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Keynesiánsky pohľad na prebiehajúcu hospodársku krízu

Po Záhade kapitálu od Davida Harveyho, ktorá sa venovala súčasnej hospodárskej kríze z marxistického pohľadu, prinieslo vydavateľstvo Rybka publishers na český a slovenský knižný trh publikáciu keynesiánskeho razenia Globální minotaurus, Amerika, Evropa, krize a budoucnost globální ekonomiky. Jej hlavnou výhodou je potenciálna akceptovateľnosť v tzv. slušnej spoločnosti, kde čo i len vyrieknutie slova začínajúceho na M znamená automatickú izoláciu. Podriadenie marxizmu Keynesovi však autorovi, gréckemu ekonómovi so skúsenosťami z univerzít z anglofónnej časti sveta – Yanisovi Varoufakisovi, neprináša len širšie publikum, ale značne zužuje priestor pre alternatívne spôsoby organizácie hospodárstva a spoločnosti. Ekonomický pohľad zas zanedbáva problémy životného prostredia.

Varoufakis si je tejto skutočnosti veľmi dobre vedomý a na svojom blogu ponúka zmysluplné, avšak podľa môjho názoru nepresvedčivé, vysvetlenie. Považuje za „historickú povinnosť ľavice stabilizovať kapitalizmus.“ Súčasná kríza je „hrozbou pre civilizáciu, tak, ako ju poznáme.“ Takže hoci zdieľa názor, že „Európska únia je zásadne anti-demokratický, iracionálny kartel, ktorý vedie Európanov na cestu mizantropie, konfliktu a permanentnej recesie“ a hoci „by oveľa radšej podporil radikálnu agendu, ktorej raison d’être je nahradenie európskeho kapitalizmu iným, racionálnejším systémom“ jeho cieľom je „presvedčiť radikálov, že máme protirečivú misiu – zastaviť voľný pád kapitalizmu, aby sme si mohli kúpiť čas na formuláciu jeho alternatív.“ Chce sa vyhnúť zlyhaniu, k akému došlo na radikálnej ľavici po víťazstve Margaret Thatcher vo Veľkej Británii. Druhou príčinou je obava zo silnejúcej podpory pre neonacizmus a xenofóbiu v našej „postmodernej verzii 30. rokov 20. storočia.“

Keynesiánsky návrh riešenia krízy

Tieto obavy sú základom keynesiánskeho návrhu, ktorý ponúka v recenzovanej knihe i v prepracovanejšej verzii spolu so Stuartom Hollandom a Jamesom K. Galbraithom (vo francúzštine s predslovom bývalého francúzskeho premiéra Rocarda). Navrhuje, aby Európska centrálna banka (ECB) naďalej pomáhala bankám, ale aby túto pomoc podmienila odpustením značnej časti dlhov v deficitných krajinách. Ďalej by ECB prevzala časť dlhu všetkých členských krajín, ktorá sa zmestí pod maastrichtských 60 % HDP, a financovala by tento transfer vlastnými dlhopismi. Dlhy by zostali vládam, ale boli by spoločné pre eurozónu, takže by z nich boli nižšie úroky pre tie krajiny, ktoré majú práve hospodárske problémy. V treťom kroku by sa Európska investičná banka (EIB) stala mechanizmom na recykláciu prebytkov, ktorý je kľúčovým prvkom Varoufakisovej (a Keynesovej) argumentácie. Členské štáty by mali získať právo financovať svoje príspevky do investičných projektov EIB pomocou dlhopisov vydaných ECB a zároveň by úlohou EIB bolo požičiavať si prebytky od európskych i neeurópskych prebytkových krajín (Nemecko, Holandsko, Škandinávia…) a investovať ich v deficitných regiónoch EÚ. Súčasťou návrhu (ktorý ale je iba v zmieňovanej prepracovanej verzii na blogu) je Program sociálnej solidarity pre prípad núdze, ktorý by bol súčasťou mechanizmu na recykláciu prebytkov tým, že by úroky z nerovností v tokoch centrálnych bánk do ECB, ktoré s krízou narastajú, a zisky z transakcií s vládnymi dlhopismi, použil na programy na energetickú a nutričnú podporu.

Takýto návrh, v niektorých častiach veľmi podobný Keynesovmu projektu Medzinárodnej menovej únie, ktorý predložil (ale nepresadil) v roku 1944 v Bretton Woods, predpokladá schopnosť vlád kontrolovať kapitalizmus. V tomto smere je Varoufakisova kniha zásadne odlišná od zmienenej Harveyho Záhady kapitálu, alebo od tiež do češtiny preloženej Marxistickej ekonómie kapitalizmu od Duménila a Lévyho. V nich kapitál prekonáva všemožné bariéry, aby sa reprodukoval a zväčšoval svoj objem. Vlády ho nekontrolujú, ale sú akýmsi prekážkami v plynulom toku, ktorý však zákonite preruší kríza. Naopak, Varoufakis prezentuje históriu od roku 1929 ako v podstate dejiny regulácie, pomocou ktorej vlády (najmä USA) dosahujú svoje ciele skrz predvídateľné fungovanie kapitálu. Administratívy intencionálne regulujú alebo deregulujú hospodárstvo a kapitál im je podriadený.

