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Fiškálna zmluva – automatické uťahovanie opaskov

Druhého marca 2012 podpísalo 25 predstaviteľov štátov alebo vlád Európskej únie novú zmluvu[1].  Ak pôjde všetko podľa plánu, do platnosti vstúpi začiatkom budúceho roka. Takzvanú „Fiškálnu zmluvu“ skoncipovali v rekordne krátkom čase. Už začiatok celého procesu bol dramatický – Veľká Británia 9. decembra 2011 na stretnutí Európskej rady vetovala zmenu zmlúv EÚ. Namiesto toho sa vlády rozhodli vytvoriť nový legislatívny nástroj, ktorý môže byť prijatý rýchlejšie a s menším rizikom nepríjemných zásahov zo strany verejnosti v rámci demokratických diskusií – samostatnú zmluvu EÚ, ktorá vlastne ani zmluvou EÚ nie je.

Táto zmluva nariaďuje signatárskym krajinám prijať prísnu rozpočtovú politiku. Ide najmä o tzv. „štrukturálny deficit”, ktorý sa má trvalo udržať pod hranicou 0,5 % HDP. Správu o zmluve privítal najmä podnikateľský sektor vrátane európskej federácie zamestnávateľov BusinessEurope. Naopak, odbory zmluvu ostro kritizovali, pričom Európska odborová konfederácia (ETUC) novú zmluvu prvýkrát v histórii od začiatku odmietla.

Prečo teraz?

Podľa generálnej tajomníčky ETUC Bernadetty Ségolovej „môže táto zmluva uspokojiť politických priateľov kancelárky Merkelovej, nie však milióny európskych nezamestnaných, chudobných alebo ľudí pracujúcich v neštandardných formách zamestnania, ktorí očakávajú silnú podporu zo strany inštitúcií EÚ. Preto sme proti.“[2]

Väčšina analytikov a komentátorov s ňou súhlasí. Zmluva sa ale netýka súčasnej krízy. Nezmení trend eurokrízy a ani to nie je jej cieľ. Je o budúcnosti ekonomickej politiky a o nemeckých voličoch. Kancelárka Angela Merkelová potrebuje ubezpečiť nemecké publikum o tom, že je prísna na vysoko zadlžené krajiny, aby zvýšila svoju popularitu a poskytla vláde manévrovací priestor na spolufinancovanie nového Európskeho stabilizačného mechanizmu – fondu na poskytovanie pôžičiek členským štátom, ktoré sa ocitli vo vážnych finančných problémoch. Aby to dosiahla, musí zabezpečiť, aby takéto krajiny na oplátku dodržiavali prísny úsporný program.

Tri novinky

Zbežný pohľad na novú zmluvu zanecháva dojem, že máme pred sebou komplexný súbor nových pravidiel a mechanizmov. Text zmluvy sa zdá byť pretkaný zložitými nástrojmi na riadenie ekonomickej politiky členských štátov v mnohých oblastiach. Ale keď odfiltrujete sebaobdivné formulácie o minulých „úspechoch“, zmienky o indikátoroch a cieľoch, ktoré už európska legislatíva obsahuje, a pasáže o nadchádzajúcich iniciatívach, ostane vám krátky zoznam troch noviniek: formalizovanejšie samity eurozóny, rýchlejšia reakcia voči krajinám s rozpočtovým deficitom a tzv. dlhová brzda – všetko silné páky na vynucovanie dodržiavania pravidiel, ktoré majú udržať nízke deficity a zabrániť rastu dlhov.

Bolo by zložité vŕtať sa v komplikovaných detailoch zmluvy. Jej hlavné črty však možno zhrnúť do 10 bodov.

1. Je to „zmluva o uťahovaní opaskov“

Najdôležitejším prvkom zmluvy je požiadavka, aby členské štáty sprísnili svoju fiškálnu politiku (napr. aby minimalizovali rozpočtový deficit alebo aby sa mu úplne vyhli). Táto požiadavka ide za rámec existujúcich pravidiel EÚ.

