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Kríza ekonómie (záznam z prednášky)

Nedávno som mal možnosť vystúpiť na svojej alma mater. Tu je záznam z podujatia (vďaka za natočenie Julovi Bosákovi ml.):

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Komentáre (522)

  • AVANTIME 18.04.2012 11:21

    Skoda, ze je zle pocut.

  • em.zpr.ix 18.04.2012 12:33

    pocut sa da ale rozumiet nie

  • dedusko 18.04.2012 13:02

    Rozumiet sa da, ale kto by to pocuval? Tvrda je to rec.

  • julino (TVjetotak) 18.04.2012 13:30

    ospravedlnte prosim kvalitu zvuku, zvuk z mikrofonu sa nedal pouzit..

  • vladicek 18.04.2012 18:08

    skoda ze som nemohol prijst

  • Igor 18.04.2012 18:55

    Dobry den, chcel by som sa opytat ako to vyzera s knihou od pana Vitkovica. Nerad by som totiz o nieco prisiel… Dakujem pekne. I.

  • vlado 18.04.2012 19:32

    štúdium ekonómie = stratený čas.

  • monik 18.04.2012 20:08

    podla mna to bolo plne skepticizmu a zlej energie a pre mladych ludi nulova inspiracia, podkopanie vsetkeho co uci, vsetko je zle atd…o nicom

  • julino (TVjetotak) 18.04.2012 21:27

    zvuk z mikrofonu na stole http://soundcloud.com/n3zavisly/mari-n-vitkovi-kr-za-ekon-mie

  • Gretzky 18.04.2012 21:40

    monik…nic si nepochopil,preto sa to vola kriticka ekonomia.Je to o hladani rieseni a nie o tom ze ti nakoniec povie ze vsetko je krasne a OK.Dnesna ekonomia,aj ekonomika, je tam kde je,v riti.Preto sa treba pytat a kritizovat.To ale neznamena ze nemozes byt optimista ;)

  • Braňo 19.04.2012 19:14

    monik nezufaj,
    vsetko podstatne, co bolo povedane, bolo uplne mimo. Napr.:
    “…pokial (modely) vykazuju nejake pravidelnosti v rozdeleni pravdepodobnosti reakciou tych parametrov su vlastne povazovane za legitimne.”

    To je len zhluk slov z ekonomickej tematiky, ale nedava to vyznam, hoc bol pouzity sofistikovany jazyk.

    MV kritizuje Lucasa a spol, pricom prave Lucasova kritika viedla k tomu, ze aj makroekonomia zacala vyuzivat mikroekonomicke zaklady (to su paradoxne aj tie DSGE modely, ktore su kritizovane na prvom slide).

    Cize naopak pred Lucasom cela makroekonomia bola len o nepouzitelnych velkych (statickych) modeloch s redukovanymi parametrami. Az s Lucasom prisli dynamicke strukturalne modely stojace ma mikro-zakladoch, t.j. paradoxne to, po com srdce MV pisti.

    Tiez nie je pravda, ze by absentoval vyskum o niecom, co MV nazyva trhove struktury – je tu cele odvetvie ekonomie, ktore sa nazyva Industrial Organization.

    A aby som nezabudol. To, ze ekonomia nepredpovedala krizu, ju samozrejme nijako nediskvalifikuje. Obdobne fyzika nepredpovedala zemetrasenie a tsunami v Japonsku a nijako ju to nediskvalifikuje. Navyse, len si skuste predstavit, ze by ekonomia vedela predpovedat buducnost, ze by vedela napr. predpovedat, ze o tri mesiace klesne dopyt ci akciovy trh o 20%. Co by sa asi stalo? Ako by ludia (a firmy) na takuto predpoved zareagovali? A presne o tom je Lucasova kritika.

  • Southbay 19.04.2012 19:32

    Braňo: ekonomia ako veda patri medzi humanitne vedy, cize neexaktne a neoveritelne, iba prirodne vedy maju tuto vysadu. Toto vysvetluje asi vsetko o ekonomii…stale sa tu len niekto pokusa nieco dokazat a ked aj nieco dokaze, tak je to pri takych podmienkach, kde sa vlastne abstrahuje od niecoho (najcastejsie od reality).

    MV ma uplnu pravdu v tom, ze tu ziadna ekonomia neexistuje, vsetko su to len politicke rozhodnutia.

    “Navyse, len si skuste predstavit, ze by ekonomia vedela predpovedat buducnost, ze by vedela napr. predpovedat, ze o tri mesiace klesne dopyt ci akciovy trh o 20%. Co by sa asi stalo? Ako by ludia (a firmy) na takuto predpoved zareagovali?” -> Zaujimave je, ze niekolko ekonomicky najsilnejsich ludi planety to dokaze predpovedat, pretoze najlepsie predpoveda buducnost ten, kto ju tvori. Aj keby to ekonomia zvladla (co nedokaze, pretoze ekonomika ani trhy nevytvaraju udalosti, ale ludia a priroda), tak by rozhodnutie o zverejneni danej informacie bolo zase na ludoch, ktori na to maju dosah.

    K tomu tsunami: zemetrasenie nemusi mat len prirodny charakter.

  • Braňo 19.04.2012 21:04

    Ekonomia testuje hypotezy rovnako ako kazda ina veda. Vedy vo vseobecnosti nic nedokazuju. Ak su prirodne vedy tak vynimocne exaktne, tak preco ten humbuk napriklad okolo klimatologie?

    Ekonomia zahrna pochopitelne aj politicke rozhodnutia, velka cast ekonomie vsak skuma rozhodovanie ludi per se, bez politiky. Asi tazko najdete politiku napr. v znamom clanku Prospect Theory od Kahnemana a Tverskeho.

    Ekonomika a trhy, to su ludia. Ekonomia, to je veda o ludskom konani. Ekonomia nedokaze predpovedat buducnost a varovat ludi pred krizami, pretoze takato predpoved by ovplyvnila a zmenila sucasne konanie ludi a tym by sa povodna predpoved nenaplnila.

    Rozhodnuti o zverejneni danej informacie nestoji na rade tajnych iluminatov, ktori, podla vas, urcite sposobili zemetrasenie a tsunami v Japonsku.

  • channel88 19.04.2012 21:12

    Jako vždy nářez !!! “Bratia slováci”, probuďte se a děkujte bohu, že máte doma takový mozek ! Zdravím Pana Mariana Vitkoviče – veliký obdiv a respekt, hlavně Vaší odvaze …

  • romero 19.04.2012 22:07

    Moznoze Vitkovic je plny skepticizmu a je negativny. A tiez pali z gulometu po vsetkom zivom. No aj keby len cast z toho co hovori bola pravda, tak sa to oplati vypocut, pretoze je to nieco uplne ine ako vsetky tie sracky, co sa na nas siria z medii. Vitkovic sa u mna osobne stava vyznamny clovek. Vazim si ho za jeho odvahu, celkom dost. A pred pol rokom som ho vobec nepoznal. Brano, tie argumenty su smiesne. Ja som ekonomiu nestudoval, ale suhlasim s Vitkovicom v tom, ze to co je na SVK je jednoducho tragikomedia. To, ze za jaku cenu sa predal statny majetok a za jakych okolnosti ale hlavne to efektivne a permanentne vymyvanie mozgov, nicenie strednej vrstvy, alebo uplne potlacanie jej vzostupu, zvysovanie rozdielov, otrokarske fabriky za par supov, miznutie mozgov. Co mna po nejakom Lucasovi? A porovnavat fyzika, co nevie predpovedat cunami? Ha ha ha. Osobne si myslim, ze sa kriza dala predpovedat a dokonca sa aj predpovedala, no ti ludia boli vzdy mimo dosahu hlavneho prudu. Vzdy som volil pravicu a veril som mnozstvu tych vsetkych sraciek, co sa valili od nasich renomovanych ekonomov, ale teraz, ked vidim, ze v mojom okresnom meste nie je ocne oddelenie, dokonca ani v susednom? to ma byt aky progres? kam sme sa dostali? Cele slovensko sa vyprazdnuje. Mozgy odchadzaju do BA, kde sa stavaju rukojemnikmi developerov, bank a celeho tohto choreho matrixu, pricom BA vyzera strasne, vystavba bez koncepcie, bez pridanej hodnoty, minimum zelene a najnovsia novostavba v blizkosti hradu? Dakujem, neprosim,..

  • Braňo 20.04.2012 9:12

    romero,
    Mna vobec netrapi, ci je MV skepticky a negativny. Mna trapi, ze nerozumie tomu o com prednasa a ovplyvnuje dalsich ludi.

    Vy suhlasite s Vitkovicom, ktori tvrdi, ze 1+1=3, lebo ono je to take nemainstreamove? Kazda ucebnica sice tvrdi, ze je to 2, ale to su proste len sracky siriace sa z medii? Toto je velmi zly analyticky aparat na rozoznanie, co je spravne a co nie.

    Samozrejme, vas nezaujima, ci MV v konecnom dosledku aj rozumie tomu o com prednasa, a teda ci je schopny nejaky problem riesit. Vas zaujima, ci hovori to, co chcete pocut. Presne ako kedysi vas nezaujimalo, ci praviciari aj rozumeju ekonomii a ci vedia riesit problemy. Zaujimalo vas len, ze hovorili to, co ste chceli pocut.

    Povedat, ze pride kriza alebo ze bude prsat nie je ziadna predpoved. Predpoved je, ze o tri mesiace v nedelu v popoludnajsich hodinach bude tam a tam padat tolko a tolko zrazok.

    Pointa je vsak v tom, ze ked date takuto predpoved ludom, tak to nijako pocasie nezmeni. Avsak ked date ludom predpoved, ze o tri roky v pondelok pride kriza, tak tu mame problem okamzite. Predstavte si, ze ludia zajtra uveria predpovedi, ze v decembri pride koniec sveta. Isiel by niekto normalne do prace a vsetko by ficalo po starom? Tazko.

