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Nedomyslená privatizácia dôchodkov

Druhá vlna dôchodkových reforiem v strednej Európe

Nástupom hospodárskej krízy v roku 2008 sa viacero štátov strednej a východnej Európy ocitlo behom niekoľkých mesiacov v nezávideniahodnej situácii. Pri dvojcifernom medziročnom poklese hrubého domáceho produktu[1] a neschopnosti refinancovať svoj dlh sa všetky tri baltické štáty rozhodli dočasne znížiť príspevky do druhého dôchodkového piliera. K zníženiu percenta odvodov do druhého piliera pristúpilo v roku 2011 aj Poľsko.

Maďarsko sa rozhodlo realizovať podstatne ďalekosiahlejšiu zmenu svojho systému starobného zabezpečenia. Orbánova vláda pristúpila k de facto uzavretiu druhého piliera a znárodneniu už naakumulovaných úspor koncom roka 2010 a proces realizácie týchto zmien prebiehal postupne počas roku 2011. Tieto kroky prebiehali za hlasnej kritiky maďarskej opozície a médií.

Málokto však vie, že prví, ktorí v Maďarsku prišli s nápadom uzavrieť druhý pilier po vyše desaťročnom fungovaní, boli práve odborníci blízki dnešnej najväčšej opozičnej strane MSzP (Magyar Szocialista Párt – Maďarská Socialistická Strana). Tá koncom deväťdesiatych rokov prechod na trojpilierový model odštartovala. Myšlienka zrušiť druhý pilier sa prvýkrát objavila v článku Jánosa Kuna, v ktorom tento vtedajší zamestnanec Úradu vlády MR písal o chybných predpokladoch, na ktorých sa postavila dôchodková reforma, a o nezmyselnosti a nerealizovateľnosti prechodu zo zrelého priebežného systému na trojpilierový systém. Ďalším významným podporovateľom uzavretia druhého piliera bol aj ekonóm György Surányi, ktorý pôsobil na poste guvernéra maďarskej centrálnej banky počas koaličnej vlády liberálov a socialistov medzi rokmi 1994 až 1998.

Tento vývoj ukazuje, že kroky vlád štátov strednej a východnej Európy – aj keď úzko súviseli s akútnou potrebou získať peniaze – boli sčasti motivované aj pochopením dlhodobých následkov búrania zrelého priebežného systému dôchodkového zabezpečenia a jeho nahradenia súkromným sporením. Prameňom čiastočnej názorovej premeny na starne MSzP bolo poznanie, že maďarský druhý pilier nenapĺňa očakávania s ním spojené. Parafrázujúc Jánosa Kuna (2009), sliepka nezniesla zlaté vajcia. Kun (2009) vo svojej analýze stavu maďarského penzijného systému vychádza z empiricky pozorovanej reality. Zdôrazňuje existenciu cirkulárneho pohybu peňazí kvôli penzijnej reforme, kedy dlh vznikajúci kvôli existencii druhého piliera je krytý nákupom štátnych dlhopisov práve dôchodkovými fondmi.[2] Ďalej poukazuje na nízke reálne výnosy a na značnú volatilitu hodnoty portfólia dôchodkových fondov.

Maďarský druhý pilier naozaj nenaplnil očakávania s ním spojené. Je však otázne, či dôchodkové sporenie ako hospodárska politika vôbec môže tieto očakávania naplniť. Prameňom možných problémov prvého piliera je predpokladaný pokles outputu zapríčinený poklesom aktívnej časti obyvateľstva pri náraste počtu dôchodcov. Sporenie na dôchodkových účtoch tento problém nijako nerieši. V podmienkach uzavretej ekonomiky povedie nárast spotreby krytý nahromadenými úsporami a súčasne pokles outputu k inflácii, a teda aj k poklesu kúpyschopnosti dôchodkov, či už z prvého alebo z druhého piliera. Z tohto hľadiska je úplne jedno či sú dôchodky poskytované štátom z odvodov, alebo zakúpené v podobe anuít z finančných prostriedkov, ktoré sa v minulosti z povinných odvodov odložili na osobných účtoch a následne sa z(ne)hodnocovali niekoľko rokov (Barr 2012).