Obmedzené deficity nie sú, samozrejme, v Európskej únii ničím novým. Podľa Paktu stability a rastu, ktorý je oporou  Hospodárskej a menovej únie, musia členské štáty udržať deficit verejných financií pod hranicou 3 % HDP. Ak krajiny eurozóny tento limit prekročia, môžu byť ich vlády pokutované. Ešte predtým však dostanú program, ktorý ich má vyviesť na cestu k vyváženému rozpočtu. Kľúčovým bodom v takomto „nápravnom programe“ je zníženie „štrukturálneho deficitu“ (pozri informáciu v rámiku), najmä cieľ stlačiť deficit v priebehu niekoľkých rokov pod úroveň 0,5 % HDP[3]. Podľa novej zmluvy tento indikátor už nie je indikátor, ale nariadenie.

Čo je „štrukturálny deficit“?

Štrukturálny deficit =  celkový deficit – cyklický deficit – jednorazové opatrenia

Štrukturálny deficit má odhaliť akýkoľvek strednodobý nesúlad medzi vládnymi výdavkami a príjmami. Vypočítame ho, ak od aktuálneho celkového deficitu odrátame dve zložky: tzv. cyklický deficit (vyjadruje vplyv konkrétnych aktuálnych okolností, ekonomické výkyvy smerom hore aj dolu) a tzv. jednorazové opatrenia (je to obmedzený zoznam dočasných výdavkov vlády, ktoré sa považujú za legitímne). Dostaneme číslo, ktoré má ukázať, či má vláda znížiť svoje výdavky alebo zdvihnúť dane. To by malo udržať štrukturálny dlh na uzde, a preto sa tejto požiadavke zvykne hovoriť aj „dlhová brzda“.

Ak by bola zmluva platná, požadované škrty (alebo zvyšovanie daní) by boli pomerne dramatické. Dnes sú v EÚ len štyri krajiny s deficitom pod stanovenou magickou hranicou (Luxembursko, Fínsko, Švédsko a Estónsko)[4]. V mnohých krajinách by boli potrebné dramatické zmeny. Napríklad v Belgicku považuje Európska komisia 4,0 % z celkového deficitu 4,6 % za „štrukturálny deficit“. Na základe novej zmluvy by Belgicko dostalo nový a oveľa silnejší „pakt stability“, ktorý by jeho vládu prinútil znížiť deficit nie na súčasné 3 %, ale na 1,1 % HDP.

Na prvý pohľad sa môže zdať, že signatárskym krajinám sa nepredpisujú konkrétne špecifické opatrenie, ktoré majú prijať – napríklad znížiť sociálne výdavky. Na zníženie štrukturálneho deficitu sú však takéto špecifické opatrenia nevyhnutné. Odporúčania komisie pre členské štáty, voči ktorým bolo začaté konanie kvôli vysokým deficitom –  a je ich 23 (!) z 27 členských štátov – hovoria jasne: znižovanie sociálnych výdavkov je tou správnou cestou znižovania akéhokoľvek štrukturálneho deficitu.[5] Polpercentný limit pre štrukturálny deficit výrazne obmedzí možnosti vlád najmä v časoch krízy. Znemožní im použiť verejné investície ako protikrízovú reakciu, takže je to výrazne jednostranne zamerané opatrenie proti sociálnym výdavkom.

Okrem toho – rovnako ako súčasné pravidlá a postupy EÚ, vrátane Paktu stability – je nová zmluva zameraná na výdavky. Potvrdilo to aj prijatie „Paktu Euro-plus“ v marci 2011, ktorý zdôrazňuje, že „udržateľnosť verejných financií“ by sa mala dosiahnuť siahnutím na dôchodky, výdavky na zdravotnú starostlivosť a sociálne výdavky.[6]

Skrátka – je to zmluva o uťahovaní opaskov.

2. Je automatická

Ak by vláda nerešpektovala „dlhovú brzdu“ počas „procesu tvorby národného rozpočtu“ (plánovanie, prijatie, implementácia), legislatívne mechanizmy v rámci tej-ktorej krajiny spustia sankcie, ktoré budú stačiť na to, aby sa vláda vrátila na správnu koľaj.