Veľkej hospodárska kríza v 30. rokoch a jej dopad

V tomto zmysle sa kniha začína krízou v roku 1929. Obrovský hospodársky pokles bol znásobený úspornou politikou prezidenta Herberta Hoovera a viedol k nárastu chudoby a občianskym nepokojom. Ani New Deal, ktorý presadil v roku 1932 zvolený prezident F. D. Roosvelt, nebol schopný zásadne zlepšiť hospodársku situáciu (s. 63) a v roku 1938 vypukla ďalšia kríza. Až Druhá svetová vojna zbavila vlády všetkých finančných obmedzení a naštartovala kapitalizmus. S koncom vojny sa však medzi politikov vrátil strach z možného návratu krízy a tak „začali plánovať najďalekosiahlejší podnik sociálno ekonomického inžinierstva, aký kedy dejiny videli“ (s. 64). Varoufakis ho nazýva Globálnym plánom a označuje ním obdobie od Bretton Woods (1944) po zrušenie konvertibility medzi dolárom a zlatom (1971). Rozhodujúcu úlohu pri tvorbe Globálneho plánu mali James Forrestal (minister obrany), James Byrnes (minister zahraničia), George Kennan (autor doktríny zadržovania komunizmu) a Dean Acheson (minister zahraničia od 1949). Ich spoločným rysom bolo presvedčenie „že slobodný tržný kapitalizmus musí byť dôkladne plánovaný vo Washingtone podobne, ako bola úspešne riadená vojnová ekonomika“ (s. 77).

USA v Bretton Woods odmietli Keynesov návrh na vytvorenie multilaterálneho mechanizmu na recykláciu prebytkov a rozhodli sa vytvoriť vlastný, o ktorom by rozhodovala vláda USA. Varoufakis vysvetľuje, ako takýto mechanizmus funguje vnútri krajín pomocou investícií do oblastí, kde sú deficity a depresia. V USA sa o to stará vojensko-priemyslový komplex a ak napríklad Boeing obdrží zákazku od Pentagonu, nemôže investovať hocikam, ale iba do problémových regiónov. Ďalším prvkom mechanizmu sú transfery v podobe sociálnej podpory. Kým v USA sú prítomné oba prvky, eurozóna nemá ani jeden. Do prijatia eura sa tento problém riešil devalváciou, ktorá umožňovala deficitným štátom exportovať za nižšie ceny a tým dorovnať výhodu prebytkových štátov. Od prijatia eura niečo také nie je možné.

Globálny plán

Absencia mechanizmu na recykláciu prebytkov v prípade jednotnej meny alebo systému pevných kurzov, ktorý bol dohodnutý v Bretton Woods, má za následok, že aj malá kríza sa môže zmeniť v globálnu katastrofu. Bez ohľadu na to, kde sa začne, postupne sa kríza dostane do deficitnej krajiny a dlžníci v obave z budúceho vývoja obmedzia svoje výdaje. Tým sa zníži celkový dopyt. Vláda, ktorá zápasí so svojimi deficitmi navyše vyberie menej daní a o to viac nebude schopná stimulovať dopyt. Rozhodne sa preto porušiť pravidlá a devalvuje svoju menu. K tomu napokon aj došlo po roku 1971.

Čo teda obsahoval Globálny plán, skrz ktorý USA vládli svetu? Namiesto inštitucionalizovania mechanizmu recyklácie prebytkov, ako ho navrhol Keynes, sa rozhodli pre hegemóniu založenú na priamom financovaní zahraničných kapitalistických centier výmenou za vlastný obchodný prebytok (s. 74). Cieľom bolo, aby si USA zachovali svoj prebytok, ale aby zároveň mohli exportovať kapitál v podobe priamych zahraničných investícií svojim spojencom a tí aby mohli naďalej kupovať americké produkty. Išlo by o akýsi druh „osvietenej hegemónie“ (s. 98). Hlavným spojencom v tomto usporiadaní pritom nebola Veľká Británia, ale Nemecko a Japonsko, ktoré zastávali podobnú, na prebytkoch založenú pozíciu v rámci ich regiónov, aj keď to bolo na úkor obchodnej bilancie USA.

Po rôznych peripetiách (s. 75-82) bolo nakoniec rozhodnuté o tom, že cieľom nebude deindustrializácia Nemecka, ale naopak rast priemyslovej produkcie v západnej Európe. Nemecko malo byť jej hlavným pilierom a malo ďalej investovať svoje prebytky. Kľúčovým nástrojom v tomto prípade bol Marshallov plán, po ktorom nasledovalo Európske spoločenstvo uhlia a ocele. Podľa Varoufakisa je názor, že európska integrácia bola „dielom túžby Európanov po vytvorení nejakej obrany proti americkej nadvláde“ (s. 96) zakladajúcim mýtom EÚ. V skutočnosti „je celkom nesporné, že bez taktovky Spojených štátov by sa ESUO nestalo skutočnosťou“ (s. 83). Rovnako tak rast japonskej ekonomiky nebol v rozpore so záujmami USA, ale v súlade s nimi. Aj preto vláda Spojených štátov umožnila Japoncom exportovať na ich vlastný trh, prinútila spojencov urobiť to isté a počas vojen v Kórey a Vietname bolo Japonsko jej významným dodávateľom v regióne. Úlohou globálneho Juhu v tejto schéme bolo dodávať suroviny Japonsku a Západne Európe, čo malo za následok množstvo prevratov a vojen. Označenie globálneho plánu za „najskvelejšie obdobie globálneho kapitalizmu“ (s. 251) z tohto dôvodu podľa mňa rozhodne nie je na mieste a milióny zbedačených na globálnom Juhu by mi zrejme dali za pravdu.

Koniec Globálneho plánu a nástup Globálneho Minotaura

Hlavnou príčinou pádu Globálneho plánu bola absencia mechanizmu, ktorý by vyrovnával svetové obchodné nedostatky. Kým v 40. rokoch bolo nepredstaviteľné, aby sa USA stali deficitnou krajinou, náklady na vojnu vo Vietname spôsobili, že zlatý štandard sa stal neudržateľným a že sa prebytková obchodná pozícia USA začala preklápať do deficitnej. Status rezervnej meny umožnil Spojeným štátom tlačiť peniaze podľa vlastnej ľubovôle a budovať tak svoj imperiálny vplyv na požičaných peniazoch. V roku 1971 požadovali Francúzi a Briti výmenu svojich dolárov za zlato, čo bolo posledným klincom do rakve povojnového zlatého štandardu a viedlo k systému plávajúcich kurzov.

