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Lhaní o Krymu pokračuje

Ukrajinská vláda neví, zda se jí podaří dobýt východ Ukrajiny včas před referendem, které stoupenci federalizace plánují na 11. května. Možná i proto se teď v ukrajinských a následně i západníchčeských médiích vyrojily odkazy na dva týdny starou zprávu zpochybňující oficiální výsledky referenda na Krymu. Máme ji brát vážně?

propaganda

Dokument zpochybňuje výsledky hlasování, v němž se občané Krymu vyslovili pro připojení k Rusku. Byl zveřejněn na stránkách Rady při úřadu prezidenta Ruské federace pro rozvoj občanské společnosti a lidských práv. Zprávu však nevypracovali Putinovi poradci ani se nejedná o dokument celé Rady, jak tvrdí Lidovky (zpočátku v titulku ještě nesmyslněji uváděly, že ji vypracovali Putinovi úředníci). Vypracovali ji zaměstnanci ostře protiputinovské lidskoprávní organizace Memorial, která se minulý rok dostala do konfliktu s ruskými státními orgány kvůli financování z USA. Spolupodepsal ji pouze jeden z členů Rady, který v ní zasedá jako zástupce občanské společnosti, podobně jako v Radě vlády ČR pro lidská práva sedí třeba Jefim Fištejn (o němž by Lidovky stěží napsaly, že je to Zemanův nebo Sobotkův poradce). Protože zpráva neprošla žádným schvalovacím procesem, vydávat ji za stanovisko Rady, jak činí Lidové noviny nebo Forbes, je čirá manipulace.

Autoři zprávy navštívili ve dnech 15. až 18. dubna Krym a mluvili tam s blíže nespecifikovaným počtem nejmenovaných „expertů a občanů“. Podle nich je prý podpora připojení Krymu k Rusku výrazně nižší, než říkají oficiální výsledky referenda. Procenta uvedená ve zprávě odpovídají již dříve zveřejněným prohlášením některých představitelů krymských Tatarů. Tato spekulace se však opírá o pofiderní extrapolace založené na tvrzeních o volební účasti v předchozích volbách.

Je zvláštní, že média dávají tolik prostoru tvrzením založeným na pochybné anketě mezi několika nespecifikovanými jedinci, s nimiž lidskoprávní aktivisté vedli rozhovory. Oproti tomu skutečný průzkum veřejného mínění, realizovaný ukrajinskou pobočkou německé marketingové korporace GfK na reprezentativním vzorku šesti set občanů Krymu, zůstává před českými čtenáři utajen. O jeho existenci zřejmě nemá tušení ani Lidovými novinami citovaný politolog Michael Romancov. Možná je to proto, že výsledky tohoto průzkumu jsou v souladu s oficiálními výsledky referenda.

Omezování krymské autonomie

Nejsou však výsledky krymského referenda tak jako tak znehodnoceny neregulérnostmi, které jeho uspořádání provázely? K odpovědi na tuto otázku se pokusíme vypořádat se všemi námitkami uvedenými na serveru Demagog.cz, kde se zpochybňuje pravdivost Putinova výroku, že se 16. března na Krymu uskutečnilo „referendum, které proběhlo v plném souladu s demokratickými postupy a mezinárodně-právními normami“.

„Veškeré možnosti pro legální odštěpení Krymu byly postaveny mimo zákon, takže není těžké dovodit, že proběhlé referendum je z hlediska ukrajinských zákonů skutečně ilegální.“

První námitka zní takto: „Žádná z možností při hlasování neumožňovala zachování stavu před ruskou intervencí, tj. proukrajinskou volbu.“ Jaká je skutečnost? Referendum pro setrvání v rámci Ukrajiny hlasovat umožňovalo. Neumožňovalo pouze hlasovat pro zachování legislativních změn vnucených Krymu Kyjevem. Z tranzitivity preferencí vyplývá, že nikdo z těch, kdo hlasovali pro připojení k Rusku, by nehlasoval pro status quo. Nemožnost hlasovat pro status quo však nejspíše vedla ke zvýšení počtu lidí, kteří se referenda nezúčastnili vůbec. Volební neúčast však byla jen 17 procent, takže i kdyby všichni, kdo se referenda nezúčastnili, hlasovali pro status quo, stejně by to výsledek neovlivnilo. Ze zmíněného průzkumu GfK vyplývá, že i kdyby měli obyvatelé Krymu na výběr více variant, stejně by jich většina hlasovala pro připojení k Rusku.