Vynára sa tu otázka: Kto bude kontrolovať vládnu politiku a ako? Kto bude vládu žalovať a kto ju prinúti meniť politiku alebo ako to bude fungovať? Niečo naznačuje už zmluva. Zodpovednosť za stanovenie „spoločných princípov“ k pravidlám prisudzuje Európskej komisii, a to vrátanie princípov týkajúcich sa „nezávislosti inštitúcií, ktoré sú na národnej úrovni zodpovedné za sledovanie dodržiavania stanovených pravidiel“. Inými slovami, na úrovni členského štátu budú zriadené nezávislé orgány – zložené pravdepodobne z ekonómov a právnych expertov – aby udržiavali disciplínu vlád členských štátov.[7]

3. Je navždy

Prísna rozpočtová politika má mať trvalý charakter.

Text hovorí, že členské štáty majú prijať „také právne úpravy, ktoré budú záväzné, trvalé, ak je to možné, tak zakomponované do ústavy, prípadne také, ktoré budú zaručovať úplné dodržiavanie pravidiel počas národných rozpočtových procesov“. Čiže navždy.

Nemecko by uprednostnilo, aby aj ďalšie signatárske štáty implementovali zmluvu tak ako v Nemecku. Nemecko nedávno prijalo zmenu ústavy, ktorá prinúti budúce vlády, aby sa držali pod hranicou 0,35 % štrukturálneho deficitu. Kancelárka Merkelová by teraz veľmi rada videla podobné kroky aj v ostatných členských štátoch. Napriek všetkému je zmluva do istej miery pružná. Môžu sa prijať iné pravidlá, ale musia byť „trvalé“. Na konci rokovania Merkelová povedala:

„Dlhová brzda bude záväzná a bude trvalo platná. Nikdy ju nebude môcť zmeniť parlamentná väčšina.“[8]

V texte zmluvy sa síce píše, že „privilégiá národných parlamentov budú v plnej miere rešpektované“, ale v celom kontexte pôsobí takáto formulácia skôr ako nezamýšľaná irónia.

V niektorých krajinách si zmena ústavy vyžaduje referendum. Tomuto scenáru sa snažia vlády vyhnúť. Jeden zo spôsobov, ako sa to dá urobiť v rámci novej zmluvy EÚ, ktorá de facto zmluvou EÚ nie je, je vymyslieť trvalé pravidlo s charakterom ústavného pravidla, ktoré však v ústave nebude.

4. V prípade pochybností rozhoduje Európsky súdny dvor

Čo ak si niektorý členský (alebo signatársky) štát bude myslieť o inom členskom štáte, že neprijal dostatočne silné pravidlá na dodržiavania princípov? V takom prípade môže rozhorčený štát otvoriť súdne konanie proti vinníkovi na Európskom súdnom dvore. Môže to spôsobiť určitý chaos, pretože úlohou Európskeho súdneho dvora je presadzovať dodržiavanie legislatívy EÚ a nie riešiť rozdiely medzi členskými štátmi ani prijímať rozhodnutia o zmluvách, ktoré nie sú zmluvami EÚ. V tomto prípade sa však súd dostal do pozície, kedy môže ukladať pokuty do výšky 0,1 % HDP.

V budúcnosti môže byť táto kľúčová úloha Európskeho súdneho dvora dôležitá. Umožní totiž ktorémukoľvek členskému štátu podať sťažnosť v ktoromkoľvek bode implementácie zmluvy v inom signatárskom štáte. Aj keď v skutočnosti Komisia nemá hrať formálnu úlohu pri zmluvách mimo rámca EÚ, má otvorené zadné vrátka v prípade súdneho procesu: Ak zo záveru správy Komisie vyplynie, že implementácia dlhovej brzdy nebola členským štátom dostatočne implementovaná, „záležitosť sa dostane pred súd”“ jedného z iných členských štátov (článok 8, odsek 1).

5. Žiadna alebo iba malá pružnosť

Budú musieť signatári znížiť svoje štrukturálne deficity na 0,5 % HDP už zajtra?

Nie, ale budú to musieť urobiť rýchlo. Nie je jasné, koľko času návrh Komisie poskytuje. Na ceste k splneniu tohto kľúčového indikátora majú signatárske štáty dovolené vybočiť z úzkych mantinelov úspor, ale iba vtedy, ak dôjde k negatívnemu alebo veľmi pomalému rastu a za predpokladu, že toto odbočenie neohrozí „strednodobú fiškálnu udržateľnosť“. To isté platí aj v prípade, ak sa dosiahne cieľ maximálneho polpercentného deficitu.