Keďže dolár bol (a stále je) rezervnou menou, ostatné krajiny mali len málo priestoru na manévrovanie. Jeho pokles viedol k poklesu aktív ostatných a zároveň k rastu cien ich exportov. Devalvácia väčšiny európskych mien by naopak viedla k rastu nákladov na energie. Spojené štáty pritom nemali nič proti rastu cien ropy, čo dokazuje aj skutočnosť, že ich najbližší spojenci v tom čase – iránsky šáh, indonézsky prezident Suharto a venezuelská vláda – rast tiež presadzovali. Rast cien totiž (pokiaľ bol denominovaný v USD) viedol k rastu množstva petrodolárov v obehu, ktoré smerovali na Wall Street. Kapitál teda viac nesmeroval z USA do Nemecka a Japonska, ale naopak smeroval do Spojených štátov. Podmienkou tejto zmeny bol rast konkurencieschopnosti firiem v USA a rast úrokových mier. K obom došlo v 80. rokoch. Zmienený rast cien ropy sa dotkol všetkých častí kapitalistického sveta, ale Japonsko a západná Európa boli postihnuté viac ako USA. Stlačenie mzdových nákladov zas zvyšovalo produktivitu na opačnej strane rovnice. Oboje potom spolu s rastom úrokových mier zo 6,33 % v roku 1973 na 20 % v roku 1981 priťahovali kapitál.

Obrat toku kapitálu si však vyžadoval ďalšiu zásadnú zmenu a to odklon od riadenia svetového hospodárstva smerom k jeho cielenej dezintegrácii (explicitne zmienenej bývalým šéfom Fedu Paulom Volckerom). Architektúra Globálneho Minotaura, teda hegemónie Spojených štátov od roku 1971 do 2008 spočívala v tom, že v stave chaotickej svetovej ekonomiky bohaté krajiny ako Japonsko a Nemecko a neskôr Čína investovali svoje prebytky na Wall Street, teda do firiem USA, na pôžičky domácnostiam, na nákup amerických vládnych dlhopisov, atď. Zároveň platilo, že na to, aby sa Minotaurus udržal, museli sa asymetrie v globálnej architektúre neustále prehlbovať, neustále muselo dochádzať k destabilizácii svetového hospodárstva. Išlo teda o akýsi divoký globálny mechanizmus na recykláciu prebytkov, ktorý však prebytky neprerozdeľoval tam, kde chýbali, ale nimi financoval dvojitý deficit Spojených štátov.

Varoufakis píše o štyroch faktoroch (Minotaurovych charizmách), ktoré boli dostatočne presvedčivé na to, aby „kapitálová daň“ prúdila do USA dobrovoľne. Čiastočne som ich už zmienil. Prvým bol dopyt po dolároch spôsobený tým, že sa z USD stala rezervná mena, takže rast HDP v ktorejkoľvek krajine znamenal rast tohto dopytu už len preto, že ropa sa obchoduje v tejto mene. Rast cien ropy zvýšil zisky ropným firmám USA, ktoré investovali na Wall Street. Zároveň stagnujúce mzdy (tretí faktor) viedli k ďalším ziskom a ďalším investíciám na burzu v New Yorku. Posledným faktorom je geopolitická moc a Varoufakis na pár stranách ukazuje „príklady toho, ako sa politika Ameriky snažila využiť svoju geopolitickú moc pre potreby Globálneho Minotaura“ (s. 114). Píše o Kissingerovom Memorande 200, ktoré „vyhlasovalo otvorený nárok Spojených štátov a nadnárodných firiem USA na nerastné bohatstvo tretieho sveta“ (tamže). V tejto časti vysvetľuje  v duchu ekonomického determinizmu pád komunizmu v Poľsku a Juhoslávii ich hospodárskymi problémami, ktoré sa začali podobne ako v krajinách globálneho Juhu pôžičkami na nízke úroky v 60. a 70. rokoch. Po prudkom zvýšení úrokových mier (spojenom s fungovaním Globálneho Minotaura) sa komunistické štáty (okrem zmienených aj Rumunsko a Bulharsko) snažili svoje pôžičky čo najrýchlejšie splatiť. To znížilo životnú úroveň obyvateľstva a viedlo k nárastu opozície „napr. vzniku poľskej odborovej organizácie Solidarita“ (s. 116).

Minotaurovi posluhovači

Globálny Minotaurus by nemohol fungovať bez pomoci svojich posluhovačov. Títo sa aj po páde obludy držia pri živote zubami nechtami. Kľúčovým posluhovačom bol Wall Street. Varoufakis ukazuje, ako rast toku kapitálu viedol k vlne fúzií a akvizícií, napríklad nákupu automobiliek Daewoo, Saab a Volvo spoločnosťami Ford a General Motors. Podobnú zlučovaciu a akvizičnú horúčku zažil svet v prvých dekádach 20. storočia pred Veľkou hospodárskou krízou. Podobne ako vtedy, aj teraz išlo o bubliny, ktoré praskli. Napríklad Daimler-Benz kúpil Chrysler za 36 mld. USD v roku 1998, aby ho predal v roku 2007 za 500 mil. USD. Autor vysvetľuje spôsob, akým sa tvorila hodnota fúzií tak, aby bola čo najvyššia. Nesčítavala sa hodnota firiem na akciovom trhu (kapitalizácia), ale tržby oboch spoločností vynásobené podielom tržieb a kapitalizácie ziskovejšej firmy (teda akoby očakávaná hodnota firmy, ak by tá začala mať podiel tržieb taký istý, ako pôvodne mala prosperujúcejšia firma). Takáto matematika vyháňala hodnoty zlúčených firiem a zisky z týchto fúzií do rozprávkových výšin. Následné kapitálové toky neustále sýtili dvojitý deficit USA.