    Koniec sveta by teda sa nekonal v decembri, ale hned o par dni. Tym padom by sa povodna predpoved nenaplnila. Povodna predpoved pocasia nedokaze ovplyvnit pocasie, ale predpoved krizy dokaze ovplyvnit vznik a datum krizy. Toto je Lucasov odkaz.

  • Kveto 20.04.2012 9:38

    Braňo
    Ja síce tiež nei som ekonóm, ale porovnamie s predpovedaním počasia nesedí, Veď vo fyzikálnych systémoch tiež poznáme systémy so spätnou väzbou.
    Ak mi niekto povie, že ak na tomto moste odstránim tento nosník a po tom moste budú naďalej jazdiťautá ťažei ako 10 ton, tak z dôvody únavy nateriálu ten most o 10 mesiacov spadne – je to dobrá predpoveď a inžinier statik ju vie dať.. a má pre náas veľkú cenu.
    Ak by boli mainstreamoví ekonómovia povedali, že ak sa finančné trhy budú naďalej nafukovať bubliny s derivátmi, tak dôjde ku kríze – tvrdíte, že koniec sveta by sa konal o pár dní.
    Veď môžeme zakázať po moste jazdiť autám nad 10 ton!
    Navyše všetky tvdrenia mainstreamu o nutnosti takých a onakých opatrení (TINA), nie sú tie náhodou založené na takýchto predpovediach? A nekonajú tie tzv “trhy” tak , že napĺňajú svoje vlastné prepovede?

  • romero 21.04.2012 11:10

    Myslim, ze Kveto to celkom slusne vystihol Brano. Jednoducho a jasne.

    Ja osobne nepredpokladam, alebo inak, som rezervovany a nemyslim si, ze Vitkovic vie uplne vsetko a ze v zasade musi a ma vo vsetkom pravdu. Zvlast ak sa dostava do polemiky s obrovskym mnozstvom ludi, ktori maju nazor opacny alebo iny. Je nutne pripustit, ze je dost vyhraneny. Avsak samotna existencia tohto cloveka je jednoznacne prinosom, pretoze vytvara priestor na rozne otazky, na ktore treba hladat odpoved. Nie je mozne nesuhlasit s tym, ze stav nasej spolocnosti je ubohy a jeho vysvetlenia su vierohodne a davaju mi zmysel. Brano sam si vravel, ze som niekedy niecomu veril, no ako je mozne, ze som zacal verit niecomu inemu? predsa preto, ze po urcitom case som sa vplyvom skutocnosti a vyvoja v nasej spolocnosti musel stotoznit s nazorom odlisnym, rovnako aj so vsetkymi suvislostami. Tazisko Vitkovicovej prace ja osobne vnimam v diagnostike zakladnych problemov nasej spolocnosti, kde realne primarne hra svoju ulohu ekonomia, kde sa u nas jednak neakceptovanim akejkolvek ulohy statu v prospech rozvoja spolocnosti a jednak vytvorenim takmer dokonalych korupcnych schem vytvorila ta bieda, v ktorej zijeme.
    V porovnani s nazormi Miklosa, Sulika, Kanika, Mihala, Oravca a vsetkych “analytikov nasich komercnych bank” mi pride to, co hovori MV ako ziva voda. Ako vec o ktorej sme vlastne vsetci vedeli, no len sme si nahovarali, ze tito su lepsi, aj ked to robia zle…

  • Braňo 21.04.2012 22:06

    Kveto,
    to, ze vo fyzike pozname systemy so spatnou vazbou nijako neimplikuje, ze priklad s pocasim je chybny.

    Druha vec je, ze vase priklady su “podmienene” predpovede. A ekonomia presne taketo podmienene predpovede aj vytvara a mala by ich vytvarat. Ekonomia predpoveda, ze AK skolabuje financny system, tak pride ku krize aj v realnom systeme. Presne ako priklad s mostom: AK po nom prejde auto s nad 10 tonami, tak potom most spadne. Obdobne tu mame predpoved, ze AK sa pohnu litosfericke dosky, tak pride ku zemetraseniu.

    Nikoho vsak nezaujima predpoved, ze ak sa pohnu dosky, tak pride zemetrasenie. Ludi zaujima predpoved, KEDY a KDE presne ku zemetraseniu pride, lebo sa mu chcu vyhnut. Obdobne nikoho velmi nezaujimali podmienene ekonomicke predpovede v clankoch z 90tych rokov, ze ak pride ku problemom vo financnom sektore, tak to ovplyvni aj realny sektor.

    Ludia chcu, aby ekonomia predpovedala krizy a aby ich ekonomovia varovali pred krizami. Ludia chcu NEPODMIENENE predpovede. Ludia chcu aby fyzika predpovedala, kedy presne po vasom moste prejde 10tonove auto a kedy sa teda most zruti. Nuz aj keby fyzika cisto hypoteticky taketo nieco dokazala predpovedat – teda ze most sa zruti dna xy o tej a tej hodine a zverejnila takuto predpoved – tak co sa stane?

    Ak ludia uveria tejto predpovedi, tak v danom momente sa vsetci budu snazit mostu vyhnut a tym padom most nespadne. Tym padom sa vsak ani nenaplnila predpoved fyzikov.

    Cize tak ako v pripade krizy ako aj v pripade mosta vidime, ze predpoved zaroven ovplyvnila konanie. V pripade pocasia ci zemetrasenia to nie je mozne, pretoze tieto fenomeny nezavisia od ludskeho konania.

    Preto si medzinarodne respektovane organizacie davaju velky pozor, aby ich nepodmienene ekonomicke predpovede prepadu HDP neboli pod ocakavaniami trhu. Pretoze ak trh ocakava, ze HDP sa prepadne o 2% a napr. IMF pride s vyhlasenim, ze HDP sa prepadne o 20%, tak tu mame problem. Ak ludia uveria IMF, tak sa HDP skutocne prepadne o 20%, pretoze ludia zacnu predavat akcie, skrtit uvery, atd.

  • saro 23.04.2012 12:52

    Brano nemyslim ze tvoje priklady podmienenych predpovedi sa daju provnavat. Priklad mosta a zemetrasenia nie su predpovede ale nasledne deje. S tym prikladom financneho a realneho sektora sa to neda porovnavat a sice preto ze realne udalosti ovplyvnia financny sektor (napriklad zemetrasenie). Ale ako moze financny sektor vyvolat realnu udalost (zemetrasenie). Realne ovplyvni zase len financny sektor. A dalo by sa to rozviest do podrobnosti ako tam vstupuju intervencie vlad, bank a financnikov ale stale je to len financny sektor nie realny :-) . Aj na priklade z poklesom HDP je jasne ze dolezite je to co bolo prve – skutocny pokles alebo informacia o moznom poklese. A v sucasnosti su informacie skor umele skreslovane opacnym smerom :-) . To je aj skutocny problem nafukovania bubliny.

  • romero 23.04.2012 17:57

    Brano, aj ked v jeho prednaske a vseobecne v jeho posobeni urcite nosnou temou nie je predpovedanie krizy, tak sa tu z toho stava nosna tema. No nevadi. Ja si osobne myslim, ze vobec nejaka kriza moze prijst iba sposobenim vyssej moci – to znamena prirodnymi mechanizmami – sucho, zaplavy, mor. Avsak tato kriza nie je nieco prirodzene, je to vygenerovane prave nezodpovednym posobenim ekonomov, politikov a financnymi korporatnymi skupinami, ktore maju neskutocne bohatstvo, neskutocny vplyv. Ekonomia sa aj podla mna odklonila od svojich prvotnych cielov, dnes je vyslovene zamerana na maximalizaciu zisku a obohatenie sa uzkej skupiny obyvatelstva, naproti prostriedku na proporcionalnu zamestnanost, rovnomerny rozvoj regionov a udrzatelny rozvoj ludskej spolocnosti, vratane zvladnutelnej demografie.

  • Braňo 24.04.2012 8:25

    romero,
    nosnou temou diskusie je dezinterpretacia sucasnej ekonomie (prednaska bola o 40rocnom vyvoji ekonomie). Ekonomia vobec nie je o maximalizacii zisku a uz vobec nedava odporucania ako sa maju uzke skupiny obyvatelstva obohacovat na ukor ostatnych.

    Tu je jeden z najrespektovanejsich zurnalov so vseobecnym zameranim. Mozete si pozriet, co je ekonomia.
    http://ideas.repec.org/s/tpr/qjecon.html

  • peet 24.04.2012 9:51

    Braňo.
    No neviem. Ale to čo píše romero má možno zmysel v tom, že ekonomia, tak ako sa dnes realizuje už ani nie je vedou, ale akýmsi novodobým ópiom národov/náboženstvom, ktoré umožňuje úzkej skupine zarábať na úkor ostatných a ešte tieto zárobky legitimuje ako niečo čo je racionálne, nutné a vedecky opodstatnené.
    Asi namietneš, že ty, alebo tam ten ekonóm to robí poctivo.
    Vieš, kedysi túto úlohu plnilo kresťanstvo. A keď si to rozoberieš, tak zistíš, že aj vtedy vedľa seba stáli Inocent III a sv. František. Jednému slúžilo ako prostriedok na ceste k svetovláde a tomu druhému ako prostriedok pomoci blížnemu.

  • niko 24.04.2012 10:25

    Zachytil niekto meno autora a názov druhej knihy zo záveru prednášky?