V podmienkach otvorenej ekonomiky by teoreticky mohli penzijné fondy peniaze svojich klientov investovať v štátoch s priaznivejším demografickým vývojom a tým umožniť dôchodcom zo starnúcich štátov získať podiel na outpute produkovanom v (zatiaľ) relatívne mladších spoločnostiach. V praxi by sme sa teda mali snažiť o investovanie prostriedkov v penzijných fondoch krajín OECD do rozvojových štátov. V takomto prípade je však nevyhnutné rátať s nárastom rizikovosti investícií, monetárnymi obmedzeniami, volatilitou výmenných kurzov, a v neposlednom rade aj s politickými problémami. Vo svojej stati na túto tému Bebczuk a Musalem (2009) dochádzajú k záveru, že investovanie v rozvojovom svete by malo práve kvôli spomínaným rizikám pre fondy dôchodkového zabezpečenia štátov OECD sporný výsledok.

Ak sa však väčšina prostriedkov usporených v dôchodkových fondoch alokuje do štátov so starnúcou populáciou, ekonomické problémy plynúce z demografického vývoja tak či tak poznačia výsledky penzijných fondov, a tým aj naše budúce dôchodky z druhého piliera. Nakoľko je podstatná časť prostriedkov v slovenských penzijných fondoch investovaná do finančných inštrumentov emitovaných v rozvinutých (a starnúcich) štátoch OECD, očakávať nárast reálnej hodnoty dôchodkov pre našich budúcich penzistov vďaka druhému pilieru je značne naivné. Realizácia dôchodkovej privatizácie v podstate týmto stráca zmysel. Výsledky fondov budú úzko späté s ekonomickou situáciou domáceho štátu a zvyšku EÚ, preto negatívny vplyv demografického vývoja zanechá svoj vplyv aj na druhom pilieri.

Ak však druhý pilier nedokáže uchrániť obyvateľstvo pred následkami demografických zmien, vzniká otázka, prečo sme sa vôbec podujali realizovať takto nákladnú reformu. Podľa slov bývalého ministra práce Mihála ročný výpadok príjmov Sociálnej poisťovne z dôvodu reformy predstavuje približne 900 miliónov eur[3], a tento ukazovateľ bude v nasledujúcich desaťročiach ďalej rásť (Ódor a Novysedlák 2005). Snaha vykryť tieto transformačné náklady škrtmi v iných oblastiach alebo privatizáciou bude mať mimoriadne vážne sociálne následky.

Odpoveď zástancov reformy by asi znela, že pojem transformačných nákladov je úplne mylný. Nejde o náklady na reformu, ale o jednoduché zexplicitnenie implicitného dlhu. Tento argument neobstojí. Takzvaný implicitný dlh je teoretický konštrukt, dlh predpokladaný, ktorý má vzniknúť o niekoľko desaťročí voči vlastným občanom a na základe vlastnej domácej dôchodkovej legislatívy. Jeho konečná výška bude úzko súvisieť od parametrických zmien ktoré sa dovtedy udejú v prvom pilieri. Naproti tomu, takzvaný zexplicitnený implicitný dlh je veľmi reálny dlh často voči zahraničným veriteľom, na ktoré sú naviazané aj úroky. Na túto tému zajtra na Kriteku napíše Jan Drahokoupil.

Myšlienka, že explicitný dlh vznikajúci kvôli druhému pilieru je rovný implicitnému dlhu prvého piliera, a teda že dôchodková reforma je účtovne neutrálna operácia, je mylná, nakoľko charakter týchto dvoch typov dlhov je kvalitatívne úplne odlišný. Ak by sme však uznali argument o zexplicitnovaní implicitného dlhu a neexistencii tzv. transformačných nákladov, potom vzniká otázka, v čom tkvie výhodnosť transformácie implicitného dlhu napr. z roku 2030 na explicitný dlh v roku 2010. Takáto premena nie je zrejme nijako výhodná pre štát – požičiavame si dnes na výdavky, ktoré budú aktuálne až o dvadsať rokov,  a samozrejme platíme za túto pôžičku aj zodpovedajúce úroky. No reformátori penzijných systémov nášho regiónu mali to šťastie, že sa ich v čase realizácie dôchodkovej privatizácie nikto na tieto súvislosti nepýtal.