Ďalším nástrojom na rast ziskov (a objemu peňazí) bol hedging a pákový efekt (leverage). Hedging vychádzal z derivátov – pôvodne užitočného nástroju, ktorý využívali napríklad farmári na zaistenie cien do budúcnosti (na podobnom princípe funguje aj Fair Trade). V istej chvíli sa predávajúci dohodli s kupujúcimi na cene v budúcnosti a poistili sa tak proti jej poklesu. Wall Street však začala využívať tzv. opcie, teda poistenia na kúpu a nie predaj akcie v budúcnosti za určitú cenu, teda pravý opak hedgingu. Ak cena akcie v budúcnosti stúpla, na zisk stačilo mať opciu, teda akoby poistku za zlomok ceny akcie, nebolo treba kupovať samotné akcie. Tento pákový efekt zväčšoval objem (tohto stávkového) obchodu a tiež zaisťoval príliv kapitálu na Wall Street.

Hypotéky a CDO

Kľúčovým prvkom krízy boli hypotéky poskytované ľuďom, ktorí neboli schopní ich splatiť. Pre Wall Street však bola dôležitejšia možnosť tieto hypotéky rozdeliť do častí, tieto časti zmiešať a predávať ako tzv. CDO (Collateralised debt obligations – zaistené dlhové obligácie) a ďalšie finančné inovácie, o ktorých Varoufakis v snahe čo najviac priblížiť problematiku čitateľkám a čitateľom nepíše. CDO v sebe obsahovali pôžičky rôznej kvality, avšak ratingové agentúry ich hodnotili veľmi vysoko (AAA), preto sa s nimi čulo obchodovalo. „Umožňovali bankám vytvárať dlh a šíriť ho; požičiavať a okamžite pôžičku niekomu predať“ (s. 137).

Problémom CDO však nebolo len to, že zakrývali riziko nesplatenia hypoték. Čoskoro totiž začali fungovať ako prostriedok výmeny. Vysoký rating znamenal, že ponúkali výnos iba o jedno percento vyšší ako pokladničné poukážky ministerstva financií USA, banky ich však mohli používať akoby sa nijak nelíšili od peňazí. Nemuseli ich zahŕňať do výpočtu svojej kapitálovej primeranosti, takže neobmedzovali svoju schopnosť poskytovať nové pôžičky. Zároveň ich mohli zastaviť vo Fede ako záruku na pôžičku a peniaze požičiavať za vyšší úrok klientom. Zisk z rozdielu v úročení si banka ponechala. To malo za následok snahu vydávať toľko CDO, koľko sa len dalo, požičiavať si čo najviac peňazí na nákup CDO od iných emitentov a držať obrovské množstvá CDO vo svojich účtovných knihách. Čím viac si banky požičiavali, aby kupovali CDO, tým viac peňazí vyrábali (s. 16-17). CDO sa teda stali súkromnou formou peňazí a zaplavili svetovú ekonomiku. Autor prirovnáva túto situáciu k odovzdaniu tlačiarenských strojov na peniaze mafii. V roku 2008 tieto súkromné peniaze prakticky zmizli a došlo k masívnej kríze likvidity.

Ďalším posluhovačom Globálneho Minotaura bol Walmart. Jeho význam spočíval v tom, čo Varoufakis nazýva ideológiou lacnoty. Inovácia sa netýkala technologických zlepšení, ako je to napr. (údajne) v prípade Microsoftu, či iných firiem, ale v znižovaní cien. Takže ľudia, ktorých reálne mzdy stagnovali alebo klesali, mali pocit aspoň malého víťazstva. Pre Minotaura bola potrebná nízka inflácia, ktorá by nekládla prekážky prúdeniu kapitálu do USA a Walmart zaisťoval infláciu dokonca nižšiu ako v iných kapitalistických centrách. Zároveň však mal negatívny vplyv na komunity. Všade, kam prišiel, sa zvýšila miera chudoby.

Toxická ekonomická teória

Tretím Minotaurovým posluhovačom sa stala toxická ekonomická teória. Tá ukázala svoje nedostatky už koncom 90. rokov pri páde hedgového fondu LTCM, ktorého hlavný investori Robert Merton a Myron Scholes tesne pred jeho bankrotom získali cenu za ekonómiu od Nobeloveho výboru. Príčina zlyhania bola v tom, že „sa obrovské investície opierajú o neoveriteľný predpoklad, že je možné odhadovať pravdepodobnosť udalostí, ktoré si vlastný model odhadujúceho odmyslí nielen ako nepravdepodobné, ale v skutočnosti ako teoreticky neuchopiteľné“ (s. 22). V prípade CDO išlo o predpoklad, že možnosť, že časť dlhu obsiahnutá v CDO nebude splatená, je do značnej miery nezávislá na pravdepodobnosti nesplatenia iných častí v tom istom CDO. Išlo teda o predpoklad, že niečo také ako to, čo sa stalo v roku 2007-2008, sa v skutočnosti stať nemohlo, že neschopnosť splácať dom u jednej osoby nepovedie k strate práce u inej a jej následnej neschopnosti splácať. Vieru v tento model Varoufakis vysvetľuje stádnym chovaním a strachom – keby obchodníci a obchodníčky s cennými papiermi išli proti prúdu, prišli by o prácu. Navyše matematicky prepracované nástroje dávali ľuďom akúsi vedeckú dôveru v ich fungovanie.