Táto výnimka však nie je úplne jasná a dokonca ani nemusí nikdy nastať. Jedinou hmatateľne flexibilnou možnosťou pre signatárov s nízkym dlhom je, že môžu dosiahnuť deficit vo výške 1 % HDP. Túto výnimku si však v nasledujúcich rokoch bude môcť vychutnať len málo krajín[9]. Dokonca aj v časoch krízy alebo pri malom raste budú mať signatárske štáty výrazné problémy, ak sa rozhodnú hľadať východisko v expanzívnej fiškálnej politike alebo vo veľkých verejných investíciách. Celá táto iniciatíva je zaujatá voči keynesiánskej odpovedi na krízu – podľa nej je rozumné, aby ekonomika reagovala na krízu expanzívnou politikou, dokonca aj za cenu ohrozenia vyváženého rozpočtu. História ukazuje, že takáto odpoveď bola účinná.

„V čase prosperity ju nepotrebujeme. Keď je zle, tak táto politika je chybná. Deficit v čase krízy nie je znakom zlej politiky“, povedal profesor ekonómie Jesper Jespersen.[10]

Zmluva vyryje súčasnú odpoveď na krízu do kameňa a je isté, že počas ďalšej krízy sa vina automaticky zvalí na verejné výdavky, dokonca aj vtedy, ak – podobne ako dnes – korene krízy siahajú do súkromného sektora. Zlá diagnóza – zlá liečba.

6. Sociálne výdavky sa stali terčom metódy výpočtu

Detaily výpočtu „štrukturálneho deficitu“ sú príliš komplikované, aby im niekedy mohla verejnosť v celej šírke porozumieť. V skutočnosti o metóde výpočtu neexistuje zhoda ani na medzinárodnej úrovni, dokonca ani v rámci EÚ. Svoje interné metódy výpočtu používa MMF, OECD, Európska centrálna banka a tiež Európska komisia. Niektoré členské štáty majú svoje vlastné postupy.

Lenže použitá metodika je veľmi dôležitá. Hodnota indikátora  0,5 % môže rozhodnúť o budúcnosti základných sociálnych práv. Či má vláda svoj štrukturálny deficit na nesprávnej strane tohto limitu, závisí vo veľkej miere od spôsobu, akým sa toto číslo vypočítalo.

Napríklad v roku 2011 komisia vyrátala, že štrukturálny deficit Dánska je 3 %. Dánska vláda však tvrdí, že jej štrukturálny deficit je na úrovni 1 % HDP. Ak by sa použil výpočet Komisie, tak by Dánsko muselo znížiť výdavky (alebo zvýšiť dane), čo by mu zdvojnásobilo náklady na celý systém predčasných dôchodkov!

Dánska národná banka a ministerstvo financií tvrdia, že majú lepšiu metódu, ktorá viac odzrkadľuje dánsku ekonomiku. Tvrdia, že výpočet Komisie je zaujatý proti krajinám s vysokými dávkami podpory v nezamestnanosti. Dánska vláda sa preto rozhodla trvať na použití vlastných metód. A keďže výpočty Komisie sú založené na veľmi krátkom zozname iných výdavkov – tzv. „jednorazových opatreniach“ – môžu sa tieto výdavky odrátať od celkovej sumy.[11]

Ak by sa mala naplniť túžba po väčšej flexibilite v metóde výpočtu, bolo by nevyhnutné zmeniť text zmluvy. Komisia navrhuje spoločné princípy, ktoré by sa mali prijať neskôr a nie je veľmi pravdepodobné, že navrhne iné metódy než tie, ktoré už používa pri hodnotení rozpočtov členských štátov. Ak by Európsky súdny dvor mal hodnotiť postup členského štátu, bolo by veľmi prekvapivé, ak by legitimizoval iné metódy, než aké už roky používa Európska komisia.