Přesto je namístě položit si otázku, proč organizátoři referenda na lístcích onu třetí možnost neuvedli. Nabízí se dva důvody – jeden praktický a druhý psychologický. Z praktického hlediska by totiž referendum se třemi možnostmi muselo proběhnou dvoukolově, jinak by hrozilo, že výsledek nebude možné jednoznačně interpretovat. A jak je to s psychologickým důvodem? Je třeba vzít v potaz, že proruští iredentisté vnímali status quo po ukrajinském diktátu omezujícím krymskou autonomii jako ukrajinskou „okupaci“ Krymu a ústavu z roku 1992 jako poslední legitimní projev vůle krymských obyvatel. Například v roce 2007 uspořádali ruští iredentisté v Simferopolu happening nazvaný Muzeum ukrajinské okupace Krymu, na kterém bylo jedním z vystavených exponátů rádio s utrženou anténou, symbolizující rušení ruského vysílání na Krymu.

Stávající dění na Krymu nelze adekvátně posoudit, pokud nevezmeme v potaz, že ruský iredentismus má na Krymu dlouhou a pohnutou historii. Referendum o odtržení Krymu od Ukrajiny bylo orgány Krymské republiky původně plánováno na 2. srpen 1992. Kyjev konání referenda nepřipustil, nicméně krymské orgány konání referenda nezrušily, ale pouze „suspendovaly“. Právě proběhlé referendum je tak ruskými iredentisty vnímáno jako uskutečnění zakázaného referenda plánovaného na srpen 1992 – s tím, že nabízené možnosti odpovídají těm, které přicházely v úvahu v roce 1992, nikoli stavu před ruskou intervencí, který byl Krymu vnucen. Když totiž v roce 1993 hlasovalo 75 procent krymských voličů pro iredentistu Jurije Meškova a zvolilo jej do funkce prezidenta Krymské republiky, kyjevský parlament úřad krymského prezidenta po čase zrušil a omezil krymskou politickou i ekonomickou autonomii, zatímco bývalý prezident byl vyhnán do ruského exilu. Krymský parlament od té doby ztratil právo navrhovat zákony a volba krymského premiéra podléhá schválení ukrajinským prezidentem. Veškeré možnosti pro legální odštěpení Krymu byly postaveny mimo zákon, takže není těžké dovodit, že proběhlé referendum je z hlediska ukrajinských zákonů skutečně ilegální.

Objevuje se tvrzení, že volba vhazováním lístků bez obálky přímo do průhledných boxů je nepřípustnáObjevuje se tvrzení, že volba vhazováním lístků bez obálky přímo do průhledných boxů je nepřípustná

Pod ochranou milicí

Námitka druhá: „Vyvstávají také pochybnosti o nestrannosti při organizaci referenda a o možnosti opozice agitovat.“ Jaké pochybnosti? Samotná přítomnost okupačních jednotek není důvodem neplatnosti voleb. Příkladem jsou volby ve Východním Timoru nebo v Iráku. Neexistují žádné fotografie svědčící o tom, že by se ozbrojenci nacházeli přímo ve volebních místnostech nebo v jejich blízkosti, takže teze o „referendu pod hlavněmi pušek“ lze chápat jen jako básnickou hyperbolu. O tom, jak by snaha o uspořádání referenda dopadla bez přítomnosti ruských jednotek v regionu, se dnes můžeme přesvědčit na východě Ukrajiny. Nicméně okolnosti krymského referenda jsou problematické a referendu předcházely neregulérnosti, které však byly zrcadlovým obrazem neregulérností provázejících odstavení Janukovyče od moci v Kyjevě. Oba parlamenty jednaly pod „ochranou“ milicí, v Kyjevě vypnuli ruské televizní kanály, na Krymu ukrajinské. Z Kyjeva též pocházejí záběry napadání opozičních poslanců poslanci vládní ultrapravicové strany Svoboda.

Námitka třetí: „Ze strany Ruska se jednalo o porušení Budapešťského memoranda z roku 1994, v němž se Rusko spolu s dalšími zeměmi zavázalo k tomu, že výměnou za ukrajinské vzdání se jaderného arzenálu bude zajišťovat jeho bezpečnost a územní integritu.“ Ano, Rusko skutečně porušilo Budapešťské memorandum i Chartu OSN a dluží tedy Ukrajině satisfakci, ale z toho nemůže být dovozováno, že porušení mezinárodního práva Ruskem má být „kompenzováno“ odepřením práva na sebeurčení občanům Krymu. Rusko naopak z porušení Budapešťského memoranda obvinilo USA a Evropskou unii na základě jejich údajné role v ukrajinském převratu.