Súčasťou toxickej teórie bola hypotéza efektivity trhu, že ceny odrážajú všetky, aj súkromné, informácie. Mýlia sa teda obchodníci, trh má vždy pravdu. Omyly obchodníkov, keď napríklad predpovedajú infláciu, ceny obilia, alebo ceny akcií či derivátov, sú však podľa hypotézy racionálnych očakávaní vždy náhodné, teda „bez akejkoľvek štruktúry, vzájomne nesúvisiace, teoreticky neuchopiteľné“ (s. 25). Tento predpoklad však znamená nikdy neočakávať recesiu alebo krízu, pretože tie sú vo svojej podstate systematické a štruktúrované. Aby bolo možné túto hypotézu udržať, je reakciou na krach teória hospodárskeho cyklu. Tá chápe kapitalizmus ako dobre fungujúci, harmonický systém, ktorý nemá dôvod sa prepadnúť do krízy, ale môže byť napadnutý zvonku nejakým exogénnym šokom, napr. vládou, Fedom, odbormi, producentmi ropy, atď. Zatiaľ čo vnútorné zmeny zvláda bez problémov, na tieto vonkajšie šoky potrebuje čas a ich riešením je nechať kapitalizmus, aby ich absorboval a nezasahovať do neho.

Toto je aj hlavným posolstvom ideológie volného trhu, ktorú netreba nijak zvlášť predstavovať. Z nej vychádzajúce ekonomické teórie museli obsahovať myšlienku, že ekonomiku nejde racionálne riadiť, že regulácia trhu nie je len neefektívna, ale že je nezmyselná. Tieto predpoklady spĺňal model, v ktorom sa kapitalizmus javí buď ako „statický systém nadčasových, vzájomne skĺbených trhov v stave trvalej rovnováhy alebo ako dynamický systém ženúci sa dopredu v smere šípky času, ale tvorený jediným indivíduom (ktorý dostal názov reprezentatívny aktér) alebo jedným odvetvím“ (s. 147). To znamená, že model bol schopný zachytiť buď komplexitu, alebo čas, ale nikdy nie obe naraz. Matematická sofistikovanosť prispievala k tomu, že ekonómovia a ekonómky si nevšímali tieto základné problémy. Oddelenie komplexity, teda transakcií rôznych ľudí v rôznych hospodárskych odvetviach, od času znamená, že takýto model nie je schopný do seba zahrnúť akúkoľvek možnosť krízy. Toxická teória tak slúžila ako opora fundamentalistom slobodného trhu.

Vysvetlenia krízy

Varoufakis zmieňuje hneď v prvej kapitole šesť vysvetlení, prečo došlo ku kríze. Odpoveď britskej kráľovnej zmienila dva problematické body – neschopnosť vnímať riziká systému ako celku napriek tomu, že všetci videli, že sa čísla zadĺženosti utrhli z reťaze a prílišnú dôveru v lineárne exploatácie doterajších trendov do budúcnosti. Ekonómovia jednoducho uverili, že finančné inovácie sú schopné zbaviť systém rizika. Ďalším problémom bol konflikt záujmov v regulačnom systéme. Ako už bolo zmienené, ratingové agentúry nesprávne ohodnocovali CDO. Robili tak však okrem iného aj preto, že sú financované bankami, že regulačné úrady tieto hodnotenia akceptovali ako správne, že zamestnanci a zamestnankyne v regulačných úradoch usilovali o kariéry v bankách alebo agentúrach samotných a že na ministerstve financií, ktoré na to všetko malo dohliadať , pracovali bývalí zamestnanci Goldman Sachs či Bear Sterns, alebo tam tiež plánovali odísť. Kritický názor v týchto kruhoch znamenal nemilosrdnú exkomunikáciu. Tretie vysvetlenie vníma ľudí ako chamtivé bytosti, ktoré potrebujú svojho Leviathana, inak jednoducho budú kradnúť. Takým Leviathanom bola Roosveltom zavedená reguálácia bánk, napríklad Glassov-Steagallov zákon. Avšak ideológia voľného trhu a záujmy korporácií nakoniec viedli k jej postupnému odbúraniu a tak chamtivosti nič nebránilo v pokroku smerom k vlastnej skaze. Štvrtým vysvetlením sú kultúrne korene anglo-keltského modelu. V časti Ázie krízu dokonca nazývajú severoatlantická kríza. Piata príčina – toxická teória – už bola zmienená. Dôležitá je šiesta príčina, ktorou Varoufakis ukazuje, aký blízky mu je marxizmus. Čo ak za krach nemôže ani ľudská prirodzenosť a ani ekonomická teória? „Čo ak kapitalizmus nie je „prirodzený“ systém, ale zvláštny systém so sklonom k systémovému zlyhaniu?“ (s. 26). Ak to tak je, potom je kríza „normálnou“ súčasťou kapitalizmu. Ľudia slúžia kapitálu ako pešiaci bez ohľadu na to, či ho vlastnia.

Minimálne niektorých príčin si časť finančných a politických elít bola vedomá. Varoufakis cituje Paula Volckera a hlavného ekonóma investičnej banky Morgan Stanley, Stephena Roacha. Obaja videli, že v globálnom hospodárskom systéme sú prítomné asymetrie, ktoré nie sú udržateľné. Obom bolo jasné, že skôr či neskôr musí dôjsť k havárii systému.

