke odlisnosti v intenzite a v rychlosti absorbcie, tak by cast eurozony potrebovala expanzivnu a cast restriktivnu politiku. Cize ktore krajiny dnes potrebuju monetarnu restrikciu?

    Pre mna nie su problem bubliny, alebo nezosynchronizovane cykly, ale celkovo prilis restriktivna monetarna politika a zla fiskalna politika.

  • Milan Vaňko 09.03.2012 19:06

    “Schodky na beznom ucte musia byt kompenzovane kapitalovym uctom (ktory obsahuje aj spominane rezervy), ak teda berieme definiciu bilancie ako bezny a kapitalovy ucet (bez financneho).”
    Ale toto vobec nie je relevantny argument. Ty si povodne argumentoval, ze pokial dochadza pri fixnom kurze k schodkom na beznom ucte, rezervy klesaju a preto musi reagovat fiskalna politika, pricom pri eure to neplati. Ja som argumentoval, ak pri schodkoch bezneho uctu existuje prebytok na kapitalovom ucte v dosledku kapitalovych tokov, rezervy sa nemenia a ziadny tlak z tohto hladiska na fiskalnu politiku neexistuje.

    To ci definujeme rezervy ako sucast kapitaloveho uctu alebo ako osobitnu kategoriu na podstate toho argumentu nic nemeni. Diskutujme o podstate problemu a nehadajme sa o definiciach.

    Podobne, pozri sa na krugmanov graf. V roku 1999 periferia a Nemecko mali iba mierne negativne schodky na beznom ucte. Pricom Nemecko preslo do vysokych prebytkov a periferia do vysokyck schodkov. Lenze v tomto obdobi Irsko a Spanielsko (Spanieli sice mali schodok 3% HDP uz v 1999 ale ten do roku 2007 narastol na 8%) mali v tomto obdobi zodpovednejsiu rozpoctovu politiku ako Nemecko. To naznacuje, ze skor tu hralo ulohu euro a menova politika ako fiskalna politika.

    “Suhlasim, ze by vzhladom na veritela poslednej instancie bolo jednoduchsie splacat dlhy. Kedze nemame ani veritela poslednej instancie, ani fiskalnu uniu, tak fiskalna politika v eurozone musi byt zodpovedna.”
    Otazka je, ci krajiny v hlbokej recesii dokazu byt zodpovednejsie. A este dolezitejsia otazka je, ci hlboka recesia, strata zivotnej urovne a vysoka nezamestnanost na periferii nie je prilis vysoka cena za euro a za fakt, ze eurozona nema veritela poslednej instancie.

    “O fixnom kurze hovorime, pretoze chcem ukazat, ze fixovanie kurzu (a teda spolocna monetarna politika) nie je hlavny problem.”
    Vobec si nereagoval si na argumentaciu, preco by pri floatingu a inflacnom cieleni bola situacia periferie lepsia. Ved to je standardne makro. Teda ak uvazujeme nepruznost miezd.

    “Podla udajov IMF malo Finsko v 2007 pozitivny output gap 4%. Navyse, pri pohlade graf je prehriatie aj viditelne.. ”
    Podla tej statisky malo Spanielsko vysoku pozitivnu produkcnu medzeru (je to samozrejme odhad a skutocny ouput gap mohol byt kludne vyssi, je to problem odhadnut), rast cien bol vyssi ako v jadre, deficit bezneho uctu po prijati eura znacne narastol, vznikla realitna bulbina (a to vsetko napriek rozpoctovym prebytkom a nizkemu verejnemu dlhu). Myslim, ze prehriatie je tu znacne.

    Ale co to Finsko? Finsko malo v roku 1999 prebytok na beznom ucte 5 % percent, ktory narastol do roku 2002 na 8.5 % z HDP. Lenze nasledne rapidne klesol na 4% v roku 2007 a dokonca 2.8% v roku 2008. Cize ano, je mozne ze politika ECB bola prilis volna tak isto pre Finsko. Akurat, Finsko malo vyhodu vysokych prvotnych prebytkov na beznom ucte.