Maďarskú reformu roku 2010 je potrebné vnímať aj v kontexte vyššie uvedených makroekonomických súvislostí. Je pravda, že neexistuje dôkaz o tom, že by vládu Viktora Orbána motivovali k znárodneniu druhého piliera práve úvahy o inherentnej nefunkčnosti druhého piliera. V prípade Maďarska bol vývoj zrejme značne ovplyvnený potrebou štátu získať peniaze na krytie dlhu, snahou zbaviť sa transformačných nákladov a konzervatívnou etatistickou povahou Fideszu. Paradoxne však výsledkom týchto krokov bolo odstránenie jednej nepotrebnej a veľmi nákladnej súčasti dôchodkových systémov – druhého dôchodkového piliera.[4]

Viac o politickej ekonómií novej vlny penzijných reforiem v štátoch V4 a Slovinsku sa môžete dočítať tu: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2033353

Odkazy:

Barr, N. A. 2012. The Economics of the Welfare State. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bebczuk, Ricardo N., and Alberto R. Musalem. 2009. ‘Does Investing in Emerging Markets Help?’ In Aging Population, Pension Funds, and Financial Markets, 97–117. The World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2606/476870Replacem101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf?sequence=1.

Cienski, Jan. 2011. ‘Retirement: Pensions Changes Now a Big Political Issue’. FT.com, May 19. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2add2cae-80ec-11e0-8351-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1tVu2T5oM.

Kun, János. 2009. ‘A Tyúk Nem Tojik Aranytojást’. Népszabadság, April 30. http://www.nol.hu/velemeny/lap-20090430-20090430-35.

Ódor, Ľudovít, and Viktor Novysedlák. 2005. ‘Zodpovednosť Vo Verejných Financiách a Penzijná Reforma’. Inštitút finančnej politky – Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic. Presentation given at conference Prezentácia na seminár „Strategiehospodářsképolitiky a udržitelnostveřejnýchfinancí. http://www.mfcr.cz/cps/rde/xbcr/mfcr/Odor2_J05_pdf.pdf.

Viszkievicz, András. 2011. ‘Egyéni Számlás Öregségi Nyugdíjrendszer Magyarországon: A Svéd Modell Alkalmazásának Lehetőségei [Private Account-based Old-age Pension System in Hungary: The Implementation of the Swedish Model]’. Századvég Gazdaságkutató Zrt. http://www.szazadveg-eco.hu/files/muhelytanulmanyok/SzazadvegEco_Muhelytanulmany_2011_I..pdf.


[1] Situácia bola najvážnejšia Lotyšsku, kde došlo na základe údajov Eurostatu k medziročnému poklesu HDP v roku 2009 na úrovni 17,7 %. HDP Estónska a Litvy v rovnakom období pokleslo o 14,3 a 14,8 %.

[2] Uvedený jav bol typický pre maďarské fondy. Podľa štatistík maďarského orgánu pre dohľad nad finančnými organizáciami PSzÁF (http://www.pszaf.hu/en/), na konci roku 2010 mali dlhopisy a pokladničné poukážky emitované MR 47-percentný podiel na portfóliu dôchodkových fondov. Na závažnosť tohto javu poukázal aj poľský minister financií Jacek Rostowski, nakoľko v Poľsku dosahoval tento ukazovateľ až 70 % (Cienski 2011).

[3] Viď odpoveď Jozefa Mihála na otázku, či by sa mali znížiť odvody do druhého piliera: http://odbornedebatuj.sme.sk/2012/03/volby-2012-mali-by-sme-znizit-vysku-odvodu-v-ramci-druheho-dochodkoveho-piliera/ .

[4] Samostatnou otázkou presahujúcou limity tohto blogu je problematika ďalšej reformy priebežného systému v Maďarsku. Zrušenie druhého piliera vyriešilo niektoré problémy, s ktorými by sa maďarský štátny rozpočet nebol vedel vysporiadať. No existujúci priebežný systém zrejme tiež bude musieť prejsť parametrickými zmenami, príp. hlbšími systémovými zmenami bez znovuzavedenia súkromného sporenia. Jednou z možností je zavedenie švédskeho modelu, ako to bolo načrtnuté Viszkieviczom (2011) z mimovládnej organizácie Századvég blízkej Fideszu.