V šiestej kapitole autor prehľadne prezentuje priebeh krízy od roku 2007 do roku 2009. Nie je tu priestor na zopakovanie toho, čo si ešte čitatelia a čitateľky určite pamätajú z tlačového a televízneho spravodajstva, ale odporučil by som čítanie tejto kapitoly doplniť o sledovanie filmu Too big to fail. V ňom sú podrobne vyobrazené presne tie udalosti, o ktorých je v knihe reč.

Reakcia na krízu

Kapitola sedem naopak prináša analýzu spôsobu, akým na pád Globálneho Minotaura reagovali jeho posluhovači. Tzv. Geithnerov-Summersov plán im umožnil zbaviť sa toxických aktív za peniaze verejných poplatníkov. V rámci tohto plánu Fed (a ministerstvo financií USA) prispeli bankám na výkup CDO tak, že im umožnil založiť si špeciálne hedgové fondy určené na to, aby s týmto príspevkom vykupovali od bánk (teda de facto samé od seba) CDO. „Príspevok“ bol tzv. pôžičkou bez rekurzu, to znamená, že Fed dostane peniaze, ktoré hedgový fond získa predajom CDO, ale ak ich predá pod cenu, nemá možnosť získať rozdiel späť. Banka sa tak zbaví toxických CDO. Hlavný problém pre Varoufakisa pritom nie je len etický, alebo fiškálny dopad, ale opätovné naštartovanie financializácie a tvorby nových súkromných peňazí cez trhy s derivátmi. Snahy Bushovho ministra financií Hanka Paulsona boli snahou jednoducho napumpovať do bánk peniaze (hoci prakticky bez akýchkoľvek podmienok) na to, aby ich banky ďalej požičiavali podnikom a naštartovali tak ekonomiku, v tomto prípade šlo o oživenie presne toho spôsobu obchodovania, ktorý viedol ku kríze.

Podobný prístup sa presadil v EÚ, kde tzv. euroval má za úlohu požičiavať peniaze emitovaním európskych dlhopisov, ktoré by mali mať podobnú štruktúru ako CDO. Tieto eurobondy majú byť rozkúskované do balíčkov obsahujúcich rozdielne úročenia podľa toho, ktorou krajinou sú časti obligácií garantované. Takže napríklad Grécko by si požičiavalo lacnejšie cez eurobondy ako bez nich. Problémom je, že v prípade, že špekulanti budú vsádzať na bankrot najslabšieho štátu zatiaľ schopného si požičať na finančných trhoch (napr. Portugalska), jeho úroky budú stúpať a navyše tento štát bude nútený si požičiavať, aby pomáhal Grécku. Následná neschopnosť si požičať povedie k tomu, že sa podobný scenár bude opakovať v prípade druhého najslabšieho štátu, atď. Varoufakis používa metaforu horolezcov na lane (s. 214-215), ktorí tiež nedokážu udržať vždy posledného lezca. Opäť, hoci je problém, že tento európsky prístup by znamenal, že obrovské prostriedky by museli ležať ľadom, aby mohli byť v prípade nutnosti použité a odstrašili tak špekulantov, Varoufakisovi vadí najmä to, že princíp CDO, ktorý umožňuje bankám, hedgovým fondom a poisťovniam vytvárať nové peniaze, tu dostáva rozhrešenie.

Hoci Obamova administratíva z verejných peňazí zachránila banky, tieto sa jej odvďačili podporou jeho oponentov, ktorí presadzovali ešte menej regulácie ako Obama. Snahy regulovať banky sa značne oslabili a s pádom Minotaura sme sa dostali do tzv. bankrotokracie, teda vlády jeho posluhovačov. Tí však nie sú schopní plniť Minotaurovu stabilizačnú funkciu a vytvárať peniaze potrebné pre nové investície a konzum.

Svet po Minotaurovi

Aký je teda svet po Minotaurovi? V Spojených štátoch ostal Obamovi po strate Kongresu jediný spôsob, ako riadiť hospodárstvo – menová politika Fedu. Ten sa pustil do tzv. kvantitatívneho uvoľňovania (QE). V rámci tejto politiky Fed nakupuje cenné papiere zaručené hypotékami (MBS – mortgage-backed securities) od bánk. Nejde však o bežný nákup, pretože banky tieto peniaze nesmú požičiavať zákazníkom alebo podnikom, môžu za ne iba kupovať iné aktíva v ďalších bankách. To znamená, že keď kúpia nejaký starý cenný papier (vydaný pred QE), množstvo peňazí v ekonomike sa nezmení, iba sa prepíšu účtovné knihy. Ak však kúpia nový cenný papier, vtedy podporia fungovanie ekonomiky napríklad tým, že kúpia pôžičku pre podnik od inej banky. Cieľom bol rast cien MBS, čím sa znížia úroky z týchto cenných papierov, tie povedú k nižšiemu úročeniu hypoték, tie zvýšia dopyt po nových domoch, tá zvýši cenu domov, ktorá dorovná pôvodnú výšku hypoték. Varoufakis túto logiku kritizuje, pretože predpokladá, že ľudia začnú byť presvedčení, že trh už dosiahol dno, že majú isté zamestnanie a že si môžu dovoliť hypotéku. Banky musia byť ochotné prevziať riziko, že budú môcť predať hypotéku ako nový cenný papier za peniaze od Fedu. Firmy musia byť presvedčené, že sa zvýši dopyt po ich produktoch a preto sa im oplatí zamestnať viac ľudí, ktorí budú žiadať o hypotéky. Predstavu, že toľko ľudí bude naraz veriť toľkým predpokladom označuje Varoufakis za vieru v zázraky.

