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Juraj Briškár: Ekonómovia pri víne

Miestnosť je plná ľudí, sú tu skupinky študentov aj učiteľov, pije sa na účet univerzity a vládne uvoľnená atmosféra. Práve sa skončila humorne ladená ceremónia našej fakulty pri príležitosti konca školského roka. Mnoho prítomných v rukách drží ‘oskarov’, malé sošky, ktoré dnes večer dostali za svoj výkon počas roka v rôznych kategóriách. Vynikajúca príležitosť porozprávať sa s vyučujúcimi a so spolužiakmi.

Počas cesty po ďalší pohárik stretávam môjho bývalého učiteľa. Špecializuje sa na európsku integráciu a medzinárodný obchod a na Angličana je o situácii na Slovensku veľmi dobre informovaný. Pýtam sa ho preto, či by súhlasil s názorom, že je dôležité, kto je vlastníkom významných firiem, či sú to zahraniční alebo domáci investori. Ako príklad spomínam Slovensko, kde zahraničné korporácie posielajú zisky do svojich centrál prostredníctvom dividend a “transferového oceňovania” a platia iba nízke mzdy. Dalo by sa preto argumentovať, že slovenskí občania získavajú iba veľmi malú časť z pridanej hodnoty, ktorá sa v krajine vytvorí.

Podľa neho sa pri všetkých štúdiách, ktoré hodnotia efekty zahraničných investícií musí odhadnúť aj to, aká by bola situácia pokiaľ by investície neprišli, čiže takzvaný counterfactual. Sám kedysi spolupracoval s Európskou komisiou na odhade efektov vytvorenia spoločného trhu na HDP a išlo tam o rovnaký problém, ako by sa situácia vyvíjala, pokiaľ by európsky projekt neexistoval. Z informácii, ku ktorým mal prístup, vyplýva, že na Slovensku bol počas socializmu vybudovaný hlavne ťažký priemysel, ktorý tam bol umiestnený z politických dôvodov a nebol konkurencieschopný. Preto sa mu zdá skoro ako zázrak, ako dobre z toho Slovensko nakoniec vyšlo a to hlavne v porovnaní s Českom. To štartovalo z lepšej pozície, pretože malo výrazne zastúpený aj “ľahký” priemysel, výrobu spotrebného tovaru. Za veľký úspech pokladá už to, že mnoho ľudí s technickým vzdelaním sa mohlo zamestnať v nových automobilkách.

Ja som s týmto vysvetlením nebol úplne spokojný. Slovensko ako súčasť východného bloku  skončilo na konci studenej vojny na strane porazených a po zmene režimu sa ocitlo v kategórii rozvíjajúcich sa trhov (emerging markets). Ekonomickí komentátori a politici na Slovensku sa tomu tešili, hoci to vlastne až taká exkluzívna skupina nie je. Pre každodenný život ľudí predstavuje stabilná krajina rozvíjajúca tradície ako Holandsko alebo Dánsko určite vhodnejšie prostredie ako nejaký ekonomický tiger. Pozoruhodné je, že po Novembri a pred vstupom do EÚ boli slovenské médiá plné sloganov “vraciame sa do Európy”, keď’ však došlo na tvorbu ekonomickej politiky, tak sa slovenská politická reprezentácia inšpirovala skôr ázijskými krajinami.

Zahraničnými investormi, ale aj organizáciami ako OECD a IMF, bolo Slovensko vnímané rovnako ako Brazília, Malajzia alebo Taiwan, čiže ako krajina bez priemyselnej tradície, v ktorej má zahraničný investor “na zelenej lúke” vybudovať svoju továreň. Investor prináša najmodernejšie technológie, a tým  krajinu cez spillover efekty obohatí. Prijímacia krajina by mala byť  investorom vďačná, keďže bez nich by tam bola iba tá zelená lúka.  V tomto prípade je spomínaný counterfactual dosť negatívny a akákoľvek štúdia potvrdí názor, že zahraničné investície boli prínosné.

Avšak Slovensko na začiatku 90. rokov bola industrializovaná krajina. Priemysel sa tu postupne vybudoval počas Rakúsko-Uhorska, prvej Československej republiky a hlavne v čase socialistickej industrializácie. Hodnotenie úspešnosti slovenskej ekonomickej transformácie teda závisí od toho, ako vnímame bývalé socialistické hospodárstvo.

Pokiaľ veríme, že slovenské hospodárstvo na konci socializmu bolo na svetových trhoch nekonkurencieschopné, potom môžeme byť s následným vývojom pomerne spokojní.  V tomto prípade priemyselné podniky aj tak nemali veľkú cenu, a teda straty z neprehľadnej privatizácie nie sú až také veľké. Všetky negatíva posledných dvadsiatich rokov ako nárast nezamestnanosti, nízke mzdy, neustále reformy a uťahovanie opaskov boli nevyhnutné, pretože vyplývali z nepríjemného dedičstva socializmu.