  • Skogen 24.04.2012 13:44

    Braňo, prepáč, ale keď podľa súčasnej ekonomickej teórie sú etika a morálka len neúmyselné vedľajšie efekty sprostej honby za čím väčším profitom a najperspektívnejšou vlastnosťou je pachravosť, tak sa nemôžeme čudovať, že to smeruje do veľkej pi….Vítkovič vie, že niečo je zle a nemusí byť ani ekonóm, stačí mu osobná skúsenosť pri práci s politikmi. Ale on navyše ekonóm je, preto si veľa z nás na tomto blogu myslí, že rozumie tomu čo hovorí…. a pokiaľ má byť ekonómia vedou ( podľa niektorých nie je a Nobelova cena za ekonómiu je úplná hovadina … ), tak musia platiť pre ňu isté pravidlá, ktoré naši politici úmyselne ignorujú zo všetkými dôsledkami. A aj o tomto pán Vítkovič hovorí…nemusíš s ním súhlasiť, alebo tvrdiť, že je neomylný….ak sa ti to nepáči, ” vedľa ” má prednášku Ivan Miklóš…ten určite nebude dezinterpretovať súčasnú ekonómiu :-)

  • Ingrid 24.04.2012 14:08

    Kniha: Galbraith John Kenneth (nar. 1908), V dielach Spoločnosť hojnosti, 1958 a Nový industriálny štát, 1967, predkladá víziu moderného kapitalizmu, ktorá odporuje neoklasickým predstavám, šíreným v učebniciach ekonómie. The Affluent Society.

  • pa29so 24.04.2012 17:30

    Mhm, zaujímavé, ale podľa mňa nie najlepšie štrukturované. Nie som ekonóm, sledujem však všetky tieto vystúpenia a zaujíma ma to. Chcel by som počuť Vitkoviča ináč, ale to by musiel chcieť aj on sám. Zdá sa, že už bude pokračovať tak, ako začal.. Škoda, veľká.

  • janko 25.04.2012 6:15

    treba equalizer nastavit na ROCK potom sa to lepsie rozumie,skuste,alebo nastavenie SOFT

  • Braňo 26.04.2012 21:40

    peet,
    pod tym – “ekonomia ako sa realizuje” – myslite politicke opatrenia? Tak za toto len tazko vinit ekonomiu. Pride mi to ako keby sme obvinovali za vojnu napr. v Lybii fyziku, pretoze umoznila vyrobu zbrani.

    Ak chceme kritizovat normativne opatrenia, tak to je nieco uplne ine ako kritizovat pozitivnu ekonomiu (ako vedu).

    A ktora uzka skupina zaraba? Ktori profesori konkretne? Ci opat mate na mysli politikov, ci podnikatelov?

    Skogen,
    mozes mi ozrejmit, ktora konkretna ekonomicka teoria nieco take tvrdi? Lebo opat mi to pride, ze ludia si celu ekonomiu vykladaju ako nabozenstvo, ktore vam kaze spravat sa neeticky pazravo, lebo asi trikrat poculi o Smithovej neviditelnej ruke trhu.

    Inak dobre, ze spominas toho Miklosa. Ten je tiez “ekonom”, vystudoval rovnaku skolu ako Vitkovic, tak preco jemu neveris? Na zaklade coho si sa rozhodol pre Vitkovica? A preco si myslis, ze ak nema pravdu Vitkovic, tak ju ma automaticky Miklos?

    Tragediou Slovenska je to, ze ani Miklos ani Vitkovic nerozumeju ekonomii (i ked Miklos, podla mna, rozumie ekonomii este menej ako MV). Len ludia radi rozmyslaju v takom bud-alebo mode. S tym uz nic nenarobim.

    Pokial sa vam nepacia politicke opatrenia ignorujuce ekonomiu, tak kritizujme politicke opatrenia. Ale Vitkovicova prednaska je o kritike ekonomie ako vedy. A ja tvrdim, ze jeho kritika je faktograficky zla.

  • romero 27.04.2012 15:56

    Nuz Brano, ocenujem, ze sa tu diskutuje kultivovane a slusne, vratane teba. Ocakaval som argument, ze ekonomia je vo svojej podstate v poriadku, to iba politici a ludia, ktori sa hraju na ekonomov zle aplikuju poznatky z ekonomie do praxe. Bohuzial to v ziadnom pripade nie su iba politicke opatrenia. A vobec politicke opatrenia dnes iba ciastocne dokazu korigovat chod tohto systemu, pretoze cely system realne ovlada zopar korporacii, ktore realne rozhoduju v zasade o vsetkom. Chces tvrdit, ze ekonomia ako taka v primarnom svojom pociatku a konci nie je veda o tom ako investovat, dosiahnut zisk, ako zbohatnut, ako toto koleso co najviac otocit za casovu jednotku? Samozrejme za predpokladu tej istej vynalozenej prace jednotlivca, co to riadi. Teda ak budes protestovat, tak ti dam otazku, ze co nam tu dookola hovoria vsetky media a vsetci politici a co si vlastne aj vsetci myslia a veria, ze to tak je? Komu tu bude clovek hovorit ekonom? Cloveku, co rozvija teorie, ktore sa nikdy neaplikuju alebo cloveku, co si to o sebe hovori a realne ma vplyv na chod veci okolo seba v oblasti ekonomiky? Alebo este inak, clovek co pri podnikani zvoli nejaku strategiu ako co najskor zbohatnut? Chces mi tvrdit, ze dnesny stav veci nie je dany aplikaciou ekonomie ako vedy do praxe? A jej absolutnej hegemonie? Ak hovoris o nabozenstve, tak ano, dynamicka zdrava ekonomika, rast HDP, rast zivotnej urovne sa realne povazuje za nabosenstvo. A ktosi tu povedal, ze sucasna ekonomia vsetky tieto procesy legitimizuje. Absolutne sa pritom neberie ohlad na zivotne prostredie, na obrovske rozdiely medzi jednotlivcami, ktore mozu v buducnosti viest len k velkym problemom. Nepochybujem o tom, ze ako vravis ty, ze jestvuje pozitivna ekonomia s mnozstvom serioznych a slusnych teorii, mnozstvom vzdelanych ludi, ktori realne chcu tejto spolocnosti pomoct, no pre mna sa stava nieco iba vtedy skutocnostou, a realnou entitou, ak sa nieco z tohto aplikuje do praxe, inak sa bavime iba v rovine teorie…

    A ak sa bavime o ekonomii ako takej a o osobe Vitkovica, tak musim pripustit, ze jeho slova, hlavne v oblasti vyvoja na SVK mi jednoducho davaju zmysel, pouziva fakty, ktore su realne overitelne na nete. Koresponduju s tym, co vidim okolo seba. A co sa teorie tyka, tak suhlasim s jeho nazorom, ze v ekonomii nema so hladat analyticka matematika, toto mi dava tiez zmysel. Alebo si myslis Brano, ze nas z tychto sirokospektralnych sraciek dostane analyticka matematika alebo iba prakticke uplatnenie zdraveho sedliackeho rozumu?

  • Braňo 27.04.2012 17:50

    romero,
    “Chces tvrdit, ze ekonomia ako taka v primarnom svojom pociatku a konci nie je veda o tom ako investovat, dosiahnut zisk, ako zbohatnut, ako toto koleso co najviac otocit za casovu jednotku?”

    Ano, presne toto chcem tvrdit.

    “Chces mi tvrdit, ze dnesny stav veci nie je dany aplikaciou ekonomie ako vedy do praxe?”

    Cize chces tvrdit, ze vojna v Lybii je dana aplikaciou fyziky do praxe?

    “Ak hovoris o nabozenstve, tak ano, dynamicka zdrava ekonomika, rast HDP, rast zivotnej urovne sa realne povazuje za nabosenstvo.”

    Ako sa to povazuje za nabozenstvo? Niekto sa modli k rastu HDP, ci ako? Ci myslis to, ze rast HDP sa povazuje za automaticky? Tak to je asi nieco trosku ine nez nabozenstvo.

    “Absolutne sa pritom neberie ohlad na zivotne prostredie, na obrovske rozdiely medzi jednotlivcami, ktore mozu v buducnosti viest len k velkym problemom.”

    Teoria verejnych statkov, externalit, atd., to vsetko ma na svedomi prave ekonomia. Urcite tiez poznate napr. Kjotsky protokol a obchod s emisnymi povolenkami, ktory pomaha znizovat emisie.

    Ekonomia sa takisto venuje pricinam a dosledkom prijmovej nerovnosti, ale asi skoda nieco citovat.

    MV nepouziva fakty, ved o tom hovorim. On dezinterpretuje ekonomicke clanky.

    “Alebo si myslis Brano, ze nas z tychto sirokospektralnych sraciek dostane analyticka matematika alebo iba prakticke uplatnenie zdraveho sedliackeho rozumu?”

    Dam vam jednoduchu ekonomicku ulohu. Ak stat prikaze namontovat povinne do aut nejaky novy bezpecnostny prvok, tak mi ako ekonom pomocou zdraveho sedliackeho rozumu dajte predpoved o kolko sa znizia skody.

    Ekonomicky system tvoreny velkym mnozstvom samostatne konajucich ludi je daleko zlozitejsi nez ine prirodne procesy vo fyzike. Ako chcete nieco take zlozite skumat bez pouzitia matematickeho aparatu?

    Osobne si myslim, ze tu ide o frustraciu z negativnych javoiv a vinnik sa nasiel pouzitim zdraveho sedliackeho rozumu v podobe ekonomie, i ked o nej vela nevieme. Nemam pravdu?

  • vlado 27.04.2012 20:24

    Braňo. MV je asi jediný ekonom, ktorý vidí zmysel sedliackeho rozumu v ekonomike. Čím v podstate tvrdí, že štúdium ekonómie nemá zmysel, lebo ekonómom sa može stať hocikto. Čo sposobuje u vačšiny ekonómov nervozitu. V praxi platí pravidlo že: z technika sa lahko stane ekonom, ale naopak to už nefunguje.

