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Ohrožený dolar?

Jako u každé větší geopolitické krize, i nyní se v souvislosti s Ukrajinou objevily úvahy o ultimativní ruské pomstě – nové internacionální měně, která odstraní americký dolar a tím zničí Spojené státy. Realita je jaksi méně dramatická, to ovšem neznamená, že není vhodné se blížeji podívat jak na postavení amerického dolaru, tak i na možné alternativy, které se rýsují.

Americký dolar je nezpochybnitelně hlavní internacionální měna – což znamená, jak si ukážeme, podstatně více, než „jenom“ měna rezervní. Tato dominatní pozice úzce souvisí s ekonomickou silou a byla dále podpořena bretton-woodským systémem (konference z roku 1944), která vliv amerického dolaru dále zakotvila. Podobně jako v 19. století dominovala britská libra (a Velká Británie), bylo 20. století stoletím dolaru. Bude tomu ale i nadále? Není skutečně pozice amerického dolaru jen nezasloužené privilegium, jak často tvrdí kritici?

Bez přehánění můžeme konstatovat, že americký dolar je jedním z pilířů americké moci. To, že je hlavní internacionální měnou, má pro Spojené státy obrovské výhody v oblasti levnějších obchodních i finančních transakcí. V oblasti makroekonomie to přináší možnost ve vlastní měně financovat deficit běžného účtu a počítat s tím, že jak po dolarech (cash), tak po v dolarech denominovaných aktivech je poptávka nikoliv národní, ale globální. To zároveň znamená, že Spojené státy mohou provozovat i poněkud neortodoxní hospodářskou politiku, která je zároveň dosti těžko napodobitelná jinými zeměmi, které privilegium mít internacionální měnu nemají.

Z tohoto hlediska nepřekvapí, že se v posledních letech objevuje nejen kritika, ale také pokusy, resp. návrhy, jak a čím dolar nahradit. Hned na první summitu zemí BRICS v roce 2009 se zmínil ruský návrh obnovy zlatého standardu. Ten by dával smysl leda tak právě pro Rusko s jeho obrovskými zlatými zásobami, ale světově se jedná o pokus dále deflačně zatížit ekonomiku. Guvernér čínské národní banky Čou ve svém slavném článku „Reform the international monetary system“ dal jasně najevo, že kdyby byl býval na bretton-woodské konferenci v roce 1944 vyhrál Keynesův návrh (za geniální je mnohými považován ještě dnes), byla by bývala situace o poznání lepší.

Jenže uvést v život Keynesův návrh skutečně globální měny – bancor – je bez globální koordinace poněkud obtížné. A vytvořit konkurenci pro dolar je rovněž nelehký úkol. Zvažme totiž, čím se vyznačuje taková internacionální měna, a které charakteristiky tedy dolar splňuje.

I když definic najdeme celou řadu, celkově se budou shodovat, že „pravá“ internacionální měna je hlavní měnou finančních trhů, používá se intenzivně v mezinárodním obchodě, funguje jako primární, sekundární i zavěšovací měna v jiných (nerezidentských) zemích, kotují se v ní ceny primárních komodit (tj. především ropa a návazně i ostatní) a je to měna rezervní. Americký ekonom a expert na mezinárodní měnové systémy Barry Eichengreen v nedávném článku pro Wall Street Journal uvádí, že dolar je zastoupen v devizových transakcích z 85 procent (hlavní obchodní pár samozřejmě dolar – euro), 60 procent obligací je nenominováno v dolarech a rovněž tak 60 procent světových devizových rezerv (což je ovšem z dlouhodobého hlediska pokles a to především kvůli euru). Studie WTO uvádí, že i většina amerických větších bankovek obíhá mimo území Spojených států. Důležité je rovněž, že pro dolar hraje roli určitá setrvačnost v používání.

Soupeř z Číny

A tím se dostáváme k možným alternativám. Nikoliv pouze Eichengreen přiznává, že pozice dolaru je tak silná také proto, že nemá žádnou relevantní konkurenci. Pro Francii možná euro mělo takové ambice, ale ECB je nejspíše nesdílí. Eurozóna má dost problémů sama se sebou, natož pak aby se starala o silnější globální podporu eura. Působení eura je skutečně spíše regionální a v nejbližších letech, pokud vůbec někdy, se těžko stane dolaru vážným vyzyvatelem.

Jedna měna, jejíž potenciál bezesporu není plně využit, by tu ovšem byla. Není to ovšem ruský rubl, ale čínský jüan. Zmíněná analýza WTO uvádí disproporci mezi pozicí Číny v mezinárodním obchodě a rozšířením čínského jüanu ve finančních transakcích.

Překážkou není slabá pozice v mezinárodní dělbě práce, ale regulace. Čína je ve věcech liberalizace finančního trhu celkově velice opatrná (a není divu). Proto používá pro testování Hong Kong a podobně jako při jiných příležitostech si ověřuje, jestli by jüan do budoucna mohl hrát významnější roli. Provádí tak de facto „outsourcing internacionalizace jüanu.“

Již od minulého summitu zemí BRICS se diskutuje nejen o založení vlastní banky, ale také o využívání čínského jüanu pro vzájemné vazby uvnitř skupiny. Hodně bude záležet na tom, zda skupina BRICS ustojí své ekonomické i geopolitické problémy, včetně samotné Číny, a jak se budou rozvíjet jejich vzájemné vztahy. Spolupráce mezi Ruskem a Čínou probíhá nepochybně velice intenzivně, a to na mnoha úrovních. K tomu, aby se jüan stal skutečnou internacionální měnou, a mohl tak být, třeba v rámci BRICS, vyzyvatelem dolaru, je ovšem ještě dlouhá cesta.

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  • Rickwand 04.05.2014 9:23

    Myslím,že pro USA je to dramatičtější,než to píšete.Seskupení obyvatel planety,kolem Ruska a Číny je už teď 40% A další se chtějí přidat.Jste Pane mimo mísu,to by Vám už nesežral ani ten pitomý černoch,co se tváří,že je prezident.

  • Peter G 06.05.2014 16:50

    Americký dolár je svetovou rezervnou menou a ide cez neho väčšina medzinárodného obchodu. USA je jediná superveľmoc, ktorá pod kontrolou aj najväčšie kapitálové toky spolu s partnermi s EU. BRICS sú nejednotný, Čína a India nie sú žiadni “milenci”. Stačí sa pozrieť na trojuholník Čína-India-Pakistan. Brazília má úzke ekonomické vzťahy s Čínou, ale čo Rusko, alebo India? Kríza na EM začiatkom roka bola len malou ukážkou, čo sa stane ak od BRICS začne odlievať kapitál, ktorý tam investovali vyspelé ekonomiky. Dolár bude zatvárať lokál ešte najbližšiu dekádu.

  • Přihořívá | pro investory 13.05.2014 23:29

    [...] že nedodajú raketové motory alebo iné kozmetické protiopatrenia. Hovorím tu o odpálení možno hlavného piliera moci USA US$ a to by mal podobný účinok ako masívny odpredaj US dlhopisov (možno ani prstom nemusia [...]

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  • Buddy 09.02.2017 11:26

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