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Juraj Briškár: Koniec krízy v nedohľadne

Údaje o vývoji príjmovej nerovnosti v USA za rok 2010 ukazujú, že súčasné hospodárske oživenie stojí na hlinených nohách. Ekonomika síce rástla, ale prospech z tohto rastu išiel do rúk malého počtu najbohatších domácností. Príjem najbohatších 0,01 % stúpol o 21,5 %, zatiaľ čo príjem dolných 90 % domácností klesol o 0,4 %. Až neuveriteľných 93 % nárastu celkového príjmu šlo do rúk 1 %.

Tieto čísla ukazujú, že sa nestačí pozerať iba na tradičné makroekonomické údaje ako rast HDP, pretože ten nám pri súčasnej extrémnej nerovnosti nepovie nič o finančnej situácii bežných amerických rodín. Pritom sú to práve tieto domácnosti, na ktorých spotrebe ešte stále stojí americká ekonomika.

Veľmi zaujímavé je aj porovnanie s hospodárskym oživením po Veľkej hospodárskej kríze. V roku 1934 mal hospodársky rast úplne iný charakter – nárast bohatstva zdieľali široké vrstvy obyvateľstva. Príjem dolných 90 % príjmovej distribúcie narástol o 8,8 % a príjem horného 0,01 % vtedy klesol o 3,4 %.

David Cay Johnston vysvetľuje vo svojom článku tento rozdiel pomocou odlišnej vládnej politiky Roosvelta a Obamu. Zatiaľ čo Roosvelt sa nebál priamo útočiť na bankárov a obklopil sa odborníkmi na boj s kartelmi a finančnými podvodmi, Obamov ekonomický tím sa až na zopár výnimiek skladal z bývalých bankárov a ľudí veľmi blízkych k Wall Street. Niektorí kritici preto aj začali označovať Obamovu administratívu za vládu Wall Street.

Zdá sa však, že prezident Obama v poslednom čase mení rétoriku a teraz už otvorene pomenúva extrémnu príjmovú nerovnosť ako nielen morálny, ale aj významný ekonomický problém a brzdu hospodárskeho rozvoja. Pred nasledujúcimi prezidentskými voľbami sa štylizuje do pozície obhajcu strednej triedy, ktorej príjmy dlhodobo stagnujú.

Tento prudký nárast príjmovej nerovnosti pritom nie je vecou posledných pár rokov, ale je to  dlhodobý proces, ktorý začal na začiatku 80. rokov. Na nasledujúcom grafe môžeme vidieť, že počas 20. storočia prebehli dve etapy narastajúcej nerovnosti, ktoré vždy vyvrcholili v masívnej finančnej a ekonomickej kríze. Príjmová nerovnosť stúpala od začiatku 20. storočia a svoj vrchol dosiahla v roku 1928. To, čo nasledovalo, bol krach na Wall Street a Veľká hospodárska kríza.

Príjmová nerovnosť prudko klesla v 30. rokoch a počas 2. svetovej vojny a na nízkych úrovniach zostala počas 50. a 60. rokov. Obdobie 1980-2006 znamenalo opätovný nárast nerovnosti a ďalšiu finančnú krízu úplne rovnakého typu. Zaujímavé je, že príjmová nerovnosť dosiahla svoj vrchol na presne rovnakej hodnote tesne pred každou z kríz – príjem horného 1 % dosiahol 23,5 % celkového príjmu v roku 1928 aj v roku 2007.

Prečo je narastajúca príjmová nerovnosť brzdou hospodárskeho rastu? Jednoducho preto, lebo vyvoláva nedostatok agregátneho dopytu v ekonomike. Vysokopríjmové skupiny nie sú schopné dať na spotrebu takú časť svojho príjmu ako tie nízkopríjmové. Preto ak prerozdeľujeme celkový príjem tak, že tí najbohatší majú jeho stále väčšiu časť, narazíme na problém nedostatku spotreby. Bohatí jednoducho nie sú schopní celý svoj príjem minúť na luxusnú spotrebu a ekonomika produkuje viac výrobkov ako sú spotrebitelia v nej pripravení zakúpiť. Napríklad Henry Ford si veľmi dobre uvedomoval, že jeho zamestnanci sú zároveň zákazníkmi, a preto dbal na to, aby si robotníci v jeho továrňach mohli zo svojho príjmu kúpiť autá, ktoré vyrábali.