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Komentáre (811)

  • ivansml 02.05.2012 13:19

    “potom vzniká otázka, v čom tkvie výhodnosť transformácie implicitného dlhu napr. z roku 2030 na explicitný dlh v roku 2010. Takáto premena nie je zrejme nijako výhodná pre štát – požičiavame si dnes na výdavky, ktoré budú aktuálne až o dvadsať rokov,”

    Co ja viem, napriklad to moze byt vyhodne pre samotnych obcanov? Mat explicitnu pohladavku voci statu v podobe dlhopisu je pre mna urcite istejsie ako implicitnu pohladavku na dochodok z priebezneho systemu o 30-40 rokov.

  • Stefan 02.05.2012 17:47

    Dakujem za reakciu.
    Ak sa na Tebou nacrtnuty problem pozerame z hladiska jednotlivca, za predpokladu, ze ide o rydzo individualne riesenie, naozaj plati, ze pohladavka voci statu v podobe napr. dlhopisu s istou splatnostou je istejsia ako prislup o buducich dochodkoch.
    Pri investovani cez DSS sa znacna cast uspor naozaj vraza do dlhopisov domovskeho statu. Ak sa takato politika robi na vysokej urovni, cize dlhopis si nenakupil iba Ty, ale spolu s Tebou dalsich niekolko stocisic alebo az miliony ludi z tvojej generacie, tak sa z dlhopisu v drzbe obcanov stava rovnaky ‘slub’ akym je slub o buducich dochodkoch. Ak je stat schopny vsetkym vam, domacim fyzickym osobam-drzitelom dlhopisov vyplatit istinu spolu s urokmi, tak by bol schopny vam vyplatit tu istu sumu aj na dochodkoch (teoreticky by sa totiz tieto dve veliciny mali rovnat ak sa predpoklada, ze tvoje uspory v DSS budu alokovane do statnych dlhopisov, aby si tym ziskal silnejsi prislub o vyplate financnych prostriedkov v dalekej buducnosti). Ak stat bude v situacii, ze nie je schopny vyplatit dnes naslubovane dochodky, tak rovnako nebude schopny splatit ani dlh viazany na dlhopisy ktore mas Ty a dalsich niekolko stotisic ludi vo svojom portfoliu.

  • peet 03.05.2012 4:47

    Explicitná pohľadávka voči štátu je v tomto prípade rovnako neistá, ako implicitná. Menovú politiku má v konečnom dôsledku v rukách predsa len štát. Takže aj pomocou veľmi miernej inflácie sa v priebehu 40 rokov dokáže bez problémov zbaviť veľkej časti tohoto explicitného dlhu.
    Neistota implicitného dlhu spočíva v tom, že budúce vlády môžu prostredníctvom politického rozhodnutia voči dôchodcom vlastniacim implicitnú pohľadávku zaujať bezohľadný postoj. To však koniec koncov môžu aj voči tým ktorí vlastnia pohľadávku explicitnú. Dovolím si pripomenúť, že v 20 storočí sa zmenil režim 4krát a mena sa menila 5krát. Prečo by malo byť 21 storočie iné?

  • vrav 03.05.2012 10:11

    Povodne som nechcel reagovat, ale neda mi.
    2. pilier bol vytvoreny nato, aby odlahcil verejnym financiam (aj kvoli nepopieratelne zlej demografickej situacii). Ked sa budu dochodky vyplacat z 1. aj z 2. piliera naraz, klesne zataz na verejne financie a tym sa postupne zacne vykryvat deficit SP, ktory vznika tym, ze dnesni dochodcovia nemali 2.pilier (a kvoli vianocnym dochodkom, vselijakym absurdnym davkam a pod.). V clanku je vsak demagogicky spomenuty iba odlev penazi zo Socialnej Poistovne. Peniaze do 2. piliera by vlastne nemali vobec ist cez SP, to len zakon tak nastavil kvoli tomu, ze SP ma predsa lepsie moznosti vymahat neplatene odvody ako DSS.
    Z pohladu sporitelov v 2.pilieri je velmi dolezite, ze si sporia sami na seba zasluhovo (kolko zarobia, tolko tam poslu), kedze 1.pilier ma velmi chabu zasluhovost. Dalsou dolezitou vecou je diverzifikacia. Sporitel si svoju implicitnu pohladavku voci SR (statny dochodok) premeni na explicitnu pohladavku voci sirokemu spektru emitentov dlhopisov a inych cennych papierov s roznymi splatnostami. Ked SR nahodou zdefaultuje, stale sporitel nepride o vsetko. V slovenskych aktivach maju dochodkove fondy spravovane DSS iba 20-30% svojich portfolii (kvoli kreditnemu riziku).
    V celom clanku je ale viacero nedostatkov. Ake by malo byt alternativne riesenie bez 2.piliera? Co by sme ziskali zrusenim? Kratkodobu ulavu a dlhodoby problem? Preco by malo byt dlhodobo problemove Madarsko pre nas prikladom? Alebo pobalstske staty, ktore znasaju dosledky extremneho prehriatia svojich ekonomik a naviazania svojich mien na euro. Alebo Polsko, ktore uz ma teraz seriozny problem s riesenim svojho dlhu kvoli ustavnej dlhovej brzde.