    “A nejde len o velkost rozpoctovych deficitov, kedze presne ako pises, problemy by mali Nemecko ci Francuzsko. Ide o strukturu zdanovania.”
    Ok, Nemecko a periferia podobne schodky na beznych uctoch v roku 1999, potom obrovska divergencia. To je zaujimava teoria, ze by sme tuto divergenciu mohli vysvetlit rozdielom v spotrebnych daniach (pripadne bola tu tak znacna relativna zmena v spotrebnych daniach, ktora by vysvetlila tak znacnu divergenciu na beznych uctoch?), ale o tom prvykrat pocujem a rad by som videl teoriu a empiricke podporu.

    Na druhej strane, po roku 1999 jednotna mena a menova politika a podla Tayloroveho pravidla prilis volna pre periferiu. Nasleduje prehrievanie ekonomiky periferie, relativny narast cien a miezd a narast schodkov bezneho uctu. Standardne makro.

    Druhy pripad sa mi osobne zda o moc presvedcivejsi. Ale som otvoreny inym nazorom.

    “Nemecko? Cakal by som, ze budes rozlisovat minimalne vychodne a zapadne Nemecko, ked uz hovoris, ze asymetria sokov je problem”
    Tu zas odvadzas pozornost od podstaty a zacina mi to trochu pripadat ako diskusia za ucelom diskusie.

    Moj argument predsa nevylucuje, ze rozne regiony Nemecka (ci ineho statu) budu rozne zasiahnute. Praveze po zjednoteni Nemecka prislo vyludnenie a pokracovalo zaostavanie vychodneho Nemecka. To podporuje teoriu optimalnych menovych oblasti a nemeni nic na tom, ze ako celok Nemecko bolo menej zasiahnute financnou krizou ako periferia.

    “Ma Australia rovnake problemy po rovnakej realitnej bubline ako Spanielsko?”

    Ale vsak to podporuje moj argument, nie? Spanielsko ma euro a spolocnu menovu politiku ECB. Australia ma vlastnu menovu politiku a plavajuci kurz. Podobne Island zvlada krizu lepsie ako Irsko, aj ked malo este vacsie problemy s bankami ako Irsko.
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/why-not-the-worst/

    “Suhlasim a hovorim, ze to nie je v eurozne problem. Ak by boli velke odlisnosti v intenzite a v rychlosti absorbcie, tak by cast eurozony potrebovala expanzivnu a cast restriktivnu politiku.”
    Ale vsak presne toto to pravidlo hovori. Cast eurozony (periferia) potrebovala o dost restriktivnejsiu politiku ako jadro (a eurozona ako celok) pred krizou a teraz o dost expanzivnejsiu.

    A ano, suhlasim, ze dnes by sme potrebovali expanzivnejsiu monetarnu politiku, aby sme zabranili recesii v eurozone ako celku, ale aj pomohli nastoleniu rovnovahy medzi jadrom a periferiou.

  • Braňo 10.03.2012 8:44

    “ak pri schodkoch bezneho uctu existuje prebytok na kapitalovom ucte v dosledku kapitalovych tokov, rezervy sa nemenia a ziadny tlak z tohto hladiska na fiskalnu politiku neexistuje. ”

    Ten tlak tu existuje. Ved problem vobec nie je to, ze kapitalovy ucet z definicie vykryva bezny ucet. Problemom su predsa nerovnovahy uz na tychto pod-uctoch.

    Irsko s eurom dopadlo presne tak isto ako Island s plavajucou korunou alebo Madarsko s forintom. Ludia si naberu pozicky v eurach, zahranicie investuje do lokalnych mien kvoli vyssim sadzbam a monetarna politika defacto nielenze nezabrani prehrievaniu, ale naopak ho mozno este aj podpori. Standardne makro – vo svete mobilneho kapitalu sa nakoniec lokalna urokova sadzba prisposobi svetovej.