Z dlhodobého hľadiska nie je pravdepodobné ani to, že prežijú špecifické metódy adaptované na ekonomiky jednotlivých štátov. Komisia zbožňuje jednotné výpočtové metódy, ktoré jej umožňujú prehliadať špecifiká lokálnych ekonomík a je veľmi nepravdepodobné, že zmení kurz v čase, keď je témou číslo jedna jednotná fiškálna disciplína. Jej prioritou priorít bude priamočiary, politický, prísne účelný nástroj, o ktorom sa nebudú môcť viesť žiadne polemiky.

7. Je to politický nástroj – výpočty sú nespoľahlivé a nebezpečné

V skutočnosti však Komisia nemá dôvod, aby sa odvolávala na prax z minulých rokov. Niekedy totiž vo svojich výpočtoch štrukturálnych deficitov členských štátov preukázateľne chybila. Napríklad v prípade Írska. Koncom roka 2008 komisia predpovedala, že írska ekonomika bude pokračovať v roku 2009 na optimálnej úrovni. Ak by vtedy platila nová zmluva, národný rozpočet Írska by bol pripravený na základe tohto predpokladu. Írska vláda by vzhľadom na predpokladaný nízky štrukturálny deficit uvoľnila výdavky. Počas roka by však bola donútená prijať drastické a okamžité škrty. V skutočnosti sa totiž írska ekonomika prepadla a čísla sa museli výrazne prehodnotiť. Inými slovami, na základe výpočtov sa vytvorila príliš ružová predstava o štrukturálnom deficite.

Nastať však môže aj opačný prípad. Odhady Komisie o miere rastu Írska – potenciálnej alebo reálnej – ukazovali, že hlboká ekonomická kríza výrazne nezmení rozdiel medzi reálnou a potenciálnou mierou rastu. Inak povedané, malo byť jedno, či bude írska ekonomika prežívať hlbokú krízu alebo rozmach. Pri ktoromkoľvek scenári malo byť Írsko blízko k optimálnemu výkonu.[12] To nie je veľmi realistické. V skutočnosti je to dosť nebezpečné. Nízky „výkonnostný rozdiel“ v časoch krízy naznačuje veľkú „štrukturálnu zložku“ dlhu, čo by pri novej zmluve priamo viedlo k masívnym a okamžitým škrtom.

Nie je to len preto, že Komisia nemá žiadnu krištáľovú guľu. Štrukturálny deficit sa počíta v niekoľkých krokoch, ktoré zahŕňajú aj hrubý odhad. V metóde, ktorú Komisia používa na zistenie cyklického deficitu, sa spolu násobia dva odhady. Hrubo povedané, násobí sa neistota neistotou.[13]

Koncept „štrukturálneho deficitu“ nebol zvolený pre jeho schopnosť poskytnúť presný pohľad na stav ekonomiky. Na svoj súčasný status bol povýšený preto, aby slúžil ako politický nástroj, pomocou ktorého možno zvaliť vinu za problémy v ekonomike na rozpočty a meniť ekonomickú politiku členských štátov.

8. Eurozóna na sedadle šoféra

Okrem „dlhovej brzdy“ má zmluva dve ďalšie dôležité časti.

Prvou je formálne prijatie rozhodnutia z októbra 2011, aby sa konali najmenej dva samity eurozóny každý rok. Predsedať im má nový prezident eurozóny, ktorý bude „vymenovaný jednoduchou väčšinou predstaviteľov štátov alebo vlád tých signatárov, kde je zavedené euro. V tom istom čase si bude na to isté obdobie Európska rada voliť svojho prezidenta.“ Táto časť zmluva bola kontroverzná. Krajiny, ktoré nepatria do eurozóny, na čele s Poľskom, sa necítia veľmi dobre pri predstave, že sú postavené mimo euroklubu a to zo strachu, že euroklub začne rozhodovať o veciach Únie ako celku. Eurozóna vyžaduje kvalifikovanú väčšinu. Na znak dobrej vôle sa môžu krajiny nepatriace do eurozóny zúčastňovať diskusií samitu eurozóny o konkrétnych otázkach a aj na samostatnom výročnom stretnutí signatárov novej zmluvy.