    Nepopieram ze 2.pilier ma svoje neduhy, ale jeho zrusenie je krok spat o 10 rokov. Verejne financie su neudrzatelne, pretoze stale menej pracujucich plati za stale viac dochodcov.

  • JS 04.05.2012 6:22

    Pro vrava: Myslim, ze jste tomu bud neporozumel, nebo pripoustite nekde pokles duchodu/mezd, nebo predpokladate, ze se staneme kolonialni mocnosti.

    Z posledni vety to jasne vyplyva. Pokud mene pracujicich plati stale vic duchodcu, v cem je problem? Pokud produktivita roste, mohou pracujici platit vic a jejich zivotni uroven bude presto rust.

    Druha moznost je, ze si myslite, ze produktivita neroste. Pak to ovsem nevyresi zadne ucetni triky, ale proste _budou_ nizsi duchody nebo nizsi mzdy.

    Treti moznost je, ze predpokladate, ze ten vypadek produktivity doma ziskame nejak v zahranici, treba exportem. Tedy v podstate, ze se staneme kolonialni velmoci a jine staty budou pracovat na nase blaho. No to byl asi kazdy stat. Hodne stesti.

  • jd 04.05.2012 12:52

    A jeste pro vrava: JS hezky shrnul/a hlavni problem argumentace. Ten priklad diverzifikace rizik je vsak natolik usmevny, ze si zasluhuje take reakci. Privatizace skutecne diverzifikuje politicke/regulatorni riziko a (implicitni) vynos (nediverzifikuje ekonomicka a demograficke rizika, jak ukazal JS vyse). vrav vsak nazorne ukazuje, co se za slovickem diverzifikace muze skryvat: kdyz SR vyhlasi default, mozna se v chaosu az nekolik mesicu nebudou penze vyplacet. Jakmile se ale stat da do kupy a zacne vybirat dane, penze v prvnim piliri se dale budou vyplacet. Default vsak bude znamenat znehodnoceni portfolii v druhem piliri (tam se za soucasneho stavu prijde skoro o vsechno). Tedy presne opacny efekt nez, co predpoklada vrav.

    Mimochodem, ten narok vuci statu na penzi neni prece implicitni. Pro ty, co prispeli do PAYG, je myslim pravne vymahatelny. Takze diverzifikace zde take moc neplati.

    O diverzifikaci vice Nicholas Barr na str. 21-25: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp00139.pdf

  • Braňo 04.05.2012 17:01

    JS,
    problem moze byt v nakladoch mrtvej vahy. Ano, dane nie su len o distribucii bohatstva, ale ovplyvnuju aj jeho vysku. Ak bude tolko dochodcov, ze stat bude zdanovat 70% prijmu, tak ludia urcite nebudu (legalne ci nelegalne) pracovat tolko, co dnes. A kde nie je praca, tam nie je bohatstvo.

    PS: Exportom ekonomika nerastie.