    Porovnanie Spanielska s Australiou nenahrava tvojmu argumentu, kedze v Australii vznikla bublina v realitach (a deficit na beznom ucte) i napriek tomu, ze ma vlastnu menovu politiku. Druha paralela je ta, ze ak by nebola politika ECB tak restriktivna, tak by vobec nedoslo k takym problemom a ozivenie by bolo rychlejsie pre celu EU. Faktom tiez je, ze Island dostal peknu fiskalnu injekciu vo forme 60% HDP, na ktoru sa nam nejak pozabudlo.

    K prehriatiu:
    (1) Podla statistiky Europskej Komisie (AMECO) bola produkcna medzera pre Spanielsko v 2007 len 2,1%, co je s vynimkou Portugalska a Malty najnizsi output gap v EU v danom roku. Podla OECD to bolo tiez len 2,9%.

    (2) Rychlejsie rastuce ceny v porovnani s jadrom nie su ziadny argument pre prehrievanie. Medzirocna inflacia bola od 2000 do 2006 konstantna, potom uz len klesala.

    (3) Rovnaka bublina v realitach (jeden trh z mnohych) a aj deficit na beznom ucte vznikol aj v Australii, ktora ma vlastnu menovu politiku.

    (4) V Spanielsku doslo k narastu populacie od 2000 do 2007 o 5 milionov ludi (vyse 10%).

    Suma-sumarum: toto nie je prehrievanie, ale skor znak toho, ze politika ECB bola pre Spanielsko po 2006 prilis restriktivna.

    Zobrat americke koeficienty a ukazat, ze sedia skor na jadro eurozony, je trochu postavene na hlavu. Vsak najrpv treba zistit ako formuluje ECB politiku a az potom sa treba pozriet komu ako sedi, vid nizsie.

    “o tom prvykrat pocujem a rad by som videl teoriu a empiricke podporu.”

    http://www.princeton.edu/~itskhoki/papers/FiscalDevaluations.pdf

    Co sa tyka Finska, tak Finsko nemalo ziadnu vyhodu vysokych prebytkov. Ono si tie prebytky vytvorilo a to i napriek tomu, ze od 1996 fixovalo kurz.

    Takisto je zaujimave, preco napr. take Taliansko nevytvorilo rovnaky deficit na beznom ucte ako Spanielsko. Ake vysvetlenie ponukas okrem toho, ze “pre Spanielsko bola monetarna politika prilis uvolnena a pre Taliansko nie”?

    Co sa tyka Nemecka a realit, tak tu uz mi pride, ze diskutujes o rozdieloch v ciastkovych trhoch v abritrarnych hraniciach len aby si diskutoval a ukazal, ze tu “nejaky” rozdiel vobec existuje, i ked nie je z pohladu monetarnej politiky relevantny. Monetarna politika neprisposobuje sadzby realitnemu trhu, ale agregatnej situacii. Cize je uplne jedno ci sa niekde darilo viac realitam a niekde zas nie, ked agregatne potrebuju tieto dve krajiny rovnaku menovu politiku.

    Druha vec je ta, ze problem zjednoteneho Nemecka nebol fixny kurz, ale vyska kurzu, pri ktorom sa marky zamienali (1 ku 1). Vychodne Nemecko bolo na tom pred 1945 predsa ekonomicky rovnako ako Zapadne, napriek jednotnej menovej politike.

    “Ale vsak presne toto to pravidlo hovori. Cast eurozony (periferia) potrebovala o dost restriktivnejsiu politiku ako jadro (a eurozona ako celok) pred krizou a teraz o dost expanzivnejsiu.”

    Vsak ale ja s tym nesuhlasim :) To pravidlo len zobralo americke koeficienty, ktore vobec nevysvetluju politiku ECB pre eurozonu. Tu je paper, kde to aj formalne testovali a zamietli:
    http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp258.pdf

    Dalej tvrdim, ze Spanielsko nepotrebovalo restriktivnejsiu monetarnu politiku (po 2006 skor expanzivnejsiu), a tiez tvrdim, ze v sucanosti potrebuje (a po krize potrebovalo) aj jadro expanzivnejsiu politiku.