  • marián vitkovič 27.04.2012 22:47

    Vážení, som úprimne v dobrom prekvapený, že v pohode a celkom zaujímavo diskutujete k mojej viac – menej disidentskej produkcii. Všeobecne, ja sa do diskusií nezapájam, nemám na to ani chuť ani zmysluplný muster ako sa vyhnúť v podstate istej megamultiplikácii argumentácie pri zrážke s asteroidmi typu Braňa.Bez nároku na komplexnosť dovoľte len pár poznámok, a jeden návrh – 1.osobne trvám na tom že žiadna hodnotovo neutrálna ekonomia per se nemá nárok na existenciu ako veda, to čo reálne može byť na niečo užitočné, je politická ekonomia – tu má romero v podstate kompletne pravdu, 2.medzihry s externalitami, Coasem, Kanehmanom či Sussteinom si strčte kam chcete, to sú často len nudge- marketingy na privatize profits first, socialize costs for long…3.nič proti matematike, štatistike, etc. v ekonomii a iných sociálnych mudrovaniach, pred. napr. Jamesom Heckmanom možem len zasalutovať, ale. ..jump…zmysluplnosť DSGE etc. je asi taká ako vydávanie Calvo – či Rotemberg pricing za /neo/Keynesian tool, inak jasné – Keynes vs Keynesians je kapitálny megaprúser…4.generálne, school- master a inštitucionálna predeterminácia modelov je pravidelne akomodatívna samodebilizácia ktorá v posledných cca 35 rokoch nadobudla pomerne perverzné výnosy z rozsahu a sortimentu – Wall Street in – faculty out a vice versa…5.že by 4. mohlo fungovať začnem máličko pripúštať, ked napr. ECB research staff nám ex post odsimuluje, naresponsuje atd. za napr. 2007 – 2010 že Trichet je kapitálny blb…6.Mikloša mi sem netahajte, toho by som nenechal prehadzovať slides na compe…7.porovnávanie kvality absolventov ma zaujíma asi tak ako aktuálna korelácia madzi mierou zapojenia fajnových PhD do prípravy dilino -consumers -herd manuálov pre súkr. penzijné a zdravotné poisťovne s výškou hypotečných splátok ich vypracovateľov, alebo ako trebárs Valachyho PhD…8.tuším v r. 2000 sme s Honzom Hanouskom na nejakej eastmega konfere vo Varne sledovali nejakého Brazílčana z CERGE jak fachčí na rozpracovaní Renelt -Levine /1994 ?/ a Jan dal – no jo, ešte holuby na Václaváku ako 75. vysvetľ. premenná, to by mohlo vyjít…9.najlepší joke od Braňa je že existuje theory of industrial organization – v 1991 som o tom poctivo naklepal svoju vobec prvú prehľadovú vec – kompletka – od Marschalla- J.M. Clarka -J. Baina -Sylos-Labini,…, a skončil som tuším u contestable markets, Schererovu Handbook of Industrial Organization som pritom ťažko ale predsa zožral, aj vtedy aktuálny antitrust …kua, som myslel že toho káčera po Petržalke už ostal ťahať len Beblavý…10. jasné, ad hominem,red herring, strawman falacy…mám v paži a prenechávam Karpišovi…11. A NAJPODSTATNEJšIE – pozrite- ja si hentie svoje vystúopenia organizujem, platím a tie trápne slides a reči vyrábam úplne sám, kamoš to akurát natočí, čo takto v prvých dvoch júnových týždňoch tohto roka sa stretnúť, doneste i nejaké posily ak chcete, a ukázať priamo v diskusii aký som blb, zorganizujeme, len Braňo nech prejaví záujem,.., možu aj iní, ja sa toho furt dožadujem aby som sám so sebou nediskutoval, ale asi mám lepru…v 2006 som v lampe u hríba na jeho typickú otázku – tak čo by mali ekonomovia urobiť aby im ľudia viac rozumeli a brali ich- povedal – postačí ked budú čestní … Janči Oravec a megaprofesoro Horváth – soros začali koktať a dožadovať sa že šak oni sú čestní, posledný prítomný – Jurzyca, to, ako, obyčajne, kvoli nepochopeniu ani nekomentoval…ja som pri tých mojich samomluvách určite šliapol aj vedľa, ale z ľudí hlupákov robiť nemienim, len kvoli tomu že nejaký expert Clinton si raz odprdol – its economy, stupid… Vdaka že ste to dočítali a nech sa vám darí.

  • romero 28.04.2012 1:40

    Prave som prisiel z mesta…

    No necakal som, ze sa do diskusie zapoji samotny autor. Mile prekvapenie. Pan Vitkovic snad iba jedna poznamka. Poprosil by som komplexnejsiu informovanost ohladom vasich aktivit ako aj ohladom datumu vydania vasej novej knihy. Dvaja kamosi sa ma pytali, ze kedy bude ten krst, kedze vo videu 51 ste avizoval tento piatok 27.4. No nevadi, snad sa dockame. Kazdopadne sa tesim.
    A Brano, dufam ze prijmas hodenu rukavicu, rad sa pri tom slovnom suboji zucastnim.

    A teraz k tvojim reakciam:
    Ak tvrdis nieco ine ako tvoja citacia v prvom odseku tak potom asi nezijeme na jednej planete, teda ak hovorime o praktickej ekonomii.
    Skus mi to vyvratit praktickymi prikladmi.

    Vojna v Lybii a aplikacia fyziky pri vyrobe zbrani, ktore sa tam pouzili ? Myslim, ze toto skutocne vyrazne znizuje uroven tejto diskusie a naozaj som sklamany. Hm, chces povedat, ze ak by v Lybii nebola ropa a Lybia by nebola tranzitna krajina pre migrantov z Afriky, tak by NATO konalo tak promtne ako nekona v pripade Syrie, Jemenu a Bahrajnu ? Alebo v minulosti v pripade Liberie, vychodneho Konga, Ugandy, Rwandy??? A to co som spomenul su politicko-ekonomicke dovody . Alebo to nie su politicko-ekonomicke dovody? :) Ach keby vsetko bolo na pleciach fyzikalnych zakonov, tak tu nie je ziaden problem.
    A vo vsetkych spomenutych konfliktoch sa predalo a pouzilo obrovske mnozstvo zbrani, mimochodom, a neboli to fyzikalne zakony, ktore tie zbrane tam dopravili same od seba…

    Dakujem pekne za Kjoto, toto je skutocne genialny priklad pomoci prirode. Kjotom sa nic nevyriesilo a Kjoto je priklad nemohucnosti svetoveho spolocenstva vobec niekam dospiet. Kjoto podpisala iba Europa a Japonsko, krajiny ktore boli aj predtym pro zelene, no USA, Cina, Rusko, India, cize klucovi hraci to ignoruju. Teda co vyriesilo Kjoto a Kodan? Nic ! A Japonsko popri tom bude dalej lovit velryby a ak by neprisla Fukusima, tak by dalej stavalo tak bezpecne elektrarne bez sekundarneho okruhu. A EU sice bude hlasat zelenu politiku v energetike, no naproti tomu bude pretlacat solarne elektrarne z clankov a veterne elektrarne, ktore su neefektivne a s velkou uhlikovou stopou. Tak co riesi Kjoto?

    A uplna perla na zaver, citujem ta Brano:
    ” Ekonomicky system tvoreny velkym mnozstvom samostatne konajucich ludi je daleko zlozitejsi nez ine prirodne procesy vo fyzike. Ako chcete nieco take zlozite skumat bez pouzitia matematickeho aparatu? ”

    Ak by to takto malo byt Brano tak je takyto system, ako aj kazdy podobny system k nicomu, skratka je to nezmysel. Ak sa chces pustat do filozofickych debat, tak ako si vobec zacal tuto diskusiu, tak si musis davat pozor na chytaky a vlastne goly. Myslim, ze konanie ludi ako aj vsetko co sa v prirode deje sa deje v sulade s prirodnymi zakonmi(hned ako sa to nedeje – akoze sa to nedeje, tak je to zle) a mysliet si ze nieco je nad nimi je absurdne. Inak by si totiz nemohol toto konanie popisat, pretoze matematika sama je prirodna veda a na deje odohravajuce sa v ekonomike je uplne postacujuca klasicka matematika na urovni strednej odbornej skoly s aplikaciou statisky a aritmetiky, ak by to tak nemalo byt, tak ten ekonomicky system je podla mojho skromneho nazoru chory. Skus povedat priklad, ale konkretny. Samozrejme poznam co je to metoda konecnych prvkov alebo diferencialny pocet, tak podme do toho !

  • Braňo 28.04.2012 14:54

    Pan Vitkovic,
    Ja ocenujem prispevok do diskusie, ale nikam sme sa tym neposunuli. Tento prispevok je v rovnakom duchu ako vsetky vystupenia. Vela slov, vela ekonomickych pojmov, vela slavnych mien, ale ziadna jasna kritika.

    Preco nemozte uplne jednoducho napisat, v com je problem DSGE modelov? Vadi vam (ne)strukturalita sokov? Alebo nejake podmienky konkretnych modelov? V com je problem s teriou externalit?

    1. Hodnotovo-neutralna ekonomia nema narok na existenciu ako veda, pretoze uzitocna je len politicka ekonomia?

    Analogicky trvate aj na tom, ze chemia tiez nie je veda?

    2. Tieto “medzihry” ekonomia skuma uz sto rokov, takze opat – v com presne je problem?

    3. Nuz podajte si ruky s praviciarmi, ti tiez tvrdia, ze New-Keynesian model ma s Keynesom spolocnu len rigidnost miezd. Osobne mi je uplne jedno ako sa tento prud nazve, a preto debatu je to uplne irelevantne.

    Klucove je z vas dostat argument, ze preco je dynamicky model vseobecneho ekvilibria nezmyselny.

    4. Znie to uzasne, v tej vete je vsetko – vela anglictiny, sarmantna Stanekovska vulgarnost, zopar odbornych vyrazov, ma to stavu.

    Chyba tomu vsak pointa. Co presne je zle na modeloch?