  • Kveto 05.05.2012 9:02

    Nie som ekonóm, ale vidím to nasledovne: Parametrické zmeny v zmysle zvyšovania veku odchodu do dôchodku v konečnom dôsledku nič nevyriešia, pretože pre starších ľudí aj tak nemáme prácu. V konečnom dôsledku to bude znamenať, že až do dosiahnutia dôchodkového veku budú odkázaní na sociálne dávky a ich dôchodok bude nakoniec aj tak veľmi nízky.
    Kardinálnym problémom je output ekonomiky: Máme 400 000 nezamestnaných a 200 000 ľudí pracuje v zahraničí. Ak nevieme vyčerpať tento potenciál, tak parametrické zmeny znamenajú len útok na dôchodcov.
    Druhý pilier je v mjich očiach nezmyslom, ktorý nielen nevie vyriešiť problém outputu, ale prináša zbytočnú záťaž verjených financií a ešte tie vklady nedokáže zhodnotiť.
    Argument, že ľudia sa budú starať o svoje dôchodky vyvrátila prax posledných rokov: maldí ľudia často ani len nevedia, či sú v nejakom druhom pilieri, nechápu princíp investovania, sú absolútne pasívni pri správa svojich dôchodkových účtov.
    Zrušenie druhého pileira by bolo to najrozumnejšie, čo by bolo tmožné urobiť.

  • Stefan 05.05.2012 17:18

    Vrav:
    “2. pilier bol vytvoreny nato, aby odlahcil verejnym financiam (aj kvoli nepopieratelne zlej demografickej situacii).”
    - Na zaklade Ageing Reportu 2009 Europskej komisie, stav kedy sa vyrovna to co ziskame ocakavanym poklesom vydavkov prveho piliera a odlevom prijmov kvoli zavedeniu druheho piliera bude okolo roku 2040… konkretne v r. 2040 ma byt bilancia reformy uz mierne pozitivna na urovni 0.1% HDP. V tomto pokial dobre viem nie su zaratane uroky, ktore budeme musiet este aj v roku 2040-50, mozno aj 2060 splacat za dlhy ktore sme si narobili v desatrociach transformacie. To co momentalne vidime z reformy, tj. rocny odlev prijmov 900 mil eur (cca. 1.3% HDP) je iba zaciatok. Teraz zacnu odchadzat do dochodku najsilnejsie rocniky (nar. 1950-1955), ktore sa vacsinou do druheho piliera nezapojili. Druhy pilier bude zatazovat rozpocet este aj v dlhodobom horizonte. Je pravda, ze demograficka situacia je zla. To nepopieram. To, comu odmietam automaticky uverit je, ze demograficka situacia ma automaticky negativny vplyv aj na output. Ale predpokladajme ze mas pravdu aj v tomto, teda demograficke starnutie sposobi pokles outputu. Potom vznika otazka ako ma vznik druheho piliera vyriesit problem nedostatocne velkeho outputu, aby uspokojil aj pracujucich, aj dochodcov? Cez svoju zasluhovot? Alebo diverzifikaciu?
    “Z pohladu sporitelov v 2.pilieri je velmi dolezite, ze si sporia sami na seba zasluhovo (kolko zarobia, tolko tam poslu), kedze 1.pilier ma velmi chabu zasluhovost.”
    – Mat zasluhovy dochodkovy system je aj podla mna dolezite. Ja ale tvrdim (aj ked som to v clanku nepisal, nakolko som povodne chcel mat omnoho kratsi post na blogu)ze statom manazovany NDC system je lepsi ako stredoeuropske trojpilierove systemy.
    “Dalsou dolezitou vecou je diverzifikacia. Sporitel si svoju implicitnu pohladavku voci SR (statny dochodok) premeni na explicitnu pohladavku voci sirokemu spektru emitentov dlhopisov a inych cennych papierov s roznymi splatnostami.”
    - jednak diverzifikacia portfolio v praxi nie je az taka siroka ako si sa ju snazil predstavit. Je zaujimave, ze aj tak vacsina dlhopisov v portfoliu DSSiek je od statov, ktore rovnako starnu ako my, cize by mali byt vystaveny tym istym udajne nezvratitelnym vplyvom ako my. Toto je potom diverzifikacia iba na oko. Ale naklady na tuto takzvanu diverzifikaciu su naopak velmi realne a nezanedbatelne: obcan-sporitel plati za spravu fondu, dalej pri kupe anuity tiez dojde k dalsej strate na majetku sporitela. Stoji tato diverzifikacia za to?
    “Ake by malo byt alternativne riesenie bez 2.piliera? Co by sme ziskali zrusenim? Kratkodobu ulavu a dlhodoby problem? Preco by malo byt dlhodobo problemove Madarsko pre nas prikladom?”-
    Ja som zastancom notionally defined contributions, so snacnou zasluhovostou pri urcovani dochodkov prispievatelov a parametrickych uprav, najma zvysovania veku odchodu do dochodku. Viem, ze to druhe je velmi nepopularne, bohuzial je to ale nevyhnutnost. Zrusenim druheho piliera by sme sa zbavili suboptimalneho riesenia predpokladaneho problem poklesu outputu kvoli starnutiu obyvatelstva. Ze preco by malo byt Madarsko vzorom? Pravda, nemusi byt, aj ked este v roku 2003-2004 bolo udajne dlhodobo problemove Madarsko vzorom aj pre Slovensko pri dochodkovej reforme. Pre nas ale moze byt pokojne vzorom akakolvek krajina, alebo ani nemusime hladat vzor.

