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Začátek nové Velké hry

V současnosti jsme svědky mocenského přeskupování, které se na první pohled projevuje v oblasti obchodu a investic. Nová Velká hra – soupeření velmocí – je mimo jiné charakteristické tím, jak pasivní roli hraje EU, která chtě nechtě připomíná spíše kořist, než skutečného aktéra.

To, že dochází k mocenským přesunům, bylo jasné už nějakou dobu, ale akronym BRIC tomu dodal i důraz, první setkání skupiny v roce 2009 i politickou tvář. Setkání bylo vyvoláno krizí, která vznikla ve Spojených státech a nejvíce zasáhla právě tzv. Západ.

Navíc si uvědomme, že se nedaří uzavřít kolo jednání Světové obchodní organizace. Přeloženo – nedaří se najít multilaterální shodu. Místo toho začal být systém zaplevelován množství bilaterálních dohod o zónách volného obchodu. Ale nyní jsme před dalším zlomovým okamžikem – vytvářejí se bloky, založené zdánlivě jen na obchodní a investiční aktivitě, ale jejich skutečným pohonem je geopolitika.

Nás se přímo nejvíce týká TTIP – neboli Transatlantická dohoda, kterou EU navrhly Spojené státy. Není divu, že vzbuzuje velké obavy a značnou kritiku. Dohoda se nemá týkat jen obchodu, ale také investic. Obchod je volný už nyní (WTO), argument o snížení celních sazeb neobstojí. Proto tolik obav – hlavním cílem dohody by se pak staly nutně netarifní překážky.

Zde je zakopaný první pes – EU má podstatně vyšší standardy než Spojené státy, od sociálních (práva zaměstnanců) po ekologické (např. geneticky modifikované potraviny). Pokud jsou to Spojené státy, kdo tak tlačí na to, aby se dohoda uzavřela, nejde náhodou o další kolo závodu ke dnu? Neboť očekávat, že USA touží po vyšších evropských standardech, by asi bylo poněkud naivní.

Velké obavy vzbuzuje doložka týkající se arbitráže mezi soukromými investory a státem. To je druhý zakopaný pes. Zkušenosti ze světa jsou známé, bohužel. Případ žalob stále stoupá a soukromí investoři jsou v jedné třetině případů vítězi těchto prazvláštních, často utajovaných řízení před veřejností. Střetává se zde veřejný zájem, který ale může „ohrozit“ privátní zisk.

Těžko najít lepší vyjádření síly privátního kapitálu oproti veřejnému zájmu zastupovaném státem. Nestačí už investiční pobídky, daňové ráje… . Soukromý kapitál si zajistí i právní podmínky přesně na míru, aby mu to neohrožovalo podnikání. Veřejnost smí zaplatit prohranou arbitráž. Příklady ze Severoamerické zóny volného obchodu, která je určitým předvojem TTIP, ukazují, že pokus vlády o navýšení ekologických standardů může skončit v prohrané žalobě.

Pohled na jednání TPP, které se pro změnu týká Pacifiku, nám ukáže hlubší smysl dohody, než „jen“ prospěch pro americké korporace. Transatlantická dohody spojuje USA a EU, TPP pak země, které v poslední době intenzivněji kooperovaly s Čínou a zároveň tvoří kolem Číny pás – mimo jiné Japonsko, či Austrálie.

Není to poprvé, kdy se Spojené státy snaží vytvořit rozsáhlé území pod pravidly, která budou vyhovovat americkým firmám (nikoliv nutně běžným Američanům). Kromě NAFTA to byl pokus o celoamerickou zónu volného obchodu. Tam ale USA narazily na odpor Huga Cháveze, ke kterému se přidal i brazilský prezident Lula da Silva a společně dohodu pohřbily. Ale nyní se nám zjevují USA s „přáteli“ na obou stranách svého území. Jen zběžný pohled na mapu nám ukáže, že hlavním cílem těchto dohod je obklíčit a zpomalit rozvoj Ruska a Číny. Ani jedna z obou zemí se na to ale nedívá se složenýma rukama.

Rusko ještě před návrhem TTIP oslovilo Evropu. V roce 2010 V. Putin, tehdy jako premiér, navštívil Německo a předložil veliký projekt spolupráce EU a Ruské federace. Jeho slovy projekt zóny „harmonického ekonomického společenství sahajícího od Lisabonu po Vladivostok“.  Kooperace by zahrnovala mnoho oblastí, od spolupráce v průmyslu (vhodné především pro Rusko) po energetiku či vědu a výzkum.

Návrh ovšem dostal od německé kancléřky doslova studenou sprchu. Přestože jsou ekonomiky Ruska a EU do značné míry kompatibilní a další spolupráce (byť ne hned v poněkud megalomanském ruském pojetí) by dávala i svůj historicko-kulturní smysl, EU si řešila své vnitřní problémy s dluhovou krizí a Rusko velmi neprozřetelně odkopla.

Následně se začal materializovat projekt, který logicky není vnímán vůči EU, či snad vůči Západu jako takovému, přátelsky – Euroasijská unie. Je ekonomicky podstatně menší, zahrnuje vlastně jen Rusko jako dominanta a některé země bývalého SSSR (Bělorusko, Kazachstán…). Některé země mají rivalitní charakter, např. důraz na suroviny (Rusko – Kazachstán) a jeho čistě ekonomický přínos je dosti sporný. Je totiž namířen primárně dovnitř jako zakotvení konzervativních a cezaropapistických tendencí.

Je snad v zájmu EU takovýto projekt? Na rozdíl od USA, EU má s Ruskem vazby (nejen ekonomické), a vyhrocení vztahů, jak se snad již ukazuje, s touto euroasijskou zemí, je absolutně proti jejím zájmům. Je opravdu škoda, že v EU nenajdeme mnoho skutečných vizionářů, kteří umějí uvažovat v delších časových horizontech. Zato užitečných idiotů najdeme bohužel dost.

Čína se obrátila ke svým hlubokým tradicím a oživuje projekt Hedvábné stezky. Je pravda, že tento projekt chtěly poněkud „modifikovat“ Spojené státy, které preferovaly základnu stezky v Afghanistánu – což by jim v jejich očích zřejmě zaručilo dlouhodobé pobývání v centrální Asii, které je tolik trnem v oku Šanghajské organizaci spolupráce.

Čína ovšem hravě přebije finanční nabídky Spojených států. Ekonomický pás Hedvábné stezky se začal materializovat podpisy smluv na konci minulého roku. Čínský projekt je na rozdíl od (neo)liberálního TTIP, či konzervativní Euroasijské unie, bez ideologie a, jak ukazuje čínský vývoj posledních dekád, řízen čirým pragmatismem a určitou flexibilitou. Místo pravidel se Čína koncentruje na budování infrastruktury a velké investiční projekty. Původní návrh obchází Rusko (což není tak snadné) a vine se přes Kazachstán, do Iránu, Iráku, Sýrie, Turecka, na Balkán až do německého Duisburgu jako průmyslového srdce Evropy a dále do Rotterdamu.

Protože je Ekonomický pás pragmatický projekt, nevylučuje několik různých cest. Zásadní roli ve druhé z nich hraje Krym. Čína plánuje na Krymu velké investice, které Rusko velice vítá (Krym je zoufale podfinancován). Je to právě Krym, který spojil čínské a ruské zájmy a začlení tak Rusko do čínské vize spolupráce. Velká hra velmocí a jejich bloků opět začala.

V podobe skráteného komentára vyšiel článok aj v denníku Pravda.

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