    6. Miklosa som sem nezatiahol ja. Ale pride mi velmi zaujimave (i ked asi neuzitocne pre politiku) vediet, preco niektori neekonomovia slepo doveruju vam s argumentom, ze ste vystudovany ekonom, a naopak nedoveruju Miklosovi, pricom on vystudoval to iste.

    7. Porovnanie kvality absolventov je irelevantne a ani som ho nespomenul.

    9. Ja nespochybnujem vas prehlad, ja spochybnujem ako uvedene clanky interpretujete.

    Proste je mi uplnou zahadou ako moze niekto, kto vie o existencii ekonomickeho smeru Industrial Organization, napisat, ze ekonomia nestuduje trhove struktury. A navrch k tomu napise, ze ma kompletne nastudovany 1500 stranovy Handbook IO.

    11. Naco organizovat diskusiu s cielom ukazat kde sa MV myli? To tam mam ukazovat clanky, ze aha ludia to nie je pravda, autor clanku tym myslel nieco ine ako tvrdi MV? A vy si pojdete len to svoje a vacsi showman vyhrava? Ci kto ziska viac smsiek, tak bude mensi blb a bude mat pravdu?

    Apropos, co treba robit, aby ludia viac rozumeli ekonomom? Nuz asi to iste, co sa robilo v minulosti, aby ludia viac rozumeli fyzikom.

  • Braňo 28.04.2012 15:39

    romero,
    Priklad vojny v Lybii je analogiou. Tak ako ekonomia prisla s obchodovanim s emisiami, tak fyzika prisla so zbranami.

    Nie je chybou ekonomie, ze ku Kjotskemu protokolu sa nepridali USA, rovnako ako nie je chybou fyziky, ze sa konala vojna v Lybii. Uz si rozumieme?

    Kjotsky protokol obsahoval ekomiou navrhnuty efektivny mechanizmus na znizenie emisii.

    “a neboli to fyzikalne zakony, ktore tie zbrane tam dopravili same od seba…”

    Ved presne o tom hovorim :)

    romero, velmi uprimne, pustat sa s tebou do filozofickej debaty je asi to posledne, co by som chcel.

    Je predsa uplne jedno, ci je konanie ludi k “nicomu” ako si to myslis ty. Takisto netusim o akych nadprirodnych zakonoch pises.

    Vsetko, co hovorim, je, ze z pohladu makroekonomie je ekonomicky system tvoreny vela vela ludmi, pricom tito ludia nie su rovnaki a kazdy z nich ma vela rozhodovacich moznosti. Takyto system je teda velmi velmi zlozity.

    Predstavte si napriklad, ze chcete poctivo analyzovat dynamicky efekt zvysenia dane z prijmu na americku ekonomiku – na jej celkovu produkciu.

    Americka produkcia zavisi od konania 300 milionov jednotlivcov a to neratam, ze aj ludia za hranicou USA ovplyvnuju jej celkovu produkciu (export/import). Kazdy clovek je spotrebitel a niektori zaroven posobia aj vo firmach. Kazdy clovek sa denno-denne rozhoduje kolko pracovat, kolko penazi minat, kolko sporit, ci nakupovat akcie, ci dlhopisy, ci vobec platit dane, ci sa neodstahovat, atd. Kazda firma sa rozhduje kolko ludi zamestnavat, kolko vyrabat, kolko investovat, atd. A toto vsetko dokopy vam este interaguje a vsakovako sa ovplyvnuje. Ako bez matematiky nieco take odhadnut?

    Skutocne netusim, preco by mali byt zlozite systemy chore. Pokial ste sa na strednej odbornej skole ucili aspon dynamicku optimizaciu, tak suhlasim, ze staci aj stredoskolska matematika.

  • marián vitkovič 28.04.2012 23:42

    yes, yes, a sme doma , presne tieto zacyklovania s deliver the point to death som očakával, a ak dovolíte, Braňo, a samozrejme ostatní, ešte raz a stačilo.Akože otázky typu, čo má hodnotovo – neutr. ekonomia s chémiou, Stanek ako muster akejsi vulgarity akože ja /kristepane, Stanek/, Calvo- param. u mňa a jeho implicitné vysvetlenie že ako frčím s austria trolls na Patinkinovom hrbe,…, prepáčte, ja nie som vúl tohto druhu, možno je to len dosledok neočakávanej konzumácie trebárs 4 desín na nadpriemerne teplom Smíchove, fakt neviem.Ad mystériá typu – čo mám proti DSGE – dajte v jednej vete, človeče , ved toto je presne svätý hoblík neomises iluminates – a predsa, a daj, a čo je teda problém s tým goldom, a stručne, a áno , či nie teda ?,,blá, blá, presne ako vždy hovorím kamarátom neekonomom – oni sú nekonečne simplifikačne pýtaví, a limita nekonečna bude vždy 0/ odhliadnuc od objektivistických sraček randovej, haha hoppeho či – nešahajte mi na gulky – slobodného nozicka ako folkloru okolo toho/. Toto myslíte vážne ? Tak len pre poriadok a od múdreho / a poctivého/ – Ricardo Caballero – NBER WP 16429 / 10/2010/- nie je to dlhé, dobre sa to číta, tuším som to aj dávnejšie linkoval v nejakom videu, jeho argumenty voči DSGE a RCB beriem full, kľudne pritvrdím, ale hento je v podstate základ…osobitne odporúčam si nechať vytetovať dve vety zo str. 16 v polovici – Superimposing…its strenght, ja to tu preklepávať celé nebudem, inak , jeho úvahy o enriching core from periphery, networking of panics, Barabásim, a nádejách z post 2008 research o bubbles, crisis, tails etc. nie sú, podľa mojho skrom. názoru podstatné, i am sceptical one here. To by Vám mohlo snád stačiť, structural variables etc.prežili, opa Lucas tiež, iked jasne vidím ako Muth, Brainard a i dobrák Samuelson už naňho čakajú hore s trstenicou…Kľudne budem s Vami dve- tri hodiny mleť o tomto všetkom face to face, a ak by ste náhodou raz došli cestou určite na posilnenie stačíte stráviť mnou odporúčané najnovšie fajnovosti – Eyal Argov et all. – MOISE DSGE Model for the Israeli Economy . DP 2012.06, Bank of Israel – ty mámo , tak to sú fakt makači, do štruktúry napráskali aj Exporters Brand Naming.. . tuším 1. time in history of mankind..no požužlaníčko neskutočné, Stanley Fisher je spokojný, a posledné výlučky Prescotta s McGrattanovou o labor productivity puzzle a zázračných solutions pre US pension system na FED Minneapolis – Edwardovi podľa mňa už kompletne zadrbalo.Mikloš , tituly, absolventi a hentaké haluze – pls,Iváňuša je len second order – formula for transition rent capture s pár deiatkami mladých akože educated reformers roztlieskávačov s Brunckom a Tvaroškom ako bottom troll level, first order, of course, sú takí Boycko, Shleifer, Vishny a ich husbands s Jeľcinovými etc. dlhopismi, uprataní dnes na nejaké Western academia… Research on inequality? Asi mi už zlyháva pamäť, ale v celom CEE regione a možno i v intelektuálne čoraz mľandravejšej Europe som ako prvý začal linkovať Saeza, Pikettyho a dokonca Kumhofa a Poincarého z IMF bezvýznamný ja, vy ostatní ste tuším nestrávili doteraz ani Benaboua…IO ? Oné, ja to video z prednášky teraz searchovať nebudem, som hanblivý, ale aj ked to snád nebolo dobre rozumieť, ja som práveže proklamoval že na dobre rozbehnutú IO a jej potrebné impulzy pre regulation of network industries etc. sa vedome vybodli, Shubik so Schererom sú dnes radi ked možu niečo dať cez Cowles Foundation, kua, to sme dopadli. 1500 strán HofIO ?Jaká wonder, ja predpokladám, že vy tam spráskate kompletného Grillicheho a k tomu aspoň dva bandy nejakého Edward Elgar Critical Readings z makra za 3 mesiace, nicht Wahr ? Musím looknúť na vašu homepage, že ako ste daleko od tých freaks o krámoch a či to má tempo, ináč asi napíšeme švejnarovi, že to chce improvements…No dosť, úprimne , niekedy mám pocit, že posledný žijúci normálny, konzistentný a poctivý ekonom je vlastne už len staručký Henry Aaron na Brookings, ktorý teraz neúnavne vysvetľuje nejakému federalist Judge – jelitu na Supreme Court o čom je reforma zdrav. poistenia v USA…Look at, ja nie som – sedím so sisami na pive Nicholson, ani asistent 185. money teoria – Wallacea, nenárokujem si na nepriestreľnú doslednosť a konzistenciu…moja motivácia bola a je simple – nehrať sa v krajine, kde obsah tzv. gorily /PPC, SPP,atd…/ je zavesený 8-10 rokov legálne na webe úradu vlády a žiadneho novinára, politika,a,.., áno, Braňo, tzv. ekonoma to absolútne nevzrušuje, nehrať sa na Vaňo a chlapci z IFP či NBS – bloomberg news, štrukturálne reformy, konsolid. úsilie , flexibilizácia trhu, blá, blá,.., dilino style. Romero niekde hore presne vyhmátol tento matrix, ja tu žiadny daľší matrix vyrábať nebudem…Ponuka na diskusiu platí trvale, len treba 2-3 týždne dopredu dať vedieť, nech sa to pripraví… žiadny strach, budem milý jak Godzila… kniha/knihy – vážení, bude to určite, sú s tým kadejaké problémy, ktoré tu nebudem rozoberať, ale bez obáv, dám moje najlepšie a jednoducho – catch all. ..vdaka za pozornosť

  • Braňo 29.04.2012 15:07

    Nuz ked dokazal Caballero zosumarizovat svoj clanok do abstraktu, tak by ste to urcite dokazali aj vy.