  • Inga 06.05.2012 15:05

    “Z pohladu sporitelov v 2.pilieri je velmi dolezite, ze si sporia sami na seba zasluhovo (kolko zarobia, tolko tam poslu), kedze 1.pilier ma velmi chabu zasluhovost.” Vrav
    ————————————————————-
    Re: Na rozdiel od všetkých diskutujúcich a autora nie som vôbec zástankyňou striktného zásluhového modelu. Dôchodok by mal byť egalitárnou sociálnou dávkou v starobe, ktorá by mala veľmi dôstojne pokryť všetky náklady ekonomický neaktívneho dôchodcu. Ďalšie luxusné výdaje by si mal dôchodca pokryť z nasporených podotýkam vlastných peňazí, alebo predajom nehnuteľností ak sa rozhodne penziu stráviť v domove dochodcov.

    Kto nedokáže pochopiť, (napr. vrav), čo sa vlastne stalo zavedením privátneho (egoistického) II. piliera, tak to popíšem na príklade rozprávky o troch grošoch.

    Kým v rozprávkovom príbehu syn jeden groš vracia otcovi, druhý požičiava svojmu synovi (aby mu ho, keď bude starý vrátil) a z tretieho žije.

    Tak márnotratný egoistický syn zapojený do II. piliera robí zhruba toto:
    Z jedného groša žije, z druhého groša, ktorý mal vrátiť otcovi si polovicu egoistický a nemorálne ulieva pre seba “na horšie časy”! Lebo už teraz zle vychováva a ukracuje vlastného syna !!! Takže čaká, že sa jeho syn k nemu zachová podobne!

    Aby mu otec nezahynul hladom, (keď poplatí vysoké účty) tak si pre neho požičiava peniaze za ktoré bude musieť splatiť naakumulované úroky! (nevie sa poučiť, že kríza vznikla aj preto, že ľudia žijú na vysokej nohe na dlh nad svoje príjmy!)
    Úplnou zvrátenosťou je fakt, že tretí groš, ktorý mal syn investovať do vlastného syna (dedovho vnuka) nie je celý, lebo sa mu z neho budú odpočítavať úroky, ktoré bude musieť aj vnuk splácať za svojho márnotratného egoistického otca, lebo na to, aby uživil v starobe deda si musel si jeho otec polovicu požičať! Navyše si paradoxne budúce naakumulované dlhy sú spojené s úrokmi.

    Takže kto na tom zarobí? Trochu egoistický syn, ale najmä príživnické DSS a banky, lebo využívajú chamtivosť a lakomosť egoistických “sporiteľov”.
    Jednoznačne na tejto egoistickej lakomosti otca prerobia dedo a vnuk. Lebo už počas života deda musí marnotratný egoistický syn splácať úroky. Preto ani tá úbohá polovica, ktorú dedovi vracia nemá takú hodnotu ako keby si nebol požičiaval polovicu pre deda a bol by celý groš vrátil svojmu otcovi (dedovi).

    RESUME:
    Takže ak sa egoistický II. pilier nezruší úplne ako v Maďarsku, tak budeme riešiť len to o koľko deda okradneme teraz a vnuka v budúcnosti?
    Len preto, že sme lakomí a marnotratní synovia a dcéry!

    PS: Odporúčam všetkým si prečítať si knihu Kronová hostina, aby pochopili elementárnu podstatu demografie.