Pokiaľ tvrdíme, tak ako napríklad Marián Vitkovič, že veľká časť hospodárstva konkurencieschopná bola, tak sa vývoj za posledných dvadsať rokov nedá vidieť inak ako úplná katastrofa. Podľa tejto verzie nedávnej slovenskej histórie boli fungujúce a efektívne slovenské podniky rozkradnuté korupčnými politikmi a ich spriatelenými privatizérmi. To, čo sa akumulovalo celé dekády, bolo zničené za pár rokov. Z takejto interpretácie vyplýva, že veľkej časti nákladov ekonomickej transformácie sa dalo predísť.

Pri hodnotení ekonomického vývoja na Slovensku za posledné dve desaťročia sa treba vyhnúť ideologickým postojom a sústrediť sa na základnú, v podstate čisto technickú otázku. Pre jej poctivé zodpovedanie však potrebujeme dosť pokročilú znalosť teórie medzinárodného obchodu a aj prístup k detailným slovenským dátam. Debata na túto tému sa však značne sprehľadní, pokiaľ si uvedomíme, že sa celá krúti okolo jedného centrálneho bodu.

Autor študuje ekonómiu na University of Sussex.

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Komentáre (217)

  • škrtnutý fico 11.07.2013 7:46

    … okolo chiméry menom konkurencieschopnosť. Fajn článok, vďaka.

  • palo satko 11.07.2013 8:26

    otazka ekonomickeho vyvoja za poslednych 20 rokov nie je ekonomickym ale kriminalnym javom. zbytočne si budete kresliť grafy a plnit tabulky s udajmi. keby ste sa niekedy dostali k debate pri vinku so žijucimi a mnohými už odfajčenými tvorcami hladovych dolin, zabudli by ste na nastudovane vedomosti.

  • peter1 11.07.2013 17:14

    O čom vlastne makroekonomia je ? Bez dialektiky. o ničom !!!
    http://www.outsidermedia.cz/-Ekonomove-Imperia-%E2%80%93-Slyste-slovo-Bozi-1.aspx

  • maršal Žukov 16.07.2013 21:25

    kurnik šopa – veď na toto netreba ani matematiku 5. triedy ZŠ!
    Ako môže niekoho normálneho napadnúť, že cudzie firmy, považujúce nás za sprostých otrokov, by mohli byť pre Slovákov prínosom?

  • vlado 17.07.2013 5:00

    Upadok ekonomiky sa zacal v roku 1968. Je to prave prichod sovietskych tankov a nastup karierachtivych komunistickych potrimiskarov, udavacov a neschopnych hlupakov, ktori nastartovali hospodarsky a hlavne moralny upadok. Tento stav gradoval v 90 – tich rokoch, kedy sa toto dielo upadku vdaka Miklosovcom, Weissovcom a Meciarovcom podarilo dokoncit.

  • jj 17.07.2013 12:06

    Čo je to konkurencieschopný? Ak pod tým myslíme víťazný, čo je silno darwinisticko-ideologická interpretácia typická pre nedávny svet, tak iste, nie, socializmus konkurencieschopný nebol, zvíťaziť nad kapitalizmom nemohol. Pokiaľ je podstatou pojmu udržateľnosť, postačujúca existencia, tak si stále viac začínam myslieť, že po istých zmenách (iste veľmi otázne a rizikové) áno (autor sám je pomerne nepriebojný). Presne tak, ako je konkurencieschopné Španielsko, Portugalsko, či Írsko, popri Nemcoch, Holanďanoch, Francúzoch. Napokon, úbohí Gréci, ale aj tí sú a s takmer istotou zostanú vo všetkých tých (aj niektorých vraj super) kluboch. Líniu sussexského pána profesora je možné tiež vnímať rôzne. Čo by bolo, keby neboli zahraniční investori? Ale pokiaľ sú iba oni a krajina je v podstate výlučne a fatálne závislá na správaní a rozhodovaní od nej na západ (platí všeobecne), zostala jej iba manuálna práca, pretože na nič vlastné akoby ani nemala priestor, tragické je, že to vyzerá na to, že ani nedokáže, to už potom vyvoláva otázky. A následne, paradoxne a hypoteticky, je otázne, či zmena v 89 bola až tak optimálna. Tam, akokoľvek nedokonalé a možno už v dobe vzniku old fashioned (s výnimkou vynálezov p. Wichterleho a ten spolok postbáčů nemal rád) niečo tvorila a niekam, snáď a predsa len sa posúvala, aj cez vstupnú ťažkú industrializáciu. Inak, existovalo sklo, obuv, chladničky, nejaký telvízor a tuším aj rádio by sa našli. Prosím, až tak nemarginalizovať, zaváňa tendenčnosťou. Ale áno, na západe boli krajšie, fumkčnejšie a bez čakania…. Inak, kedy sa objaví nový vlastný spotrebný od Karpatského tigra.Viac ako 20 rokov nestačí. Prípadne, viac ako 20 rokov (stále ešte) nestačí? Pozri iba desiatky rokov dozadu ešte hlboko feudálnu Južnú Kóreu. A slobodný svet pritom vraj prináša samé čelendže. Späť, iba a výhradne/é pasívne preberanie a doslova prikladanie ruky k dielu, čia je tá, či čo je to za a kruh sa uzaviera, konkurencieschopnosť? Článoček to zas bol pekný, taký nealko letný. Prečítam aj nabudúce.

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