    Lebo inak to vyzera na typicku dikusiu s libertarianmi zakoncenu obligatnym nepriestrelnym argumentom – “precitaj si Misesa”.

    Ja nechcem point to death, ja chcem jednoduchu a jasnu myslienku. Pretoze stale plati, ze ked nieco nedokazeme podat jednoducho, tak tomu dobre nerozumieme.

    Caballerov clanok som cital, len ma trochu udivuje, preco ste vytiahli prave jeho. Caballero totiz hned od prvej vety pise, ze ho vobec netrapi, ze ekonomia nepredpovedala krizu, kym u vas je to highlight. On tiez tvrdi, ze stale treba davat pozor na Lucasovu kritiku, kym vy ste opacneho nazoru.

    To podstatne, co Caballero vycita DSGE, je nasledovne: research has been in “fine-tuning” mode within the local-maximum of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium world, when we should be in “broad-exploration” mode.

    Cize Caballero nema vyhrady voci DSGE per se, pretoze si je vedomy, ze je dolezite zachytit general equilibrium efekty, ktore v jednoduchom frameworku nezachytite.

    On ma vsak problem s tym, ked sa to zacne brat az prilis vazne. Extremnym prikladom je neoklasicky Business Cycle Accounting, kde kazda odchylka od kanonickeho RBC modelu je podla neoklasikov reprezentaciou roznych tax wedges.

    Ja s nim kludne v tomto suhlasim, avsak to je nieco ine ako povedat, ze DSGE modely su nezmysel.

    Takze palec hore za paradne vecnu a hlavne neosobnu diskusiu, idem ja radsej nieco robit, lebo ma ten Svejnar vyhodi.

  • romero 29.04.2012 18:24

    Hm, Brano musim uznat, ze MV by mohol jasnejsie odpovedat svojimi slovami. Aj ked sa pri tom celkom dobre bavim. Samozrejme ja nemam ani paru o vsetkych tych autoroch a nejakych DSGE, no moj nazor, ze ak je potrebna aplikacia zloziteho medelu, aby si mohol dokladne posudit co sa stane, a aky to bude mat dopad, tak ten system je zly. Skus mi prosim dat jeden prakticky priklad na to, kedy takyto model nieco pozitivne priniesol. Kolko stal, kto ho realizoval, kolko penazi priniesol. Vazne toto ma zaujima.
    Pojem “dynamicka optimalizacia” nepoznam. Z ktorej oblasti matematiky pochadza? Na technike sme mali pomerne obsirnu matematiku.
    Osobne sa priklanam k nazoru, ze by som najradsej zacal uplne od znova a vyhlasil sucasnu ekonomiu za historicky omyl. Tento system je neudrzatelny a som hlboko presvedceny, ze jednym z hlavnych dovodov je aplikacia cisto fundamentalneho ekonomickeho vzdelania(takmer bez ohladu na dopady) v praxi. Ludia sa od prirody rodia dobri aj zli a ekonomia dala bohuzial obrovsku silu, nastroj tym chamtivym. Nastroj ako ziskat obrovske prostriedky, ako nicit drobnu konkurenciu, zivotne prostredie. Je to matrix, ktory tu mame. Klimaticke zmeny, USA s 3456. kvantitativnym uvolnovanim, Cina, ktora si uspesne nici svoje zivotne prostredie a 80% obyvatelstva su na urovni modernych otrokov, nasleduje ju India a cely svet porpepletany korporaciami, bez nejakej serioznej vizie pre toto ludstvo. Ak chces pochybovat o skutocnosti, ze rast HDP nie je momentalne svetovym nabozenstvom, tak neviem. Ako by v spolocnosti vypadal clovek, ktory by si dovolil tvrdit, ze je to nebezpecne a polemicke? Ako kacir a hlupak !
    Lybiu som spomenul zamerne, pretoze si ju ako prvy spomenul ty, ja samozrejme suhlasim, ze to nie je problem fyziky, avsak zaroven tvrdim, ze je to problem ekonomie, a jej aplikacie do praxe. Kde sa nebralo roky ohlad na to, ze jake hovado je Kaddafi a zapad od neho v pohode dovazal ropu a vychod mu v pohode vyvazal roky zbrane vratane CSSR. Boli to predovsetkym ekonomicke dovody. Najdi mi prosim nejake ekonomicke studie, ktore tento chory proces niekedy spochybnili. Ak sa tu vobec co i len snazis nieco riesit o zodpovednosti nejakej vednej discipliny za vyvoj zbrani, tak musis vzdy zacat a skoncit s ekonomiou, pretoze bez zdrojov a zameru, ekomomickeho zameru by nebol vyvoj a ani aplikacia do praxe. Nikdy.
    Kjoto bol Brano naozaj velmi zly priklad, velmi zly. Ekonomovia podla mna nic nevymysleli. Kjoto je len ubohe mimikri. A tvoja veta : “Nie je chybou ekonomie, ze ku Kjotskemu protokolu sa nepridali USA” je skutocne v prikrom rozpore so slovami americkej delegacie, ze pristupenie ku Kjotskemu protokolu by malo negativny vplyv na americku ekonomiku a rast HDP. Alebo chces tvrdit, ze realne ekonomicke dovody americkej delagacie nie su chybou ekonomie ako takej? Jej dlhorocneho zleho chapania a legitmizacie vsetkych procesov vobec existenciou tejto vednej discipliny, jej kazdodennej aplikacie do praxe? Fakt, toto ma vazne zaujima Brano :) Kjoto je skutocne jednym s najjasnejsich prikladov neexistencie realnej opozicie oproti klasikcej mainstreemovej ekonomie, tak ako sa chape a tak ako sa realne aplikuje.
    Som SZČO a pocas mojho podnikania mozem povedat len jedno. Celu dobu pozorujem jeden trend, ludi coraz menej zaujima kvalita a dlhodoby efekt prace, pripadne dlhodoba navratnost(moralne hladisku iba nestastnym omylom) ale iba cena a termin, a toto je globalny problem. Toto je dosledok ekonomie a jej aplikacie v praxi…moralka je mrtva, nech ziju peniaze a rast HDP !

  • decentny uhor 30.04.2012 1:42

    Brano – pisali ste, ze problem je v tej spatnej vazbe. ak ludom poviete predpoved, tak zmenia spravanie a je problem. moja otazka je, ci to potom neznamena, ze cela ekonomia je velmi pochybna, kedze akekolvek a akokolvek velmi pozitivne tvrdenie o nejakom spolocenskom jave/ludskom konani v podmienkach vzacnosti, je vzdy viac ci menej predpovedou, ktorej ludia prisposobuju svoje spravanie. ze akonahle ludia porozumeju a prijmu nejake ekonomicke tvrdenie (nie normativne, cisto pozitivne), zmeni sa ich spravanie a tym prestava platit aj to povodne tvrdenie. nenahana ekonomia svoj vlastny chvost? za takychto podmienok by paradoxne ekonomia bola vedou o to viac, o co menej ludi by jej rozumelo aspon na tej urovni, aby na nej (hoci aj mylne) mohli zalozit svoje konanie. ci mylim sa?

  • peet 30.04.2012 6:22

    Braňo,
    mám dojem, že som sa vyjadril úplne jasne.
    O ekonómii píšem ako o vede, prípadne vedeckej komunite. Spomenul si fyziku a preto ju použijem ako isté podobenstvo. Fyzika jestvuje už 2500 rokov a prešla rôznymi obdobiami a to aj obdobiami, keď bola pod silnou ideologickou kontrolou mocenských elít. Najznámejším príkladom je Galileo, ktorý vytvoril istý koncept. Tento však bol v kontinentálnej Európe ignorovaný 150 rokov. Nie, že by ho vedci nepoznali, len ho v snahe vyhnúť sa problémom neučili, nekázali, neprezentovali. A tak i dnes ekonómia ako veda prezentuje len istý ekonomický koncept/je to jav hlavne v bývalých soc. krajinách/, ktorý vyhovuje mocenským elitám/tým nemyslím vlády, ale najbohatšie 1%/. Je proste dôležité si uvedomiť, že každá veda funguje na báze súťaženia rôznych vedeckých konceptov a posprávne by, mal víťaziť ten, ktorý dosahuje najlepšie výsledky pri vysvetľovaní spoločenských/prírodných javov. Ale výsledky súčasnej paradigmy ekonomickej vedy sú také katastrofálne, že jej udržiavanie možno vysvetľovať jedine skorumpovanosťou vedeckej komunity

  • humencan 30.04.2012 6:29

    Priatelia.
    Ako ne-ekonóm, ale s prepáčením manažér potrebujem pár pevných bodov a pravidiel, aby sme prežili rok. Pán Brunovský z mat-fyz, mi pred 10 rokmi na adresu ekonomickej unevirzity povedal, že tam riešia ” business administration “. Prvý výkričník, že bacha. Jeden známy ekonom z cerge mi povedal taký príklad ekonomického výskumu. Bush administratíva chcela znížiť kriminalitu a zadala research chicago boys. Výsledok ? Predpkladal som modely, parametre, premenné… Odpoveď : starajte sa o matky s deťmi do 6 rokov – to je najkritckejšie obdobie v hlave mladého človeka a tam vznika tendencia ku kriminalite ako ju chápe spoločnosť. takže ekonomia je spoločenská veda.