Čtvrtá námitka: „Referendum bylo svoláno na uzavřeném parlamentním setkání, na které ,dohlíželi‘ zahraniční ozbrojenci a ze kterého byly vyloučeni někteří opoziční poslanci.“ Podobně tomu ale bylo i v Kyjevě. Pro konání referenda hlasovalo 61 poslanců, přičemž krymský parlament jich má celkem sto. Spekuluje se o tom, zda všech 61 poslanců bylo skutečně přítomno hlasování, nicméně hlasování cizí kartou, pokud k němu na Krymu došlo, je bohužel na Ukrajině běžnou součástí parlamentní procedury. Občas dokonce hlasují i poslanci, kteří jsou již po smrti.

Respektujme vůli Krymčanů

Pátá námitka: „Příprava referenda probíhala pouze deset dní a podle Britů byla provázena řadou netransparentních procesů.“ Nelze se divit, že v situaci, kdy referendum bylo možné konat jen díky ochraně ruských jednotek, si s jeho konáním pospíšili.

Šestá námitka: „Otázky v referendu nebyly řádně vysvětleny a neprobíhala k nim žádná veřejná debata.“ Jenže obyvatelé Krymu vyjádřili vůli k připojení k Ruské federaci opakovaně. Reportéři České televize na Krymu, kteří nemohli zastřít skutečnost, že se jim nepodařilo najít prakticky nikoho, kdo by hlasoval proti připojení, se uchýlili k argumentu, že Krymčané byli dočasně zfanatizováni ruskou propagandou. Byli též zfanatizovaní v roce 1993, když drtivou většinou zvolili prezidentem iredentistu Meškova, který kandidoval za volební blok s dosti jednoznačným názvem Rusko? Byli Krymčané zfanatizováni v roce 1994, když jich 83 procent hlasovalo pro možnost dvojího občanství s Ruskem, což Kyjev opět nepřipustil? Podle právního experta OBSE, který měl dříve  na starost vyjednávání o Krymu, byla v minulosti hlavní překážkou přičlenění Krymu k Rusku neochota Ruska riskovat narušení vztahů s Ukrajinou. Tato překážka nyní pominula. Občané Krymu mají dost životních zkušeností na to, aby dokázali posoudit, zda si přejí nebo nepřejí připojení k Rusku.

Sedmá námitka: „Existují obavy, že docházelo k zastrašování voličů a manipulaci s výsledky.“ Jenže obavy nejsou důkazy. Bez konkrétních obvinění a důkazů je taková teze prostě irelevantní. Ve vypjaté atmosféře sice docházelo k potyčkám mezi demonstranty, zprávy o zastrašování voličů a manipulacích s výsledky jsem však nezaznamenal.

Předposlední námitka: „Jednalo se o zřejmé porušení ukrajinské ústavy.“ Ano. Nicméně o souladu či nesouladu s ukrajinskou ústavou a právním řádem se Putin nezmiňuje. Lubomír Zaorálek ostatně komentoval neústavní způsob sesazení Janukovyče tím, že v revoluční situaci nemůže být všechno přesně podle ústavy. Nuže, ani jednostranné odtrhávání se iredentistických enkláv nemůže být přesně podle ústavy.

A konečně závěrečná námitka: „Z těchto důvodů nelze považovat krymské referendum za plně v souladu s demokratickými postupy a mezinárodně-právními normami.“ Mezinárodní právo jednostranná vyhlášení samostatnosti neřeší, takže krymské referendum samo o sobě nemohlo být v rozporu s mezinárodním právem. Otázkou je, zda referendum bylo v souladu s demokratickými postupy, tedy jestli je míra neregulérností taková, aby proběhlé referendum bylo horší než referendum žádné, protože Kyjevem zakázané. Vše nasvědčuje tomu, že výrazná většina občanů Krymu si skutečně přeje připojení k Rusku, a uskutečnění referenda se tedy jeví být více v souladu s demokratickými principy než jeho zákaz. To ale neznamená, že do rozhodování nemají vstupovat jiné ohledy – například obava z destabilizace v jiných zemích se separatistickými enklávami, a to včetně Ruska, které teď bude jen obtížně vysvětlovat upírání práva na sebeurčení Čečencům. To ale není předmětem otázky o demokratičnosti samotného referenda.

Kromě výše uvedených námitek se též objevuje tvrzení, že volba vhazováním lístků bez obálky přímo do průhledných boxů je nepřípustná. Problém této argumentace je v tom, že takto se na Ukrajině volilo vždy, tedy i ve volbách, které OBSE označila za proběhlé v souladu s evropskými standardy. Předpokládám, že pro Krym neplatí jiné evrpské standardy než pro zbytek Ukrajiny. Pokud uznáváme legitimitu nové ukrajinské vlády, měli bychom uznat i legitimitu krymského referenda.

Autor je ekonom a doktorand na Yale University.

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