Problémom kvantitatívneho uvoľňovania je tiež, že motivuje bankárov, aby požičiavali do zahraničia a využívali rozdiely v úrokoch (ide o tzv. prenosový obchod). To zvyšuje prítok kapitálu do krajín ako napr. Brazíli, ktorý sa však môže veľmi rýchlo otočiť a zanechať za sebou takú istú spúšť ako už mnohokrát v minulosti. Hlavným problémom však pre Varoufakisa je, že sa verejná diskusia točí okolo QE, zlatého štandardu, či neudržateľnosti federálneho dlhu a nezaoberá sa kľúčovým problémom, ktorým je neschopnosť recyklovať prebytky niektorých krajín na planetárnej úrovni.

Podobne EÚ, ako už bolo zmienené, trpí chýbajúcim mechanizmom na prerozdeľovanie prebytkov. Biliónovú pôžičku insolventným bankám eurozóny a nákup talianskych a španielskych dlhopisov, ako aj čiastočné odpustenie dlhu Grécku v marci 2012 považuje autor za nedostatočné. Problémom je nepochopenie, že základom európskych ekonomík bola schopnosť Minotaura konzumovať ich produkciu, ten to už ale viac nedokáže. Eurozóna buď prejde zásadnou rekonštrukciou, alebo sa rozpadne (s. 248).

Možné riešenia

Čína by mohla byť schopná vytvoriť zmysluplný mechanizmus recyklácie prebytkov. Napríklad by výmenou za dovoz primárnych statkov z Brazílie s touto krajinou uzatvorila dohodu o investíciách, ktoré by zahŕňali prenos technológií. Podobné dohody by Čína mohla uzatvoriť s Argentínou, Indiou, Tureckom a vybranými africkými krajinami. Hlavným problémom Číny v tejto chvíli je, že „domáci trh nie je schopný vytvoriť dostatočný dopyt pre gigantické čínske továrne“ (s. 248). Pomer spotreby k HDP tu naďalej klesá. Miesto spotreby sa v Číne investuje, čo len naďalej zvyšuje produkciu, ktorú doma nemá kto spotrebovať a to môže viesť k bubline na realitnom trhu. Snaha zamedziť jej vzniku v roku 2011 prísnejšou reguláciou poskytovania nových pôžičiek viedla k zabrzdeniu priemyselnej produkcie. Na to reagovala vláda stimuláciou, ktorá zas znížila podiel spotreby na HDP. Aby začarovaný kruh uzavrela, zmiernila podmienky poskytovania hypoték, čo môže mať za následok tvorbu realitných bublín. Rovnako ako pre Európu, aj pre Čínu je pokles dopytu Globálneho Minotaura problémom, s ktorým si nevie rady a nie je schopná nahradiť jeho spotrebu svojou vlastnou.

Naznačené riešenie recyklácie prebytkov investovaním v Brazílii a podobných krajinách by podľa Varoufakisa mohlo fungovať, avšak omnoho viac by si prial v úvode prezentovaný keynesiánsky mechanizmus. Dokonca cituje bývalého generálneho riaditeľa Medzinárodného menového fondu Dominiqua Straussa-Khana: „Keynes predpovedal už pred 60 rokmi, čo je treba, ale bolo vtedy príliš skoro. Teraz je čas to urobiť. A myslím, že sme na to pripravení“ (s. 258). „Tým“ má Strauss-Khan na mysli globálny mechanizmus recyklácie prebytkov tak ako ho navrhol Keynes v roku 1944. Ten ale nemôžu viesť krajiny ako Čína, India alebo Brazília. „Viesť musí Amerika“ (s. 259).

V tejto chvíli však platí, že Minotaurus je na kolenách. Nie je schopný konzumovať prebytky ostatných krajín tak ako pred krízou. Jeho deficit bežného účtu klesol zo 6 % na 3 % a Čínsky prebytok klesol z 10 % na 2,5 %. USA stratili schopnosť konzumovať export zvyšku sveta. Takisto stratili schopnosť priťahovať kapitál. Najmä drasticky klesli pôžičky korporáciám USA. Vládny deficit sa však zdvojnásobil, čo znamená, že peniaze naďalej hľadajú bezpečný prístav rezervnej meny. Ak však dochádza k obmedzovaniu prísunu kapitálu do korporácií a nehnuteľností a USA obmedzujú import zahraničného tovaru, je zrejmé, že „obluda je mŕtva a na jej miesto nenastúpilo nič, čo by dokázalo znova naštartovať základný proces recyklácie prebytkov“ (s. 232).

Problémy Varoufakisovho anti-zeleného a pro-kapitalistického prístupu

Varoufakisova voľba medzi medzi fašizmom a keynesianizmom nedáva veľa priestoru pre alternatívy. Hoci je jeho argumentácia presvedčivá a isto si nájde stúpencov najmä medzi sociálnymi demokratmi, existujú minimálne dve oblasti, v ktorých podľa môjho názoru ťahá za kratší koniec. Prvý som letmo naznačil v úvode. Varoufakis predpokladá schopnosť vlád regulovať kapitál. Lenže bola to práve schopnosť korporácií ovplyvňovať vlády vo svoj prospech, ktorá viedla k odbúraniu regulácie a súčasnej kríze. Načo sa máme púšťať do tohto márneho boja za usmerňovanie kapitálu, ak nás ten vždy a všade, zas a znova bude porážať jednoducho preto, že má omnoho viac prostriedkov. Občiansky aktivizmus je často voči kapitálu bezmocný a vlády sa ním nechávajú omnoho viac ovplyvňovať než si Varoufakis pripúšťa. Súčasná kríza nemala (zatiaľ) tak ďalekosiahle sociálne dopady ako kríza v 30. rokoch, navyše tu neexistuje tak silný hegemón ako vtedy, takže očakávať nejakú novú formu Globálneho plánu vychádzajúcu z tejto skúsenosti nie je namieste. Radšej ponúkajme alternatívy tu a teraz, pretože ak aj by sa presadila nejaká forma regulácie, sila kapitálu by okamžite opäť viedla k snahám o jej odbúranie, ako o tom píše sám Varoufakis v Obamovom prípade, ktorý slabú reguláciu predsa len zaviedol (s. 186).

