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Proč nevstupovat do Eurozóny – lekce pro Českou republiku

Na blogu Kritická ekonómia se nedávno objevil článek týkající se debaty o euru v  České republice. V  článku jsem zařazena do kolonky „kritický intelektuál“, ovšem můj dlouhodobý negativní postoj k  euru byl překroucen k  neuvěření. Jde mi údajně o to, aby se i ČR mohla zapojit do měnové války a používat kompetitivní devalvace – tedy umělé podhodnocení měny nechvalně proslulé už z  doby Velké deprese.

Nic není dále od pravdy. Dlouhodobě upozorňuji na neudržitelnost strategie podhodnocování měny a růstu pomocí čistého exportu. Kritických příspěvků na měnové války by se u mě našlo také dost. Nemluvě o tom, že rozhodnutí České národní banky oslabit českou korunu vůči euru k  hranici 27 Kč za euro považuji za zásadně chybné. Je to opakování politiky počátku 90. let, cesta konkurování cenou, která nás posunuje spíše k  rozvojovým zemím, fixuje strukturu ekonomiky založenou na nízkých mzdách.

Nevím, čím jsem si zasloužila takové tvrzení, které je v  absolutním rozporu s  tím, o čem dlouhodobě píšu. Přesto, či právě proto patřím k  odpůrcům zavedení eura v  ČR.

To, že nelze používat kurzový kanál, je totiž odlišné od používání kompetitivní devalvace. Směšovat obojí je nepochopení kurzového nástroje a toho, že země bez vlastní měnové suverenity a v  situaci velmi nedokonalé Eurozóny, je dále nucená jít bolestivou cestou interní devalvace. A jaké to má dopady vidíme v  Řecku více než dobře.

Přesto se stále hovoří o „reformách“ – k  jakým ale doopravdy došlo? Cožpak lze masivní chudobu, dlouhodobou nezaměstnanost a propad ekonomiky o více než čtvrtinu (tj. horší než za Velké deprese u Spojených států) považovat za „reformy“? V  čem se zlepšila struktura řecké ekonomiky? Došlo snad k  narovnání daňového mixu a lepšímu daňovému výběru? K  tomu se hlásí až nová vláda Syrizy. Pro ty předchozí bylo snazší – a mezinárodně Trojkou podporované – zbídačovat obyvatelstvo a ukotvit se v  trvalé stagnaci. Bolest pro bolest, v  kombinaci s  ekonomickou iracionalitou, které v  rámci Eurozóny vévodí německé postoje.

Nemá smysl sepisovat seznam, kdo všechno kritizuje německou politiku orientovanou na vytváření čím dál větších (již 2,5x větší než Čína!) přebytků obchodní bilance. Joseph Stiglitz na ekonomickém fóru v  Říme s  ironií sobě vlastní konstatoval, jak si Eurozóna politikou škrtů ničí svůj budoucí potenciál.

Současná Eurozóna je založena na směsi nesmyslné politiky, která nemůže a nebude fungovat. Neřeší se totiž příčina chybného fungování Eurozóny: odlišná struktura jednotlivých ekonomik ve spojení s  tím, že nástroje na dohánění (tj. strukturální změnu) jsou významně omezeny. Strukturálně slabší země se tak mohou do Eurozóny integrovat jen na bázi dlouhodobé stagnace.

Můžete jistě namítnout, že Česká republika má jinou, silně průmyslovou strukturu a nenalézá se geograficky na periferii EU, ale hned vedle Německa. Ale i ČR má velkou potřebu změny a podobně jako Slovensko a další země střední Evropy ho trápí vysoký odliv zisků ze země. Zdroje následně chybí pro investice, pro mzdy. Značný vliv nadnárodních korporací (extrémní ve finančnictví) fixuje ekonomiky ve stádiu kolonie západních zemí. Společná měna není neutrálním nástrojem blaha. Místo toho se stala nástrojem ekonomické dominance Německa, které vyhovují německým kapitálovým elitám. Politickou ekonomii můžeme ignorovat, ale to neznamená, že bude ignorovat ona nás.

Eurozóna potřebuje základní změnu, která ale nebude vyhovovat mocným aktérům. Srovnejme pokrok činěný v  souvislosti s  přísností veřejných výdajů a na druhé straně slaďování daní, resp. v  první fázi existenci daňových rájů uvnitř (!) Eurozóny. J. C. Juncker, který pomáhal Lucembursko přetvořit ve specifický daňový ráj, je předsedou Evropské komise. Evropská solidarita se plně projevuje především u elit, zatímco ti ostatní „smí“ nést náklady.

Eurozóna je nestabilní a velmi nedokonalou hospodářskou a měnovou unií. Případ Řecka a především aktuální snaha Syrizy by měla být velkým varováním – ale poněkud jinak, než se obvykle myslí. Ukazuje limity možnosti aplikovat v  pravdě rozvojovou politiku pro zemi, která to zoufale potřebuje. Česká republika potřebuje podobně jako Slovensko a další země národní ekonomické struktury a co největší manévrovací prostor pro hospodářskou politiku.

Představitelé ČR si sami – snad z  ekonomické hlouposti – omezují prostor tím, že přijímají procyklickou finanční ústavu, která s  největší pravděpodobností skončí jako „fiscal cliff“ u Spojených států, tedy jako nástroj tlaku na vládu na snižování sociálních výdajů „výměnou“ za opakované navýšení dluhové hranice. Přijímat euro za současné situace v  Eurozóně znamená vlamovat se do rozpadajícího se domu, kde vládne ledacos, jen ne solidarita a rozumná ekonomická politika.

Skrátená verzia vychádza v denníku Pravda.

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Komentáre (35)

  • Jozef 19.04.2015 18:24

    Slovensko by malo vystúpiť z Eurozóny

  • Kurz vojna? | Blog JeToTak.sk 23.04.2015 14:39

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  • Wilfred 13.02.2017 21:39

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