Tento problém nedostatku spotreby pred krízou prekryl nárast súkromného dlhu. Väčšina amerických domácnosti sa stále viac zadlžovala, aby si mohla dovoliť spotrebúvať každý rok viac, napriek tomu, že ich reálne príjmy stagnovali. Je však úplne jasné, že model, keď príjem domácnosti stagnuje a jej zadlženie sa neustále zvyšuje, nemôže dlhodobo fungovať a nakoniec príde ku krachu. Podrobnejšie o príjmovej nerovnosti ako o hlavnej príčine ekonomických kríz 1929-1933 a 2007-2009 píšem tu.

Z tejto analýzy vyplýva, že jediný spôsob, ako sa môže americká a aj svetová ekonomika naštartovať k udržateľnému rastu, je cez pokles príjmovej nerovnosti. Posledné dáta za USA (za rok 2011 ešte dáta nie sú) však naznačujú, že situácia sa vôbec nezlepšuje, a preto je koniec súčasnej ekonomickej krízy ešte ďaleko.

Autor študuje ekonómiu na University of Sussex.

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Komentáre (762)

  • J.V. Dubois 26.03.2012 16:01

    Dovolím si nesúhlasiť, príjmová nerovnosť podľa mňa nemá s krízou ako takou nič spoločné. Určite nie s krízou ktorú si predstavujeme ako krízu ťahanú nedostatkom agregátneho dopytu. Lebo ak krízu spôsobilo to, že príjem 1% narástlo na 23,5% tak potom by mal platiť aj opak, teda že kríza sa nevyrieši kým táto nerovnosť nepominie.

    Pointou je, že z dlhodobého hľadiska nie je dôležitý dopyt, ale ponuka. Ak odhliadneme od podvodov a inej kriminálnej činnosti, tak vaše bohatstvo sa riadi tým, čo viete spoločnosti ponúknuť. Ak spoločnosť zažíva akútny nedostatok pracovnej sily, majú sa dobre robotníci. Ak má málo kapitálu, tak kapitál (a jeho vlastníci) žnú vysoké reálne príjmy.

    Viem si úplne jednoducho predstaviť svet, v ktorom masy pracujúcich pracujú 14 hodinové smeny v úmorných podmienkach za mzdu ktorá im ledva stačí na obživu pre seba a svoje deti. Toto však nie je to čo považujeme za recesiu, takáto ekononomika môže byť stabilná a môže vykazovať plnú zamestnanosť. Ono dokonca aj existuje – pozrite sa na rannoindustriálne krajiny ktoré sa dnes pripomínajú napríklad vo veľkých priemyselných aglomeráciách v Číne.

    Príjmová nerovnosť je aj podľa mňa dôležitá a treba sa jej venovať, obzlvášť ak je výsledkom neférových podmienok (napríklad využitím prirodzených monopolov, ako je napríklad prenájom pôdy). Môže byť nebezpečnou z politického hľadiska, môže práve dlhodobo podkopávať zákonodárny proces a celý systém v prospech mocných oligarchov a iných rentseekerov. Ale stále to nie je dôvodom dopytom ťahanej krízy.

  • Dusan 26.03.2012 18:00

    Ponuka daleko prevysuje dopyt. Vsetkeho. Vdaka stale vyssej efektivite – ktorej stale zvysovanie je zakladnou mantrou tohto systemu.
    Velka kopa pyta stale viac. Peniaze su krvou ekonomiky – ked je urcita cast organizmu vyrazne “prekrvena” – inde to jednoducho chyba.
    Ford mal pravdu – ale dnes ho v efektivite tromfnu korejske automobilky na Slovensku vyplacajuce robotnikom nieco malo nad minimom na prezitie. Aj to len za cenu danovych prazdnin a statnych dotacii.

    “Akutny nedostatok pracovnej sily…..” – to v 21. storoci napisali nejaki z hybernacie prebudeni utopisti ?

  • kri 08.04.2012 15:12

    Juraj, v tom svojom paperi pises:

    “Rising income inequality: the true cause of the current crisis?”

    prijmova nerovnost je iba dosledkom, nie pricinou. pricinou je nafukovanie penaznej zasoby a to je jedinou a zakladnou pricinou, vsetko ostatne je toho dosledkom.

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