9. Okamžitá poslušnosť a pokuty pre krajiny s deficitom

Druhý prvok, ktorý sa opäť mení, sa týka pravidiel pre krajiny s deficitom. Podľa novej zmluvy sú členské štáty povinné rešpektovať hranicu 3 % deficitu v štátnom rozpočte. Ak tento limit porušia, môže sa proti nim začať konanie –  tzv. procedúra nadmerného deficitu. Toto konanie sa skladá z niekoľkých krokov. Najskôr sa musí rozhodnúť o jeho začatí, potom musí vláda dotknutého členského štátu pripraviť správu o tom, ako bude problém riešiť. Ak nebude konať dostatočne presvedčivo, v ďalšom kroku dostane oficiálne varovanie. A nakoniec, ak ide o krajinu eurozóny, môže dostať pokutu. V roku 2011 bola táto procedúra vo veľkej miere naviazaná na rozhodnutie využiť volebný systém v Rade, tzv. pravidlo obrátenej kvalifikovanej väčšiny. To znamená, že nato, aby sa mohol návrh vyhlásiť za neplatný a konanie sa mohlo posunúť ďalej, je potrebná kvalifikovaná väčšina. Toto pravidlo sa v súčasnosti využíva pri každom kroku konania okrem začatia konania.

Ako však môže zmluva, ktorá ani nie je zmluvou EÚ, narúšať smernice EÚ? Nebude sa treba obrátiť na Európsky parlament a podstúpiť ďalšie kroky, potrebné na zmenu pravidiel EÚ?

Tieto postupy sa na základe novej zmluvy obídu organizovaním samostatných volieb eurozóny. Základné rozhodnutie teda je, že pred voľbou v Rade sa eurozóna rozhodne na samostatnom stretnutí. Keďže eurozóna predstavuje v Rade kvalifikovanú väčšinu, tak môže mať viac menej všetko pod kontrolou. Ak nastane situácia, či má Rada podporiť návrh Komisie na začatie konania voči členskému štátu, musí byť v rámci euroskupiny proti takémuto opatreniu kvalifikovaná väčšina, ak má byť začatie konania odmietnuté. Ak nie, tak eurozóna bude voliť en bloc, čiže spolu, aby podporili začatie procedúry z dôvodu nadmerného deficitu. Ak sa o tejto procedúre rozhodne mimo rámca EÚ, nezmení to formálne postupy EÚ a Európsky parlament o záležitosti nebude rozhodovať.[14]

V tomto prípade je porazeným Francúzsko, ktoré sa v roku 2011 postavilo proti využitiu pravidla obrátenej kvalifikovanej väčšiny v prípade rozhodnutí o začatí konania. Teraz je tento spôsob hlasovania zakotvený v novej zmluve.

Toto bude v nadchádzajúcich rokoch čoraz dôležitejšie. V súčasnosti majú podľa najnovších štatistík Eurostatu[15] všetky krajiny okrem štyroch[16] deficit nad povolené 3 % a len v štyroch krajinách nezačala procedúra z dôvodu nadmerného deficitu.

10. Stane sa (reálnym) zákonom EÚ

Táto zmluva nie je zmluvou EÚ. Aj tak však Komisii rozširuje kompetencie a úlohy a poveruje Európsky súdny dvor novými a impozantnými právomocami. Bližšie už k nástroju EÚ nemôže mať. Do piatich rokov má byť zmluva integrovaná do zmluvy o EÚ a ak sledujeme súčasné diskusie na túto tému, je veľmi pravdepodobné, že sa tak aj stane. Momentálne sa zmluva netýka len Českej republiky a Veľkej Británie. Odpor Veľkej Británie bol spočiatku zarytý a ostrý. Odvtedy sa ale nálada upokojila a vďaka existujúcim opatreniam by mohla byť Veľká Británia ľahko vyňatá z nových ustanovení v zmluve EÚ.