  • Gretzky 30.04.2012 8:28

    Problem je ze veda produkuje VZDY viac otazok ako odpovedi,exaktna,spolocenska alebo akakolvek ina.Vsetko je to len hranie sa so slovickami.Veda je v prvom rade proces spoznavania od subjektivneho k obejktivnemu a zase naopak.V podstate (mozno aj) nekonecny proces.Veda nikdy nehovori o tom ci je nieco pravdive alebo nie.Samozrejme treba si uvedomit casove hladisko,teda ak bude nieco pravda dnes nemusi to platit zajtra alebo o sto rokov.Fyzika ale aj vsetky ostatne vedy su toho nazornym prikladom.Jedine o com veda skutocne hovori je sebakonzistencia pozorovaneho ci uz javu alebo deja.Cize ak sa nieco zopakuje 1000 krat,za rovnakych podmienok, s rovnakym vysledkom mozem to povazovat za istotu ,mozno aj zakon.Toto je v ekonomii podla mna nemozne kedze ludske spravanie je dynamicke,neustale sa meniace,specialne v dnesnej dobe.A ekonomia je predovsetkym o ludskom konani a spravani.Ked raz vystrelim z dela projektil tak pri zachovani podmienok dopadne vzdy viac menej do rovnakeho bodu.Ked vyslovite nejaky argument alebo teoriu v ekonomii vzdy to casom skonci niekde inde.Kazdy si to zinterpretuje po svojom.Mimochodom tak ako Newtonovu fyziku pozmenil Einstein a priniesol viacej svetla do vysvetlovania vesmiru ako takeho,tak sa ukazuje ze ani Einstein nemal tu konecnu “pravdu” a veci su omnoho zlozitejsie a komplexnejsie.Nehovoriac o tom ze fyzika nevysvetluje co to je gravitacia alebo hmota alebo vesmir.Moze ich len vzajomne porovnavat a pozorovat ich zmeny.Cize s tou vedou je to take vselijake.No a s ekonomiou detto ;) Ekonomom vobec nezavidim ich pracu.Hlavne ak maju produkovat nejake relevantne zavery alebo predpovede ktore potom urcuju osudy jednotlivcov,narodov a nakoniec celej planety.Bude to este cele velmi zaujimave.Vitkovicove prednasky su podla mna velmi hodnotne minimalne v tom ze nutia cloveka sa zamysliet nad vecami,porovnavat, byt zdravo kriticky a pokial mozno co naobjektivnejsi, co by malo viest aj k co najoptimalnejsim rieseniam toho ze ako dalej s touto nasou malou ,krasnou krajinkou….takze drzim palce ;)

  • Sitting Bull 30.04.2012 16:58

    páni akademici, vyriešim to za vás, voľne parafrázujúc jedného britského politika…ekonóm je chlapík, ktorý pozná 365 spôsobov ako sa milovať so ženou, akurát ešte žiadnu nestretol :-)

  • Braňo 30.04.2012 23:03

    romero,
    “ak je potrebna aplikacia zloziteho medelu, aby si mohol dokladne posudit co sa stane, a aky to bude mat dopad, tak ten system je zly”

    Tak to sa obratte na vyssiu moc, ona tento system stvorila :) Ekonomia nemoze zato, ze kazdy clovek ma vlastnu hlavu a vela rozhodovacich moznosti.

    Vy zijete v predstave, ze tu nejaka ekonomia vytvorila system. To je dost tazky omyl. Smith ci Hume nic nevytvorili, len sa snazili opisat konanie ludi okolo seba.

    Ved ekonomia dodnes nevie uplne presne odpovedat na otazku, preco zacalo rast HDP permanentne prave v Anglicku a preco nezacalo rast permanentne uz skor. Kazdopadne HDP rastie same od seba a dost dobre si neviem predstavit svet, v ktorom chce niekto dosiahnut trvaly pokles prijmov, resp. jeho stagnaciu. Inak doporucujem tiez precitat novy prispevok na jetotak od Briskara, ktory pise o raste spotreby:
    http://blog.jetotak.sk/kriticka-ekonomia/2012/04/30/juraj-briskar-moralizujuca-ekonomia/

    Bezpravne nicenie konkurencie je dosledkom ignoracie ekonomie (kazdy student ekonomie musi ovladat spravanie monopolu a jeho mozne negativne nasledky). Obdobne je dosledkom ignoracie ekonomie nicenie zivotneho prostredia (kazdy student musi ovladat ucivo o externalitach).

    “Ekonomovia podla mna nic nevymysleli.”

    Tak s tymto ja ale uz nic neurobim. Ak niekto popiera ocividny fakt, tak tu uz je tazko o niecom debatovat.

    Na jednej strane neverite jasnemu faktu, ze ekonomovia vymysleli efektivny mechanizmus znizenia emisii, ale na druhej strane verite casti americkej delegacii okolo Busha (ano, republikani su sponozorovani energetickym priemyslom, kym demokrati naopak financnym priemyslom) a ich reciach o zniceni americkej ekonomiky Kjotom.

    Tu si mozte precitat ako dokonca Bushov ekonomicky poradca Mankiw obhahuje uhlikove dane s tym, ze prenesnie zdanenia na znecistenie ma okrem inych plusov aj pozitivny efekt na rast HDP. Objasnenie tychto mechanizmov je mimochodom zasluha aj teoretickych modelov.
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/10/pigou-club-manifesto.html

    Je teda uplne jasne, ze kazdodenna prax ekonomiu totalne ignoruje. A v zivote som sa nestretol v ekonomii s odporucanim, ze ludia by mali byt nemoralni.

    Ak vnucik okradne starenku o 10 eur, tak su to tiez ekonomicke dovody, ale tvrdit, ze zato moze ekonomia a jej zavadzanie do praxe, je uplne chore.

    Preco by mali ekonomicke studie spochybnovat predaj zbrani do Libye? Co je to za nonsense? Ved to je cisto eticka otazka. Ukazte mi fyzikalne studie, ktore spochybnuju chory proces sirenia detskej pornografie na internete, ktory fyzici vymysleli.

  • romero 01.05.2012 7:36

    Brano, ak hovoris, ze: “kazdodenna prax ekonomiu totalne ignoruje” , tak potom k comu ekonomia je? :) Ba co viac, najviac ju ignoruju jej absolventi, aspon, tak ako to vidim ja v kazdodennej praxi :) Alebo ti, co si tak hovoria, drviva vacsina z nich ma ekonomicke vzdelanie, hm, vysvetli tento paradox…

    Mne je uplne jasne, ze ak by sa ekonomia chapala spravne a na toto Brano zabudas, ked ma velakrat citujes, ak by sa ekonomia chapala spravne, to znamena, ze aj s dlhodobym horizontom, tak to tu nevyzera tak ako to tu vyzera. Ekonomia je v mojom ponimani iba sucha uctovna uzavierka, kde si vie kazdy pred tym ako ide nieco robit a potom skratka a dobre veci spocitat. Nic, viac a nic menej s prihliadnutim, ze ak si znici prirodu a moralku, tak to bude v buducnosti ovela drahsie.

    To, ze nejaky ekonom vymyslel nejaky model s obchodovanim s emisiami, ktory vlastne nikdy nebol uvedeny do praxe v statoch s najsilnejsou ekonomikou mam povazovat za uspesny vynalez ? Preco?

    A ziadal som ta o konkretny priklad na tie vypoctove modely, zabudol si, alebo si si nevsimol ? :)

    Na mojom tvrdeni, ze ak sa system stava taky zlozity, ze na neho potrebujes tie svoje modely trvam, snad k tomuto osvieteniu niekedy prijdes aj ty, ale caka ta este dlhy casovy obluk, co je prirodzene…

  • romero 01.05.2012 8:34

    Este k tomu Kjotu. Bol som na jednej z prvych odbornych prednaskach na tuto temu na SVK a s nadsenim som prijmal tento model a pocuval som cloveka, ktory na SVK ako prvy zrealizoval obchod s emisiami. No po case som pochopil, ze o com cely tento cirkus je. Brano prosim vysvetli mi, kolko percent tovaru, ktory kazdy europan a Japonec spotrebuje je primarne vyrobeny v EU a Japonsku, kolko v Cine, Indii, Indonezii…? Alebo tym, ze si nejaky europan kupi tovar v EU z Ciny vlastne on akoze neposkodzuje zivotne prostredie, to akoze iba Cina je taka blba? Kolko fabrik s EU a Japonska ma svoje vyrobne kapacity v Cine a Indii? Dansko bude nieco trepat o tom, ze ake je pokrokove a ze kolko domacnosti funguje na principe kogeneracie, no uplne zabuda na MAERSK… Hovoril si o efektivnom modeli, efekt sa vsak nedostavil, takze pracujes v rovine hmlistej teorie. Ako mozes povazovat nieco za efektivne, ked to po uvedeni do praxe vlastne nefunguje a ked sa pocas platnosti Kjotskeho protokolu emisie CO2 zvysili, dramaticky.

    Toho Briskara som cital. Ja si skor Brano neviem predstavit permanenty rast HDP. Pri zvysujucom sa pocte populacie a tych istych zdrojoch je neudrzatelny. To by sme museli kolonizaovat dalsie planety a znicit si najskor svoju. Radsej si predstavim prisnu regulaciu spotreby ako to, ze sa tu navzajom vsetci pozabijame, aby sme mohli znovu mat co jest a nicit, ak ratas s tymto, tak OK…

    A prosim Brano, davaj si pozor na fakty, v Kodani nebol Bush ale Obama a ten medzi republikanov nepatri :)

  • Braňo 01.05.2012 11:07

    decentny uhor,
    Pokial je predpoved postavena nie na redukovanych parametroch adhoc ekonometrickych modelov, ale na strukturalnych parametroch majucich oporu v mikro modeloch zacinajucich na preferenciach ludi, firiem, atd. tak v tom nie je problem.

    Dolezitym prvkom su aj racionalne ocakavania agentov (to znamena, ze ludia su v priemere dobri prognozovatelia, nemylia sa systematicky len na jednu stranu). Ak je predikcia modelu v sulade s racionalnymi ocakavaniami trhu, tak zverejnenie predikcie nezmeni spravanie ludi.

  • Braňo 01.05.2012 11:39

    romero,
    “Alebo ti, co si tak hovoria, drviva vacsina z nich ma ekonomicke vzdelanie, hm, vysvetli tento paradox…”

    Mas pravdu, ze absolventi slovenskych ekonomickych skol ekonomiu ignoruju. Vysvetlenie tohto paradoxu je velmi jednoduche. Na slovenskych skolach sa neuci ekonomia.