  • vrav 07.05.2012 8:26

    Som rad, ze kriticka argumentacia prispivatelov zostala viacmenej vo vecnej rovine, to sa ceni.
    Co sa tyka buducnosti, nepochybujem, ze dochodky budu nizsie a dochodkovy vek sa bude posuvat dalej. Dalej v podstate suhlasim, ze prerobenie dochodkoveho systemu je vec dlhodoba, 20-30 rokov dokial sa vypadok prijmov vyrovna. Podla mojho nazoru by bolo logicke tento vypadok ciastocne vykryt z privatizacie, pretoze to su statky, ktore vytvorila generacia odchadzajuca do dochodku. To ja ale mimo tejto diskusie.

    Pre Stefana: Ano, silna generacia narodena v rokoch 50-55 bude problemom pre stat a ano, zapojila sa len ciastocne do 2P. 2P zacne odlahcovat verejne financie az ked z neho budu vychadzat dochodcovia, ktori si tam nasporili podstatnu cast svojho celkoveho dochodku, podla mojho nazoru az o cca 5-10 rokov.
    Co sa tyka outputu a diverzifikacie, 2P nevyriesi problem outputu, ale moze efektivnejsie redistribuovat penazne toky. A jeho zrusenie ze zvysi output? Akoze naakumulovane peniaze zostatnime a politici si ich prihraju svojim kamaratom na nezmyselne predrazene zakazky typu oprava BA hradu? Nemyslim si, ze to je dobry napad. Iba ak by tie peniaze boli investovane s cielom zvysit output a riesit demografiu v buducnosti (co nepredpokladam).
    Fakt, ze sa investuje do dlhopisov inych statov s demografickou situaciou tychto statov suvisi iba velmi okrajovo.
    Co sa tyka nakladov, kazdy sa obuva do nakladov na 2P (sprava fondov a anuity a pod.), pretoze sa daju relativne lahko vycislit. Ale kolko vlastne stoji 1P? Kolko z nasich odvodov ide skutocne na dochodky?

    Pre JD: Realne skusenosti z bankrotov statov hovoria o tom, ze obvykle je tzv. recovery rate na urovni 25-50% (napr. http://ksuweb.kennesaw.edu/~dtang/CRM/Moodys_SovereignDefault.pdf), takze je nespravne hovorit o tom, ze clovek v druhom pilieri pride o vsetko. V slovenskych statnych dlhopisoch je pritom momentalne investovanych 20-30% celkovych aktiv v 2P. Mimochodom, Barr neuvadza ziadne silne argumenty proti diverzifikacii do vacsieho mnozstva emitentov.

    Inga: Tu vasu demagogicku rozpravku poupravim. Otec ma nastastie dvoch synov a jednu dceru a ti mu zabezpecuju, ze ten svoj gros dostava a aj nieco malo navyse. Akoze marnotratny syn si odklada polovicu grosa na seba, ale ma iba jedneho syna, lebo sa mu nechce/nemoze mat viac, musel by si zo svojho grosa ukrojit. Jeho syn nastastie moze zdedit tie nasporene polgrose, ak sa jeho otec nedozije dochodku, takze tie peniaze sa nestratia. Ale fakt je, ze najmladsi akter pribehu to bude mat tazke kvoli nahromadenemu dlhu (nie vsak kvoli dedovi, ale kvoli drahemu systemu, ktory vyplaca grose kde kade aj tym, co na ne nemaju narok)

  • JS 10.05.2012 15:00

    Brano, muzete mi vysvetlit, jak rozhodnuti pri 70% danich nepracovat zvysuje muj osobni zisk? Tedy, proc bych se mel tak rozhodnout? Nedava to smysl.

    Jediny duvod, proc nepracovat je usetrit vic volneho casu. Pokud by mi pri vyssich danich realne klesly prijmy, pak bych mel prave pracovat vice (abych vyrovnal svou volbu mezi ziskem z prace a volnym casem). Pokud tedy mate teorii o tom, ze vyssi zdaneni ovlivnuje, jak moc lide pracuji, vyplyva z ni naopak, ze pri vyssim zdanenim budou lide pracovat vice.

    To s tim exportem jsem napsal v kontextu toho, stat se kolonialni velmoci, tedy nejakym zpusobem vysavat ekonomicky jine zeme. Bud to muzete udelat vojenskou silou, nebo na zaklade vzajemneho obchodu, ale pak musite mit co nabidnout – tedy export (obvykle zbozi s vysokou pridanou hodnotou vymenou za prirodni zdroje). Muzete mit rust i bez exportu, na zaklade rustu produktivity, ale to uz jsem pokryl v bode 2.

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