Omnoho väčším problémom je Varoufakisova predstava sveta fungujúceho podľa logiky kapitálu. Životné prostredie zmieňuje na troch miestach. Ako súčasť keynesiánskych programov Kennedyho a Johnosona (s. 91), ako obeť podnikateľského modelu firmy Walmart (s. 135) a ako prírodné katastrofy zvyšujúce ceny potravín (s. 170). Na vyše 250 stranovú knihu o globálnom hospodárstve je to vo svetle prebiehajúcich klimatických zmien spôsobených najmä súčasným ekonomickým systémom trochu málo. Kritizujme Varoufakisa za to, že sa nesnaží spolu so svojim keynesiánstvom pretlačiť zásadnú enviromentálnu zmenu, ale zároveň predpokladajme, že na životné prostredie určite tajne myslí, akurát o ňom takmer nepíše, a keď hovorí o produktívnych investíciách (napr. s. 213), predstavuje si pod nimi najmä zelené investície.

Problémy takéhoto zeleného Varoufakisa by boli tri. V prvom rade ním zmienený Walmart bude usilovať čo najviac prenášať externality na iných aktérov, najmä verejnosť, aby si zachoval svoje zisky. Taká je logika kapitálu, ktorý ak by prihliadal na životné prostredie, zároveň by išiel proti svojmu hlavnému cieľu – finančnému zisku. S tým súvisí problém predstavy udržateľného systému skrz mechanizmus recyklácie prebytkov. Takýto systém neopustí logiku zisku, firmy budú naďalej bezohľadne sledovať svoje ciele. Globálna regulácia zaistí iba to, aby ničenie životného prostredia nebolo narúšané hospodárskymi krízami, ale mohlo plynule pokračovať. A napokon tretí problém spočíva v myšlienke, že zelené investície by mohli viesť k udržateľnému spôsobu života. Takýto technooptimizmus vlastný ekonómom ako keynesiánskeho, tak marxistického zamerania sa dosiaľ bohužiaľ nepotvrdzuje a vidíme skôr, že zvýšená efektivita vedie k dorovnávaniu (a niekedy rastu) spotreby energie. Koncept „zelenej ekonomiky“ v niektorých kruhoch síce nahrádza koncept „udržateľného rozvoja“, problém však ostáva rovnaký. Spotreba, ktorá nie je ani v jednom prípade problematizovaná, robí náš spôsob života neudržateľným. Udržiavanie hlavného princípu ekonomického systému, ktorý je jeho základom, potom nemôže viesť k zmene, ale povedie iba k zachovaniu toho, čo je neudržateľné. Keynesiánsky plán nám nekúpi čas na to, aby sme zachovali mier, pretože vojny spôsobené degradáciou životného prostredia tu s nami už dávno sú. Menej eurocentrické vnímanie, ktorého Varoufakis, zdá sa, nie je schopný, by mu umožnilo vidieť ďalej ako za hranice Európskej únie a ekonomické štatistiky rastu a prítoku kapitálu do tzv. emerging markets. Aj tam ľudia trpia kvôli tomu, akým spôsobom kapitál ničí ich životné prostredie a aj tam by akékoľvek udržiavanie kapitalizmu pomocou Keynesových modelov len prehĺbilo tie boje, z ktorých má Varoufakis taký strach. To, že v Európe dosiaľ neprepukli v plnej sile, by nás ale nemalo oslepovať voči tejto skutočnosti. Náš kúpený čas znamená množstvo ich stratených životov.

Ak je kniha Yanisa Varoufakisa v niečom originálna, je to spôsob, akým vysvetľuje javy v druhej polovici 20. storočia. Užitočná je tiež v jasnom a úprimnom zaujatí keynesiánskej pozície v súčasnom svete. To, že je táto pozícia neudržateľná vzhľadom na problémy životného prostredia a chudobných na globálnom Juhu, ktorých sa tieto problémy dotýkajú v ich každodenných životoch, však z Varoufakisovej knihy robí príspevok hodný akceptácie nanajvýš ak v tzv. slušnej spoločnosti, ale nie tam, kde hľadajú alternatívy.

Yanis Varoufakis: Globální Minotaurus. Amerika, Evropa, krize a budoucnost globální ekonomiky, Rybka Publishers, Praha, 276 s.

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    Previously we described Steve Richards as “a fine journalist, at the top of his game”. He continues to write pieces which make people think – and by ‘people’ we mean those at the top of the three political parties. He has the unique talent of attracting praise from all parts of the Left and Right. His Rock ‘n’ Roll politics show was a real hit at this year’s Edinburgh Fringe. Our panellists were unanimous in placing Richards as the highest placed journalist on the list.
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  • Paris 11.02.2017 16:58

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  • Salvatore 11.02.2017 19:39

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  • Marcelino 11.02.2017 20:24

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    Where Medvedev abstained in a U.N. Security Council vote that authorized NATO airstrikes in Libya, Putin has refused repeated entreaties from Washington to allow the world body to impose even minimal sanctions on President Bashar Assad’s Syria. At the same time, Putin’s government has continued to supply its ally Assad with weapons. And it has not delivered on pledges to coax Assad into sending representatives to talks with the opposition aimed at finding a political solution to the 2-year-old Syrian conflict.
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  • Roberto 12.02.2017 3:26

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  • Mohamed 12.02.2017 7:08

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  • Irving 12.02.2017 19:27

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  • Donnie 13.02.2017 3:38

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  • Heriberto 13.02.2017 8:53

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