    “Ekonomia je v mojom ponimani iba sucha uctovna uzavierka, kde si vie kazdy pred tym ako ide nieco robit a potom skratka a dobre veci spocitat.”

    Ano, toto je nazor vacsiny ludi na Slovensku: ekonom je uctovnik. Ludia a ani vacsina profesorov nema predstavu, co je skutocne ekonomia. Uz som pisal vyssie, ze tvoja frustracia prameni najma z toho, ze mas mylne predstavy o ekonomii.

    Ekonomia vymyslela nakladovo efektivny mechanizmus znizenia emisii, cize usetrila tvoje peniaze. Preto by si to mohol ocenit. Navyse niektore federalne staty USA samostatne obchoduju s emisiami.

    Ak chces priklad modelu, tak mozme ostat pri spominanych DSGE. Tu je model Quadrinniho, ktory popisuje mechanizmus ako sa sok na financnom trhu odrazi v realnej ekonomike:
    http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~quadrini/papers/CSpap.pdf

    “Na mojom tvrdeni, ze ak sa system stava taky zlozity, ze na neho potrebujes tie svoje modely trvam, snad k tomuto osvieteniu niekedy prijdes aj ty, ale caka ta este dlhy casovy obluk, co je prirodzene…”

    Usetril by si mi cas a dal by som ti za pravdu, ak by si napisal aj nejaky argument, ze preco na tom trvas.

    Ja som bol tiez na jednej z prvych prednasok o Kjote na Slovensku, kedze som o tom pisal pracu.

    Pointa investovania do enviro rieseni v rozvojovych statoch je o tom, ze z fyzikalneho hladiska je uplne jedno, kde na svete sa znizia emisie, pretoze ony sa vo vzduchu rozlozia relativne rovnomerne. Ekonomovia teda argumentovali, ze je najefektivnejsie znizovat emisie v tych statoch, kde je to najlacnejsie. A to su prave rozvojove staty.

    “Pri zvysujucom sa pocte populacie a tych istych zdrojoch je neudrzatelny. ”

    To si myslel aj Malthus (pred 200 rokmi). Navyse si myslim, ze tvoja prisna regulacia spotreby by viedla k zniceniu planety a zabijaniu. Ak si, podla tvojej logiky, predstavime chladnicku s konstantnym mnozstvom zdrojov, tak prisna regulacia znamena, ze kazdy musi dostavat menej a menej jedla denne, co nakoniec povedie k zabijaniu a niceniu.

    PS: Kjoto podpisal Clinton, nie Obama.

  • romero 01.05.2012 16:07

    Brano ja sa naozaj nemienim zdrziavat na slovenskom piesocku, pokial ide o globalne argumenty, tymi ludmi s ekonomickym vzdelanim myslim vsetkych hracov, co maju realny vplyv na veci okolo seba. Na SVK predsa okrem Penty, J and T ziadny slovak nema vplyv na nic podstatne.

    Co sa tyka mojej definicie ekonomie, tak ako ju vnimam ja(tak ako teraz nefunguje), tak tam ti chyba este ten podstatny dovetok, poprosim nevynechavat. A ak by to chapali ludia na SVK ale aj kdekolvek inde rovnako, tak sme niekde inde. Okrem toho by som samozrejme pridal ako som uz bol spominal statistiku a sociologicke prieskumy. Nieco na pomezi aritmetiky, sociologie a statistiky. Taka prakticka prirucka, ako dobre srpavovat krajinu a ako dobre hospodarit. Nic viac.

    Brano ak sme pri tom vypoctovom modeli, alebo nejakej dynamickej optimalizacii, ja chcem po tebe jeden prakticky priklad, z konkretnej krajiny, kolko stal, kto ho realizoval a kolko penazi usetril, finito.

    Vysvetli toto:
    “Ekonomia vymyslela nakladovo efektivny mechanizmus znizenia emisii, cize usetrila tvoje peniaze. Preto by si to mohol ocenit. Navyse niektore federalne staty USA samostatne obchoduju s emisiami.”

    Za predpokladu, ze od podpisania Kjota vzrastli emisie CO2 dramaticky ? Ako moze byt to, co vlastne nefunguje efektivne? A ak myslis nejaku Juznu Dakotu alebo Nebrasku ? :) Nedaj sa vysmiat. A aj keby obchodoval Texas, co sa stane, z dovodov, ktore som spomenul? nic. Kjoto pre Cinu a Indiu este nie je zavazne a co je to potom za dohoda, ked to neplati pre dva a pol miliardy obyvatelov s navacsim predpokladanym narastom ekonomiky v dlhodobom horizonte, kde vsetci parkuju svoje investicie?

    Velmi pekne by som poprosil o vysvetlenie o pojem “enviroriesenie” v rozvojovych statoch? Pre mna je to az na par drobnych rieseni, pojem neznamy. Skus percentualne vyjadrit enviro a neenviro riesenia ! Pre mna osobne je to o prikladach ako tazba Coltanu vo vychodnom Kongu, nasadenie Nilskeho Karasa vo Viktorinom jazere a aplikacia geneticky modifikovanych potravin a enviro-tazba dreva v Juznej Amerike. Vies vobec nieco o tychto “genialnych envirorieseniach” ? Od toho sa da zhruba odvodit ako vsetky “enviroriesenia” vypadaju.
    Ako sa preboha znizuju emisie CO2 v Indii a Cine? Z coho asi tak vyrabaju elektricku energiu? Predovsetkym z tepelnych elektrarni a ucinnost paroplynoveho cyklu je cca max 51%, ale aj keby bola 100, vzdy to bude vela na take velke krajiny. A je riesenie stavat vodne elektrarne o vykonu 20GW?(Gabcikovo ma 0,72) Kde zaplavis najurodnejsiu zem v oblasti Zltej rieky? Prosim, som zvedavy velmi na tie enviro riesenia.

    Maltus to povedal pred 200 rokmi, no a co? Kolko ludi vo vojnach od vtedy zomrelo a kolko predtym? Zrataj si vsetky konflikty za celu historiu ludstva. Kolko vojen z toho malo ekonomicke pohnutky? Dakujem za prihravku :) Z coho chces nakrmit ludi dnes a z coho o 10 rokov pri rovnakom konstantnom raste HDP?

    A na tu tezu o zlozitosti systemu sa da, co sa pytas, prijst iba vlastnym vyvojom a sebapoznanim, je zbytocne ti to vysvetlovat, ak si na to neprisiel este sam, no mozem sa pokusit.
    Moj nazor je ten, ze ak je nieco prilis zlozite na pochopenie, ini ludia sa ti budu snazit vnutit svoj nazor a z teba robit hlupaka, pretoze ti budu vraviet, ze tomu skratka nerozumies a ze to mas nechat na nich a toto tu mame v plnej krase teraz. Clovek sa nechal nalakat na cukriky a popri tom zabuda na to, ze ma aj vlastny rozum a ze vlastne nie je stastny. Ja neverim na zlozitost systemu, pretoze ziadny zlozity system nemoze fungovat, iba jednoduche a prehladne vztahy mozu viest k dobremu vyvoju spolocnosti, bez vytvarania neumernych rozdielov medzi jedincami.

    A Brano? Co sem pleties Clintona? Bol Clinton v Kodani? Nebol. Ty spomenies ako priklad Busha, ze to on a jeho zla republikanska administrativa ovladana energetickymi koncernami, ja ti poviem, ze v Kodani to ale nepodpisal Obama z opacneho tabora a Ty sa ako na protest presunies este uplne do minulosti, ked to skrabol Clinton? A Clinton bol tiez za republikanov? To co je za argumentacia? A vobec, co ked to podpisal, dobre vies, ze to USA neratifikovali a maju to uplne na haku.

  • mavar 09.05.2012 9:39

    Do debaty sa zapajat nebudem, kedze za vsetkym stoji ludska chamtivost zamerana na cokolvek a vtedy argumenty stracaju vyznam, v takychto situaciach ciastocne pomohli revolucie, ale aj tie sa vzdy otocia a chamtivost sa zacne tlacit do popredia, ale to je nepodstatne :) )

    Podstatne je:
    kedy bude kniha ?
    kde bude dostupna?
    ako sa dostanem k podpisanemu vytlacku ak zmeskam krst knihy ?

    Hlavne tu knihu treba trosku propagovat aspon nejaku stranku pripravit, kde by boli nejake zakladne informacie, lebo takto sa o nej dozvie iba par nadsencov co sem zabludi a patra po tom, tak ako napriklad ja :)
    Pretoze ako je uz beznym zvykom, informacie ohladom prednasok, diskusii atd. su vzdy tak dokonale utajene, ze treba hladat viac ako je slusne.
    Jednoducha stranka, jednoduchy rozvrh prednasok atd., info o knihe atd., hlavne aby to prehladne.

    V kazdom pripade je to zo strany p. Vitkovica dobrocinna cinnost.

    Poukazat na hlupost sa dnes nevyplaca lebo by si to mohlo vsimnut vacsie mnozstvo ludi a zacat premyslat.

  • vlado 09.05.2012 16:11

    Taktiez cakam na tu knihu. Som zvedavy ako bude presna a podrobna. Ten kto ju vytlaci vlastne kope do jedovateho hada bosou nohou. Bude to odvazny cin. Drzim palce.

  • janko 14.05.2012 21:02

    Pan Vitkovic chcem sa vas spitat ci by mohla fungovat bezurokova ekonomika ako v nemecku po 2.svetovej vojne?, alebo hocijaky model bezurokovej ekonomiky?

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  • Tyson 25.03.2017 10:05

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  • Lucky 25.03.2017 18:54

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  • Carlton 26.03.2017 4:27

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  • Roderick 26.03.2017 8:00

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