Hrozba pre sociálny štát a demokraciu

Dovtedy na tom už pravdepodobne nebude záležať. Skutočná zmena nastane čoskoro. Len minulý rok boli výrazne posilnené pravidlá proti nadmerným rozpočtovým deficitom. Krajiny s deficitom čelia prísnejším termínom, požiadavkám na urýchlenie riešení, naliehavejším požiadavkám na reformy, ktoré uprednostňujú škrty v sociálnych výdavkoch a aj vyšším pokutám. Paktom Euro-plus a reformami ekonomického riadenia, ktorým sa tiež hovorí six-pack, sa tento trend ešte posilní. So zmluvou o uťahovaní opaskov sa škripec naťahuje. Predznamenáva ďalší krok pri vytváraní komplexnej siete smerníc, ktorými sa škrty stávajú všeobecnou odpoveďou na krízu a zasadzujú tvrdý úder európskemu sociálnemu štátu.

Neprejde to však ľahko. To, že zmluvu podpísalo 25 predstaviteľov štátov alebo vlád, ešte neznamená, že je všetko vybavené. Najskôr bude musieť byť zmluva ratifikovaná. A aj keď bola koncipovaná tak, aby bolo možné obísť hlasovanie verejnosti, írska vláda bola prinútená usporiadať koncom tohto roka referendum. Dokonca aj keby bola zmluva ratifikovaná a implementovaná, je pravdepodobné, že sa stretne so značným odporom, najmä keď začnú byť jasné jej dôsledky.

Prevzaté z webu Priateľov Zeme-CEPA. Pôvodný materiál Automatic Austerity (10 things you need to know about the ‘Fiscal Compact’) vydala v marci 2012 organizácia Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO). Táto výskumno-kampaňová skupina odhaľuje a pranieruje privilegovaný prístup korporácií a ich lobistických skupín k politikom a inštitúciám EÚ a ich vplyv na tvorbu politík EÚ. Preklad: Renata Tížiková Nemcová. Foto: Open Europe Blog.


[1] Fiškálna zmluva alebo “Zmluva o stabilite, koordinácii a spravovaní ekonomickej a monetárnej únie”, http://www.european-council.europa.eu/media/579087/treaty.pdf

[2] Tlačová správa ETUC, 31 januára 2012, http://etuc.org/a/9605

[3] Smernica 1466/97, článok 5,

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CONSLEG:1997R1466:20111213:EN:PDF

[4] Štatistiky Eurostatu, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsieb080&plugin=1

[5] Európska ekonomika, občasník č. 65, 2010, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2010/pdf/ocp65_en.pdf

[6] Pakt pre Euro, str. 19, závery Rady, 24-25. marec 2011, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/120296.pdf

[7] O silnej úlohe nezávislých orgánov sa v rámci inštitúcií EU diskutovalo už dlhší čas a zdá sa, že nová legislative je už na obzore.

[8] The Guardian, 30 január 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/30/eu-summit-eurozone-treaty-deal?newsfeed=true

[9] Tlačová správa Eurostatu, 6. február 2012, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-06022012-AP/EN/2-06022012-AP-EN.PDF

[10] Rozhovor s profesorom Jesperom Jespersenom, 24 február 2012.

[11] Európska komisia, Európska ekonomika č. 3, 2006, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication423_en.pdf

[12] Na základe príkladov Pata McArclea; “Eurokríza: fiškálna zmluva a fiškálna politika”, pozičný materiál 6, Institute of International and European Affairs, 2012, str. 13.

http://www.iiea.com/publications/the-euro-crisis-the-fiscal-compact-and-fiscal-policy

[13] Komplexnú kritiku metódy komisie pripravila Dánska národná banka (ekonomické oddelenie): Ann-Louise Winther; “Konjunkturudsving og offentlige finanser”, Kvartalsoversigt, 1. Kvartal 2011 del 1, Danmarks Nationalbank, 2011, pp. 71- 91. https://www.nationalbanken.dk/C1256BE2005737D3/side/7E21A951977D9382C1257855004AE526/$file/konjunkturudsving.pdf

[14] V skutočnosti by v tom nebol žiadny rozdiel. Väčšina v Európskom parlamente by tento postup podporila. Jasne to vyplýva z diskusií v roku 2011 o posiľnení Paktu stability a rastu.

[15] Štatistika Eurostatu; http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsieb080&plugin=1

[16] Výnimku tvoria Švédsko, Fínsko, Estónsko a Luxembursko. Pozri http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/deficit/index_en.htm

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