    Nemecky a francuzsky breakeven rate je 1,6%. Po odratani inflacnej premie to znamena, ze ocakavana inflacia v buducich 10 rokoch je len nieco vyse 1,3% rocne.

    Breakeven v USA je 2,25%, takmer na dlhodobom trende. Ked bol europskych 1,6%, tak FED robil okamzite QE. ECB naopak pri nemeckych 2,25% uz mala smrt v ociach, zdvihla sadzby a zatlacila breakeven v jadre pod 0,8%, coho vysledkom je dalsia recesia v EU.

    Rast NHDP bol od 1996 v eurozone v priemere 3,4% medzirocne (vratane krizy). Pocas ozivenia sme sa nedostali ani na tento priemer (ozivenie bolo okolo 2,9%). Ak by sme chceli nabehnut spat na !predkrizovy! priemer, tak by musela monetarna politika zabezpecit 4% rast NHDP a to nesnivam o tom, ze by ECB nechala chvilu ficat ekonomiku trochu rychlejsie, aby sa dobehlo zameskane (teda 4,5-5% rast NHDP).

    Ja nenutim v hlbokej krize nikoho k fiskalnej restrikcii. Ide o presun priamych dani na nepriame (DPH sa plati na importoch), cim dosiahneme zvysenie konkurencieschopnosti na periferii. Az po oziveni musi prist na rad ozdravenie rozpoctu ako takeho.

  • J.V. Dubois 12.06.2012 17:27

    A vidim ze som zameskal zaujimavu debatu. Takze iba par pripomienok:

    1. “Ako som prilepil aj ten paper predtym, staci presunut zdanenie z exportov na importy a ma to rovnaky efekt ako oslabenie kurzu.”

    Uz davnejsie si mi natlacil chrobaka do hlavy s tymto, a aj ked stale suhlasim ze je to najlepsie z moznych riesenie pri existencii eurozony, vonkoncom to nie je plnohodnotne nahradenie vlastnej meny. Dobry clanok je tu: http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/more-pain-no-gain-for-greece vypreparovany hlavny argument tu:

    “During the first six months, net exports did contribute very significantly to aggregate demand; but even in this brief but important period, most of the new demand came from reduced imports, as local production rapidly replaced imported goods that were made more expensive by the devaluation.30 The main drivers of real growth during Argentina’s recovery were domestic consumption and investment.”

    Spanielska, Talianska a aj Grecka ekonomika je dost uzavreta a preto by dopad dani na podporu exportu znamenal iba zlomok z devalvacie potrebnej pre vyrovnanie nerovnovah.

    2. V zasade suhlasim s Milanom, ze hlavny problem je skutocne EURo. A pouzijem tvoj (a aj moj) argument o NGDP: http://esoltas.blogspot.sk/2012/05/eurocrisis-ngdp-crisis.html

    Rozdiely v nominalnom HDP v ramci eurozony su obrovske. Samozrejme absolutne suhlasim ze uvolnenie menovej politiky by vyrazne pomohlo, ale stale by existovali krajiny pre ktore by to bolo vyrazne nedostatocne a ktore by napriek tomu trpeli

    3. Fiskalna politika: toto mi pripada trochu bizarne – obhajovat euro s mizivimi kladmi vytvorenim komplexneho systemu kontroly kapitalovych tokov prostrednictvom fiskalnej politiky (v podstate DPHcky a manipulaciou odvodov). Dokonca aj paper ktory si linkoval okrem Sales Tax odporucal zavedenie ciel a dotovanie vyvozu, co je prudko v rozpore s principmi Eurozony.

    V podstate sme naspat k debate o Eternal triangle: http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/triangle.html s tym ze Eurozona by si mala vybrat “Confidence” (jednotnu menu) a “Confidence” (volne kapitalove toky). Avsak bez systemu fiskalnych transferov napriec eurozonou budu krajiny vystavene permantnej hrozbe asymetrickych sokov ktore budu sposobovat obrovske ekonomicke a socialne problemy.

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